从理念到行动实现人与洪水和谐相处

在介绍了我国洪水、干旱及渍涝灾害情况、论述了防洪减灾与灌溉排水的密切关系后,从分析我国洪水灾害特点入手阐述了对洪水灾害的认识,结合近年来治水新思路的探索和实践,提出防洪减灾的总体思路和对策措施。     

水土保持与防洪减灾浅议

我国是世界上洪水灾害最严重的国家之一，洪水造成的经济损失和人员的伤亡，在各种自然灾害中居第一位，严重影响社会的安定与国家盛衰，通过分析洪水成灾因素，指出水土流失是造成洪水灾害的重要原因，而水土保持是防洪减灾的根本措施，并对未来水土保持防洪减灾提出了几点建议。     

关于洪水灾害双重属性理论的探讨

为了从根本上减轻洪水灾害，必须要转变传统治水观念和防洪减灾的思路，处理好水与自然生态环境，水资源与社会经济发展的关系，调整与规范人类社会行为。本文对洪水灾害双重属性理论进行探讨。     

防洪减灾对策研究

洪水灾害是世界上最严重的自然灾害。我国洪水灾害发生之频繁,造成的灾害损失之严重是有目共睹的。因此,探索适合防洪减灾对策和措施十分必要。防洪减灾应由"控制洪水向洪水管理转变",努力推进人与洪水和谐相处,采取给洪水以出路、面上防洪措施、洪水资源化等方法来达到防洪减灾的目的。     

防洪减灾经济学研究综述

１概述进入２０世纪９０年代以来，我国发生的几次特大洪水更加引起人们对防洪减灾的思考．人类尝试了各种法制的、社会的、行政的、工程的、经济的手段减少洪水灾害所造成的损失．但是，如果脱离了经济背景，任何其他手段便不可能有所作为，甚至根本不可能实施．而且，只有放在经济学的理论框架内加以分析和比较，才有可能找到现实有效的减灾方法．因此，防洪减灾经济学的研究是有效地配置有限的防洪减灾资源的客观必然．根据中国重要灾害的频度分析及历次灾害的损失估计，洪涝灾害列在首位，因此，防洪减灾在我国的减灾领域中一直处在优先…     

试论长江流域洪水灾害风险管理

长江是一条著名的雨洪河流，雨量充沛，暴雨洪水频繁，洪灾分布范围广泛。长江洪水灾害主要集中在上游的四川盆地和中下游平原地区；丘陵山地亦时有发生，多表现为山洪、滑坡、泥石流和山崩等灾害；近海的长江三角洲地区还有风暴潮灾害。简要介绍了长江流域洪水灾害和长江防洪治理情况，分析了长江防洪减灾当前所面临的形势，阐述了防洪减灾思路的转变方向，总结了洪水风险管理的初步实践成果，提出了进一步加强洪水风险管理的主要措施。     

前言

震惊世界的我国1998年长江和松辽河流域的特大洪水已经过去5年多了,但当年全国军民团结一心抗击洪水灾害的情景至今还历历在目。在深受洪水风险灾害之后,我国政府果断加大了防洪减灾工程和非工程建设的投入,加速进行防洪减灾体系的建设。当今我国各大江河流域的防洪减灾能力有了显著提高,在防洪减灾理念上也有了长足进步。特别是在2 0 0 3年应对淮河流域特大洪水中,更加注重全流域的统筹规划,上、中、下游的防洪体系各司其职,有效调度,较之1998年的以“严防死守”为主的防洪战略前进了一大步。但是,2 0 0 3年淮河、渭河防洪减灾的经历,依然…     

近60年中国典型洪水灾害与防洪减灾对策

在介绍我国洪水灾害基本情况的基础上,重点分析了近60 a来的典型洪水灾害事件及防洪减灾对策,认为我国洪水灾害的基本特征未发生根本变化,但体现出洪水多样性更突出、人类活动影响增强、高坝溃决风险加大及山洪灾害日益突显等新特点和新变化。提出了防洪减灾对策:①切实更新防洪减灾理念,加快向工程与非工程措施并重、防洪工程与抗洪抢险相结合的新型防洪减灾模式转变;②加大科研力度和投入,努力提高气象和水文预报精度;③整合各类防洪资源,实现优化配置,进行科学调度,动态控制水库汛限水位;④加大法律法规的执行力度,规范流域开发行为,坚决打击侵占河道与蓄滞洪区的非法行为;⑤强化高坝大库溃决的风险意识,合理设计、科学管理和运行,建立风险规避机制;⑥加大山洪及其次生灾害的防治力度,加大投入,科学规划,建立预警机制,完善防洪预案。     

关于洪水灾害双重属性理论的探讨

为了从根本上减轻洪水灾害,必须要转变传统治水观念和防洪减灾的思路,处理好水与自然生态环境、水资源与社会经济发展的关系,调整与规范人类社会行为。本文对洪水灾害双重属性理论进行探讨。     

洪水灾害风险管理的理论框架探讨

洪水灾害管理是一项复杂的系统工程，在防洪减灾工程理论与实践中具有重要意义。根据洪水灾害风险的形成机制，提出并系统地阐述了由洪水灾害危险性，洪水灾害易损性和洪水灾害灾情组成的洪水灾害风险结构，在该风险结构基础上把洪水灾害风险管理的理论框架进一步展开为洪水灾害危险性分析，洪水灾害易损性分析，洪水灾害灾情分析和洪水灾害风险决策分析4个具有相互联系的部分。     

Urban and river flooding:Comparison of flood risk management approaches in the UK and China and an assessment of future knowledge needs

Increased urbanisation,economic growth,and long-term climate variability have made both the UK and China more susceptible to urban and river flooding,putting people and property at increased risk.This paper presents a review of the current flooding challenges that are affecting the UK and China and the actions that each country is undertaking to tackle these problems.Particular emphases in this paper are laid on(1) learning from previous flooding events in the UK and China,and(2) which management methodologies are commonly used to reduce flood risk.The paper concludes with a strategic research plan suggested by the authors,together with proposed ways to overcome identified knowledge gaps in flood management.Recommendations briefly comprise the engagement of all stakeholders to ensure a proactive approach to land use planning,early warning systems,and water-sensitive urban design or redesign through more effective policy,multi-level flood models,and data driven models of water quantity and quality.     

经济防洪标准分析方法及应用

经济防洪标准是通过不同防洪标准的防洪效益(或减免的洪灾经济损失)与需要投入的防洪费用的对比分析,选定经济上最优的防洪标准。总结了经济防洪标准的研究现状与一般分析步骤,提出了经济防洪标准计算和运用中应注意的主要问题。通过案例给出了具体分析过程,根据防洪标准与总损失、边际效益费用比的关系,得出边际效益费用比为1时相应的经济防洪标准为70 a一遇。     

基于流域系统整体观的城市洪涝治理研究

针对传统城市洪涝治理洪、涝孤立考虑的弊端,在广州市2020年"5·22"特大暴雨洪涝成因分析的基础上,提出了"洪涝同源"的流域系统整体观,建立了统一市政和水利设计雨型的"大包小、长包短"方法,构建了"城市海绵-市政小排水系统-水利大排水系统"耦合的城市洪涝模拟模型。以广州市某区域洪涝治理为例,研究表明,基于流域系统整体观进行工程布局优化,既满足高度城市化地区经济性和约束性原则,也可实现系统治理、整体达标,有效避免了传统洪涝分治模式存在"因洪致涝、因涝致洪"的弊端,为我国城市洪涝治理提供了新思路。     

基于SWMM和层次分析法的调蓄池预选址方案选择

近年来频发的内涝给城市排水防涝带来严重挑战。调蓄池是城市内涝防治系统的重要组成部分,而调蓄池预选址的选择,关系到调蓄池的效益和成本,也影响后续优化求解。为合理选择调蓄池的潜在位置,根据内涝防治标准,基于SWMM模型,选取积水深度、积水范围、积水时间、调蓄池造价、节点重要性等5项指标,借助层次分析法,建立了量化评价框架,探讨了基于预选址指数的雨水系统调蓄池预选址方案的选择方法,并进行了应用案例验证,研究表明:调蓄池的位置选择对内涝积水削减比例有重要影响;所提出的方法有一定的可行性和实用性,借助该方法可以得到较好的预选址方案。本研究成果可为城市内涝防治调蓄池选址工作提供技术支撑。     

An Integrated Planning Framework for Managing Flood-endangered Regions in the Yangtze River Basin

Abstract

This paper presents an integrated sustainable development decision support system (ISDDSS) for the management of flood-endangered regions in China. The ISDDSS is based on comprehensive analyses of the previous flooding events in China, especially the one that occurred in the Yangtze River Basin in 1998. A large number of conditions including the hydrological features and the economic losses resulting from flooding disasters are addressed. Due to the frequent floods in the Yangtze River Basin, the management of flood-endangered regions in the middle stream area has become one of the most important water-related issues in China. This is mainly because of such factors as the regions' high population density, flat alluvial plain, far-flung farmlands, and strong economic potentials. The flood-endangered regions are greatly vulnerable to flooding in rainy season due to the flat terrain and their direct connections with surface rivers and lakes. Moreover, they were often chosen to retain floodwater in order to protect major cities in the Yangtze River Basin. The ISDDSS is proposed to prevent flooding disasters, to minimize flood damages, and to promote sustainable development in such regions     

城市洪涝灾情评估与风险管理初探

快速城市化背景下城市洪涝问题日趋严重,城市洪涝已成为制约经济社会可持续发展的重要瓶颈。聚焦城市洪涝灾情评估与风险管理,从城市洪涝灾情评估方法、城市洪涝风险分析与区划和城市洪涝风险管理与对策3个方面开展研究,预期成果可为城市洪涝灾害防治提供科学支撑和技术保障。     

An Integrated Planning Framework for Managing Flood-endangered Regions in the Yangtze River Basin

Abstract

This paper presents an integrated sustainable development decision support system (ISDDSS) for the management of flood-endangered regions in China. The ISDDSS is based on comprehensive analyses of the previous flooding events in China, especially the one that occurred in the Yangtze River Basin in 1998. A large number of conditions including the hydrological features and the economic losses resulting from flooding disasters are addressed. Due to the frequent floods in the Yangtze River Basin, the management of flood-endangered regions in the middle stream area has become one of the most important water-related issues in China. This is mainly because of such factors as the regions' high population density, flat alluvial plain, far-flung farmlands, and strong economic potentials. The flood-endangered regions are greatly vulnerable to flooding in rainy season due to the flat terrain and their direct connections with surface rivers and lakes. Moreover, they were often chosen to retain floodwater in order to protect major cities in the Yangtze River Basin. The ISDDSS is proposed to prevent flooding disasters, to minimize flood damages, and to promote sustainable development in such regions     

淮河流域未来情景描绘

淮河流域位于我国气候过渡带,是"大雨大灾、小雨小灾、无雨旱灾"的洪、涝、旱灾害频繁发生的地区.在分析现有防洪减灾策略存在的不足基础上,提出了以流域为单元的国土综合整治防洪策略,协调人口和经济发展与流域资源、环境、生态承载力之间的关系,提出了蓄滞洪区功能调整和产业结构调整的具体措施,以及新的管理思路,描绘了处于困境的淮河流域和蓄滞洪区发展的未来情景.     

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.     

基于MIKE FLOOD模型的西北城市河道橡胶坝群洪水风险分析研究

由于西北城市河道比降大,暴雨和山洪形成河道洪水突发性强,河道橡胶坝群的修建改善了城市生态环境,同时也客观上增大了城市洪水风险.基于MIKE FLOOD水动力学模型,对西北城市橡胶坝群河道典型案例进行了一二维耦合水动力学模型计算,研究了在河道遭遇大洪水时橡胶坝群未塌坝运行的洪水动态演进情况,定量计算了对城市可能造成的淹没情况以及洪灾损失,指明了橡胶坝群未按照防汛预案采取度汛措施而造成的潜在洪水风险,并且提出了降低城市河道橡胶坝群洪水风险的建设管理措施.