考虑决策信息变化的多属性群决策方法研究

动态变化的实际决策环境使得决策者的决策偏好发生变化,进而使决策者在不同时间点的决策信息发生变化,从而影响决策结果。因此,考虑决策者信息变化的多属性群决策问题是一个值得关注的问题。进而提出了考虑决策信息变化的多属性群决策方法,以获得更加符合实际的评价结果。首先,基于专家共识最大化的原则,根据专家对决策单元属性的评价信息构建非线性规划模型求解专家权重,根据专家对决策单元属性评价信息的变化调整专家权重;其次,基于结构熵权法,根据专家对属性的排序信息确定属性权重,根据专家对属性重要性排序的变化调整属性权重,采用EDAS方法对决策单元进行排序。最后,采用供应商评价的算例验证了所提出方法的可靠性及有效性。     

基于多维质量屋的企业合作决策方法

为解决企业合作战略实施过程中的大量分布式群决策问题,在分析企业合作动因基础上,提出一种集成多决策代理的质量屋求解、加权集成群决策结果的多维质量屋决策模型.该模型通过扩展传统质量功能配置(QFD),依据专业领域划分相对独立的决策代理,面向各代理构建出一系列平面质量屋;通过代理置信度加权方法集成多质量屋的求解结果,获得群决策综合结果.最后给出了该决策方法的应用案例.     

序时多指标决策的夹角模糊优选法

针对有时序的多指标决策问题,提出一种新的决策方法－夹角模糊优选法,并给出该方法的原理与步骤,最后以实例说明此方法的应用,为决策者提供了一条新思路。     

融合概率语言的VIKOR方法在中药饮片包装材料 评价中的应用

通过将概率语言术语集（PLTS）融入VIKOR方法的决策过程,解决中药饮片包装材料的评价问题。首先使用PLTS对评价信息进行转化,根据PLTS及相关理论采用概率语言术语集的距离公式计算得到两个PLTS之间的距离;然后结合VIKOR方法构建PLTS-VIKOR多指标决策模型,用以解决多指标决策问题;最后以中药饮片包装材料评价问题为例进行算例分析。研究结果表明：运用概率语言术语集的距离公式计算两个PLTS之间的距离,能够更充分地运用原始评价信息,反映决策者偏好,提高决策效率,得到更稳定的决策结果。     

基于粗糙集理论的加权排序法及其应用

针对粗糙集理论在有限个方案的多目标决策问题应用中存在的缺陷，提出了一种新的加权排序法，该方法既吸取了粗糙集约简属性的优点，又考虑到了各属性问的相对重要性，使得决策过程更符合实际情况。最后给出了该种排序法在武器装备系统论证中的应用，取得了较好的效果．     

主观经验决策与决策行为分析

分析了决策者的决策风格、决策准则、处理目标冲突的态度和方式等主观因素对企业决策的影响，分析了计量决策方法应用于不确定型决策存在的问题和提高主观经验决策质量的途径，提出了用效用曲线模拟决策专家的决策风络和准则进行决策的设想     

模糊理想解法在多准则群决策中的应用

将模糊数学理论引入到不确定环境下的多准则群决策问题中,利用模糊理想解法进行方案排序.用三角模糊数来描述模糊准则权重和模糊准则属性值,给出了使用模糊理想解法进行群决策问题求解的一般步骤;通过供应商选择这一实例验证了本方法的有效性.     

一种面向患者门诊预约满意的决策方法

针对患者给出关于医生和就诊时段的偏好的门诊预约决策问题,给出了一种门诊预约决策方法。首先依据每个患者给出的预约偏好构建其针对医生的偏好向量和针对就诊时段的偏好矩阵,然后分别计算出患者针对医生和就诊时段的满意度,进而将两者集结得到患者在每个就诊时段内接受各医生服务的满意度,进一步地,以所有患者满意度之和最大为目标,构建了门诊预约决策的优化模型,通过模型求解得到最终的预约决策结果。最后,通过一个算例证明了所提出方法的实用性和有效性。     

一种QoS感知的语义Web服务组合群决策算法

针对QoS信息不确定和存在多个决策者的语义Web服务组合问题,基于多属性群决策理论给出了一个自治的语义Web服务组合群决策算法(AGSC).该算法能够对以实数型、区间型和语言型数据描述的复杂的QoS信息进行综合评估,从而为多客户提供正确、高效的决策支持,为其优选出最佳的组合服务执行计划.利用真实Web服务的质量对该算法进行了实验验证,结果表明该算法具有优秀的决策灵敏性和稳定性,并能有效地反映决策群中个体角色的变化.     

紫式决策分析架构模型及其实证研究

探讨工业工程在企业决策的定位,发展系统化的"紫式决策分析架构"和方法论,以辅助决策者有效地从问题定义与架构、目标和决策元素的分清、数据收集、信息整理、方案评估乃至决策支持的完整思维过程,建立决策问题的分析方式和解决方案,以找到最适合的优化决策,提供复杂管理问题数字化系统化之决策依据.具体说明紫式决策分析架构各阶段对应之步骤和方法,并以实证研究案例以检验效度.     

Decision making in the manufacturing environment using an improved PROMETHEE method

Decision makers in the manufacturing sector frequently face the problem of assessing a wide range of alternative options, and selecting one based on a set of conflicting criteria. This paper helps to understand and solve this important problem using a multiple criteria decision making method known as Preference Ranking Organisation Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE). The method is improved in the present work by integrating with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the fuzzy logic. The method discussed in this paper is very effective for decision making in various real-life situations of the manufacturing environment. Four examples are included to illustrate the method.     

自我框架对即时、延时决策的影响

目的拓展自我框架的相关研究,重点讨论在即时、延迟水平下,自我框架对风险决策的影响。方法以整群抽样的方式,抽取160名大学男生,随机分为即时决策组与延时决策组,采用亚洲疾病问题改编的自我框架问卷进行评测。结果自我框架对风险决策的影响部分显著,在即时决策组,自我框架情绪语气越积极,被试越容易选择确定性方案(χ2=4.17,P<0.05);当自我框架确定方案比风险方案情绪语气更积极,被试偏好确定性方案(χ2=6.72,P<0.01)。在延时决策组,自我框架对决策无显著影响。结论不同延迟水平下,自我框架对风险决策会产生不同的影响。     

一类灰色模糊决策问题的熵权分析方法

以灰色系统理论和模糊数学为基础，探讨了不确定型决策问题的特性，分析了一些相关成果中所给方法在直接处理灰色模糊数方面的优势与不足。运用优化理论和熵极大化准则，建立了基于灰色模糊关系的多属性群体决策方法，分别对属性权重向量已知和未知两种情况给出了简便实用的算法，通过算例说明了算法的合理性。     

多指标方案评价中群体一致性的判断和调整方法

基于模糊数学理论,在其它文献的基础上,提出了一种在多指标单方案评价中群体一致性的判断和调整方法。分别构造了隶属函数来表达群决策中的“大多数”和“一致性”这两个模糊变量,并提出“综合权重”这一概念来表示任意一对专家整体的重要性;论述了通过两种不同的途径判断群体一致性以及在一致性程度不满意时调整的方法;通过一个客户订单评价的群决策算例论证了该算法的有效性。     

Robust multiattribute decision making under risk and uncertainty in engineering design

In this article, the problem of choosing from a set of design alternatives based upon multiple, conflicting, and uncertain criteria is investigated. The problem of selection over multiple attributes becomes harder when risky alternatives exist. The overlap measure method developed in this article models two sources of uncertainties—imprecise or risky attribute values provided to the decision maker and inabilities of the decision-maker to specify an exact desirable attribute value. Effects of these uncertainties are mitigated using the overlap measure metric. A subroutine to this method, called the robust alternative selection method, ensures that the winning alternative is insensitive to changes in the relative importance of the different design attributes. The overlap measure method can be used to model and handle various sources of uncertainties and can be applied to any number of multiattribute decision-making methods. In this article, it is applied to the hypothetical equivalents and inequivalents method, which is a multiattribute selection method under certainty.     

Interactive multiobjective optimization with NIMBUS for decision making under uncertainty

We propose an interactive method for decision making under uncertainty, where uncertainty is related to the lack of understanding about consequences of actions. Such situations are typical, for example, in design problems, where a decision maker has to make a decision about a design at a certain moment of time even though the actual consequences of this decision can be possibly seen only many years later. To overcome the difficulty of predicting future events when no probabilities of events are available, our method utilizes groupings of objectives or scenarios to capture different types of future events. Each scenario is modeled as a multiobjective optimization problem to represent different and conflicting objectives associated with the scenarios. We utilize the interactive classification-based multiobjective optimization method NIMBUS for assessing the relative optimality of the current solution in different scenarios. This information can be utilized when considering the next step of the overall solution process. Decision making is performed by giving special attention to individual scenarios. We demonstrate our method with an example in portfolio optimization.     

模糊群决策方法在物流服务商选择中的应用

针对物流服务商选择中评价指标的不确定性和模糊性,提出用三角形模糊数来描述评价指标;构造了基于三角形模糊数和群决策理论的基本算法;并利用模糊数排序公式对决策方案进行排序和择优.最后进行了实例分析.数值结果表明该方法可行且有效.     

Survey of methods to visualize alternatives in multiple criteria decision making problems

When solving decision problems where multiple conflicting criteria are to be considered simultaneously, decision makers must compare several different alternatives and select the most preferred one. The task of comparing multidimensional vectors is very demanding for the decision maker without any support. Different graphical visualization tools can be used to support and help the decision maker in understanding similarities and differences between the alternatives and graphical illustration is a very important part of decision support systems that are used in solving multiple criteria decision making problems. The visualization task is by no means trivial because, on the one hand, the graphics must be easy to comprehend and not too much information should be lost but, on the other hand, no extra unintentional information should be included. In this paper, we survey and analyze different ways of visualizing a small set of discrete alternatives graphically in the context of multiple criteria decision making. Some of the ways discussed are widely used and some others deserve to be brought into a wider awareness. This survey provides a starting point for all those who deal with multiple criteria decision making problems and need information of what kind of visualization techniques could be put to use in order to support the decision maker better.