How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the?mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.     

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland and 3.1+/-0.8K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7m.     

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.     

Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability

Within the framework of a Tyndall Centre research project, sea level and wave changes around the UK and in the North Sea have been analysed. This paper integrates the results of this project. Many aspects of the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to sea level and wave height have been resolved. The NAO is a major forcing parameter for sea-level variability. Strong positive response to increasing NAO was observed in the shallow parts of the North Sea, while slightly negative response was found in the southwest part of the UK. The cause of the strong positive response is mainly the increased westerly winds. The NAO increase during the last decades has affected both the mean sea level and the extreme sea levels in the North Sea. The derived spatial distribution of the NAO-related variability of sea level allows the development of scenarios for future sea level and wave height in the region. Because the response of sea level to the NAO is found to be variable in time across all frequency bands, there is some inherent uncertainty in the use of the empirical relationships to develop scenarios of future sea level. Nevertheless, as it remains uncertain whether the multi-decadal NAO variability is related to climate change, the use of the empirical relationships in developing scenarios is justified. The resulting scenarios demonstrate: (i) that the use of regional estimates of sea level increase the projected range of sea-level change by 50% and (ii) that the contribution of the NAO to winter sea-level variability increases the range of uncertainty by a further 10-20cm. On the assumption that the general circulation models have some skill in simulating the future NAO change, then the NAO contribution to sea-level change around the UK is expected to be very small (<4cm) by 2080. Wave heights are also sensitive to the NAO changes, especially in the western coasts of the UK. Under the same scenarios for future NAO changes, the projected significant wave-height changes in the northeast Atlantic will exceed 0.4m. In addition, wave-direction changes of around 20 degrees per unit NAO index have been documented for one location. Such changes raise the possibility of consequential alteration of coastal erosion.     

The Met Office Hadley Centre climate modelling capability: the competing requirements for improved resolution, complexity and dealing with uncertainty

Predictions of future climate change require complex computer models of the climate system to represent the full range of processes and interactions that influence climate. The Met Office Hadley Centre uses 'families' of models as part of the Met Office Unified Model Framework to address different classes of problems. The HadGEM family is a suite of state-of-the-art global environment models that are used to reduce uncertainty and represent and predict complex feedbacks. The HadCM3 family is a suite of well established but cheaper models that are used for multiple simulations, for example, to quantify uncertainty or to test the impact of multiple emissions scenarios.     

ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan

We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981-2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile-quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081-2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan.     

El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pliocene climate and equifinality

It has been suggested that, during the Pliocene (ca 5-1.8Ma), an El Ni?o state existed as a permanent rather than an intermittent feature; that is, the tropical Pacific Ocean was characterized by a much weaker east-west gradient than today. One line of inquiry used to investigate this idea relates modern El Ni?o teleconnections to Pliocene proxy data by comparing regional differences in precipitation and surface temperature with climate patterns associated with present-day El Ni?o events, assuming that agreement between Pliocene data and observations of modern El Ni?o events supports this interpretation. Here, we examine this assumption by comparing outputs from a suite of Mid-Pliocene climate simulations carried out with the UK Met Office climate model. Regional patterns of climate change associated with changes in model boundary conditions are compared with observed El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation teleconnection patterns. Our results indicate that many of the proposed 'permanent El Ni?o' surface temperature and precipitation patterns are observable in Mid-Pliocene climate simulations even when they display variability in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) or when forced with a modern east-west SST gradient. Our experiments highlight the possibility that the same outcome may be achieved through different initial conditions (equifinality); an important consideration for reconstructed patterns of regional Mid-Pliocene climate.     

A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 (CMIP5). The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene (MP) and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIP5, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change projections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.     

Mapping Sea Level Rise Behavior in an Estuarine Delta System: A Case Study along the Shanghai Coast

Sea level rise (SLR) is a major projected threat of climate change that is expected to affect developing coastal cities located in estuarine delta regions. Shanghai is one such city, being located in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). It is difficult, however, for decision-makers to implement adaptation due to the uncertain causes, magnitudes, and timings of SLR behaviors. This paper attempts to map the causes and magnitudes of SLR behaviors on a decadal scale. We analyze the tidal level records from 11 tidal gauge stations and the corresponding bathymetry measurements around these stations since 1921. We identify three new SLR behaviors along the Shanghai coast due to anthropogenic geomorphologic changes (AGCs), besides the well-known eustatic sea level rise (ESLR), tectonic subsidence (TS), and urban land subsidence (ULS). The first new behavior is regional sea level rise (RSLR), which occurs as a result of land reclamation and deep waterway regulation. The second is regional sea level fall (RSLF), which occurs because the channel bed is eroded due to sediment supply decline in the river catchment. The last SLR behavior is local tidal datum rise (LTDR). Thus, we project that the magnitude of SLR for the Shanghai coast ranges from 10 cm to 16 cm from 2011 to 2030. Clarifying SLR behaviors is important to aid local decision-makers in planning structural and non-structural measures to combat escalating flood damage costs in an estuarine delta system; this field is full of future challenges.     

气候变暖背景下的极端天气气候事件 与防灾减灾

首先概括极端天气气候事件以及"气候极值"的相关定义,并把极端事件分为单要素的极端事件、与天气现象有关的极端事件、多要素极端事件和极端气候事件。在此基础上,总结上述几类极端事件在气候变暖背景下的变化趋势及影响。指出气候变暖背景下我国长江中下游区域强降水事件更趋频繁,我国东部地区高温热浪天气更为明显;东北华北地区干旱趋势增加,尤其在20世纪末期和21世纪初期最为明显;近10年来西南地区干旱频繁发生。为减轻日益增加的重大气象灾害的损失,我国有必要加强高影响极端事件的监测、预警能力建设,同时还必须根据极端天气气候事件变化规律加强工程性防御措施,以防范和应对强降水引发的洪涝灾害和城市渍涝,以及与降水持续不足有关的重大干旱和高温热浪等气象灾害。     

Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model

The impact of a nonlinear dynamic cellular automaton (CA) model, as a representation of the partially stochastic aspects of unresolved scales in global climate models, is studied in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Two separate aspects are discussed: impact on the systematic error of the model, and impact on the skill of seasonal forecasts. Significant reductions of systematic error are found both in the tropics and in the extratropics. Such reductions can be understood in terms of the inherently nonlinear nature of climate, in particular how energy injected by the CA at the near-grid scale can backscatter nonlinearly to larger scales. In addition, significant improvements in the probabilistic skill of seasonal forecasts are found in terms of a number of different variables such as temperature, precipitation and sea-level pressure. Such increases in skill can be understood both in terms of the reduction of systematic error as mentioned above, and in terms of the impact on ensemble spread of the CA's representation of inherent model uncertainty.     

New predictions of extreme keel depths and scour frequencies for the Beaufort Sea using ice thickness statistics

In 1983 Wadhams proposed a technique for calculating scour return periods and pipeline burial depths for scour avoidance for the coastal Beaufort Sea. The technique combined extreme keel depth predictions based on submarine data with the use of observed distributions of scour widths and incision depths, to calculate the extreme incision depth with a given return period for a pipeline of given length laid across the seabed. The Beaufort Sea submarine dataset used to illustrate the application of the technique was obtained in 1976 from a regime consisting largely of multi-year ice. In recent years first-year ice has come to dominate the southern Beaufort Sea, so we replaced the 1976 statistics with data from a winter 2007 survey of the same region by the submarine HMS “Tireless”. Holding other scour geometry parameters constant, we calculated new return periods and burial depths and found large changes which appear to be reflected in the results of recent resurveys of regions subject to ice scour. We reflect on the likelihood that these more moderate conditions will continue to prevail in the future.     

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m--the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.     

平均时距对良态风气候地区极值风速的影响研究

在风气候分析中,风速观测历史数据一般来源于各气象站的归档测量,但不同气象站采用的平均时距并不统一,这导致基于风速观测历史数据的极值风速预测过程存在平均时距的转换问题。该文对美国11座处于良态风气候地区城市气象站记录的风速连续观测数据,进行处理得到不同时距下平均风速序列,并将改进独立风暴法与极值I型分布模型相结合分析得到各重现期的风速极值,分析了平均时距对极值风速预测结果的影响。研究结果表明:在良态风气候地区,一定重现期的极值风速随平均时距的增大而减小,近似呈指数律衰减;平均时距对极值风速的影响规律基本不受极值风速重现期的影响; 1 min平均时距下的极值风速比10 min平均时距极值风速大19%左右。基于这些结果,拟合给出了良态风气候地区不同平均时距极值风速的转换关系式。     

Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet

The future of tropical forests has become one of the iconic issues in climate-change science. A number of studies that have explored this subject have tended to focus on the output from one or a few climate models, which work at low spatial resolution, whereas society and conservation-relevant assessment of potential impacts requires a finer scale. This study focuses on the role of climate on the current and future distribution of humid tropical forests (HTFs). We first characterize their contemporary climatological niche using annual rainfall and maximum climatological water stress, which also adequately describe the current distribution of other biomes within the tropics. As a first-order approximation of the potential extent of HTFs in future climate regimes defined by global warming of 2°C and 4°C, we investigate changes in the niche through a combination of climate-change anomaly patterns and higher resolution (5 km) maps of current climatology. The climate anomalies are derived using data from 17 coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) used in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our results confirm some risk of forest retreat, especially in eastern Amazonia, Central America and parts of Africa, but also indicate a potential for expansion in other regions, for example around the Congo Basin. The finer spatial scale enabled the depiction of potential resilient and vulnerable zones with practically useful detail. We further refine these estimates by considering the impact of new environmental regimes on plant water demand using the UK Met Office land-surface scheme (of the HadCM3 AOGCM). The CO(2)-related reduction in plant water demand lowers the risk of die-back and can lead to possible niche expansion in many regions. The analysis presented here focuses primarily on hydrological determinants of HTF extent. We conclude by discussing the role of other factors, notably the physiological effects of higher temperature.     

Recent trends in Antarctic snow accumulation from Polar MM5 simulations

Polar MM5, a mesoscale atmospheric model optimized for use over polar ice sheets, is employed to simulate Antarctic accumulation in recent decades. Two sets of simulations, each with different initial and boundary conditions, are evaluated for the 17yr period spanning 1985-2001. The initial and boundary conditions for the two sets of runs are provided by the (i) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 year Reanalysis, and (ii) National Centres for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Reanalysis II. This approach is used so that uncertainty can be assessed by comparing the two resulting datasets.There is broad agreement between the two datasets for the annual precipitation trends for 1985-2001. These generally agree with ice core and snow stake accumulation records at various locations around the continent, indicating broad areas of both upward and downward trends. Averaged over the continent the annual trends are small and not statistically different from zero, suggesting that recent Antarctic snowfall changes do not mitigate current sea-level rise. However, this result does not suggest that Antarctica is isolated from the recent climate changes occurring elsewhere on Earth. Rather, these are expressed by strong seasonal and regional precipitation changes.     

Modelling approaches for coastal simulation based on cellular automata: the need and potential

The paper summarizes the theoretical and practical needs for cellular automata (CA)-type models in coastal simulation, and describes early steps in the development of a CA-based model for estuarine sedimentation. It describes the key approaches and formulae used for tidal, wave and sediment processes in a prototype integrated cellular model for coastal simulation designed to simulate estuary sedimentary responses during the tidal cycle in the short-term and climate driven changes in sea-level in the long-term. Results of simple model testing for both one-dimensional and two-dimensional models, and a preliminary parameterization for the Blackwater Estuary, UK, are shown. These reveal a good degree of success in using a CA-type model for water and sediment transport as a function of water level and wave height, but tidal current vectors are not effectively simulated in the approach used. The research confirms that a CA-type model for the estuarine sediment system is feasible, with a real prospect for coupling to existing catchment and nearshore beach/cliff models to produce integrated coastal simulators of sediment response to climate, sea-level change and human actions.     

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time.     

渤海北部冰厚重现值的极大似然法区间估计

不同重现期的年极值冰厚是有冰海区建筑物设计的关键指标。目前在确定设计冰厚时,往往只给出点估计。而求解设计冰厚的置信区间,在某一置信水平下获取设计值的范围,可以确定设计重现值的不确定性,给海工结构物的设计与建造提供指导。采用极大似然方法区间估计,给出了Gumbel分布、三参数Weibull分布、三参数对数正态分布和P-III型分布置信区间的求解过程。利用渤海北部营口和葫芦岛海区历年总冰厚极大值的实测数据,基于以上4种分布型式,采用极大似然法求得不同重现期下冰厚重现值的置信区间,并对各分布型式进行了优选比较。结果表明,选取P-III型分布求解这两地海冰厚度重现值的置信区间较优。     

Integrating biomass, sulphate and sea-salt aerosol responses into a microphysical chemical parcel model: implications for climate studies

Aerosols are known to influence significantly the radiative budget of the Earth. Although the direct effect (whereby aerosols scatter and absorb solar and thermal infrared radiation) has a large perturbing influence on the radiation budget, the indirect effect (whereby aerosols modify the microphysical and hence the radiative properties and amounts of clouds) poses a greater challenge to climate modellers. This is because aerosols undergo chemical and physical changes while in the atmosphere, notably within clouds, and are removed largely by precipitation. The way in which aerosols are processed by clouds depends on the type, abundance and the mixing state of the aerosols concerned. A parametrization with sulphate and sea-salt aerosol has been successfully integrated within the Hadley Centre general circulation model (GCM). The results of this combined parametrization indicate a significantly reduced role, compared with previous estimates, for sulphate aerosol in cloud droplet nucleation and, consequently, in indirect radiative forcing. However, in this bicomponent system, the cloud droplet number concentration, N(d) (a crucial parameter that is used in GCMs for radiative transfer calculations), is a smoothly varying function of the sulphate aerosol loading. Apart from sea-salt and sulphate aerosol particles, biomass aerosol particles are also present widely in the troposphere. We find that biomass smoke can significantly perturb the activation and growth of both sulphate and sea-salt particles. For a fixed salt loading, N(d) increases linearly with modest increases in sulphate and smoke masses, but significant nonlinearities are observed at higher non-sea-salt mass loadings. This non-intuitive N(d) variation poses a fresh challenge to climate modellers.