节能减碳背景下终端用电折算方法研究

应用不同的终端用电折算方法将得到消费端不同的能耗量和碳排放量结果,因此在当前节能低碳的形势下,如果折算方法应用不当将无法有效推动终端用户节能减碳的积极性,并可能导致用户错误选择用能技术方式.为此,本文总结并分析了终端用户能耗和碳排放考核及项目评价等政策中电力折算方法的应用.研究表明,我国当前在计算终端能耗和碳排放时存在方法不统一及使用不当等问题.建议从全局角度出发,在现有电价制度下将能源损失和碳排放计入消费端,供应端根据技术标准进行控制,尽快完善电力体制机制,推动全社会的节能减碳.     

Carbon dioxide emissions and the finance curse

The paper empirically examines whether a country's financial sector influences carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for a sample of advanced and developing countries during the period 1989–2013. It first considers financial sector development and finds that a better functioning of financial system raises and then reduces CO₂ emissions with financial deepening. We then investigate whether financial structure, i.e., the dominance of stock markets over banks, matters and find that a more market-led (bank-led) financial system alleviates (enhances) but eventually aggravates (lowers) CO₂ emissions. We also check for market power in banking and show that CO₂ emissions decrease with bank market power up to a threshold level beyond which a less competitive, more concentrated banking sector raises CO₂ emissions. Next, we examine whether there are differences between household credit and enterprise credit and find irrelevance of credit composition. Bank lending to households or enterprises raises CO₂ emissions up to a threshold above which more lending is associated with less CO₂ emissions. It is also found that these effects work in part through the green technology channel. Our data thus suggest that financial reforms toward development of a more competitive, less concentrated bank-based financial system are conducive to better environmental quality.     

中国城市二氧化碳排放空间特征及与二氧化硫协同治理分析

我国CO_2排放在空间上受热点城市影响而形成空间集聚格局,一些重点城市直接决定着我国CO_2排放空间格局。中国城市CO_2和SO2排放"同时、同根、同源",113个重点城市中两者排放显著相关,平均每排放1tSO_2,会相应排放452tCO_2,这是2008年中国城市燃煤、燃油、燃气能源结构以及实施脱硫工程的综合体现。考虑CO_2和SO_2在排放机理和统计意义上的显著相关性,建议我国充分考虑把CO_2和SO_2等大气污染物排放控制的重点放到典型城市上,并积极开展协同治理。     

煤种对燃煤电厂碳排放经济性的影响研究

为了减少温室气体排放,同时保证电厂运行的经济性,本文采用VB6. 0编程实现对一台600 MW锅炉热力计算,对比分析了4种不同煤种对锅炉效率、燃煤成本的影响;基于物料平衡法重点分析煤质成分对碳排放及脱硫成本影响。结果表明:同一负荷下,低位发热量越低、收到基碳含量越高的煤种燃煤量、碳排放量越大;煤质特性和碳价共同决定燃煤成本、排碳及脱硫成本,燃用贫煤时整体经济性最差;碳价变化时,不同的煤种对应的燃煤和排碳总成本也不同。根据当前燃煤价格及碳价提前预测电厂运行经济性,对燃煤电厂合理选择煤种提供有益的参考。     

Regulatory frameworks for decentralised energy

This paper considers aspects of the current regulatory frameworks for markets and infrastructure which can inhibit the deployment of decentralised energy. The government has stated that decentralised energy can make a positive contribution to reducing the UK's carbon emissions, but recognises that at the moment the technologies face market and regulatory barriers. If it is to become a viable alternative to centralised generation, energy market design and the regulation of energy infrastructure will have to evolve to ensure that decentralised options are no longer locked out.     

Modelling for insight: Does financial development improve environmental quality?

The need to formulate policies to mitigate global warming has necessitated the need to understand the drivers of carbon emissions. The current study utilises the system-generalised method of moments to investigate the direct and indirect effect of financial development on carbon emissions for 46 sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period 2000–2015. Using several indicators of financial development, the empirical results reveal that financial development measured using broad money, domestic credit to the private sector and domestic credit to private sector by banks increase carbon emissions while FDI, liquid liabilities and domestic credit to private sector by financial sector do not affect carbon emissions. The results show that none of the financial development indicators exerts a significant nonlinear effect on carbon emissions. The results further indicate that FDI moderates economic growth to reduce carbon emissions but does not moderate energy consumption to affect carbon emissions. Contrarily, financial development measured using broad money, domestic credit to private sector by banks, domestic credit to private sector by financial sector and domestic credit to private sector moderate energy consumption to increase carbon emissions while the first three indicators of financial development moderate economic growth to increase carbon emissions. The results do not confirm the existence of the EKC hypothesis but confirm that population size, energy consumption, trade openness, urbanisation and economic growth increase carbon emissions. There are some variations in these results across regional and income groupings. These findings do advance not only knowledge but also have several implications for sustainable development policy.     

Implications of carbon cap-and-trade for US voluntary renewable energy markets

Many consumers today are purchasing renewable energy in large part for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions benefits that they provide. Emerging carbon regulation in the US has the potential to affect existing markets for renewable energy. Carbon cap-and-trade programs are now under development in the Northeast under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and in early stages of development in the West and Midwest. There is increasing discussion about carbon regulation at the national level as well. While renewable energy will likely benefit from carbon cap-and-trade programs because compliance with the cap will increase the costs of fossil fuel generation, cap-and-trade programs can also impact the ability of renewable energy generation to affect overall CO₂ emissions levels and obtain value for those emissions benefits. This paper summarizes key issues for renewable energy markets that are emerging with carbon regulation, such as the implications for emissions benefits claims and voluntary market demand and the use of renewable energy certificates (RECs) in multiple markets. It also explores policy options under consideration for designing carbon policies to enable carbon markets and renewable energy markets to work together.     

Implications of the EU Emissions Trading System for the South-East Europe Regional Electricity Market

As part of its climate policy, the European Union (EU) aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels by 20% by the year 2020 compared to 1990 levels. Although the EU is projected to reach this goal, its achievement of objectives under its Emissions Trading System (ETS) may be delayed by carbon leakage, which is defined as a situation in which the reduction in emissions in the ETS region is partially offset by an increase in carbon emissions in the non-ETS regions. We study the interaction between emissions and hydropower availability in order to estimate the magnitude of carbon leakage in the South-East Europe Regional Electricity Market (SEE-REM) via a bottom-up partial equilibrium framework. We find that 6.3% to 40.5% of the emissions reduction achieved in the ETS part of SEE-REM could be leaked to the non-ETS part depending on the price of allowances. Somewhat surprisingly, greater hydropower availability may increase emissions in the ETS part of SEE-REM. However, carbon leakage might be limited by demand response to higher electricity prices in the non-ETS area of SEE-REM. Such carbon leakage can affect both the competitiveness of producers in ETS member countries on the periphery of the ETS and the achievement of EU targets for CO₂ emissions reduction. Meanwhile, higher non-ETS electricity prices imply that the current policy can have undesirable outcomes for consumers in non-ETS countries, while non-ETS producers would experience an increase in their profits due to higher power prices as well as exports. The presence of carbon leakage in SEE-REM suggests that current EU policy might become more effective when it is expanded to cover more countries in the future.     

低碳发展时代的世界与中国能源格局

哥本哈根会议认定了"2℃"和"在2050年前全球排放量减到1990年的一半",到2050年,碳减排要求世界人均能耗不高于2.5t标煤/a。能源碳强度ω是一个反映碳排放与能源结构关系的新指标,利用它与一次能源消费中生成并排放二氧化碳的各种形式能源所占比率γ的关联式ω=2.4γ进行推算:按照450情景方案,二氧化碳排放峰值307×108t出现在2020年,而能耗峰值在2030年左右;按照丹麦方案,二氧化碳排放峰值320×108t出现在2025年,能耗峰值也大约在2030年,将达到273×108t标煤/a,人均3.3t标煤/a。碳排放峰值年越推迟,达到2050年远期目标的难度越大。按照丹麦方案,2030~2050年的20年间,需平均每年减排10×108t二氧化碳,同时与450情景方案相比,大气中二氧化碳总量将增加400×108t以上。根据中国政府宣布的2010~2020年的减排目标推算,2020年能耗为41×108t标煤,二氧化碳排放约74×108t,中国只要能做到能耗强度每5年降低20%,就能够实现此目标。中国应在2020年之前快速发展非化石能源、加速产业转型、大力发展天然气、大幅提高能效,这样就完全能够与世界减排同行。     

Regulatory standards and barriers to improved performance for housing

This paper argues that energy efficiency in dwellings probably needs to improve more rapidly, and to higher levels, than is likely to be achieved by current policy if global mean temperature rise is to be held to 2 K. History suggests that achieving real reductions in carbon emissions is not easy in this sector. Future progress will require significant changes in the way policy is formulated and implemented.     

Enabling technologies for industrial energy demand management

This state-of-science review sets out to provide an indicative assessment of enabling technologies for reducing UK industrial energy demand and carbon emissions to 2050. In the short term, i.e. the period that will rely on current or existing technologies, the road map and priorities are clear. A variety of available technologies will lead to energy demand reduction in industrial processes, boiler operation, compressed air usage, electric motor efficiency, heating and lighting, and ancillary uses such as transport. The prospects for the commercial exploitation of innovative technologies by the middle of the 21st century are more speculative. Emphasis is therefore placed on the range of technology assessment methods that are likely to provide policy makers with a guide to progress in the development of high-temperature processes, improved materials, process integration and intensification, and improved industrial process control and monitoring. Key among the appraisal methods applicable to the energy sector is thermodynamic analysis, making use of energy, exergy and ‘exergoeconomic’ techniques. Technical and economic barriers will limit the improvement potential to perhaps a 30% cut in industrial energy use, which would make a significant contribution to reducing energy demand and carbon emissions in UK industry. Non-technological drivers for, and barriers to, the take-up of innovative, low-carbon energy technologies for industry are also outlined.     

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) for emissions reduction in the New Zealand electricity sector

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) is a recent extension of traditional thermal and mass pinch analysis to the area of emissions targeting and planning on a macro-scale (i.e. economy wide). This paper presents an extension to the current methodology that accounts for increased demand and a carbon pinch analysis of the New Zealand electricity industry while illustrating some of the issues with realising meaningful emissions reductions. The current large proportion of renewable generation (67% in 2007) complicates extensive reduction of carbon emissions from electricity generation. The largest growth in renewable generation is expected to come from geothermal generation followed by wind and hydro. A four fold increase in geothermal generation capacity is needed in addition to large amounts of new wind generation to reduce emissions to around 1990 levels and also meet projected demand. The expected expansion of geothermal generation in New Zealand raises issues of GHG emissions from the geothermal fields. The emissions factors between fields can vary by almost two orders of magnitude making predictions of total emissions highly site specific.     

Models for assessing net CO2 emissions applied on district heating technologies

Methodologies to assess the effects of energy projects on global carbon dioxide emissions will be an important feature of a future international carbon dioxide trading system. In this paper, we present and discuss four different models for assessing the net carbon dioxide emissions resulting from a certain energy project. These models are applied to different district heating technologies. To judge the mitigation performance of a project, the amount of carbon dioxide released in kilograms is expressed per megawatt‐hour of useful district heating produced. All the models consider the marginal change caused by the project on the electric power system. The different model perspectives are discussed, and it is shown that the choice of model is very critical for assessing the net carbon dioxide emissions from an energy project. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国中长期碳减排战略目标初探(Ⅲ)——石油能源产品在交通运输等行业中的应用和碳减排

在我国中长期的终端能源需求中石油将占约15%的份额,其中55%～60%将被用于交通运输行业。逐步减少交通运输领域石油能源产品的使用量,对减少能源消费总量和二氧化碳排放量十分重要。目前国内外研究机构预测的中国2050年货运周转总量(8×104～9×104Gt.km)及公路货运周转量均明显偏高,造成预测的运输燃料消耗量太高,这也反映出调整中国经济产业结构和进出口贸易结构的紧迫性。减少私人乘用车的拥有量和出行量也是节能减排的关键,采用西方发达国家私人乘用车的比例,预测中国2050年将拥有5×108～6×108辆乘用车不符合中国人口众多、城市中心区人口密度的特点,将乘用车数量控制在3.0×108辆的水平比较恰当。目前全球运输领域二氧化碳排放量约占总排放量的20%～25%,中国运输领域的二氧化碳排放量将逐步上升,占总排放量的份额将从目前的7%提高到2050年的30%以上。应努力采取各种措施,使2050年乘用车的二氧化碳排放强度降低到40g/km的水平。除了减少化石能源石油产品使用量、使用生物质燃料、推广纯电动汽车和开发燃料电池汽车外,改变出行方式、发展方便快捷的公共交通显得十分重要。预计我国2050年燃料电池汽车将占到小汽车保有量的20%左右,纯电动汽车占30%左右,各种混合动力汽车将占50%左右。为了使中国2050年二氧化碳排放总量控制在40×108～50×108t的水平,有可能也有必要将石油的使用量控制在6.0×108t,交通运输领域石油能源产品使用量控制在4.0×108t以下。     

Determining marginal electricity for near-term plug-in and fuel cell vehicle demands in California: Impacts on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

California has taken steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. One example is the recent adoption of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which aims to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels. To effectively implement this and similar policies, it is necessary to understand well-to-wheels emissions associated with distinct vehicle and fuel platforms, including those using electricity. This analysis uses an hourly electricity dispatch model to simulate and investigate operation of the current California grid and its response to added vehicle and fuel-related electricity demands in the near term. The model identifies the “marginal electricity mix” - the mix of power plants that is used to supply the incremental electricity demand from vehicles and fuels - and calculates greenhouse gas emissions from those plants. It also quantifies the contribution from electricity to well-to-wheels greenhouse gas emissions from battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles and explores sensitivities of electricity supply and emissions to hydro-power availability, timing of electricity demand (including vehicle recharging), and demand location within the state. The results suggest that the near-term marginal electricity mix for vehicles and fuels in California will come from natural gas-fired power plants, including a significant fraction (likely as much as 40%) from relatively inefficient steam- and combustion-turbine plants. The marginal electricity emissions rate will be higher than the average rate from all generation - likely to exceed 600 gCO₂ equiv. kWh⁻¹ during most hours of the day and months of the year - and will likely be more than 60% higher than the value estimated in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. But despite the relatively high fuel carbon intensity of marginal electricity in California, alternative vehicle and fuel platforms still reduce emissions compared to conventional gasoline vehicles and hybrids, through improved vehicle efficiency.     

中国中长期碳减排战略目标初探(Ⅰ)——中国分阶段温室气体减排目标的提出及其依据

减少温室气体排放已刻不容缓,一系列研究显示,温升2℃是人类生活不受气候变化干扰的上限,大致550μL/L二氧化碳当量的温室气体浓度或约450～500μL/L的二氧化碳浓度对应2℃的温升。达到稳定浓度时的2005年以后的累积排放量和2005年的排碳数据一起才可以计算出最终的减排量化指标,而拐点年代和逐年排放量是可调控的动态指标。核实本世纪上半叶的累积排放量,并将排放额度分解到各个国家和地区是一项十分艰巨且很迫切的任务。我国的碳减排可分为2005～2020年的前期、2021～2035年的中期和2036～2050年的后期。权威部门曾推算了一系列数据,但与当前掌握的实际数据对比,对2010年的碳排放预测数据均偏低。有学者提出我国2005～2050年间的排碳额度为370Gt,约为全世界的28%,比例基本合理。如果2050年二氧化碳排放总量确定为140×108t,则中国为40×108t,人均2.6t,形势非常严峻。把我国2020年二氧化碳排放量控制在100×108t以内十分必要;我国碳减排中期处于拐点过渡期,我国的拐点将直接影响世界的拐点,应争取拐点出现在2025年,过渡期为2020～2030年;我国2050年与2035年的二氧化碳排放量差值应为45×108t,只要依靠非化石能源替代化石能源、采用CCS技术、最大限度地采用零碳排放甚至负碳排放的替代燃料就能得到控制,但仍然存在许多不确定因素,有待深入研究。     

Wind farms on undegraded peatlands are unlikely to reduce future carbon emissions

Onshore wind energy is a key component of the renewable energies used by governments to reduce carbon emissions from electricity production, but will carbon emissions be reduced when wind farms are located on carbon-rich peatands? Wind farms are often located in uplands because most are of low agricultural value, are distant from residential areas, and are windy. Many UK uplands are peatlands, with layers of accumulated peat that represent a large stock of soil carbon. When peatlands are drained for construction there is a higher risk of net carbon loss than for mineral soils. Previous work suggests that wind farms sited on peatlands can reduce net carbon emissions if strictly managed for maximum retention of carbon. Here we show that, whereas in 2010, most sites had potential to provide net carbon savings, by 2040 most sites will not reduce carbon emissions even with careful management. This is due to projected changes in the proportion of fossil fuels used to generate electricity. The results suggest future policy should avoid constructing wind farms on undegraded peatlands unless drainage of peat is minimal and the volume excavated in foundations can be significantly reduced compared to energy output.     

Environmental regulations an option: Asymmetry effect of environmental regulations on carbon emissions using non-linear ARDL

The current study reported the asymmetry effect of environmental regulations in the presence of controlled variables such as research and development spending, urban population growth, energy consumption, and financial development on carbon emissions in case of China for the period of 1991–2015. Econometric techniques such as ADF and PP is used to check the stationarity of the data while asymmetry or non-linear ARDL is used to check the asymmetry. The results suggest symmetric or linear relationship between environmental regulations and carbon emissions. Linear ARDL is applied to check long-run and short-run relationship amongst the variables. The results verified that there exists negative and statistically significant relationship exists both in short and long-run between environmental regulation and carbon emissions. Similarly, research and development and financial development also improve carbon emissions. However, urban population growth and energy consumption increase carbon emissions. The study further suggests that sustainable, green urbanization, green credit concept to promote sustainable financial development, innovation in technology through research and development and current environmental regulation should be strengthening to achieve China 2030 target of reducing carbon emissions.     

A multivariate causality test of carbon dioxide emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in China

This paper uses multivariate co-integration Granger causality tests to investigate the correlations between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China. Some researchers have argued that the adoption of a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption as a long term policy goal will result in a closed-form relationship, to the detriment of the economy. Therefore, a perspective that can make allowances for the fact that the exclusive pursuit of economic growth will increase energy consumption and CO₂ emissions is required; to the extent that such growth will have adverse effects with regard to global climate change.     

Deployment of fuel cell vehicles in China: Greenhouse gas emission reductions from converting the heavy-duty truck fleet from diesel and natural gas to hydrogen

Hydrogen fuel cells, as an energy source for heavy duty vehicles, are gaining attention as a potential carbon mitigation strategy. Here we calculate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Chinese heavy-duty truck fleet under four hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty truck penetration scenarios from 2020 through 2050. We introduce Aggressive, Moderate, Conservative and No Fuel Cell Vehicle (No FCV) scenarios. Under these four scenarios, the market share of heavy-duty trucks powered by fuel cells will reach 100%, 50%, 20% and 0%, respectively, in 2050. We go beyond previous studies which compared differences in GHG emissions from different hydrogen production pathways. We now combine an analysis of the carbon intensity of various hydrogen production pathways with predictions of the future hydrogen supply structure in China along with various penetration rates of heavy-duty fuel cell vehicles. We calculate the associated carbon intensity per vehicle kilometer travelled of the hydrogen used in heavy-duty trucks in each scenario, providing a practical application of our research. Our results indicate that if China relies only on fuel economy improvements, with the projected increase in vehicle miles travelled, the GHG emissions of the heavy-duty truck fleet will continue to increase and will remain almost unchanged after 2025. The Aggressive, Moderate and Conservative FCV Scenarios will achieve 63%, 30% and 12% reductions, respectively, in GHG emissions in 2050 from the heavy duty truck fleet compared to the No FCV Scenario. Additional reductions are possible if the current source of hydrogen from fossil fuels was displaced with increased use of hydrogen from water electrolysis using non-fossil generated electricity.