从汽柴油消费变化预测我国中长期石油需求

我国石油消费需求不断增长,2012年达到5.03×108t,石油对外依存度从2009年超过国际警戒线达到52%以来持续提高,已逼近60%。影响石油消费的主要因素包括国民经济发展水平、城镇化率、汽车保有量、非石油能源及节能技术等,其中中长期内对我国石油消费影响较大的是国民经济发展水平、汽车保有量及城镇化趋势。采用主成分分析法,预测我国2020年、2030年汽柴油消费量合计分别为31593×104t和34718×104t,按照汽柴油消费量合计占石油消费总量的55%计算,2020年、2030年的石油消费量分别为5.7×108t和6.3×108t。届时我国每年至少需要进口石油3.7×108t以上,对外依存度将高达65%。鉴于此,建议应大力发展和鼓励使用节能型(低能耗)汽车及新能源汽车,逐步降低汽车保有量增幅,并高效有序地发展公共交通;同时有序调整炼油厂装置结构,提高优质汽柴油调合组分比例;另外,加快发展替代能源和替代燃料是有效降低石油消费需求增幅,提高能源安全保障能力的重要措施之一。     

交通运输业能耗现状及未来走势分析

低碳经济要求交通运输有效、合理地使用能源,优化配置各种交通工具,降低能耗。近年来,我国交通运输业能耗增长率总体上高于全社会能耗增长率,占全社会能耗比重基本维持在7.5%左右。各种运输方式的能耗主要集中在油耗上,2007年交通运输业汽煤柴3种油耗叠加在一起,占全社会油耗比重近70%。交通运输中电能利用效率较高,节电效果好于全社会,电耗占全社会电耗比重从2002年的2.07%降至2007年的1.63%,但占全国交通运输能耗比重仅10%左右,能耗结构不合理现象并未得到改善。2008年国家铁路单位运输工作量综合能耗比上年降低3.1%,2009年我国铁路电气化率达到41.9%,铁路能耗结构出现根本性改善和优化,开始转变为以电耗为主。公路运输油耗总量呈快速增长趋势,百吨公里油耗指标呈稳中略升态势,节能空间和潜能较大。水运(含港口)能耗2004年之前呈上升趋势,之后下降趋势明显,约占交通运输业总能耗的15%。民航每吨公里油耗从2002年的0.364kg降至2007年的0.309kg,航油消耗增长率基本维持在12%上下,有较为明显的减弱趋势。未来10年,我国交通运输能源消耗总量将进一步攀升,虽然能耗结构将得到一定程度优化,电耗比重会迅速增长,但由于公路能耗在交通运输能耗中占有绝对比重,故难以从根本上改善交通运输以油耗为主的结构特点。我国交通运输业应逐步调整到以铁路为主导的各种交通方式协调发展的模式上来,最大限度地降低运输业油耗在整个交通运输行业中的比重,"以电代油"。     

Potential contribution of bioethanol fuel to the transport sector of Vojvodina

The Autonomous Province of Vojvodina is an Autonomous Province in Serbia and it is an energy-deficient country. The indigenous reserves of oil and gas are limited and the country is heavily dependent on the import of oil. The oil import bill is a serious strain on the country's economy and has been deteriorating the balance of payments situation. The country has become increasingly more dependent on fossil fuels and its energy security hangs on the fragile supply of imported oil that is subject to disruptions and price volatility. The transport sector has a 26% share in the total commercial energy consumption in Vojvodina. About 0.62 million tons of gasoline were consumed by this sector in 2008. Gasoline consumption in the transport sector is also a major source of environmental degradation especially in urban areas. Consequently, Vojvodina needs to develop indigenous, environment-friendly energy resources, such as bioethanol, to meet its transport sector's energy needs. Vojvodina produces about 3 million tons of sugar beet every year. There is a vast potential for bioethanol production from molasses of sugar beet in the country. Bioethanol can be used in transport sector after blending with gasoline, in order to minimize gasoline consumption and associated economical and environmental impacts. This paper presents the assessment of the potential contribution of bioethanol in the transport sector of Vojvodina. It is concluded that 20% of annual gasoline consumption in transport sector could be met from ethanol by the year 2026.     

世界汽柴油标准及供需发展趋势浅析

清洁燃料的发展,尤其是北美、西欧以及日韩等部分亚太地区国家的清洁燃料发展已经非常成熟,无论从标准的制定及实施、技术的开发及应用、国家政策的激励等等方面,都积累了相当的经验,为发展中国家清洁燃料的发展奠定了基础。尽管目前全球汽柴油质量存在差异,但世界汽柴油需求仍处于稳步增长态势,尤其是全球清洁汽柴油需求的比例在逐年提高。主要从全球汽柴油标准、质量以及供需现状等进行调研,分析未来20年世界各地区汽柴油的变化趋势以及需求走向,指出全球汽油、柴油标准虽然因各国汽柴油生产装置结构不同、加工原油种类不同以及受气候等诸多因素影响,各国汽柴油标准中的各种限值有所不同,但是硫含量逐渐降低并趋于无硫化将是大势所趋;指出欧美等国受燃油经济性标准不断提高等多种因素影响,在2030年前的汽油需求将呈现下降,柴油需求将略有增长,而亚太、中东等发展中国家则将处于稳步增长趋势。     

Potential contribution of ethanol fuel to the transport sector of Pakistan

Pakistan is an energy-deficient country. The indigenous reserves of oil and gas are limited and the country is heavily dependent on the import of oil. The oil import bill is a serious strain on the country's economy and has been deteriorating the balance of payments situation. The country has become increasingly more dependent on fossil fuels and its energy security hangs on the fragile supply of imported oil that is subject to disruptions and price volatility. The transport sector has a 28% share in the total commercial energy consumption in Pakistan. About 1.15 million tonnes of gasoline was consumed by this sector during 2005–2006. The gasoline consumption in the transport sector is also a major source of environmental degradation especially in urban areas. Consequently, Pakistan needs to develop indigenous, environment-friendly energy resources, such as ethanol, to meet its transport sector's energy needs. Pakistan produces about 54 million tonnes of sugarcane every year. The estimated production potential of ethanol from molasses is about 500 million liters per annum. Ethanol can be used in the transport sector after blending with gasoline, in order to minimize the gasoline consumption and associated economical and environmental impacts. This paper presents the assessment of the potential contribution of ethanol in the transport sector of Pakistan. It is concluded that 5–10% of the annual gasoline consumption in transport sector could be met from ethanol by the year 2030 under different scenarios. About US$200–400 million per annum could be saved along with other environmental and health benefits by using gasol in the transport sector.     

我国汽柴油消费现状及中长期预测

中国自1990年以来,特别是2001年底加入WTO后,2002~2012年的10年间,汽柴油消费呈现出快速增长态势。其中,柴油消费量以年均8.30%的速度增长,2012年达到17024×104t;汽油消费量以年均8.76%的速度增长,2012年达到8684×104t;消费柴汽比2005年达到最高点2.26,2012年回落至1.96。国民经济综合因素主导着汽柴油消费;而"交通运输、仓储和邮政业"是影响汽柴油消费量变化最大的行业,占到7个汽柴油消费行业消费总量的50%以上,直接决定了汽柴油消费总量的走势;私人汽车保有量的快速增长使"生活消费"领域的汽柴油消费量增速最快;其他5个行业累计消费量变化不大。以1990~2012年汽柴油消费量为基础样本,结合经济和相关行业发展情况,选取影响各行业汽柴油消费的关联参数,选用统计回归和因子分析法对未来汽柴油消费走势进行预测。预计2015年、2020年和2030年我国柴油消费总量分别为2.04×108t、2.21×108t和2.37×108t左右,汽油消费总量分别为1.11×108t、1.32×108t和2.15×108t左右。汽油消费量增速要高于柴油消费量,消费柴汽比将持续走低,2030年可能回落到1.0左右。柴汽比的下降,会导致原有柴油产能过剩,应根据实际情况提前做出调整。     

国际石油市场供求格局正在发生结构性变化

从供给和需求两个方面对国际石油市场格局变化进行了分析。在供给方面,探讨了石油探明储量、产能以及产油主体政策调整等因素的影响。主要观点是:石油储量虽然满足未来数10年的世界石油需求,但探明储量增速明显放缓;世界石油产能增长缓慢,导致剩余产能严重不足;产油主体政策调整进一步制约了产能的增长。在需求方面,探讨了世界经济形势、高油价、能源利用效率、替代能源等因素的影响。主要观点是:世界经济保持较快增长,特别是随着发展中国家工业化程度加深,导致石油需求增长迅速;高油价对世界经济的冲击明显减轻,难以改变石油需求快速增长的趋势;由于石油消费集中在运输领域,节能对减少世界石油需求效果有限;高油价虽能推动替代能源的发展,但石油仍将长期保持主体能源地位。通过供需两方面分析,指出当前世界市场石油供需格局正在发生结构性变化,油价将长期在高位波动。     

A review of hydrogen usage in internal combustion engines (gasoline-Lpg-diesel) from combustion performance aspect

Demand for fossil fuels is increasing day by day with the increase in industrialization and energy demand in the world. For this reason, many countries are looking for alternative energy sources against this increasing energy demand. Hydrogen is an alternative fuel with high efficiency and superior properties. The development of hydrogen-powered vehicles in the transport sector is expected to reduce fuel consumption and air pollution from exhaust emissions. In this study, the use of hydrogen as a fuel in vehicles and the current experimental studies in the literature are examined and the results of using hydrogen as an additional fuel are investigated. The effects of hydrogen usage on engine performance and exhaust emissions as an additional fuel to internal combustion gasoline, diesel and LPG engines are explained. Depending on the amount of hydrogen added to the fuel system, the engine power and torque are increased at most on petrol engines, while they are decreased on LPG and diesel engines. In terms of chemical products, the emissions of harmful exhaust gases in gasoline and LPG engines are reduced, while some diesel engines increase nitrogen oxide levels. In addition, it is understood that there will be a positive effect on the environment, due to hydrogen usage in all engine types.     

Critical analysis on hydrogen as an alternative to fossil fuels and biofuels for vehicles in Europe

In recent times, the global debate on the environment has been centered on CO₂ emissions. This gas is the major cause of the “greenhouse effect” and people are more concerned with the idea that the emissions of this gas should be minimized. As a result of this concern, the Kyoto Protocol was enacted and subscribed to by many countries, setting the maximum gas emissions for them.Fossil fuels are a major source of CO₂ emissions. For some years now The European Union has been seeking to promote some years now the use of biofuels as substitutes for diesel or petrol for transport purposes. As a result of this policy, in 2003 the European Union (EU) Directive 2003/30/EC [1] was developed with the aim of promoting the use of biofuels as a substitute for diesel or gasoline among European Union countries as well as to contribute to fulfilling the commitments acquired on climate change, security of supply in environmentally friendly conditions and the promotion of renewable energy sources.In order to achieve these goals, the directive forces all EU members to ensure that before December 31 of 2010 at least 5.75% of all gasoline and diesel fuels sold for transport purposes are biofuels. European Union countries have social and economic characteristics unique to themselves. The energy dependence on foreign sources, the features of the agricultural sector or the degree of industrialization varies greatly from one country to another. In this context, it is questionable whether the obligation imposed by this directive is actually achieving in its application uniform and/or identical goals in each of the countries involved and whether the actions of the various governments are also aligned with these goals. All these ideas were developed in a previous report (Sobrino and Monroy (2009) [2]).This report examines the possibility of using hydrogen as an alternative to fossil fuels and biofuels from a technical, economic and environmental point of view in the specific case of a European Union country: Spain.     

汽车节油减排措施和政策

交通运输用油是影响我国石油消费量的重要因素．汽车的节油与燃料替代对降低石油需求起着关键性的作用．也是实现经济、社会和能源安全以及过渡到低碳经济的关键。汽车节油效果取决于国家的宏观政策。提高传统汽车能源效率、鼓励替代燃料和新能源汽车开发,以及采用智能运输系统、大力发展公共交通是节油减排的有效途径。提高汽车燃料使用效率．即开发节油型汽车、降低燃料消耗、淘汰油耗较高的老旧车型、提高柴油发动机所占比例等。整合强制性燃油经济性标识、标准和财政激励措施等独立的政策形成一揽子计划．通过相互协同作用来增强效果。替代燃料和新能源是石油燃料的有效补充,应加大投入力度。其中最有前景的是天然气、液化石油气等气体燃料。混合动力、纯电动汽车可借鉴国外先进技术,实现跨越式发展。氢燃料电池汽车应加大研发力度。充分利用智能运输系统和先进的物联网系统优化交通结构和货运行程,大力发展公共交通。     

炼油行业发展清洁燃料面临的形势分析

经济、能源和环境是目前国际社会关注的三大焦点。随着经济形势的逐步向好,全球能源需求,特别是石油需求将持续增长,但同时也面临着治理环境污染的压力,这就需要提高燃油质量,发展清洁燃料。炼油行业面临的全球形势是原油品质趋于劣质化、油价走势依然存在不确定性、油品质量标准日趋严格、质量升级步伐加快、替代燃料发展迅速。当前我国的政策调整有利于炼油行业健康发展。国内"十二五"期间成品油需求刚性增长,预计2015年将达到2.86×108t;原油对外依存度居高不下,预计2015年将达到62%;节能降耗和安全环保要求不断提高;炼油技术有待进一步升级,自主创新能力亟待加强;高标号汽油消费比例不断上升;产品质量标准面临升级压力。基于这种形势,建议制定符合我国国情的汽柴油质量升级标准,政府应对汽柴油质量升级改造提供政策支持;做好加工高硫和劣质原油工艺路线的选择,选择适当的质量升级技术和加工工艺;增加烷基化油、异构化油生产能力,改善汽油调合组分构成;搞好区域资源优化;狠抓节能减排,建设节能环保型炼厂;同时加强与替代燃料的结合,实现资源多元化。     

Multiple criteria evaluation of current energy resources for Turkish manufacturing industry

Energy is the main component of natural resources of developing, as well as developed, countries like Turkey. Because of economic and social developments, the demand for energy, in general, has increased considerably in Turkey. Since Turkey is not an oil or natural gas (NG) producing country, the energy resource usage for energy consumption should be effective. The Turkish industrial sector comprises approximately 36% of Turkey’s primary energy consumption, and the manufacturing industry is the largest industrial sector. In this study, the focus was on the manufacturing industry as the major energy consuming sector in Turkey, and it was analyzed in terms of efficient use of energy resources. The most widely used energy resources in the Turkish manufacturing industry, namely fuel-oil, coal, electricity, LPG and NG were taken into account. Evaluation and selection of current energy resources in this selected industry can be viewed as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem, including human judgments, tangible and intangible criteria and priorities and trade offs between goals and criteria. The analytic network process (ANP), one of the MCDM methods, was used to evaluate the most suitable energy resources for the manufacturing industry in this study.     

Policies to reduce energy use and environmental emissions in the transport sector : A case of Delhi city

This paper aims to analyze factors influencing energy consumption pattern and emission levels in the transport sector of Delhi, and extrapolates total energy demand and the vehicular emissions, using a computer-based software called ‘Long Range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP) and the associated ‘Environmental Database (EDB)’. The study is restricted to passenger modes of transport in Delhi and does not include the freight model. Travel demand is first estimated by analyzing data on vehicle population, average distance travelled, and occupancy level. Next, data on travel demand, proportion of travel demand catered by road and rail, modal split, occupancy and fuel efficiency are compiled within the LEAP framework, in order to estimate the energy demand in Delhi. In addition, emission factors are compiled under EDB module of the LEAP structure to estimate the resultant pollution loading. The LEAP model is run under five alternative scenarios to estimate the current consumption of gasoline and diesel oil in Delhi and forecast the same for the years 1994/1995, 2000/2001, 2004/2005 and 2009/2010, respectively. Under each scenario, the model also estimates emissions of CO, HC, NO_x, SO₂, Pb and TSP. The total emissions are translated into concentration levels attributable to the passenger transport to get an indication of air quality in Delhi. This is accomplished by the use of proportional air quality model. Finally, scenario results are analyzed to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that will reduce the growth of fuel demand and emissions. The prime objective is to arrive at an optimal transport policy that limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution.     

An integral evaluation of dieselisation policies for households’ cars

Reducing energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the transport sector is a priority for Great Britain and other European countries as part of their agreements made in the Kyoto protocol and the Voluntary Agreement. To achieve these goals, it has been proposed to increase the market share of diesel vehicles which are more efficient than petrol ones. Based on partial approaches, previous research concluded that increasing the share of diesel vehicles will decrease CO₂ emissions (see 1 and 18; Zervas, 2006). Unlike these approaches, I use an integral approach based on discrete choice models to analyse diesel vehicle penetration in a broader context of transport in Great Britain. I provide for the first time, empirical evidence which is in line with Bonilla's (2009) argument that only improvements in vehicle efficiency will not be enough to achieve their goals of mitigation of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. The model shows the technical limitations that the penetration of diesel vehicles faces and that a combination of improvements in public transportation and taxes on fuel prices is the most effective policy combination to reduce the total amount of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions among the analysed dieselisation polices.     

Demand for transportation fuels in the oecd: A temporal cross-section specification

The determinates of the demand for transportation fuels interest many researchers and policymakers who are considering various energy plans. This paper uses a random coefficient regression approach to estimate the demand for gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel. For these three fuels a flow adjustment specification is assumed and for gasoline demand a stock adjustment model is also estimated. Individual European country data are used as the data because these data contain wide variations in the price variables, due to the different tax structures of the individual countries. These data are averaged across countries and time to produce firm estimates of the price and income elasticities of demand. For gasoline demand the estimates obtained from the European data are compared with estimates made by other researchers for the United States.     

Energy saving and CO2 mitigation through restructuring Jordan's transportation sector: The diesel passenger cars scenario

The transportation sector is responsible for 37% of the total final energy consumption in Jordan, with passenger cars taking a share of 57% in this sector. Improvement of the energy efficiency of the transportation sector can help in alleviating socio-economic pressures resulting from the inflating fuel bill and in lowering the relatively high CO₂ emission intensity. Current legislations mandate that all passenger cars operating in Jordan are to be powered with spark ignition engines using gasoline fuel. This paper examines potential benefits that can be achieved through the introduction of diesel cars to the passenger cars market in Jordan. Three scenarios are suggested for implementation and investigated with a forecasting model on the basis of local and global trends over the period 2007–2027. It is demonstrated that introducing diesel passenger cars can slow down the growth of energy consumption in the transportation sector resulting in significant savings in the national fuel bill. It is also shown that this is an effective and feasible option for cutting down CO₂ emissions.     

近年我国能源消费变化分析及其对能源发展战略的启示

纵观我国10余年的能源消费变化情况显示出:总量上升过快,2000～2010年间我国能源消费年均增长率达11.58%,而同期世界均值仅为2.81%;能源消费弹性系数过高、能源强度大,2010年达到0.77t标油/千美元,明显高于世界和OECD国家均值,亦高于不少发展中国家。能源消费构成也未得到明显改善,煤炭所占份额高、消费增长快;石油消费量和进口量增长较快,但占能源消费总量的份额却下降;新能源所占份额较低。中国必须改变经济和能源发展方式,调整结构,大幅降低能源强度,进而降低能源消费增速,但近10年发展的回顾提醒我们,其落实存在一定难度。经济增速过快、经济结构失调是能源消费增长过快的主要原因,适中的经济增长率是保障能源消费弹性系数较低、节能指标得以落实的前提条件。煤炭的高效清洁利用是中国的必然选择,同时,对非化石能源的发展要有客观的估计,政府或其他方面的补贴应主要用于科研、用于由实验室向大规模应用之间过渡性的工业化试验,拔苗助长将适得其反。在能源战略上应强调节能减排、总量控制,结构优化、多元互补,均衡发展、因地制宜。把节约能源、降低能源强度作为国策放在能源战略的首位,逐步增大石油,特别是天然气、一次电力和新能源的比例,降低煤炭在能源构成中的份额。要走因地制宜、多元化互补发展之路,多侧面、多方式、多途径地实现能源供应和消费的广义多元化。     

A review on energy pattern and policy for transportation sector in Malaysia

Transportation has dominated global fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have risen in an alarming rate. Gasoline and diesel consumption for road transport have a faster growing rate than other sector and the trend appeared to be rapidly moving upwards in the near future. This has caused much concern in many countries including Malaysia to improve the sustainable energy of this sector. The focus of this paper is to analyze the trends of energy pattern and emission of road transport in Malaysia. On top of that, the review of prospective policies such as fuel economy standards and fuel switching to natural gas as well as biodiesel are summarized in this study. The study found that there is an urgent need to adopt suitable energy policy to balance the energy demand and reduce emission in this sector. This study serves as a guideline for further investigation and research in order to implement and improve the transportation sector.     

Mind the gap The vicious circle of measuring automobile fuel use

We review the circularity between estimates of automobile use, fuel consumption and fuel intensity. We find that major gaps exist between estimates of road gasoline, the quantity most often used to represent automobile fuel use in economic studies of transport fuel use, and the actual sales data of gasoline, diesel and other fuels used for automobiles. We note that significant uncertainties exist in values of both the number of automobiles in use and the distance each is driven, which together yield total automobile use. We present our own calculations for total automobile fuel use for a variety of OECD countries. We comment briefly on the impact of these gaps on econometric estimates of the price and income elasticities of automobile fuel use. We show that improper use of the circularity often leads to gross errors in estimating fuel intensity and other indicators of energy use for personal transport.     

Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique

Since recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model, which we name MOZLEAP, is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure, vehicle ownership and energy intensity. We develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand, the energy infrastructure and economic growth in Mozambique. Our analysis shows that until 2030, primary energy production is likely to increase at least six-fold, and probably much more. This is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand; most of the increase in energy production is destined for export. As a result, Mozambique may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal. We discuss the opportunities and challenges that this resource wealth poses for the country.