Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission

Alternative energy technologies (AETs) have emerged as a solution to the challenge of simultaneously meeting rising electricity demand while reducing carbon emissions. However, as all AETs are responsible for some greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their construction, carbon emission “Ponzi Schemes” are currently possible, wherein an AET industry expands so quickly that the GHG emissions prevented by a given technology are negated to fabricate the next wave of AET deployment. In an era where there are physical constraints to the GHG emissions the climate can sustain in the short term this may be unacceptable. To provide quantitative solutions to this problem, this paper introduces the concept of dynamic carbon life-cycle analyses, which generate carbon-neutral growth rates. These conceptual tools become increasingly important as the world transitions to a low-carbon economy by reducing fossil fuel combustion. In choosing this method of evaluation it was possible to focus uniquely on reducing carbon emissions to the recommended levels by outlining the most carbon-effective approach to climate change mitigation. The results of using dynamic life-cycle analysis provide policy makers with standardized information that will drive the optimization of electricity generation for effective climate change mitigation.     

Analysis of possible geological storage of CO2 and nuclear waste in Lithuania

Lithuania is currently dealing with two major problems in energy sector: final closure of Ignalina Nuclear Power plant (Ignalina NPP) in the end of 2009 and nuclear waste disposal and climate change mitigation issues having in mind replacement of nuclear capacities with fossil one and anticipated increase in GHG emissions. Lithuania has two options: to construct new nuclear power plant also taking into account nuclear waste disposal issue or to burn fossil fuel and to apply carbon capture and storage (CCS) for GHG emission reduction. These two options need to be investigated in Lithuania based on various studies conducted in Lithuania and abroad dealing with geological carbon storage and nuclear waste disposal potentials. There are no long-lived nuclear waste geological storage capacities in Lithuania and there is no pilot project on CCS developed in Lithuania. The aim of the article is to analyse and compare geological carbon and nuclear waste storage opportunities in Lithuania and to assess nuclear and carbon capture and storage technologies in terms of costs.     

The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming

Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in material quantities, globally, is a critical element in limiting the impacts of global warming. GHG emissions associated with energy extraction and use are a major component of any strategy addressing climate change mitigation. Non-emitting options for electrical power and liquid transportation fuels are increasingly considered key components of an energy system with lower overall environmental impacts. Renewable energy technologies (RETs) as well as biofuels technologies have been accelerating rapidly during the past decades, both in technology performance and cost-competitiveness — and they are increasingly gaining market share. These technology options offer many positive attributes, but also have unique cost/benefit trade-offs, such as land-use competition for bioresources and variability for wind and solar electric generation technologies. This paper presents a brief summary of status, recent progress, some technological highlights for RETs and biofuels, and an analysis of critical issues that must be addressed for RETs to meet a greater share of the global energy requirements and lower GHG emissions.     

Assessing the economic efficiency of bioenergy technologies in climate mitigation and fossil fuel replacement in Austria using a techno-economic approach

The core issues of the Austrian energy policy agenda include reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. Within this study, the costs of GHG mitigation and fossil fuel replacement (abatement costs) of established and upcoming bioenergy technologies for heat, electricity and transport fuel production are assessed. Sensitivity analyses and projections up to 2030 illustrate the effect of dynamic parameters on specific abatement costs.     

Climate consequences of low-carbon fuels: The United States Renewable Fuel Standard

A common strategy for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use is to increase the supply of low-carbon alternatives. However, increasing supply tends to lower energy prices, which encourages additional fuel consumption. This “fuel market rebound effect” can undermine climate change mitigation strategies, even to the point where efforts to reduce GHG emissions by increasing the supply of low-carbon fuels may actually result in increased GHG emissions. Here, we explore how policies that encourage the production of low-carbon fuels may result in increased GHG emissions because the resulting increase in energy use overwhelms the benefits of reduced carbon intensity. We describe how climate change mitigation strategies should follow a simple rule: a low-carbon fuel with a carbon intensity of X% that of a fossil fuel must displace at least X% of that fossil fuel to reduce overall GHG emissions. We apply this rule to the United States Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2). We show that absent consideration of the fuel market rebound effect, RFS2 appears to reduce GHG emissions, but once the fuel market rebound effect is factored in, RFS2 actually increases GHG emissions when all fuel GHG intensity targets are met.     

New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies.     

Identification of optimal strategies for sustainable energy management in Taiwan

In this study, an optimization model was developed for identifying optimal strategies in adjusting the existing fossil fuel‐based energy structure in Taiwan. In this model, minimization of the total system cost was adopted as the objective function, which was subject to a series of constraints related to energy demand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission restriction, and energy balance. Feasibility of several potential energy structures was also evaluated through tradeoff analysis between energy system costs and GHG emission targets. Three scenarios were established under several GHG emission restriction targets and potential nuclear power expansion options. Under the three scenarios, optimal energy allocation patterns were generated. In terms of the total energy system cost, the scenario that restricted GHG emissions and nuclear power growth would result in the highest one, with an average annual increase of 4.2% over the planning horizon. Also, the results indicated that the energy supply structure would be directly influenced by energy cost and GHG emission reduction targets. Scenario 2 would lead to the greatest dependence on clean energy, which would take up 41.8% in 2025. In comparison, with no restriction on nuclear energy, it would replace several energy sources and contribute to 34.0% of the total energy consumption. Significant reduction in GHG emission could be identified under scenario 2 due to the replacement of conventional fossil fuels with clean energies. Under scenario 3, GHG emission would be significantly reduced due to the adoption of nuclear power. After 2015, energy structure in Taiwan would be slightly adjusted due to synthetic impacts of energy demand growth and GHG emission restriction. The results also indicated that further studies would be necessarily needed for evaluating impacts and feasibilities of clean energy and nuclear power utilization in Taiwan. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Life-cycle energy efficiency estimation of large-scale ammonia fuel energy storage system

本文讨论了氨作为燃料使用会具备与传统化石燃料显著不同的环境效益,并进一步探讨了氨作为储能介质的特点,包括储能密度和规模大、受地理条件约束小、便于运输存储等。本文还针对目前的合成氨路线从理论分析和工业实际两个方面对合成效率进行了估算和评价。针对目前国内核能、风能、太阳能等清洁能源电力的低谷或弃电问题,建议采用以制氨的方式存储或外运,以便于在电力不足时将其用于发电。建议并评估了几条基于制氨并发电的路线,并基于现有氨燃料的发电效率计算了各路线在全生命周期内的总储能效率（25%～40%）和以电换电的效率[2.5～4.0(度/10度）]。     

Comparative assessment of future power generation technologies based on carbon price development

The long-term assessment of new electricity generation was performed for various long-run policy scenarios taking into account two main criteria: private costs and external GHG emission costs. Such policy oriented power generation technologies assessment based on carbon price and private costs of technologies can provide information on the most attractive future electricity generation technologies taking into account climate change mitigation targets and GHG emission reduction commitments for world regions.Analysis of life cycle GHG emissions and private costs of the main future electricity generation technologies performed in this paper indicated that biomass technologies except large scale straw combustion technologies followed by nuclear have the lowest life cycle GHG emission. Biomass IGCC with CO₂ capture has even negative life cycle GHG emissions. The cheapest future electricity generation technologies in terms of private costs in long-term perspective are: nuclear and hard coal technologies followed by large scale biomass combustion and biomass CHPs. The most expensive technologies in terms of private costs are: oil and natural gas technologies. As the electricity generation technologies having the lowest life cycle GHG emissions are not the cheapest one in terms of private costs the ranking of technologies in terms of competitiveness highly depend on the carbon price implied by various policy scenarios integrating specific GHG emission reduction commitments taken by countries and climate change mitigation targets.     

Embedded energy and total greenhouse gas emissions in final consumptions within Thailand

In order to quantify the total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from different commodities, the contribution of emissions in all subprocess chains has to be considered. In embedded energy analysis, the higher order production processes are usually truncated due to a lack of data. To fill the truncated subprocesses up to infinite process chains, energy intensities and GHG emission factors of various final consumptions in the economy evaluated by the Input–Output Analysis (IOA) must be applied. The direct GHG emissions in final consumptions in Thailand are evaluated by imitating the approach in the energy sector of the revised 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for national GHG inventories. The indirect energy and indirect emissions are evaluated by using the 1998 Input–Output (I–O) table. Results are presented of emissions in the main process, indirect processes, and on each subprocess chain order. The trend of energy intensity and emission factors of all final consumptions for 1995, 1998, 2001 and 2006 are also presented. Results show that the highest energy intensive sector is the electricity sector where fossil fuel is primarily used, but the highest total GHG emitter is the cement industry where the major sources of the emissions are industrial processes and the combustion of fossil fuels. Implication of the emission factors on electricity generating technologies shows that various cleaner electricity generating technologies, including renewable energy technology, could help in global GHG mitigation.     

Costing electricity supply scenarios: A case study of promoting renewable energy technologies on Rodriguez, Mauritius

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) import increasing amounts of fossil fuel to meet their rising energy demand. This places an unnecessary financial burden on their budget, as abundant Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are often available. The introduction of Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) can harness these resources, providing sufficient electricity as well as maintaining a high degree of independence. However, one of the principle barriers to their application has been the high cost of installing them. This paper argues that the economics of instigating RETs on SIDS are potentially favourable over the application of fossil fuel technologies if the full life-cycle costs are considered. A case study conducted in 2001, modelling three alternative electricity provision scenarios on Rodrigues, Mauritius supports these assumptions. The findings are based on a comparative economic model using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analyses, as well as a variety of sensitivity analyses, to predict changing economic environments. This provides crucial guidance for the formulation of energy policy and planning. This work is part of a tripartite research project that connects the economics with renewable resources assessment and a multi criteria analysis investigating the social and environmental consequences to provide a transferable framework assessment of renewable energy supply options on SIDS.     

Viability of CCS: A broad-based assessment for Malaysia

Climate change is fast becoming the major environmental and energy concern worldwide. There is a major dilemma between the continued reliance on fossil fuel for our energy supply and the pressing need to address the problem of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from combustion process. This paper reviews the potential for carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a part of the climate change mitigation strategy for the Malaysian electricity sector using a technology assessment framework. The nation's historical trend of high reliance on fossil fuel for its electricity sector makes it a prime candidate for CCS adoption. The suitability and practicality of the technology was reviewed from a broad perspective with consideration of Malaysia-specific conditions. It is apparent from this assessment that CCS has the potential to play an important role in Malaysia's climate change mitigation strategy provided that key criteria are fulfilled.     

The energy and environmental implications of UK more electric transition pathways: A whole systems perspective

Electricity generation contributes a large proportion of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom (UK), due to the predominant use of fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) inputs. Indeed, the various power sector technologies [fossil fuel plants with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power stations, and renewable energy technologies (available on a large and small {or domestic} scale)] all involve differing environmental impacts and other risks. Three transition pathways for a more electric future out to 2050 have therefore been evaluated in terms of their life-cycle energy and environmental performance within a broader sustainability framework. An integrated approach is used here to assess the impact of such pathways, employing both energy analysis and environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA), applied on a ‘whole systems’ basis: from ‘cradle-to-gate’. The present study highlights the significance of ‘upstream emissions’, in contrast to power plant operational or ‘stack’ emissions, and their (technological and policy) implications. Upstream environmental burdens arise from the need to expend energy resources in order to deliver, for example, fuel to a power station. They include the energy requirements for extraction, processing/refining, transport, and fabrication, as well as methane leakage that occurs in coal mining activities – a major cotribution – and from natural gas pipelines. The impact of upstream emissions on the carbon performance of various low carbon electricity generators [such as large-scale combined heat and power (CHP) plant and CCS] and the pathways distinguish the present findings from those of other UK analysts. It suggests that CCS is likely to deliver only a 70% reduction in carbon emissions on a whole system basis, in contrast to the normal presumption of a 90% reduction. Similar results applied to other power generators.     

Current utilization and future prospects of emerging renewable energy applications in Canada

Canada has vast renewable energy resources due to its extensive geography and traditionally they have played an important role, particularly prior to the turn of the 20th century. Public interest in new renewable energy technologies (RETs) emerged and grew during the oil shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s. Even though many Canadian provinces had been deriving most of their electricity from hydroelectric power, the first oil crises of the 1970s ignited a strong interest in all forms of renewable energy. Though Canada has huge prospects for low-impact RETs, it is falling behind most industrialized nations in the expansion of these technologies due to a lack of supporting market structures and the absence of appropriate government policies and initiatives. This review focuses on only applications of low-impact emerging RETs that refer to wind, solar, small hydro, geothermal, marine and modern biomass energy. Today, these technologies are mostly in the dissemination, demonstration and early stage of commercialization phase in Canada and currently they contribute less than 1% of the total primary energy consumption. It is evident from the past experience of Europe and Japan that environmentally benign RETs can contribute significantly toward Canada’s Kyoto target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by displacing the use of conventional fossil fuels, and help Canada take an essential step toward a sustainable energy future. In this paper, the current energy utilization scenario of Canada has been analyzed and an array of emerging RET applications has been presented under the category of: (i) green power technologies; (ii) green heat technologies; and (iii) green fuel technologies.     

Carbon capture and storage potential in coal-fired plant in Malaysia—A review

Secure, reliable and affordable energy supplies are necessary for sustainable economic growth, but increases in associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and the associated risk of climate change are a cause of major concern. Experts have projected that the CO₂ emissions related to the energy sector will increase 130% by 2050 in the absence of new policies or supply constraints as a result of increased fossil fuel usage. To address this issue will require an energy technology revolution involving greater energy efficiency, increased renewable energies and nuclear power, and the near-decarbonisation of fossil fuel-based power generation. Nonetheless, fossil fuel usage is expected to continue to dominate global energy supply. The only technology available to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from large-scale fossil fuel usage is carbon capture and storage (CCS), an essential part of the portfolio of technologies that is needed to achieve deep global emission reductions. However, CCS technology faces numerous issues and challenges before it can be successfully deployed. With Malaysia has recently pledged a 40% carbon reduction by 2020 in the Copenhagen 2009 Climate Summit, CCS technology is seen as a viable option in order to achieve its target. Thus, this paper studies the potential and feasibility of coal-fired power plant with CCS technology in Malaysia which includes the choices of coal plants and types of capture technologies possible for implementation.     

Fuel-cycle analysis of early market applications of fuel cells: Forklift propulsion systems and distributed power generation

Forklift propulsion systems and distributed power generation are identified as potential fuel cell applications for near-term markets. This analysis examines fuel cell forklifts and distributed power generators, and addresses the potential energy and environmental implications of substituting fuel-cell systems for existing technologies based on fossil fuels and grid electricity. Performance data and the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model are used to estimate full fuel-cycle emissions and use of primary energy sources. The greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of fuel-cell forklifts using hydrogen from steam reforming of natural gas are considerably lower than those using electricity from the average U.S. grid. Fuel cell generators produce lower GHG emissions than those associated with the U.S. grid electricity and alternative distributed combustion technologies. If fuel-cell generation technologies approach or exceed the target efficiency of 40%, they offer significant reduction in energy use and GHG emissions compared to alternative combustion technologies.     

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country.     

Assessment of mitigation options for the energy system in Bulgaria

The Bulgarian greenhouse gas (GHG) emission profile reveals the energy sector as the most significant emission source and also as an area where great potential for GHG emissions reduction exists. Mitigation options in energy supply were selected considering the potential of fossil fuel substitution and new energy technology implementation in the context of the existing structure of energy system and projects for mid- and long-term development. Basically three modules of ENPEP were used: BALANCE — to calculate the energy flows and energy cost from primary fuel resources and fuel import to energy end-use, IMPACT — to calculate GHG emissions, and ELECTRIC — to project the electric system long-term development. Different mitigation measures combined in four scenarios were developed. The integrated mitigation scenario incorporated a mix of mitigation measures in the energy demand and supply. Implementation of CO₂ mitigation measures both in energy demand and energy supply would reduce the 2020 emission level by 34.3 Tg (29.1%), and by 544.2 Tg (21.7%) for the entire study period 2000 – 2020, compared to the baseline scenario.     

Investigating the need of nuclear power plants for sustainable energy in Iran

Over the decades, the consumption of all types of energy such as electricity increased rapidly in Iran. Therefore, the government decided to redevelop its nuclear program to meet the rising electricity demand and decrease consumption of fossil fuels. In this paper, the effect of this policy in four major aspects of energy sustainability in the country, including energy price, environmental issues, energy demand and energy security have been verified. To investigate the relative cost of electricity generated in each alternative generator, the simple levelized electricity cost was selected as a method. The results show that electricity cost in fossil fuel power plants presumably will be cheaper than nuclear. Although the usage of nuclear reactor to generate power is capable of decreasing hazardous emissions into the environment, there are many other effective policies and technologies that can be implemented. Energy demand growth in the country is very high; neither nuclear nor fossil fuel cannot currently cope with the growth. So, the only solution is rationalizing energy demand by price amendment and encouraging energy efficiency. The major threats of energy security in Iran are high energy consumption growth and economic dependency on crude oil export. Though nuclear energy including its fuel cycle is Iran's assured right, constructing more nuclear power plants will not resolve the energy sustainability problems. In fact, it may be the catalyst for deterioration since it will divert capital and other finite resources from top priority and economic projects such as energy efficiency, high technology development and energy resources management.     

How carbon pricing changes the relative competitiveness of low-carbon baseload generating technologies

There is wide public debate about which electricity generating technologies will best be suited to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Sometimes this debate ignores real-world practicalities and leads to over-optimistic conclusions. Here we define and apply a set of fit-for-service criteria to identify technologies capable of supplying baseload electricity and reducing GHGs by amounts and within the timescale set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Only five current technologies meet these criteria: coal (both pulverised fuel and integrated gasification combined cycle) with carbon capture and storage (CCS); combined cycle gas turbine with CCS; Generation III nuclear fission; and solar thermal backed by heat storage and gas turbines. To compare costs and performance, we undertook a meta-review of authoritative peer-reviewed studies of levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and life-cycle GHG emissions for these technologies. Future baseload electricity technology selection will be influenced by the total cost of technology substitution, including carbon pricing, which is synergistically related to both LCOE and emissions. Nuclear energy is the cheapest option and best able to meet the IPCC timetable for GHG abatement. Solar thermal is the most expensive, while CCS will require rapid major advances in technology to meet that timetable.