Integrated energy and carbon modeling with a decision support system: Policy scenarios for low-carbon city development in Bangkok

Energy use in Bangkok accounts for a large portion of the total energy consumption in Thailand. Few energy and carbon studies, however, have focused on the level of the city. International research indicates that cities are the key drivers of energy usage and the associated carbon emissions. This paper presents a study on the options for energy and carbon development for the city of Bangkok. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model is used to simulate a range of policy interventions and to predict how these would change energy and carbon development from 2000 to 2025. The planning period is assumed to start in 2005, and 2000 is used as the baseline year. Sustainability of the sixteen proposed policies and scenarios is analyzed using a multi-criteria decision-making approach. Results of this study provide an insight into Bangkok's energy and carbon future and highlight the steps required to promote a sustainable low-carbon society. The most significant energy savings are in the transport sector, where a modal shift from private passenger vehicles to mass transit systems has the potential to significantly reduce energy demand, carbon emissions, and local air pollutants.     

Energy RTD expenditures in the European union: Data gathering procedures and results towards a scientific reference system

Insights into the past Energy Research and Technology Development (ERTD) expenditures allows policy makers to better set priorities for current and future ERTD funding as well as to analyze the exact impact of ERTD investments to the development of energy technologies. However, despite numerous attempts in the past, there is currently no comprehensive, validated database that includes disaggregated data on public and private ERTD expenditures in the EU-27 for different technology groups. One of the main aims of the Scientific Reference System for New Energy Technologies and Energy End Use Efficiency (SRS NET & EEE) FP6 project is to enhance the availability, quality and completeness of data on public and private ERTD expenditures, disaggregated for energy technologies and energy end-use efficiency options in the EU-27. The aim of the paper is to outline the main data gathering procedures and results from the “SRS NET & EEE” project, as well as the related policy implication.     

Small might be beautiful,but bigger performs better: Scale economies in “green” refurbishments of apartment housing

The energy efficiency of the residential housing stock plays a key role in strategies to mitigate climate change and global warming. In this context, it is frequently argued that private investment and the quality of thermal upgrades are too low in the light of the challenges faced and the potential energy cost savings. While many authors address the potential barriers for investors to increase energy efficiency, studies on the capabilities of different investors to reduce energy requirements of their property are scarce. This study investigates potential advantages of housing company's size, i.e. economies of scale, economies of scope and institutional learning in thermal upgrades of residential housing. Based on unique data on energy consumption in 102,307 apartment buildings in Germany, we present new evidence for the advantages and disadvantages of a housing company's size in “green” retrofitting projects. Our estimations show, that large housing companies outperform private landlords by far in high effort refurbishment projects. In contrast, private landlords appear to have advantages in low effort, incremental refurbishment activities. We demonstrate that a substantial share of the advantages of larger firms can be associated with specialization (i.e. repeated projects). The results offer new options for policy makers to refine the support schemes toward a low carbon housing stock.     

International policies and strategies

A global overview of the energy situation in respect of the consumption patterns and policy options has been presented. Some of the fundamental issues such as international and national inequity in consumption patterns, perspective role of renewable sources in a transition towards sustainability, capitalization needs to create material systems for energy transformation and paradigm shifts in energy are discussed.     

Analysis of sectoral energy conservation in Malaysia

The electrical energy consumption in Malaysia has increased sharply in the past few years, and modern energy efficient technologies are desperately needed for the national energy policy. This article presents a comprehensive picture of the current status of energy consumption and various energy conservation options viable for Malaysian environment. A detailed survey is made to assess the consumption pattern and the existing techniques for energy efficiency. Based on the survey, the feasibility of improving the available systems and adopting new programs in different sectors is investigated. The study reveals the fact that the energy conservation policy of the country has been fairly improved in the last ten years. However the country has to pay more attention to this area and make urgent measures to adopt more energy efficient technologies in various sectors.     

Evaluating the risks of alternative energy policies: a case study of industrial energy efficiency

Numerous studies have shown the potential for US manufacturing to cut its energy costs by installing more efficient equipment that offers competitive payback periods, but the realization of this potential is hindered by numerous obstacles. This paper evaluates seven federal policy options aimed at revitalizing US manufacturing by improving its energy economics while also achieving environmental and energy reliability goals. Traditionally, policy analysts have examined the cost-effectiveness of energy policies using deterministic assumptions. When risk factors are introduced, they are typically examined using sensitivity analysis to focus on alternative assumptions about budgets, policy design, energy prices, and other such variables. In this paper, we also explicitly model the stochastic nature of several key risk factors including future energy prices, damages from climate change, and the cost of criteria pollutants. Using these two approaches, each policy is "stress tested" to evaluate the likely range of private and social returns on investment. Overall, we conclude that the societal cost-effectiveness of policies is generally more sensitive to alternative assumptions about damages from criteria pollutants and climate change compared with energy prices; however, risks also vary across policies based partly on the technologies they target. Future research needs to examine the macroeconomic consequences of the choice between a lethargic approach to energy waste and modernization in manufacturing versus a vigorous commitment to industrial energy productivity and innovation as characterized by the suite of policies described in this paper.     

Emerging energy scenario in Western Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh

The GHGs emmited by using conventional energy sources rapid industrialization and development in hills, are contributing global warming, which has resulted in melting of glaciers located in the state at the rate of 0.3–20 m² per year as per recent studies. The shrinking of glaciers, which are the main source of water of Himalayan rivers, can have an adverse impact on the future of hydro-power projects, many of which may become non-functional during next 40–50 years if the current trend of melting of glaciers continues and the other renewable energy sources are required to be tapped to supplement the declining hydro-electricity generation. The energy consumption for cooking, lighting and space heating in the Western Himalayan Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, is highest in the northern India. The fuelwood consumption constitutes about 52% of the total energy consumption of the state. About 2.7 h per person per trip in the rural areas, are spent for the collection of fuelwood mainly during winters. A number of options and potential of renewable energy sources for cooking, heating and lighting in the state have been discussed. The future policy interventions in the energy sector are also presented.     

Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms’ investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5–10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16–37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty.     

Determinants of household energy consumption in India

Improving access to affordable modern energy is critical to improving living standards in the developing world. Rural households in India, in particular, are almost entirely reliant on traditional biomass for their basic cooking energy needs. This has adverse effects on their health and productivity, and also causes environmental degradation. This study presents a new generic modelling approach, with a focus on cooking fuel choices, and explores response strategies for energy poverty eradication in India. The modelling approach analyzes the determinants of fuel consumption choices for heterogeneous household groups, incorporating the effect of income distributions and traditionally more intangible factors such as preferences and private discount rates. The methodology is used to develop alternate future scenarios that explore how different policy mechanisms such as fuel subsidies and micro-financing can enhance the diffusion of modern, more efficient, energy sources in India.     

Energy demand and CO2 emissions reduction options in Nigeria

This paper presents policy options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria. The policies were formulated based on a thorough analysis of Nigeria's current energy consumption patterns and the projected evolution of key parameters that drive Nigeria's energy demand — primarily the rate of industrialization, the demand for transportation services, and the expansion of Nigeria's population. The study shows that the most promising options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria are improving energy efficiency and increasing the use of natural gas and renewable energy sources.     

A state-of-the-art review of the sustainability and energy efficiency of buildings in Saudi Arabia

Sustainable buildings have an important role in achieving sustainable development by improving energy utilization and environmental performance. Buildings are considered as the biggest single contributor to world energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In Saudi Arabia, the significance of the building sector can be described on the basis of per capita electricity consumption, per capita carbon dioxide emissions, and the increasing number of buildings because of economic and population growth. Therefore, the country should consider establishing energy-efficient buildings to promote sustainable development. Efforts in developing energy-efficient technologies should increase for the national energy policy. This article comprehensively describes the current challenges and opportunities of energy consumption and various energy conservation options that are viable for the Saudi building sector. Current policy efforts for improving energy efficiency in Saudi buildings have been analyzed to enhance the sustainable development in the country. The study reveals that the energy conservation policy of the country has fairly improved in the past decades. However, the country has to focus on this area and perform urgent measures to adopt energy-efficient technologies in the building sector.     

Conservation and solar energy in residential and commercial buildings: The northern industrialized USA

This recently completed study discusses the potential of conservation and solar energy in Michigan. While much of the quantitative analysis is specific to Michigan, the problems and opportunities discussed are largely generic to the northern industrial states in the USA. Technical estimates of energy savings potential are combined with economic analyses and market penetration considerations to provide an overall picture of the potential for conservation and solar energy. Barriers to market penetration are used as a basis for identifying a wide range of economic, informational, and institutional policy options for consideration by government and private sector decisionmakers.     

美国、日本客运交通系统比较及对能源消费的影响分析

本文比较了美国、日本两国在私人汽车保有量、交通运输模式、不同汽车类型保有结构、汽车平均能源效率水平等方面的主要差异,研究分析了这种差异对能源消费所造成的直接影响,提出了对我国的借鉴性意义。     

Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity.     

Situation of Turkey's energy indicators among the EU member states

As a candidate country for EU accession, Turkey should make significant future plans about strategy of consumption and production of basic energy sources. The main goal of this study is determination of energy indicators situation for Turkey—to allow us to draw up a good energy policy for the future using the method of multiple variables data analysis. Basic energy and economic indicators, such as gross generation, installed capacity, net energy consumption per person, import, export, consumption of coal, lignite, fuel oil, natural gas and hydroelectricity are used in the analysis. Energy indicators used in the analysis are taken from the EUROSTAT and Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). Results of analysis show that Turkey's most important goal for the future is to produce proper energy policies.     

A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty

Biomethane is a renewable alternative to natural gas. It has the potential to increase the sustainability of the energy system and to help deal with supply problems. However, several factors make the future of biomethane production complex and uncertain, such as resource availability, demand, capacity installation, profitability and the competition between the biomethane and electricity sectors for sharing the available biogas and biomass resources. In this research, we study the dynamics of the Dutch biomethane production and analyze the effects of subsidization policy with a system dynamics model. The policy is tested under uncertainty with respect to three conflicting objectives, namely maximizing production and emission reduction, and minimizing costs. According to the results, the subsidization is crucial to develop biomethane production, and the performance of the policy is enhanced in terms of robustness and of meeting all three objectives satisfactorily when the policy is implemented for a long time, with relatively low subsidy prices. Besides, the subsidization policy is found to be most vulnerable to the producers’ uncertain investment response to profitability. In future research, different policy options such as subsidizing other biomass-based renewable energy options and policies affecting the biomethane demand can be tested.     

我国鼓励节能的财税政策思路和建议

未来我国政府对能源的管理应由能源供应转向供应与终端消费并重,要从行政手段为主转向经济政策调控手段为主。在操作层面上,政府应该通过采取有效的经济激励政策,建立终端用能设备能效标准和标识体系,鼓励生产和使用各类节能设备,以减少能源消费、促进市场竞争、减少污染物排放,从而逐步建立起有效的节能性社会。财税政策是国家鼓励节能经济政策的重要方面,本文主要从税收政策、政府预算政策、政府采购政策等方面提出相应的思路和对策建议。     

Australia: Approaching an energy crossroads

This paper considers energy policy in Australia in the context of its considerable energy resources, climate change and a recent change in government. It examines the possible paths that future energy use and policy in Australia could take, including published projections based largely on a “business as usual” approach and projections based on a dramatic shift towards more efficient use of energy and renewable energy technologies. It also considers the various factors affecting future policy direction, including energy security, the advocacy in Australia for establishing nuclear electricity generation and other parts of the nuclear fuel-cycle, responses to climate change, and carbon sequestration. It concludes that while the Australian Government is currently reluctant to move away from a dependence on coal, and unlikely to adopt nuclear energy generation, a low-emissions future without waiting for the deployment of carbon capture and storage and without resorting to nuclear power is within reach. However, in the face of strong pressure from interest groups associated with energy intensive industry, making the necessary innovations will require further growth of community concern about climate change, and the development of greater understanding of the feasibility of employing low carbon-emissions options.     

Social construction and physical nihilation of the Keystone XL pipeline: Lessons from international relations theory

If a prime goal of energy policy is to achieve energy security, why is there a controversy over the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, designed to deliver new supplies of oil from within North America? This Viewpoint seeks answers in the debate over the underlying purposes of energy policy: how does one answers the question “what do we want from energy policy?” Perceptions of feasible answers and policy options change over time, as witnessed in the 1970s. Analogous shifts in opinion are changing today's policy debates and widening the contradictions in policy purposes. Attention to the existence of these contradictions, without illusions, is necessary to meet the policy challenges of the future effectively.     

Analysis of tax incentives for energy-efficient durables in the EU

Climate change is one of the most significant challenges faced by societies this century. Energy consumption is directly associated with CO₂ emissions and climate change. The European Commission has set out emission reduction targets that require a great deal of energy consumption savings in the next 10 years in European countries. This paper presents the results of an analysis of the potential cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed to foster the production and consumption of energy-efficient appliances in different European countries. Our results suggest that incentives to promote the use of energy-efficient appliances can be cost-effective, but whether or not they are depends on the particular country and the options under consideration. From the cases considered, tax credits on boilers appear to be a cost-effective option in Denmark and Italy, while subsidies on CFLi bulbs in France and Poland are cost-effective in terms of €/ton of CO₂ abated. Comparing the subsidies against the energy tax options, we find that the subsidies are in most cases less cost-effective than the energy tax.