Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles

Market penetration models are presented, illustrating that direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could eventually provide industry with substantial return on investment without government subsidy, while at the same time significantly reducing environmental degradation and oil imports. This market penetration model estimates the likely number of fuel cell vehicles that might be sold in the United States over the next three decades, based on the projected costs of these vehicles and the cost of hydrogen compared to other clean vehicles that might compete for the California zero emission vehicle market. Initial results are shown comparing the market penetration, societal benefit/cost ratios and return on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including methanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems.     

Market penetration analysis of electric vehicles in the German passenger car market towards 2030

There is currently intensive public discussion of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and other electric powertrains, such as battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and hybridized combustion engine vehicles (HEV). In this context, the German government has set the target of one million electric vehicles on the road by 2020, and six million by 2030 [1]. The goal of this paper is to identify the possible market share of electric vehicles in the German new car fleet in three scenarios in the timeframe from 2010 to 2030. The VECTOR21 vehicle technology scenario model is used to model the fleet in three scenarios. In the reference scenario with business-as-usual parameters, 189,000 electric vehicles will be sold in Germany by 2020. Scenario two with purchase price incentives from 5000 EUR, high oil prices, and low prices for hydrogen and electricity will result in 727,000 vehicles. In the last scenario with substantial OEM mark-up reductions and external conditions as in the business-as-usual scenario, 3.28 million vehicles will be sold.     

Plug-in hybrid fuel cell vehicles market penetration scenarios

The main objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the market share increase of hydrogen based road vehicles in terms of energy consumption and CO₂, on today's Portuguese light-duty fleet. Actual yearly values of energy consumption and emissions were estimated using COPERT software: 167112 TJ of fossil fuel energy, 12213 kton of CO₂ emission and 141 kton of CO, 20 kton of HC, 46 kton of NO_x and 3 kton of PM. These values represent 20–40% of countries total emissions. Additionally to base fleet, three scenarios of introduction of 10–30% fuel cell vehicles including plug-in hybrids configurations were analysed. Considering the scenarios of increasing hydrogen based vehicles penetration, up to 10% life cycle energy consumption reduction can be obtained if hydrogen from centralized natural gas reforming is considered. Full life cycle CO₂ emissions can also be reduced up to 20% in these scenarios, while local pollutants reach up to 85% reductions. For the purpose of estimating road vehicle technologies energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in a full life cycle perspective, fuel cell, conventional full hybrids and hybrid plug-in technologies were considered with diesel, gasoline, hydrogen and biofuel blends. Energy consumption values were estimated in a real road driving cycle and with ADVISOR software. Materials cradle-to-grave life cycle was estimated using GREET database adapted to Europe electric mix. The main conclusions on CO₂ full life cycle analysis is that light-duty vehicles using fuel cell propulsion technology are highly dependent on hydrogen production pathway. The worst scenario for the current Portuguese and European electric mix is hydrogen produced from on-site electrolysis (in the refuelling stations). In this case full life cycle CO₂ is 270 g/km against 190 g/km for conventional Diesel vehicle, for a typical 150,000 km useful life.     

Simulation of the market penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Korea

As fuel cell technologies are developed, hydrogen‐powered vehicles are receiving more interest. The hydrogen economy, particularly hydrogen‐powered vehicle penetration into the Korean transportation market, is studied in this paper. Vensim, a system dynamic code, was used to simulate the dynamics in the transportation market, assuming various types of vehicles such as gasoline, hybrid electricity, and hydrogen powered. Market share for each vehicle was predicted using the currently available data. The results showed that the hydrogen era will not be as bright as predicted by many people. The main barrier is the fuel cell cost. Thus, in order to expand the fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) market, hydrogen fuel cell cost needs to be dramatically reduced. Hydrogen‐powered FCV cost, including operating and capital costs, should reach $0.16 per kilometer in order to seize 50% of the newly created transportation market. However, if strong policies or subsidies are implemented, the results predicted here will be affected. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biofuels policy and the US market for motor fuels: Empirical analysis of ethanol splashing

Low ethanol prices relative to the price of gasoline blendstock, and tax credits, have resulted in discretionary blending at wholesale terminals of ethanol into fuel supplies above required levels—a practice known as ethanol splashing in industry parlance. No one knows precisely where or in what volume ethanol is being blended with gasoline and this has important implications for motor fuels markets: Because refiners cannot perfectly predict where ethanol will be blended with finished gasoline by wholesalers, they cannot know when to produce and where to ship a blendstock that when mixed with ethanol at 10% would create the most economically efficient finished motor gasoline that meets engine standards and has comparable evaporative emissions as conventional gasoline without ethanol blending. In contrast to previous empirical analyses of biofuels that have relied on highly aggregated data, our analysis is disaggregated to the level of individual wholesale fuel terminals or racks (of which there are about 350 in the US). We incorporate the price of ethanol as well as the blendstock price to model the wholesaler's decision of whether or not to blend additional ethanol into gasoline at any particular wholesale city-terminal. The empirical analysis illustrates how ethanol and gasoline prices affect ethanol usage, controlling for fuel specifications, blend attributes, and city-terminal-specific effects that, among other things, control for differential costs of delivering ethanol from bio-refinery to wholesale rack.     

Market penetration analysis of fuel cell vehicles in Japan by using the energy system model MARKAL

The objective of the present work is to validate the hydrogen energy roadmap of Japan by analyzing the market penetration of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and the effects of a carbon tax using an energy system model of Japan based on MARKAL. The results of the analysis show that a hydrogen FCV would not be cost competitive until 2050 without a more severe carbon tax than the government's planned 2400 JPY/t-C carbon tax. However, as the carbon tax rate increases, instead of conventional vehicles including the gasoline hybrid electric vehicle, hydrogen FCVs gain market penetration earlier and more. By assuming a more severe carbon tax rate, such as 10 000 JPY/t-C, the market share of hydrogen FCVs approaches the governmental goal. This suggests that cheaper vehicle cost and hydrogen cost than those targeted in the roadmap should be attained or subsidies to hydrogen FCV and hydrogen refueling station will be necessary for achieving the goal of earlier market penetration.     

The competitiveness of synthetic natural gas as a propellant in the Swedish fuel market

The road transport sector today is almost exclusively dependent on fossil fuels. Consequently, it will need to face a radical change if it aims to switch from a fossil-based system to a renewable-based system. Even though there are many promising technologies under development, they must also be economically viable to be implemented. This paper studies the economic feasibility of synthesizing natural gas through methanation of carbon dioxide and hydrogen from water electrolysis. It is shown that the main influences for profitability are electricity prices, synthetic natural gas (SNG) selling prices and that the by-products from the process are sold. The base scenario generates a 16% annual return on investment assuming that SNG can be sold at the same price as petrol. A general number based on set conditions was that the SNG must be sold at a price about 2.6 times higher per kWh than when bought in form of electricity. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the running costs weigh more heavily than the yearly investment cost and off-peak production can therefore still be economically profitable with only a moderate reduction of electricity price. The calculations and prices are based on Swedish prerequisites but are applicable to other countries and regions.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of ethanol market penetration

Consumption of ethanol in the United States has increased rapidly over the last few years, fueled by both higher crude oil prices and generous public support measures for renewable fuels. The contribution of ethanol to the transport energy mix varies markedly by state. Heterogeneity in ethanol adoption and market development is investigated using a hierarchical, spatiotemporal model. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is employed for estimation of the proposed flexible model structure. Besides spatial dependence among neighboring states, differential inclusion rates of ethanol are found to be largely determined by national- and state-level biofuel incentive policies, relative gasoline prices, feedstock availability, household median income, MTBE bans, and density of fuel retail infrastructure. Our findings imply that increasing renewable fuel support as well as investing in extending the transportation and fuel retail infrastructure can result in higher ethanol consumption.     

Hydrogen: automotive fuel of the future

This work presents a perspective on the production and use of hydrogen as an automotive fuel. Hydrogen has been hailed as the key to a clean energy future primarily because it can be produced from a variety of energy sources, it satisfies all energy needs, it is the least polluting, and it is the perfect carrier for solar energy in that it affords solar energy a storage medium. Efforts are underway to transform the global transportation energy economy from one dependent on oil to that based on sustainable hydrogen. The rationale behind these efforts is that hydrocarbon-based automobiles are a significant source of air pollution, while hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles produce effectively zero emissions. Besides the transportation area, fuel cells can also reduce emissions in other applications such as the residential or commercial distributed electricity generation. Hydrogen is the perfect partner for electricity, and together they create an integrated energy system based on distributed power generation and use. A discussion on the sources of hydrogen in the near- and long-term future as well as the cost of hydrogen production is provided.     

Improvements in automotive fuel economy

Significant improvements in automotive fuel economy can be obtained by reductions in weight, aerodynamic drag (better streamlining) and rolling resistance (tire improvements), as well as by improvements in engine and powertrain efficiency. As applied to a six-passenger, 3700 lb present-day vehicle powered with a 250 CID six-cylinder engine through an automatic transmission, the improvements in EPA M/H fuel economy for 1% reductions in either weight, aerodynamic drag or rolling resistance are projected to be 0.75, 0.35 and 0.28%, respectively. This is under the constraints of constant performances and equal emissions. The extent to which large changes in these parameters can be obtained, resulting in significant improvements in fuel economy, depends not only upon solving manufacturing and technical problems related to costs but also upon government regulations and customer acceptance in the marketplace. If large reductions in these parameters could be accomplished, along with realistic improvements in engine and powertrain efficiency, significant improvements in fuel economy could be achieved.     

Biofuels in Asia: Thailand relaunches ‘Gasohol’ for automotive use

Thailand is fostering a new scheme to manufacture and distribute ethanol, distilled from the country's vast harvest of starch-rich indigenous agricultural crops for use in transport applications. Richard Mogg, Refocus correspondent describes the scheme.     

Market penetration of fuel cell vehicles – Analysis based on agent behaviour

This paper discusses the market penetration of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in Germany from the perspectives of different stakeholders. There are several economic studies and models describing the introduction of hydrogen-powered vehicles, but most of them focus on only one segment of the car market. Most studies analyse the impacts of FCVs on the automotive industry or the demand for FCVs separately, while others look at the required hydrogen infrastructure, but none of these analyses examines the car market as a whole. The analysis takes into account the actions of the whole market (consumers, automotive manufacturers, filling station owners and policymakers) and their interactions.     

Market power analysis for the Iranian electricity market

The market power problem in Iranian electricity market is addressed in this study. This paper by using various structural indices of market power and reviewing market results analyzes the intensity of competition in Iran’s electricity market and examines whether this market is functioning at an appropriate level of efficiency. In this article the most well-known indices of market power are calculated in two approaches for two different scenarios (current situation and future outlook of generation sector’s ownership in Iran’s power industry). Comparing the results of these scenarios promises more competitive market for the second scenario. Calculating Residual Supply Index for Iran’s power market shows despite admissible values of concentration ratios, due to supply scarcity during periods when the demand is close to the total available capacity, some suppliers can exercise market power even with a relatively small market share. The most important price and load indices like weighted average prices and load/price duration curves of Iranian electricity market during March 2007–March 2008 are also analyzed in this paper. These results imply the existence of economic withholding. The main limiting factors of competition and significant implemented countermeasures for market power mitigation in Iran’s electricity market are also mentioned.     

Price relationships and market integration in the Swedish wood fuel market

Cointegration analysis is applied to the prices of three different wood fuel assortments in the Swedish market: refined wood fuels, forest chips and industrial by-products. For the latter two, the price series are separated according to two consumer categories: district heating (DH) plants and industrial consumers. Two types of analyses are performed. The first concerns whether the fuels within each consumer group can be bundled together as belonging to the same market in terms of product homogeneity. The second involves analysis of the prices of homogeneous fuels in the two consumer categories. It is found that in the DH sector, refined wood fuels should be observed as a separate market because their prices do not share a common trend with the prices of any of the other fuels. This lack of a common trend is likely due to the highly internationalized nature of the wood pellet market. The DH prices of forest chips and industrial by-products follow a common trend, as do the prices paid for industrial by-products by DH plants and industrial consumers. The prices of forest chips paid by industrial consumers and DH plants do not share a common trend. The prices paid by industrial consumers for industrial by-products and forest chips also do not share a common trend. These results highlight both the differences between the markets for unrefined and refined wood fuels and the presence of inefficiencies in the Swedish wood fuel market.     

Hydrogen: Primary or supplementary fuel for automotive engines

Hydrogen, gasoline, and mixtures thereof were compared as fuels for lean-burn engines. Hydrogen for the mixed fuels tests was generated by partial oxidation of gasoline. Hydrogen combustion yielded the highest thermal efficiency at any NO_x level. Gasoline yielded the second highest thermal efficiency for NO_x levels greater than or approximately equal to 2 g/mile. For lower NO levels and high vehicle inertia weights, progressively more hydrogen supplementation was the second most efficient system. For vehicle inertia weights below 5000 lbm (2300 kg), the statutory NO standard (0.4 g/mile) could be met with one lbm/h (0.13 g/s) hydrogen supplementation.     

Development of biofuels for the UK automotive market

The UK transport sector has the fastest rate of growth in terms of primary (and end-use) energy consumption, and is currently responsible for 30% of UK CO₂ emissions. Biofuels could significantly reduce the emissions from the road-transport sector if they were widely adopted. They have been shown to reduce carbon emissions, and may help to increase energy security. There are many different types of biofuels, which are produced from various crops and via different processes. Biofuels can be classified broadly as biodiesel and bioethanol, and then subdivided into conventional or advanced fuels. Such biofuels are assessed in terms of indigenous UK production potential, and whether they are able to meet the domestic take-up targets set by the British Government for the road-transport sector. The various types of biofuels currently available are examined, together with potential future conversion-technologies. In-vehicle performance of these biofuels is then compared with conventional fuels, and their potential carbon savings evaluated. Finally, the main drivers and barriers to the use of biofuels in the road transport sector are discussed.     

Prices,taxes and automotive fuel cross-border shopping

The aim of the present paper is to determine whether differences in automotive fuel prices among neighboring Autonomous Communities (i.e. Spanish political-administrative regions) affect the decisions taken by individuals regarding the region in which to purchase fuel. In particular, the intention is to discover if price increases in certain Autonomous Communities, as a result of the application of the regional tranche of the Hydrocarbon Retail Sales Tax (HRST) has affected fuel purchases in neighboring Communities.In order to achieve the above-mentioned objectives, the monthly purchases of automotive diesel in Aragon between January 2001 and March 2007 is estimated from the fuel price in Aragon, the relation between prices in each of the bordering Communities and Aragon, weighted by density of traffic, the number of vehicles registered in that Community, and three dummy variables representative of the implementation of the regional tranche of the HRST in Madrid, Catalonia, and Valencia. The paper finds empirical evidence to demonstrate a positive effect of the relative prices in the neighboring Communities and vehicle registrations, and also a negative effect of prices in Aragon, upon the acquisition of diesel in this region. In the case of Catalonia, some evidence suggests that the price effect may have been strengthened following the introduction of the regional tranche of the HRST in August 2004.     

燃料油期货市场运行效率实证分析

本文运用EG协整理论和信息份额模型等方法,从燃料油期货与现货价格的长期关系、价格发现、市场投机度、价格风险四个方面探讨了燃料油期货市场的运行效率。结果表明,燃料油期货市场已初步具有了价格发现和套期保值功效,但争取亚洲定价权还需继续努力,并就我国石油期货市场进一步发展应注意的问题进行了分析。     

Measuring competitiveness of the EPEX spot market for electricity

The issue of market concentration in electricity markets and resulting possible anti-competitive behavior of producers is a much discussed topic in many countries. We investigate the day-ahead market for electricity at the EPEX, the largest central European market for electricity. To analyze whether generating companies use their market power to influence prices, we use a conjectural variations approach as well as a direct approach to construct marginal costs of electricity production. Given the available data, we cannot reject the hypothesis that there was no systematic abuse of market power by the suppliers of electricity on the EPEX day-ahead spot market for the years 2007–2010. These results are essentially robust when restricting the sample to high load hours, which are generally considered to be the most prone to market manipulation.     

Thermal analysis and management of proton exchange membrane fuel cell stacks for automotive vehicle

The thermal management of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is crucial for fuel cell vehicles. This paper presents a new simulation model for the water-cooled PEMFC stacks for automotive vehicles and cooling systems. The cooling system model considers both the cooling of the stack and cooling of the compressed air through the intercooler. Theoretical analysis was carried out to calculate the heat dissipation requirements for the cooling system. The case study results show that more than 99.0% of heat dissipation requirement is for thermal management of the PEMFC stack; more than 98.5% of cooling water will be distributed to the stack cooling loop. It is also demonstrated that controlling cooling water flow rate and stack inlet cooling water temperature could effectively satisfy thermal management constraints. These thermal management constraints are differences in stack inlet and outlet cooling water temperature, stack temperature, fan power consumption, and pump power consumption.