贝叶斯网络分类器结构与变量分布的差异性分析

为了提高鉴别式学习策略训练的贝叶斯网络分类器的分类精度,分析了贝叶斯网络结构与数据中变量分布之间的差异对贝叶斯网络分类器性能的影响,实验以网络结构的实际联合概率分布的树型近似描述为基准,删除在条件对数似然函数极大化过程中不起作用的边,生成具有同一联合概率分布的不同描述程度的网络结构.实验结果表明,只有当网络结构表现力不足时,鉴别式参数学习才能起积极作用;而当网络结构中有多余的边时,反而容易受其制约.从而验证了网络中多余的边对分类器性能没有影响的观点是片面的.     

贝叶斯神经网络在蒸气管网预测中的应用

蒸气管网是具有典型大时滞特点的非线性网络系统结构,提高管网运行预测能力,对管网的安全高效运行有很好的指导意义。贝叶斯神经网络具有良好的泛化能力和准确计算能力,在网络目标函数中引入表示网络结构复杂性的惩罚项,以便能够在训练优化过程中降低网络结构的复杂性,达到避免网络过拟合的目的。实例验证表明,模型计算结果和泛化能力均有良好表现,优于传统BP算法计算性能,可提高企业蒸气管网运行管理水平,对流程工业节能减排建设有一定的帮助。     

贝叶斯网络在高炉铁水硅含量预测中的应用

应用贝叶斯网络对高炉铁水硅含量进行预测。首先阐述了贝叶斯网络的数学描述,在此基础上给出贝叶斯网络预测公式的一种简化形式。然后建立高炉铁水硅含量的贝叶斯网络预测模型,对山东莱钢1 号高炉在线采集的2 000炉数据进行网络学习,离线预测取得了较好的效果。与神经网络等其他方法相比,它更适合解析高炉过程,而且透明的推理过程对高炉工长判断炉温变化趋势具有指导意义。     

基于粒子群优化的过程神经网络学习算法

基于粒子群优化为过程神经元网络提出了一种新的学习算法.新算法在对网络输入函数和连接权函数进行正交基函数展开后,将网络中的结构参数和其他参数整合成一个粒子,再用粒子群优化算法进行全局优化.新算法不依赖于函数梯度信息,不需要手动调节网络结构.粒子群优化具有良好的全局优化性能和收敛性能,保证了过程神经元网络的全局学习能力和新学习算法的收敛能力,更好地发挥过程神经网络的逼近性能.两个实际预测问题的实验结果表明,基于粒子群优化的学习算法比现有的基于梯度的基函数展开方法以及误差反传神经网络模型具有更好的预测精度.     

基于深度学习的热连轧轧制力预测

轧制力预报一直是热连轧过程控制模型的核心,浅层神经网络对复杂函数的表示能力有限,而深度学习模型通过学习一种深层非线性网络结构,实现复杂函数逼近。利用深度学习框架TensorFlow,构建了一种深度前馈神经网络轧制力模型,采用BP算法计算网络损失函数的梯度,运用融入Mini-batch策略的Adam优化算法进行参数寻优,采用Early-stopping、参数惩罚和Dropout正则化策略提高模型的泛化能力。基于上述建模策略,针对宝钢1880热连轧精轧机组的大量轧制历史数据进行了建模实验,对比分析了4种不同结构的前馈网络预测精度。结果表明,相比于传统SIMS轧制力模型,深度神经网络可实现轧制力的高精度预测,针对所有机架的预测精度平均提升21.11%。     

一种基于自适应线性神经网络的瞬时谐波检测方法

介绍了线性神经网络的原理与结构、线性神经网络学习算法的计算步骤和基于线性神经网络预测的瞬时谐波检测原理图,提出了基于线性网络预测的实时谐波检测的网络结构和仿真程序,仿真波形表明检测系统可在0.3s之后就跟随上基波的变化。     

小样本贫信息条件下高炉冶炼烧结终点组合预测法

由于烧结过程具有不确定性、多变量耦合、时变时滞的特点,并且烧结终点受多种因素的影响,采用传统控制方法难以将烧结终点控制在要求的范围内,提出应用支持向量机优良的时序预测性能,以及贝叶斯理论能够利用样本信息和先验知识来简化预测模型和优化参数的特性,建立了贝叶斯支持向量机烧结终点的预报模型.首先对烧结终点的机理分析,后分别叙述贝叶斯框架理论和LS-SVM算法,并将贝叶斯证据框架应用于最小二乘支持向量机模型参数的自动选择,建立起时间序列的烧结终点非线性预测模型.在贝叶斯推断的第一层,进行模型参数的选择;在贝叶斯推断的第二层,进行模型超参数的选择;在贝叶斯推断的第三层,估计模型核参数,然后利用贝叶斯最小二乘支持向量机算法(LS-SVM)对烧结终点进行预测,并在此基础上构造了烧结终点的贝叶斯最小二乘支持向量机模型.仿真结果和多种模型比较表明,本模型能在小样本贫信息条件下对烧结终点做出比较准确的预测,并具有预测精度高、所需样本少、计算简便等优点,取得了令人满意的结果.     

自动驾驶路测与人工驾驶事故致因影响对比分析

明晰自动驾驶道路测试事故机理是有效防控自动驾驶路测安全风险的重要前提.针对自动驾驶路测安全风险多因素耦合特征,对自动驾驶路测事故致因体系进行梳理;结合父节点分离方法,建立分层分类的贝叶斯网络结构;利用最大期望算法并融合先验知识,基于美国 自动驾驶路测和人工驾驶事故数据,完成贝叶斯网络参数的学习,得出自动驾驶路测事故致因影响程度,并与人工驾驶事故致因进行定量对比.结果表明:自动驾驶路测事故致因影响程度与人工驾驶存在显著的差异性,自动驾驶路测在复杂交通环境、不良横纵道路线形条件及逆光环境下的适应性较差.     

智能算法在双辊铸轧过程铸轧力计算中的应用

在双辊铸轧过程中,铸轧力的控制是铸轧过程稳定进行和提高薄带质量的关键.为了控制铸轧力,必须建立铸轧力计算数学模型,本文采用了一种基于贝叶斯方法的前向神经网络训练算法以提高网络的泛化能力,在网络的目标函数中引入了表示网络结构复杂性的惩罚项,融入"奥克姆剪刀"理论,避免了网络训练的过拟合.将上述网络应用于铸轧过程的铸轧力计算,具有很高的计算精度,同时在收敛速度、稳定性和泛化能力方面都优于传统的BP神经网络.     

贝叶斯框架下的LS-SVM在热连轧机轧制力预报中的应用

利用贝叶斯置信框架推断最小二乘支持向量机模型参数并建立贝叶斯最小二乘支持向量机非线性预测模型.在推断第1层确定模型最优参数,第2层确定正则化参数,第3层确定核参数.将该模型用于某1800热连轧轧制力的预测,在预测精度和速度上都取得了较好的效果.     

Bayesian Learning Using Automatic Relevance Determination Prior with an Application to Earthquake Early Warning

A novel method of Bayesian learning with automatic relevance determination prior is presented that provides a powerful approach to problems of classification based on data features, for example, classifying soil liquefaction potential based on soil and seismic shaking parameters, automatically classifying the damage states of a structure after severe loading based on features of its dynamic response, and real-time classification of earthquakes based on seismic signals. After introduction of the theory, the method is illustrated by applying it to an earthquake record dataset from nine earthquakes to build an efficient real-time algorithm for near-source versus far-source classification of incoming seismic ground motion signals. This classification is needed in the development of early warning systems for large earthquakes. It is shown that the proposed methodology is promising since it provides a classifier with higher correct classification rates and better generalization performance than a previous Bayesian learning method with a fixed prior distribution that was applied to the same classification problem.     

Decision making and learning while taking sequential risks.

A sequential risk-taking paradigm used to identify real-world risk takers invokes both learning and decision processes. This article expands the paradigm to a larger class of tasks with different stochastic environments and different learning requirements. Generalizing a Bayesian sequential risk-taking model to the larger set of tasks clarifies the roles of learning and decision making during sequential risky choice. Results show that respondents adapt their learning processes and associated mental representations of the task to the stochastic environment. Furthermore, their Bayesian learning processes are shown to interfere with the paradigm's identification of risky drug use, whereas the decision-making process facilitates its diagnosticity. Theoretical implications of the results in terms of both understanding risk-taking behavior and improving risk-taking assessment methods are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A case for Bayesianism in clinical trials

This paper describes a Bayesian approach to the design and analysis of clinical trials, and compares it with the frequentist approach. Both approaches address learning under uncertainty. But they are different in a variety of ways. The Bayesian approach is more flexible. For example, accumulating data from a clinical trial can be used to update Bayesian measures, independent of the design of the trial. Frequentist measures are tied to the design, and interim analyses must be planned for frequentist measures to have meaning. Its flexibility makes the Bayesian approach ideal for analysing data from clinical trials. In carrying out a Bayesian analysis for inferring treatment effect, information from the clinical trial and other sources can be combined and used explicitly in drawing conclusions. Bayesians and frequentists address making decisions very differently. For example, when choosing or modifying the design of a clinical trial, Bayesians use all available information, including that which comes from the trial itself. The ability to calculate predictive probabilities for future observations is a distinct advantage of the Bayesian approach to designing clinical trials and other decisions. An important difference between Bayesian and frequentist thinking is the role of randomization.     

Bayesian Network for E/M Impedance-Based Damage Identification

A Bayesian network is a probabilistic representation of the multiple cause-effect dependency relationships in a domain. It incorporates human reasoning to deal with sparse data availability and to determine the probabilities of uncertain events. In this paper, a Bayesian network is adopted to model the problem of damage location identification. The damage identification method uses the natural frequency shifts and the undamaged mode shapes of the structure to identify the damage location. The frequency shifts are extracted numerically from a finite-element (FE) model and experimentally from the electromechanical (e/m) admittance signatures of the smart piezoelectric (PZT) transducer bonded to the structure. The undamaged mode shapes are determined from the FE model of the undamaged structure. To incorporate a suitable Bayesian network model, issues of variable selection, variable dependency, probabilistic inference, and error modeling are discussed. The performance of the implemented Bayesian network is verified using both numerical and experimental data. The model is able to accurately determine the damage location, with only a subset of frequency shift data, and eliminated the model errors.     

Density estimation by mixture models with smoothing priors

In the statistical approach for self-organizing maps (SOMs), learning is regarded as an estimation algorithm for a gaussian mixture model with a gaussian smoothing prior on the centroid parameters. The values of the hyperparameters and the topological structure are selected on the basis of a statistical principle. However, since the component selection probabilities are fixed to a common value, the centroids concentrate on areas with high data density. This deforms a coordinate system on an extracted manifold and makes smoothness evaluation for the manifold inaccurate. In this article, we study an extended SOM model whose component selection probabilities are variable. To stabilize the estimation, a smoothing prior on the component selection probabilities is introduced. An estimation algorithm for the parameters and the hyperparameters based on empirical Bayesian inference is obtained. The performance of density estimation by the new model and the SOM model is compared via simulation experiments.     

Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hours.

The authors present and test a new method of teaching Bayesian reasoning, something about which previous teaching studies reported little success. Based on G. Gigerenzer and U. Hoffrage's (1995) ecological framework, the authors wrote a computerized tutorial program to train people to construct frequency representations (representation training) rather than to insert probabilities into Bayes's rule (rule training). Bayesian computations are simpler to perform with natural frequencies than with probabilities, and there are evolutionary masons for assuming that cognitive algorithms have been developed to deal with natural frequencies. In 2 studies, the authors compared representation training with rule training; the criteria were an immediate learning effect, transfer to new problems, and long-term temporal stability. Rule training was as good in transfer as representation training, but representation training had a higher immediate learning effect and greater temporal stability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Induction of decision trees and Bayesian classification applied to diagnosis of sport injuries

Machine learning techniques can be used to extract knowledge from data stored in medical databases. In our application, various machine learning algorithms were used to extract diagnostic knowledge which may be used to support the diagnosis of sport injuries. The applied methods include variants of the Assistant algorithm for top-down induction of decision trees, and variants of the Bayesian classifier. The available dataset was insufficient for reliable diagnosis of all sport injuries considered by the system. Consequently, expert-defined diagnostic rules were added and used as pre-classifiers or as generators of additional training instances for diagnoses for which only few training examples were available. Experimental results show that the classification accuracy and the explanation capability of the naive Bayesian classifier with the fuzzy discretization of numerical attributes were superior to other methods and estimated as the most appropriate for practical use.     

Learning a theory of causality.

The very early appearance of abstract knowledge is often taken as evidence for innateness. We explore the relative learning speeds of abstract and specific knowledge within a Bayesian framework and the role for innate structure. We focus on knowledge about causality, seen as a domain-general intuitive theory, and ask whether this knowledge can be learned from co-occurrence of events. We begin by phrasing the causal Bayes nets theory of causality and a range of alternatives in a logical language for relational theories. This allows us to explore simultaneous inductive learning of an abstract theory of causality and a causal model for each of several causal systems. We find that the correct theory of causality can be learned relatively quickly, often becoming available before specific causal theories have been learned—an effect we term the blessing of abstraction. We then explore the effect of providing a variety of auxiliary evidence and find that a collection of simple perceptual input analyzers can help to bootstrap abstract knowledge. Together, these results suggest that the most efficient route to causal knowledge may be to build in not an abstract notion of causality but a powerful inductive learning mechanism and a variety of perceptual supports. While these results are purely computational, they have implications for cognitive development, which we explore in the conclusion. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Evaluating mixture modeling for clustering: Recommendations and cautions.

This article provides a large-scale investigation into several of the properties of mixture-model clustering techniques (also referred to as latent class cluster analysis, latent profile analysis, model-based clustering, probabilistic clustering, Bayesian classification, unsupervised learning, and finite mixture models; see Vermunt & Magdison, 2002). Focus is given to the multivariate normal distribution, and 9 separate decompositions (i.e., class structures) of the covariance matrix are investigated. To provide a link to the current literature, comparisons are made with K-means clustering in 3 detailed Monte Carlo studies. The findings have implications for applied researchers in that mixture-model clustering techniques performed best when the covariance structure and number of clusters were known. However, as the information about the shape and number of clusters became unknown, degraded performance was observed for both K-means clustering and mixture-model clustering. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)