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应用灰色预测理论对我国火灾事故四项指标进行预测研究。以2001-2008年的火灾统计数据为原始数据序列,分别建立GM(1,1)预测模型和中心逼近式GM(1,1)预测模型,并对原始数据进行拟合分析以评估模型精度;利用这两个预测模型对2009、2010年的火灾事故数据进行预测,并与实际值比较分析。结果表明,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型的拟合精度及预测精度均高于传统GM(1,1)模型,但这两个模型不适用于火灾事故直接经济损失的预测,其余三项指标的中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型的预测精度能够达到一级。 相似文献
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半数亡人火灾发生在县城集镇
2010年,广东省县城集镇发生火灾2431起,死亡52人,受伤29人,直接财产损失7902.3万元,火灾起数占全年的三分之一,死亡、受伤人数和火灾损失约占全年的一半;城市发生火灾1789起,死亡29人,受伤12人,直接财产损失2646.5万元,与2009年相比,起数和损失分别上升33.4%和38.9%,亡人、伤人数分别下降3.3%和25%。全年发生的10起较大火灾中,有7起发生在县城集镇。 相似文献
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《新安全 东方消防》2014,(6)
<正>5月份,上海共发生火灾358起,死亡5人,受伤5人,直接经济损失822.8万元,未发生较大及以上火灾。同比,火灾起数下降56.9%,死亡人数增加3人,受伤人数增加4人,直接经济损失上升1.7%;环比,火灾起数下降26.2%,死亡人数持平,受伤人数增加1人,直接经济损失上升346.4%。其间,公安消防部队共接处警8107起,抢救、疏散被困人员1529人,保护财产价值1.4亿元。 相似文献
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《新安全 东方消防》2014,(9)
<正>7月份,上海市共发生火灾417起,死亡3人,受伤6人,直接经济损失128.8万元,未发生较大及以上火灾。同比,火灾起数下降61.9%,死亡人数减少4人,受伤人数减少7人,直接经济损失下降95.6%;环比,火灾起数上升16.1%,死亡人数持平,受伤人数增加5人,直接经济损失下降22.5%。期间,公安消防部队共接处警8052起,抢救、疏散被困人员1155人,保护经济价值1.7亿元。7月,全国学生运动会、国际少年儿童艺术节消防安保圆满完成,火灾形势平稳。"小火亡人"事故多发,受害者以弱势 相似文献
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今年1—6月,全省已发生火灾963起,死亡79人,受伤158人,直接财产损失折款6086.3万元。与去年同期相比,火灾起数、死亡人数分别下降11.4%和6.6%直接财产损失、受伤人数分别上升8%和19.7%。上半年全省火灾主要有以下特点: 1、特大火灾上升幅度较大。上半年共发生14起,损失2137.2万元,与去年同期相比,火灾起数、损失分别上升55.6%和17.6%。其中温州市发生6起,损失962.7万元,起数和损失 相似文献
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Larry W. Masters 《Building Research & Information》2013,41(1-6):292-296
A joint committee of CIB and RILEM has produced a report which analyses the shortcomings of much ‘durability’ testing, identifies the problems facing reliable service life prediction, offers a methodology for approaching those problems and lists the key research needs. The report is reviewed here by the committee co‐ordinator, who also gives his version of the ‘Ten Commandments’ for service life prediction. 相似文献
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《Planning》2018,(8):102-104
企业经营风险预测对于判断企业的经营状况,指导企业的进一步行为具有实际意义。然而,对于大量的小微型企业来说,一般很难获得这些企业的真实财务信息,也缺乏全面的信用信息供参考。文章以企业主体在多方面留下的行为足迹信息构建训练集,基于不同的足迹行为数据分别使用eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)算法构建预测模型,并使用线性加权融合多个模型,以企业在未来两年是否会退出市场为目标变量进行预测。结果表明,在现有数据的基础上,该模型可以有效预测企业的经营风险,相比于传统的方法,精度更高。 相似文献
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Fangfang Song Jinping Ou 《Frontiers of Architecture and Civil Engineering in China》2010,4(3):326-330
Windborne debris is one of the most important causes of the envelop destruction according to the post-damage investigations.
The problem of windborne debris damage could be summarized as three parts, including windborne debris risk analysis, debris
flying trajectories, and impact resistance of envelope analysis. The method of debris distribution is developed. The flying
trajectories of compact and plate-like debris are solved by using a numerical method according to the different aerodynamic
characteristics. The impact resistance of the envelopes is also analyzed. Besides, the process of windborne debris damage
analysis is described in detail. An example of industrial building is given to demonstrate the whole method by using the observed
data of typhoon Chanchu (2006). The method developed in this paper could be applied to risk assessment of windborne debris
for structures in wind hazard. 相似文献
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Quality prediction for concrete manufacturing 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
James Liu 《Automation in Construction》1997,5(6):491-499
The problem of extracting information from several sources of information is a very important issue in intelligent systems. In the field of manufacturing concrete — one of the most common construction materials — in Hong Kong, this problem is quite common. There is no direct formulation of concrete mix for specified properties, and all of the mixes are designed by experience and subject to quality inconsistency due to many possible mixing variations. This paper describes an application of neural network techniques to the acquisition of qualitative knowledge during the production of concrete. It shows the capabilities of the developed model for the analysis and representation of production data and prediction of the quality of concrete under different mixing formulations. The simulation results indicate that the neural network's prediction is generally superior to those of conventional methods which often require time-consuming trial mixes for verifying the specified properties before mass production for use. 相似文献
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The basic routes leading to product formation in fires are identified and involve the thermal and thermal oxidative decomposition of the polymeric material. These products are released into the relatively mobile atmosphere of the fire where further decomposition or combustion takes place.These processes are studied at the Fire Research Station, Borehamwood, using single and two stage decomposition systems with GC-MS analysis of the products, combustion studies with a special burner system and full-scale fires.Experiments with flexible polyester and polyether foams show that the decomposition proceeds by the low temperature elimination (200° to 300°) of a nitrogen-rich material in the form of a particulate smoke which appears to be polymeric form of TDI. The smoke decomposes at high temperatures (above about 800°C) to produce a range of nitrogen-containing materials of low molecular weight and particularly hydrogen cyanide. At these high temperatures, carbon monoxide is a significant decomposition product from the polyol part of the foams.Studies of the relative yields of hydrogen cyanide and carbon monoxide in a single-stage decomposition give yields of 55 and 400 mg/g, respectively, at 1000°C.A two-stage decomposition with foam at 300°C and a secondary zone at 1000°C is necessary to simulate the relative yields of hydrogen cyanide and carbon monoxide found in fires. In this way experimental yields of hydrogen cyanide and carbon monoxide of 55 and 80 mg/g, respectively, have been obtained consistent with the relative amounts observed during the early stages of a large fire.Some recent work involving studies of the thermal decomposition of rigid polyurethane foams and the release of hydrogen cyanide is given. 相似文献