Technical and socio-economic assessment for a Si-based low-cost solar cells factory in West Africa

As the cost of silicon-based solar cells has been decreasing sharply in recent years, photovoltaic (PV) systems have dramatically increased their attractiveness in many countries and in mall power systems. This increase of attractiveness can be objectively described in terms of grid parity reached in many areas around the world and a substantial improvement for accessing to electricity without subsidies in places where the power supply is intermittent or, simply, is not offered. One of such places around the world where power supply is limited is West Africa. On the other hand, as the PV industry is maturing and the production capacity is increasing, it is expected that PV companies will place new factories close to markets in highly solar irradiated developing countries, where the demand will grow in the near future. In this work a technical and socio-economic assessment of silicon-based low-cost solar cells produced in a manufacturing factory located in West Africa is exposed. The cost of the solar cells, in terms of USD/W_p is obtained for different West African countries and compared to the production costs of a similar factory operating in China but exporting the cells to West Africa. A sensitive analysis of the final cost of the solar cells varying the cost of key input parameters (mainly labor, electricity, silicon contract price, investment and logistic costs) into a defined range is also exposed. The cost of the solar cells produced is integrated with other sensitive parameters for business competitiveness in a synthetic indicator which offers a ranking of the ten more favorable countries for the location of this PV factory.     

African electricity infrastructure interconnections and electricityexchanges

This paper discusses African electrical energy resources: feasibility studies, interconnection of power systems, the present state of the electric power sector, future expansion of African power systems, and implementation of an African power grid network. It examines involvement of the World Bank with African electricity infrastructure, Grand Inga interconnection projects, the Great Lakes project, and prospects for evaluation of a unified power system in Africa. First, the poorness of African countries and their limited electricity infrastructure is discussed. Objectives for electricity infrastructure development in response to perceived needs is examined and the development challenge for the future, with ways of meeting that challenge defined. Grand Inga interconnections projects are then reviewed. The Democratic Republic of Congo's potential is equivalent to 88400 MW of continuous energy; 42000 MW is located in the Inga region. Development of the Great Lakes interconnected network which links Burundi, Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo is also reviewed. The paper discusses existing power systems in Africa and presents the idea of dividing the continent into five main regions of about the same surface area for electricity trade. Feasibility studies of an HVDC line from Democratic Republic of Congo to Egypt and other studies to South Africa and Europe are discussed. A scenario for energy balance for the 2050 is presented, and export of electricity to neighboring continents, mainly Europe, in excess of 200 TWh/year by 2050 is outlined. Implementation of an integrated African grid network is discussed     

Strategies for regional integration of electricity supply in West Africa

To improve peoples’ living conditions in West African countries national governments have to considerably reinforce the electricity supply infrastructures. Rehabilitation of the existing installations and construction of new power generation facilities and transmission lines require substantial resources which are tremendously difficult to raise due to the region's specific economical and political conditions. This paper examines the long-term prospects for integrated development of the regional electricity industry and evaluates its advantages by using PLANELEC-Pro, a “bottom-up” electricity system expansion planning optimisation model. The evolution of regional electricity market is analysed on the basis of two strategies. The “autarkical” strategy consists in adequate expansion of national power generation systems and the exchanges of electricity between the countries in sub-zones. Another approach referred to as “integration” strategy is recommended in this article. It leads to fast retirement of the obsolete power plants and the integration of new investment projects at the level of whole West African sub-region. The main finding is that the regional integration strategy is capable to bring about additional benefits in terms of reduced capital expenditures, lower electricity supply cost and the enhanced system's reliability compared to the autarkical strategy.     

Optimising trans-national power generation and transmission investments: a Southern African example

Increased integration and co-operation within the Southern African power sector has opened up significant opportunities for reducing the economic and environmental costs of meeting increasing electricity demand in Southern Africa. This paper applies a linear programming model to investigate the economic and environmental benefits of regional integrated planning for electricity, and the impact of including environmental costs in the decision-making process. We find that, from a financial perspective, optimising generation and transmission investments in the region would result in savings of $2–4 billion over 20 years, or 5% of total system costs. Introducing a tax based on the external damage costs of carbon dioxide as part of the decision-making process would result in moderate increases in financial costs (15–20%), but would reduce regional carbon emissions by up to 55% at a mitigation cost of $11 per tonne of carbon dioxide. This raises the possibility of financing regional power projects with Clean Development Mechanism funding, which we explore with an example.     

Re-thinking the power transmission model for sub-Saharan Africa

A vision for a United States of Africa has been advocated since the dawn of independence by, among others, pioneers like Kwame Nkrumah, Gamal Abdel Nasser and Julius Nyerere. More recently the idea gained new momentum, through such initiatives as the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) and the African Union (AU) to create a single market of Africa’s 750 million people that is competitive within itself and within the global economy. This would be achieved through a deliberate, systematic and concerted effort to integrate, upgrade and modernize infrastructure that would offer the required catalyst for economic growth. However, the prioritization by African policy makers of a grand plan to link up the entire African continent’s electric power grid networks would appear to be incompatible with 21st century thinking. The specifications for a centrally managed power grid were made by Nicola Tesla in 1883 and have served the power industry for over 125 years but are now obsolete in the era of digital micro-electronics and smart grid concepts. This paper examines some issues that surround the evolution of sub-Sahara African regional power pools and highlights the anomalies and perhaps wrong timing around the conceptualization and prioritization of grand inter-state power grids. The authors then propose an alternative model that conforms to a new and more sustainable paradigm in electricity supply economics. The proposals are however not meant to provide a panacea but it is hoped that the article will ignite a debate that will lead to a lasting solution.     

Fruitful symbiosis: Why an export bundled with wind energy is the most feasible option for North African concentrated solar power

The idea of generating electricity in North Africa using concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) has been around for some time now but has recently gained momentum through the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) and the formation of the Desertec Industrial Initiative. This paper argues that while the large-scale deployment of CSP in North Africa does not seem economically attractive for either European or African institutions or countries on their own at present, combining domestic use and electricity exports could be profitable for both parties. A detailed economic portfolio covering both solar and wind power plants can achieve competitive price levels, which would accelerate the diffusion of solar technology in North Africa. This portfolio could be financed partially by exporting electricity from solar thermal plants in North Africa via HVDC interconnections to European consumers. Sharing the costs in this way makes it possible to generate solar electricity for the domestic market at a reasonable cost. Some of the electricity produced from the solar power plants and wind parks in North Africa is sold on European energy markets in the form of a long-term contracted solar–wind portfolio, which would qualify for support from the financial incentive schemes of the European Member States (e.g. feed-in tariffs). This transfer of green electricity could help to meet the targets for energy from renewable energy sources (RES) in the EU Member States as the new EU Directive of 2009 opened the European electricity market to imports from third states.     

Sustainable convergence of electricity and transport sectors in the context of a hydrogen economy

This paper analyzes the electricity and transport sectors within a single integrated framework and presents the capabilities of this integrated approach to realize an environmentally and economically sustainable transport sector based on fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). A comprehensive robust optimization planning model for the transition to FCVs is developed, considering the constraints of both electricity and transport sectors. This model is finally applied to the real case of Ontario, Canada to determine the Ontario’s grid potential to support these vehicles in the transport sector for a planning horizon ending in 2025. With a reasonable trade-off between optimality and conservatism, it is found that more than 170,000 FCVs can be introduced into Ontario’s transport sector by 2025 without jeopardizing the reliability of the system or any additional grid investments such as new power generation and transmission installations.     

Energy security and renewable electricity trade—Will Desertec make Europe vulnerable to the “energy weapon”?

Solar power imports to Europe from the deserts of North Africa, as foreseen in the Desertec concept, is one possible way to help decarbonising the European power sector by 2050. However, this approach raises questions of threats to European energy security in such an import scenario, particularly in the light of increasing import dependency and Russia's use of the “energy weapon” in recent years. In this paper we investigate the threat of North African countries using the Desertec electricity exports as an “energy weapon”. We develop and use a new model to assess the interdependence – the bargaining power symmetry, operationalised as costs – of a disruption in a future renewable electricity trade between North Africa and Europe. If Europe maintains current capacity buffers, some demand-response capability and does not import much more than what is described in the Desertec scenario, it is susceptible to extortion and political pressure only if all five exporter countries unite in using the energy weapon. Europe is not vulnerable to extortion by an export cut from only one country, as the European capacity buffers are sufficient to restore the power supply: no single exporter country would have sustained bargaining power over Europe.     

Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants.The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle–Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa.The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, tooAfter the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed – until now – by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years.     

A nuclear-powered North Africa: Just a desert mirage or is there something on the horizon?

All of the North African countries have plans to develop nuclear power. If successful, nuclear energy could supply up to 9–15% of all electricity consumption in the region by 2030. How realistic are these plans and under what conditions can they be implemented? This paper seeks to answer this question by analyzing the motivations and capacities for deploying nuclear energy in the five North African countries by examining both regional and national factors. These factors are compared to similar characteristics of the countries with existing nuclear power programs using a series of quantitative indicators. While all five countries have strong motivations to develop nuclear power, which result from the high growth rates in demand for electricity and energy security concerns, their financial and institutional capacities to deploy nuclear energy vary and are generally lower than in those countries which already operate nuclear power plants. Most likely, North Africa will need to rely on external assistance to implement its nuclear energy plans. The article identifies three scenarios of nuclear power development from the interplay between internal and external factors, particularly the success of renewable energy projects and the ability to attract international investment in nuclear power.     

A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system

In many climate change mitigation scenarios, integrated assessment models of the energy and climate systems rely heavily on renewable energy technologies with variable and uncertain generation, such as wind and solar PV, to achieve substantial decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, these models often include very little temporal resolution and thus have difficulty in representing the integration costs that arise from mismatches between electricity supply and demand. The global integrated assessment model, MESSAGE, has been updated to explicitly model the trade-offs between variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment and its impacts on the electricity system, including the implications for electricity curtailment, backup capacity, and system flexibility. These impacts have been parameterized using a reduced-form approach, which allows VRE integration impacts to be quantified on a regional basis. In addition, thermoelectric technologies were updated to include two modes of operation, baseload and flexible, to better account for the cost, efficiency, and availability penalties associated with flexible operation. In this paper, the modeling approach used in MESSAGE is explained and the implications for VRE deployment in mitigation scenarios are assessed. Three important stylized facts associated with integrating high VRE shares are successfully reproduced by our modeling approach: (1) the significant reduction in the utilization of non-VRE power plants; (2) the diminishing role for traditional baseload generators, such as nuclear and coal, and the transition to more flexible technologies; and (3) the importance of electricity storage and hydrogen electrolysis in facilitating the deployment of VRE.     

Political will and collaboration for electric power reform through renewable energy in Africa

Climate change, in particular rainfall variability, affects rain-dependent agriculture in Africa. The resulting food shortages, in combination with rising population and lack of access to electricity needed for development, require the governments and people of Africa to consider renewable energy sources. One example that has high potential in Africa is solar energy. Many African governments have begun discussions about renewable energy but tangible results have yet to materialize. This research contributes to the governmental efforts by presenting the solar electricity potentials for some African cities. Using photovoltaic geographical information system (PVGIS) data, it is clear that there is enough electricity for urban and rural dwellers if there is political will and if the solar panels are mounted at the suggested optimal angles ranging from 8–34°. The solar irradiation at all sites was higher than the typical daily domestic load requirement of 2324 Wh/m² in urban and rural areas. We provide a strong rationale for political will, collaboration and transparent energy policies that will ensure that life is enhanced through the use of environmentally-friendly renewable energy technologies such as solar power.     

Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER,an aggregated energy system simulation model

The power system is expected to play an important role in climate change mitigation. Variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar power, are currently showing rapid growth rates in power systems worldwide, and could also be important in future mitigation strategies. It is therefore important that the electricity sector and the integration of VRE are correctly represented in energy models. This paper presents an improved methodology for representing the electricity sector in the long-term energy simulation model TIMER using a heuristic approach to find cost optimal paths given system requirements and scenario assumptions. Regional residual load duration curves have been included to simulate curtailments, storage use, backup requirements and system load factor decline as the VRE share increases. The results show that for the USA and Western Europe at lower VRE penetration levels, backup costs form the major VRE cost markup. When solar power supplies more than 30% of the electricity demand, the costs of storage and energy curtailments become increasingly important. Storage and curtailments have less influence on wind power cost markups in these regions, as wind power supply is better correlated with electricity demand. Mitigation scenarios show an increasing VRE share in the electricity mix implying also increasing contribution of VRE for peak and mid load capacity. In the current scenarios, this can be achieved by at the same time installing less capital intensive gas fired power plants. Sensitivity analysis showed that greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector in the updated model are particularly sensitive to the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power and the costs of VRE.     

The influence of generation mix on the wind integrating capability of North China power grids: A modeling interpretation and potential solutions

The large-scale wind power development in China has reached a bottleneck of grid integrating capability. As a result, excess wind electricity has to be rejected in the nighttime low demand hours, when the wind power is ramping up. To compensate for the fluctuation of wind power, new coal-fired power plants are being constructed along with the big wind projects in the North China grids. This study analyzed why adding coal-fired generation cannot remove the bottleneck of wind integration by modeling the operating problem of the wind integration. The peak-load adjusting factor of the regional grid is defined. Building more coal-fired power plants will not increase the adjusting factor of the current grid. Although it does help to increase the total integrated wind power in the short term, it will add difficulties to the long-term wind integration. Alternatively, the coordinated resource utilization is then suggested with the discussion of both the effective pumped hydro storage and the potential electric vehicle storage.     

Integration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in a regional wind-thermal power system

This study investigates consequences of integrating plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in a wind-thermal power system supplied by one quarter of wind power and three quarters of thermal generation. Four different PHEV integration strategies, with different impacts on the total electric load profile, have been investigated. The study shows that PHEVs can reduce the CO₂-emissions from the power system if actively integrated, whereas a passive approach to PHEV integration (i.e. letting people charge the car at will) is likely to result in an increase in emissions compared to a power system without PHEV load. The reduction in emissions under active PHEV integration strategies is due to a reduction in emissions related to thermal plant start-ups and part load operation. Emissions of the power sector are reduced with up to 4.7% compared to a system without PHEVs, according to the simulations. Allocating this emission reduction to the PHEV electricity consumption only, and assuming that the vehicles in electric mode is about 3 times as energy efficient as standard gasoline operation, total emissions from PHEVs would be less than half the emissions of a standard car, when running in electric mode.     

Strategies for optimal penetration of intermittent renewables in complex energy systems based on techno-operational objectives

Renewable energy sources (RES) are mainly used in the electrical sector. Electricity is not a storable commodity. Hence it is necessary to produce the requested quantity and distribute it through the system in such a way as to ensure that electricity supply and demand are always evenly balanced. This constraint is actually the main problem related to the penetration of new renewables (wind and photovoltaic power) in the context of complex energy systems. Moreover the design of optimal energy resource mixes in climate change mitigation actions is a challenge faced in many places.The paper analyzes the problem of new renewable energy sources penetration. The case of Italian scenario is considered as a meaningful reference due to the characteristic size and the complexity of the same.The various energy scenarios are evaluated with the aid of a multipurpose software taking into account the interconnections between the different energetic uses. In particular it is shown how the penetration of new renewable energy sources is limited at an upper level by technological considerations and it will be more sustainable if an integration of the various energy uses (thermal, mobility and electrical) will be considered. A series of optimized scenarios are developed. In each case the maximum RES penetration feasible with the constraints was defined. Then analysis is applied to an energy system model of Italy showing how an integrated development of CHP and electric mobility can aid a further integration of wind and photovoltaic energy power. Finally the primary energy consumption saving possible in case of consistent penetration of intermittent renewables and CHP was identified.     

Context analysis for a new regulatory model for electric utilities in Brazil

This article examines what would have to change in the Brazilian regulatory framework in order to make utilities profit from energy efficiency and the integration of resources, instead of doing so from traditional consumption growth, as it happens at present. We argue that the Brazilian integrated electric sector resembles a common-pool resources problem, and as such it should incorporate, in addition to the centralized operation for power dispatch already in place, demand side management, behavioral strategies, and smart grids, attained through a new business and regulatory model for utilities. The paper proposes several measures to attain a more sustainable and productive electricity distribution industry: decoupling revenues from volumetric sales through a fixed maximum load fee, which would completely offset current disincentives for energy efficiency; the creation of a market for negawatts (saved megawatts) using the current Brazilian mechanism of public auctions for the acquisition of wholesale energy; and the integration of technologies, especially through the growth of unregulated products and services. Through these measures, we believe that Brazil could improve both energy security and overall sustainability of its power sector in the long run.     

Beyond free electricity: The costs of electric cooking in poor households and a market-friendly alternative

The South African government is introducing a poverty-reduction policy that will supply households with a monthly 50 kWh free basic electricity (FBE) subsidy. We show that FBE distorts the energy choices of poor households by encouraging them to cook with electricity, whereas alternatives such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) can deliver a similar cooking service at a much lower cost to society. An alternative energy scheme, such as providing households with clean energy credits equivalent in value to the FBE's cost, could deliver additional energy services worth at least 6% of total household welfare (and probably much more) at no additional public cost; those benefits are so large that they would cover the entire cost of LPG fuel needed to implement the scheme. The analysis is extremely sensitive to the coincidence of electric cooking with peak power demand on the South African grid and to assumptions regarding how South Africa will meet its looming shortfall in peak power capacity. One danger of FBE is that actual peak coincidence and the costs of supplying peak power could be much less favorable than we assume, and such uncertainties expose the South African power system to potentially very high costs of service.     

Governmental policy and prospect in electricity production from renewables in Lithuania

In Lithuania, the generation of electricity is based on the nuclear energy and on the fossil fuels. After the decommissioning of Ignalina nuclear power plant in 2009, the Lithuanian Power Plant and other thermal plants will become the major sources of electricity. Consequently, the Lithuanian power sector must focus on the implementation of renewable energy projects, penetration of new technologies and on consideration of the future opportunities for renewables, and Government policy for promoting this kind of energy. Production of electricity from renewable energy is based on hydro, biomass and wind energy resources in Lithuania. Due to the typical climatic condition in Lithuania the solar photovoltaics and geothermal energy are not used for power sector. Moreover, the further development of hydropower plants is limited by environmental restrictions, therefore priority is given to wind energy development and installation of new biomass power plants. According to the requirements set out in the Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 September 2001 on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market [Official Journal L283, 33–40, 27 October 2001], 7% of gross consumption of electricity will be generated from renewable energy by 2010 in Lithuania. The aim of this paper is to show the estimation of the maximum renewable power penetration in the Lithuanian electricity sector and possible environmental impact.     

The perspectives of energy production from coal‐fired power plants in an enlarged EU

The aim of this paper is to present the current status of the coal‐fired power sector in an enlarged EU (EU‐15 plus EU member candidate states) in relation with the main topics of the European Strategy for the energy production and supply. It is estimated that 731 thermoelectric units, larger than 100 MW_e, are operating nowadays, and their total installed capacity equals to 200.7 GW_e. Coal contribution to the total electricity generation with reference to other fuel sources, is by far more intensive in the non‐EU part (EU member candidate states), compared to the EU member states. It is expected that even after the enlargement, the European Union will strongly being related to coal. Enlargement will bring additional factors into play in order to meet the requirements of rising consumption, growing demand for conventional fuels and increasing dependence on imports. Besides the technology, boiler size, efficiency, age and environmental performance will determine the necessities of the coal‐fired power sector in each country. Depending on the case, lifetime extension measures in operating coal‐fired power plants or clean coal technologies can play an important role towards the energy sector restructuring. Low efficiency values in the non‐EU coal‐fired units and heavily aged power plants in EU countries will certainly affect decisions in favour of upgrading or reconstruction. The overall increase of efficiency, the reduction of harmful emissions from generating processes and the co‐combustion of coal with biomass and wastes for generating purposes indicate that coal can be cleaner and more efficient. Additionally, plenty of rehabilitation projects based on CCT applications, have already been carried out or are under progress in the EU energy sector. The proclamations of the countries' energy policies in the coming decades, includes integrated renovation concepts of the coal‐fired power sector. Further to the natural gas penetration in the electricity generation and CO₂ sequestration and underground storage, the implementation of CCT projects will strongly contribute to the reduction of CO₂ emissions in the European Union, according to the targets set in the Kyoto protocol. In consequence, clean coal technologies can open up new markets not only in the EU member candidate states, but also in other parts of the world. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.