Data‐driven adaptive nested robust optimization: General modeling framework and efficient computational algorithm for decision making under uncertainty

A novel data‐driven adaptive robust optimization framework that leverages big data in process industries is proposed. A Bayesian nonparametric model—the Dirichlet process mixture model—is adopted and combined with a variational inference algorithm to extract the information embedded within uncertainty data. Further a data‐driven approach for defining uncertainty set is proposed. This machine‐learning model is seamlessly integrated with adaptive robust optimization approach through a novel four‐level optimization framework. This framework explicitly accounts for the correlation, asymmetry and multimode of uncertainty data, so it generates less conservative solutions. Additionally, the proposed framework is robust not only to parameter variations, but also to anomalous measurements. Because the resulting multilevel optimization problem cannot be solved directly by any off‐the‐shelf solvers, an efficient column‐and‐constraint generation algorithm is proposed to address the computational challenge. Two industrial applications on batch process scheduling and on process network planning are presented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed modeling framework and effectiveness of the solution algorithm. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 63: 3790–3817, 2017     

A computational framework and solution algorithms for two‐stage adaptive robust scheduling of batch manufacturing processes under uncertainty

A novel two‐stage adaptive robust optimization (ARO) approach to production scheduling of batch processes under uncertainty is proposed. We first reformulate the deterministic mixed‐integer linear programming model of batch scheduling into a two‐stage optimization problem. Symmetric uncertainty sets are then introduced to confine the uncertain parameters, and budgets of uncertainty are used to adjust the degree of conservatism. We then apply both the Benders decomposition algorithm and the column‐and‐constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm to efficiently solve the resulting two‐stage ARO problem, which cannot be tackled directly by any existing optimization solvers. Two case studies are considered to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed modeling framework and solution algorithms. The results show that the C&CG algorithm is more computationally efficient than the Benders decomposition algorithm, and the proposed two‐stage ARO approach returns 9% higher profits than the conventional robust optimization approach for batch scheduling. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 62: 687–703, 2016     

Theoretical and computational comparison of continuous‐time process scheduling models for adjustable robust optimization

Coping with uncertainty in system parameters is a prominent hurdle when scheduling multi‐purpose batch plants. In this context, our previously introduced multi‐stage adjustable robust optimization (ARO) framework has been shown to obtain more profitable solutions, while maintaining the same level of immunity against risk, as compared to traditional robust optimization approaches. This paper investigates the amenability of existing deterministic continuous‐time scheduling models to serve as the basis of this ARO framework. A comprehensive computational study is conducted that compares the numerical tractability of various models across a suite of literature benchmark instances and a wide range of uncertainty sets. This study also provides, for the first time in the open literature, robust optimal solutions to process scheduling instances that involve uncertainty in production yields. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 64: 3055–3070, 2018     

Operational optimization of industrial steam systems under uncertainty using data-Driven adaptive robust optimization

This article addresses the operational optimization of industrial steam systems under device efficiency uncertainty using a data-driven adaptive robust optimization approach. A semiempirical model of steam turbine is first developed based on process mechanism and operational data. Uncertain parameters of the proposed steam turbine model are further derived from the historical process data. A robust kernel density estimation method is then used to construct the uncertainty sets for modeling these uncertain parameters. The data-driven uncertainty sets are incorporated into a two-stage adaptive robust mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework for operational optimization of steam systems to minimize the total operating cost. Integer variables are introduced to model the on/off decisions of the steam turbines and electrical motors, which are the major energy consumers of the steam system. By applying the affine decision rule, the proposed multilevel optimization model is transformed into its robust counterpart, which is a single-level MILP problem. The proposed framework is applied to the steam system of a real-world ethylene plant to demonstrate its applicability. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 65: e16500 2019     

Multistage adaptive stochastic mixed integer optimization under endogenous and exogenous uncertainty

To solve multistage adaptive stochastic optimization problems under both endogenous and exogenous uncertainty, a novel solution framework based on robust optimization technique is proposed. The endogenous uncertainty is modeled as scenarios based on an uncertainty set partitioning method. For each scenario, the adaptive binary decision is assumed constant and the continuous variable is approximated by a function linearly dependent on endogenous uncertain parameters. The exogenous uncertainty is modeled using lifting methods. The adaptive decisions are approximated using affine functions of the lifted uncertain parameters. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a number of numerical examples of different complexity are studied and a case study for infrastructure and production planning of shale gas field development are presented. The results show that the proposed framework can effectively solve multistage adaptive stochastic optimization problems under both types of uncertainty.     

Nonlinear robust optimization for process design

A novel robust optimization framework is proposed to address general nonlinear problems in process design. Local linearization is taken with respect to the uncertain parameters around multiple realizations of the uncertainty, and an iterative algorithm is implemented to solve the problem. Furthermore, the proposed methodology can handle different categories of problems according to the complexity of the problems. First, inequality‐only constrained optimization problem as studied in most existing robust optimization methods can be addressed. Second, the proposed framework can deal with problems with equality constraint associated with uncertain parameters. In the final case, we investigate problems with operation variables which can be adjusted according to the realizations of uncertainty. A local affinely adjustable decision rule is adopted for the operation variables (i.e., an affine function of the uncertain parameter). Different applications corresponding to different classes of problems are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed nonlinear robust optimization framework. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 64: 481–494, 2018     

A unified framework for adjustable robust optimization with endogenous uncertainty

This work proposes a framework for multistage adjustable robust optimization that unifies the treatment of three different types of endogenous uncertainty, where decisions, respectively, (a) alter the uncertainty set, (b) affect the materialization of uncertain parameters, and (c) determine the time when the true values of uncertain parameters are observed. We provide a systematic analysis of the different types of endogenous uncertainty and highlight the connection between optimization under endogenous uncertainty and active learning. We consider decision-dependent polyhedral uncertainty sets and propose a decision rule approach that incorporates both continuous and binary recourse, including recourse decisions that affect the uncertainty set. The proposed method enables the modeling of decision-dependent nonanticipativity and results in a tractable reformulation of the problem. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in computational experiments that cover a wide range of applications. The results show significant benefits from proper modeling of endogenous uncertainty and active learning.     

Multi‐stage adjustable robust optimization for process scheduling under uncertainty

Variations in parameters such as processing times, yields, and availability of materials and utilities can have a detrimental effect in the optimality and/or feasibility of an otherwise “optimal” production schedule. In this article, we propose a multi‐stage adjustable robust optimization approach to alleviate the risk from such operational uncertainties during scheduling decisions. We derive a novel robust counterpart of a deterministic scheduling model, and we show how to obey the observability and non‐anticipativity restrictions that are necessary for the resulting solution policy to be implementable in practice. We also develop decision‐dependent uncertainty sets to model the endogenous uncertainty that is inherently present in process scheduling applications. A computational study reveals that, given a chosen level of robustness, adjusting decisions to past parameter realizations leads to significant improvements, both in terms of worst‐case objective as well as objective in expectation, compared to the traditional robust scheduling approaches. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 62: 1646–1667, 2016     

Stem cell biomanufacturing under uncertainty: A case study in optimizing red blood cell production

As breakthrough cellular therapy discoveries are translated into reliable, commercializable applications, effective stem cell biomanufacturing requires systematically developing and optimizing bioprocess design and operation. This article proposes a rigorous computational framework for stem cell biomanufacturing under uncertainty. Our mathematical tool kit incorporates: high‐fidelity modeling, single variate and multivariate sensitivity analysis, global topological superstructure optimization, and robust optimization. The advantages of the proposed bioprocess optimization framework using, as a case study, a dual hollow fiber bioreactor producing red blood cells from progenitor cells were quantitatively demonstrated. The optimization phase reduces the cost by a factor of 4, and the price of insuring process performance against uncertainty is approximately 15% over the nominal optimal solution. Mathematical modeling and optimization can guide decision making; the possible commercial impact of this cellular therapy using the disruptive technology paradigm was quantitatively evaluated. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 64: 3011–3022, 2018     

Multistage distributionally robust optimization for integrated production and maintenance scheduling

In chemical manufacturing processes, equipment degradation can have a significant impact on process performance or cause unit failures that result in considerable downtime. Hence, maintenance planning is an important consideration, and there have been increased efforts in scheduling production and maintenance operations jointly. In this context, one major challenge is the inherent uncertainty in predictive equipment health models. In particular, the probability distribution associated with the stochasticity in such models is often difficult to estimate and hence not known exactly. In this work, we apply a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach to address this problem. Specifically, the proposed formulation optimizes the worst-case expected outcome with respect to a Wasserstein ambiguity set, and we apply a decision rule approach that allows multistage mixed-integer recourse. Computational experiments, including a real-world industrial case study, are conducted, where the results demonstrate the significant benefits from binary recourse and DRO in terms of solution quality.     

Resilient supply chain design and operations with decision-dependent uncertainty using a data-driven robust optimization approach

To addresses the design and operations of resilient supply chains under uncertain disruptions, a general framework is proposed for resilient supply chain optimization, including a quantitative measure of resilience and a holistic biobjective two-stage adaptive robust fractional programming model with decision-dependent uncertainty set for simultaneously optimizing both the economic objective and the resilience objective of supply chains. The decision-dependent uncertainty set ensures that the uncertain parameters (e.g., the remaining production capacities of facilities after disruptions) are dependent on first-stage decisions, including facility location decisions and production capacity decisions. A data-driven method is used to construct the uncertainty set to fully extract information from historical data. Moreover, the proposed model takes the time delay between disruptions and recovery into consideration. To tackle the computational challenge of solving the resulting multilevel optimization problem, two solution strategies are proposed. The applicability of the proposed approach is illustrated through applications on a location-transportation problem and on a spatially-explicit biofuel supply chain optimization problem. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 65: 1006–1021, 2019     

Distributionally robust chance-constrained optimization with Sinkhorn ambiguity set

A novel distributionally robust chance-constrained optimization (DRCCP) method is proposed in this work based on the Sinkhorn ambiguity set. The Sinkhorn ambiguity set is constructed based on the Sinkhorn distance, which is a variant of the Wasserstein distance with the entropic regularization. The proposed method can hedge against more general families of uncertainty distributions than the Wasserstein ambiguity set-based methods. The presented approach is formulated as a tractable conic model based on the Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) approximation and the discretized kernel distribution relaxation. This model is compatible with more general constraints that are subject to uncertainty than the Wasserstein-based methods. Accordingly, the presented Sinkhorn DRCCP is a more practical approach that overcomes the limitations of the traditional Wasserstein DRCCP approaches. A numerical example and a nonlinear chemical process optimization case are studied to demonstrate the efficacy of the Sinkhorn DRCCP and its advantages over the Wasserstein DRCCP.     

Multistage adaptive optimization using hybrid scenario and decision rule formulation

Scenario-based stochastic programming and linear decision rule (LDR)-based robust optimization are prevalent methods for solving multistage adaptive optimization (MSAP) problems. In practical applications such as capacity expansion planning of chemical processes, often multiple sources of uncertainty affect the problem which introduces challenges to traditional stochastic optimization methods. While a large number of uncertain parameters exist in the problem, using scenario-based method results in very large problem size and the solution becomes computationally expensive. In addition, when the constraints include multiplication of uncertain parameters and adaptive variables, the constraints are not linear with respect to uncertain parameters when the LDR method is used. In order to address these challenges, we propose two different hybrid methods where scenario and decision rule methods are combined to solve the MSAP problem. The article demonstrates the computational performance of the proposed hybrid methods using two chemical process planning examples.     

On the relation between flexibility analysis and robust optimization for linear systems

Flexibility analysis and robust optimization are two approaches to solving optimization problems under uncertainty that share some fundamental concepts, such as the use of polyhedral uncertainty sets and the worst‐case approach to guarantee feasibility. The connection between these two approaches has not been sufficiently acknowledged and examined in the literature. In this context, the contributions of this work are fourfold: (1) a comparison between flexibility analysis and robust optimization from a historical perspective is presented; (2) for linear systems, new formulations for the three classical flexibility analysis problems—flexibility test, flexibility index, and design under uncertainty—based on duality theory and the affinely adjustable robust optimization (AARO) approach are proposed; (3) the AARO approach is shown to be generally more restrictive such that it may lead to overly conservative solutions; (4) numerical examples show the improved computational performance from the proposed formulations compared to the traditional flexibility analysis models. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 62: 3109–3123, 2016     

Optimal robust optimization approximation for chance constrained optimization problem

Chance constraints are useful for modeling solution reliability in optimization under uncertainty. In general, solving chance constrained optimization problems is challenging and the existing methods for solving a chance constrained optimization problem largely rely on solving an approximation problem. Among the various approximation methods, robust optimization can provide safe and tractable analytical approximation. In this paper, we address the question of what is the optimal (least conservative) robust optimization approximation for the chance constrained optimization problems. A novel algorithm is proposed to find the smallest possible uncertainty set size that leads to the optimal robust optimization approximation. The proposed method first identifies the maximum set size that leads to feasible robust optimization problems and then identifies the best set size that leads to the desired probability of constraint satisfaction. Effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through a portfolio optimization problem, a production planning and a process scheduling problem.     

多因素不确定条件下的间歇生产调度优化

不确定条件下的间歇生产调度优化是生产调度问题研究中具有挑战性的课题。提出了一种基于混合整数线性规划(MILP)的鲁棒优化模型,来优化不确定条件下的生产调度决策。考虑到生产过程中的操作成本和原料成本,建立了以净利润最大为调度目标的确定性数学模型。然后考虑需求、处理时间、市场价格三种不确定因素,建立可调整保守程度的鲁棒优化模型并转换成鲁棒对应模型。实例结果表明,鲁棒优化的间歇生产调度模型较确定性模型利润减少,但生产任务数量增加,设备空闲时间缩短,从而增强了调度方案的可靠性,实现了不确定条件下生产操作性和经济性的综合优化。     

Scheduling of crude oil operations under demand uncertainty: A robust optimization framework coupled with global optimization

Scheduling of crude oil operations is an important component of overall refinery operations, because crude oil costs account for about 80% of the refinery turnover. The mathematical modeling of blending different crudes in storage tanks results in many bilinear terms, which transform the problem into a challenging, nonconvex, mixed‐integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) optimization model. In practice, uncertainties are unavoidable and include demand fluctuations, ship arrival delays, equipment malfunction, and tank unavailability. In the presence of these uncertainties, an optimal schedule generated using nominal parameter values may often be suboptimal or even become infeasible. In this article, the robust optimization framework proposed by Lin et al. and Janak et al. is extended to develop a deterministic robust counterpart optimization model for demand uncertainty. The recently proposed branch and bound global optimization algorithm with piecewise‐linear underestimation of bilinear terms by Li et al. is also extended to solve the nonconvex MINLP deterministic robust counterpart optimization model and generate robust schedules. Two examples are used to illustrate the capability of the proposed robust optimization approach, and the extended branch and bound global optimization algorithm for demand uncertainty. The computational results demonstrate that the obtained schedules are robust in the presence of demand uncertainty. © 2011 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 58: 2373–2396, 2012     

Optimal supply chain design and operations under multi‐scale uncertainties: Nested stochastic robust optimization modeling framework and solution algorithm

Although strategic and operational uncertainties differ in their significance of impact, a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach has been typically used to tackle all types of uncertainty in the optimal design and operations of supply chains. In this work, we propose a stochastic robust optimization model that handles multi‐scale uncertainties in a holistic framework, aiming to optimize the expected economic performance while ensuring the robustness of operations. Stochastic programming and robust optimization approaches are integrated in a nested manner to reflect the decision maker's different levels of conservativeness toward strategic and operational uncertainties. The resulting multi‐level mixed‐integer linear programming model is solved by a decomposition‐based column‐and‐constraint generation algorithm. To illustrate the application, a county‐level case study on optimal design and operations of a spatially‐explicit biofuel supply chain in Illinois is presented, which demonstrates the advantages and flexibility of the proposed modeling framework and efficiency of the solution algorithm. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 62: 3041–3055, 2016     

An in silico evaluation of data‐driven optimization of biopharmaceutical processes

Two methodological improvements of the design of dynamic experiments (C. Georgakis, Ind Eng Chem Res. 2013) for the modeling and optimization of (semi‐) batch processes are proposed. Their effectiveness is evaluated in two representative classes of biopharmaceutical processes. First, we incorporate prior process knowledge in the design of the experiments. Many batch processes and, in particular, biopharmaceutical processes are usually not understood completely to enable the development of an accurate knowledge‐driven model. However, partial process knowledge is often available and should not be ignored. We demonstrate here how to incorporate such knowledge. Second, we introduce an evolutionary modeling and optimization approach to minimize the initial number of experiments in the face of budgetary and time constraints. The proposed approach starts with the estimation of only a linear Response Surface Model, which requires the minimum number of experiments. Accounting for the model's uncertainty, the proposed approach calculates a process optimum that meets a maximum uncertainty constraint. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 63: 2796–2805, 2017     

Robust Optimal Operation of Two‐Chamber Microbial Fuel Cell System Under Uncertainty: A Stochastic Simulation Based Multi‐Objective Genetic Algorithm Approach

This investigation is performed to study the optimal operation decision of two‐chamber microbial fuel cell (MFC) system under uncertainty. To gain insight into the mechanism of uncertainty propagation, a Quasi‐Monte Carlo method‐based stochastic analysis is conducted not only to elucidate the effect of each uncertain parameter on the variability of power density output, but also to illustrate the interactive effects of the all uncertain parameters on the performance of MFC. Moreover, a systematic stochastic simulation‐based multi‐objective genetic algorithm framework is proposed to identify a set of Pareto‐optimal robust operation strategies, which is helpful to provide an imperative insight into the relationship between the mean and standard deviation of output power density. The results indicate that (1) the coefficient of variance (COV) value of output power density has a linear relationship with the COV value of each uncertainty parameter as well as all interactive parameters; and (2) a significant performance improvement with respect to both mean and standard deviation of power density is observed by implementing the multi‐objective robust optimization. These results thus validate that the proposed uncertainty analysis and robust optimization framework provide a promising tool for robust optimal design and operation of fuel cell systems under uncertainty.