Implications of technological learning on the prospects for renewable energy technologies in Europe

The objective of this article is to examine the consequences of technological developments on the market diffusion of different renewable electricity technologies in the EU-25 until 2020, using a market simulation model (ADMIRE REBUS). It is assumed that from 2012 a harmonized trading system will be implemented, and a target of 24% renewable electricity (RES-E) in 2020 is set and met. By comparing optimistic and pessimistic endogenous technological learning scenarios, it is found that diffusion of onshore wind energy is relatively robust, regardless of technological development, but diffusion rates of offshore wind energy and biomass gasification greatly depend on their technological development. Competition between these two options and (existing) biomass combustion options largely determines the overall costs of electricity from renewables and the choice of technologies for the individual member countries. In the optimistic scenario, in 2020 the market price for RES-E is 1 €ct/kWh lower than in the pessimistic scenario (about 7 vs. 8 €ct/kWh). As a result, total RES-E production costs are 19% lower, and total governmental expenditures for RES-market stimulation are 30% lower in the optimistic scenario.     

Energy use, cost and CO2 emissions of electric cars

We examine efficiency, costs and greenhouse gas emissions of current and future electric cars (EV), including the impact from charging EV on electricity demand and infrastructure for generation and distribution.Uncoordinated charging would increase national peak load by 7% at 30% penetration rate of EV and household peak load by 54%, which may exceed the capacity of existing electricity distribution infrastructure. At 30% penetration of EV, off-peak charging would result in a 20% higher, more stable base load and no additional peak load at the national level and up to 7% higher peak load at the household level. Therefore, if off-peak charging is successfully introduced, electric driving need not require additional generation capacity, even in case of 100% switch to electric vehicles.GHG emissions from electric driving depend most on the fuel type (coal or natural gas) used in the generation of electricity for charging, and range between 0 g km⁻¹ (using renewables) and 155 g km⁻¹ (using electricity from an old coal-based plant). Based on the generation capacity projected for the Netherlands in 2015, electricity for EV charging would largely be generated using natural gas, emitting 35-77 g CO_2 eq km⁻¹.We find that total cost of ownership (TCO) of current EV are uncompetitive with regular cars and series hybrid cars by more than 800 € year⁻¹. TCO of future wheel motor PHEV may become competitive when batteries cost 400 € kWh⁻¹, even without tax incentives, as long as one battery pack can last for the lifespan of the vehicle. However, TCO of future battery powered cars is at least 25% higher than of series hybrid or regular cars. This cost gap remains unless cost of batteries drops to 150 € kWh⁻¹ in the future. Variations in driving cost from charging patterns have negligible influence on TCO.GHG abatement costs using plug-in hybrid cars are currently 400-1400 € tonne⁻¹ CO_2 eq and may come down to −100 to 300 € tonne⁻¹. Abatement cost using battery powered cars are currently above 1900 € tonne⁻¹ and are not projected to drop below 300-800 € tonne⁻¹.     

A hybrid model for the optimum integration of renewable technologies in power generation systems

The main purpose of this work is to assess the unavoidable increase in the cost of electricity of a generation system by the integration of the necessary renewable energy sources for power generation (RES-E) technologies in order for the European Union Member States to achieve their national RES energy target. The optimization model developed uses a genetic algorithm (GA) technique for the calculation of both the additional cost of electricity due to the penetration of RES-E technologies as well as the required RES-E levy in the electricity bills in order to fund this RES-E penetration. Also, the procedure enables the estimation of the optimum feed-in-tariff to be offered to future RES-E systems. Also, the overall cost increase in the electricity sector for the promotion of RES-E technologies, for the period 2010–2020, is analyzed taking into account factors, such as, the fuel avoidance cost, the carbon dioxide emissions avoidance cost, the conventional power system increased operation cost, etc. The overall results indicate that in the case of RES-E investments with internal rate of return (IRR) of 10% the cost of integration is higher, compared to RES-E investments with no profit, (i.e., IRR at 0%) by 0.3–0.5 €c/kWh (in real prices), depending on the RES-E penetration level.     

Integration of renewable energy into the transport and electricity sectors through V2G

Large-scale sustainable energy systems will be necessary for substantial reduction of CO₂. However, large-scale implementation faces two major problems: (1) we must replace oil in the transportation sector, and (2) since today's inexpensive and abundant renewable energy resources have fluctuating output, to increase the fraction of electricity from them, we must learn to maintain a balance between demand and supply. Plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) could reduce or eliminate oil for the light vehicle fleet. Adding “vehicle-to-grid” (V2G) technology to EVs can provide storage, matching the time of generation to time of load. Two national energy systems are modelled, one for Denmark, including combined heat and power (CHP) and the other a similarly sized country without CHP (the latter being more typical of other industrialized countries). The model (EnergyPLAN) integrates energy for electricity, transport and heat, includes hourly fluctuations in human needs and the environment (wind resource and weather-driven need for heat). Four types of vehicle fleets are modelled, under levels of wind penetration varying from 0% to 100%. EVs were assumed to have high power (10 kW) connections, which provide important flexibility in time and duration of charging. We find that adding EVs and V2G to these national energy systems allows integration of much higher levels of wind electricity without excess electric production, and also greatly reduces national CO₂ emissions.     

Modelling the impacts of electric vehicle recharging on the Western Australian electricity supply system

This study investigates the potential impacts of EVs on the Western Australian electricity grid, the constraints on the system’s capacity to supply electricity for EV recharging and the options for managing those potential impacts and constraints. Western Australia is geographically isolated and the electricity network has no interconnection with neighbouring regions. The State energy and vehicle markets are independent of issues occurring in neighbouring states. Western Australia is a relatively clean sample space. This study eliminates uncertainty in vehicle adoption rates from analysis by assuming that all new vehicles are EVs. This gives a worst case scenario in terms of load growth and shows that it will over 200,000 EVs, which represents 10% of the fleet, before there is any significant impact on peak demand even if charging behaviours are left unfettered. The study also shows, however, that the electricity supply and transmission industry can achieve significant short- and long-term benefits if vehicle charging behaviours are managed from the outset, through, for example, demand management or structured tariffs. In the short-term, providing incentive for off-peak recharging increases utilisation of existing transmission capacity, and cheaper, more efficient base-load generation infrastructure. In the long-term, investment in more underutilised capacity can be avoided.     

Policy drivers for improving electricity end-use efficiency in the USA: an economic–engineering analysis

This paper estimates the economically achievable potential for improving electricity end-use efficiency in the USA from a sample of policies. The approach involves identifying a series of energy efficiency policies tackling market failures and then examining their impacts and cost-effectiveness using Georgia Institute of Technology's version of the National Energy Modeling System. By estimating the policy-driven electricity savings and the associated levelized costs, a policy supply curve for electricity efficiency is produced. Each policy is evaluated individually and in an integrated policy scenario to examine policy dynamics. The integrated policy scenario demonstrates significant achievable potential: 261 TWh (6.5 %) of electricity savings in 2020 and 457 TWh (10.2 %) in 2035. All 11 policies examined were estimated to have lower levelized costs than the average electricity retail price. Levelized costs range from 0.5 to 8.1 cents/kWh, with the regulatory and information policies tending to be most cost-effective. Policy impacts on the power sector, carbon dioxide emissions, and energy intensity are also estimated to be significant.     

Efficient lighting programs in Europe: Cost effectiveness,consumer response,and market dynamics

Since 1987 more than 50 utility-sponsored programs in 11 European countries have offered financial incentives to promote energy-efficient compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs). Roughly 7.4 million households were eligible for the programs and together they acquired about 2.5 million CFLs. Data from 40 of the programs show that the average societal cost of conserved energy is 2.1 cents/kWh, including 0.3 cents/kWh for program administration and marketing, far less than the cost of building and operating new electric power plants. The highest penetration rates and the most cost-effective programs result when utility companies pay a high proportion (or all) of the cost of the efficient lamps. Data on lamp choice, placement, and utilization are presented along with a characterization of participants and non-participants. Survey results show that lamp prices can be a more important influence on consumers' choice of efficient lamps than the price of electricity. Non-economic factors such as environmental protection are as important as economic factors in determining participation. Market barriers, such as product shortages, are discussed along with appropriate remedies. Finally, differences between the European and the U.S. experiences are outlined.     

The pricing of charging for electric vehicles in China—Dilemma and solution

The number of electric vehicles in China is expected to grow rapidly, triggering the nationwide large-scale construction of charging stations. At the same time, a reasonable charging price has not been established. This article records the views of station operators and EV users and calculates a charging pricing range. The price should not only ensure the profit of operators, but also help reduce EV users’ expenditure compared to using internal-combustion-engine vehicles. Based on current energy prices and battery costs, charging stations are unable to make profit, and the pricing shortfall is up to 0.78 RMB yuan(kWh)⁻¹. Only with a 25% increase in energy price or 25% reduction in battery cost can charging stations become profitable. Several suggestions are proposed to improve station profits. First, ensuring a high station load is helpful to increase profits, and it is estimated the reasonable number of chargers in Beijing is approximately 6000, distributed among 672 stations. Second, the use of storage batteries for on/off-peak electricity self-management can also increase the annual profit by 600,000 RMB yuan. In addition, other methods like a jointed station alliance, multiple energy supplement approaches, vehicle-to-grid technology and state subsidy can also accelerate the development of the charging service industry.     

A climate protection strategy for Germany—40% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2020 compared to 1990

This paper presents measures and instruments for Germany to achieve the goal of 40% CO₂-emission reduction until 2020 by reducing energy-related emissions by 224 million tonne (Mt). The most important measures in this regard are cuts in electricity generation (savings of 40 Mt), fuel switching and increased energy conversion efficiency (30 Mt) and an augmented 26% share of renewable energies in the provision of electrical energy (44 Mt). Average cost of the measures are at 50 euro per tonne avoided CO₂, which corresponds to an additional monthly expenditure per household of less than 25 euro.     

Methodology for modelling plug-in electric vehicles in the power system and cost estimates for a system with either smart or dumb electric vehicles

The article estimates the costs of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) in a future power system as well as the benefits from smart charging and discharging EVs (smart EVs). To arrive in a good estimate, a generation planning model was used to create power plant portfolios, which were operated in a more detailed unit commitment and dispatch model. In both models the charging and discharging of EVs is optimised together with the rest of the power system. Neither the system cost nor the market price of electricity for EVs turned out to be high (36-263 €/vehicle/year in the analysed scenarios). Most of the benefits of smart EVs come from smart timing of charging although benefits are also accrued from provision of reserves and lower power plant portfolio cost. The benefits of smart EVs are 227 €/vehicle/year. This amount has to cover all expenses related to enabling smart EVs and need to be divided between different actors. Additional benefits could come from the avoidance of grid related costs of immediate charging, but these were not part of the analysis.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of algae energy production in the EU

Today’s society relies heavily on fossil fuels as a main energy source. Global energy demand increase, energy security and climate change are the main drivers of the transition towards alternative energy sources. This paper analyses algal biodiesel production for the EU road transportation and compares it to the fossil fuels and 1st generation biofuels. A cost-effectiveness analysis was used to aggregate private and external costs and derive the social cost of each fuel. The following externalities were internalized: emissions (GHG and non-GHG), food prices impact, pesticides/fertilizers use and security of supply. Currently the social cost of producing algal biodiesel at 52.3 € GJ⁻¹ is higher than rapeseed biodiesel (36.0 € GJ⁻¹) and fossil fuels (15.8 € GJ⁻¹). Biotechnology development, high crude oil prices and high carbon value are the key features of the scenario where algal biodiesel outcompetes all other fuels. A substantial investment into the biotechnology sector and comprehensive environmental research and policy are required to make that scenario a reality.     

The economics of using plug-in hybrid electric vehicle battery packs for grid storage

We examine the potential economic implications of using vehicle batteries to store grid electricity generated at off-peak hours for off-vehicle use during peak hours. Ancillary services such as frequency regulation are not considered here because only a small number of vehicles will saturate that market. Hourly electricity prices in three U.S. cities were used to arrive at daily profit values, while the economic losses associated with battery degradation were calculated based on data collected from A123 Systems LiFePO₄/Graphite cells tested under combined driving and off-vehicle electricity utilization. For a 16 kWh (57.6 MJ) vehicle battery pack, the maximum annual profit with perfect market information and no battery degradation cost ranged from ∼US$140 to $250 in the three cities. If the measured battery degradation is applied, however, the maximum annual profit (if battery pack replacement costs fall to $5000 for a 16 kWh battery) decreases to ∼$10-120. It appears unlikely that these profits alone will provide sufficient incentive to the vehicle owner to use the battery pack for electricity storage and later off-vehicle use. We also estimate grid net social welfare benefits from avoiding the construction and use of peaking generators that may accrue to the owner, finding that these are similar in magnitude to the energy arbitrage profit.     

Performance analysis of various hybrid renewable energy systems using battery,hydrogen, and pumped hydro‐based storage units

The aim of this research is to analyze the techno‐economic performance of hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) using batteries, pumped hydro‐based, and hydrogen‐based storage units at Sharurah, Saudi Arabia. The simulations and optimization process are carried out for nine HRES scenarios to determine the optimum sizes of components for each scenario. The optimal sizing of components for each HRES scenario is determined based on the net present cost (NPC) optimization criterion. All of the nine optimized HRES scenarios are then evaluated based on NPC, levelized cost of energy, payback period, CO₂ emissions, excess electricity, and renewable energy fraction. The simulation results show that the photovoltaic (PV)‐diesel‐battery scenario is economically the most viable system with the NPC of US$2.70 million and levelized cost of energy of US$0.178/kWh. Conversely, PV‐diesel‐fuel cell system is proved to be economically the least feasible system. Moreover, the wind‐diesel‐fuel cell is the most economical scenario in the hydrogen‐based storage category. PV‐wind‐diesel‐pumped hydro scenario has the highest renewable energy fraction of 89.8%. PV‐wind‐diesel‐pumped hydro scenario is the most environment‐friendly system, with an 89% reduction in CO₂ emissions compared with the base‐case diesel only scenario. Overall, the systems with battery and pumped hydro storage options have shown better techno‐economic performance compared with the systems with hydrogen‐based storage.     

The air quality and human health effects of integrating utility-scale batteries into the New York State electricity grid

In a restructured electricity market, utility-scale energy storage technologies such as advanced batteries can generate revenue by charging at low electricity prices and discharging at high prices. This strategy changes the magnitude and distribution of air quality emissions and the total carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. We evaluate the social costs associated with these changes using a case study of 500 MW sodium-sulfur battery installations with 80% round-trip efficiency. The batteries displace peaking generators in New York City and charge using off-peak generation in the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) electricity grid during the summer. We identify and map charging and displaced plant types to generators in the NYISO. We then convert the emissions into ambient concentrations with a chemical transport model, the Particulate Matter Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (PMCAM_x). Finally, we transform the concentrations into their equivalent human health effects and social benefits and costs. Reductions in premature mortality from fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) result in a benefit of 4.5 ¢ kWh⁻¹ and 17 ¢ kWh⁻¹ from displacing a natural gas and distillate fuel oil fueled peaking plant, respectively, in New York City. Ozone (O₃) concentrations increase due to decreases in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions, although the magnitude of the social cost is less certain. Adding the costs from charging, displacing a distillate fuel oil plant yields a net social benefit, while displacing the natural gas plant has a net social cost. With the existing base-load capacity, the upstate population experiences an increase in adverse health effects. If wind generation is charging the battery, both the upstate charging location and New York City benefit. At $20 per tonne of CO₂, the costs from CO₂ are small compared to those from air quality. We conclude that storage could be added to existing electricity grids as part of an integrated strategy from a human health standpoint.     

Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030: The potential impact of climate change

This paper provides a forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030, based on econometric analysis of energy use as a function of macroeconomic variables, prices and weather conditions. If past trends continue electricity use is expected to triple in the coming 20–25 years, with the residential and commercial sectors increasing their already high shares in total consumption. Besides this reference scenario it was attempted to assess the impact of climate change on electricity use. According to official projections, the average temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by about 1 °C by the year 2030. Using our econometrically estimated model, we calculated that electricity consumption in Cyprus may be about 2.9% higher in 2030 than in the reference scenario. This might lead to a welfare loss of 15 million Euros in 2020 and 45 million Euros in 2030; for the entire period 2008–2030 the present value of costs may exceed 200 million Euros (all expressed in constant Euros of 2007). Moreover, we assessed the additional peak electricity load requirements in the future because of climate change: extra load may amount to 65–75 Megawatts (MW) in the year 2020 and 85–95 MW in 2030.     

The technical,geographical, and economic feasibility for solar energy to supply the energy needs of the US

So far, solar energy has been viewed as only a minor contributor in the energy mixture of the US due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent drastic cost reductions in the production of photovoltaics (PV) pave the way for enabling this technology to become cost competitive with fossil fuel energy generation. We show that with the right incentives, cost competitiveness with grid prices in the US (e.g., 6–10 US¢/kWh) can be attained by 2020. The intermittency problem is solved by integrating PV with compressed air energy storage (CAES) and by extending the thermal storage capability in concentrated solar power (CSP). We used hourly load data for the entire US and 45-year solar irradiation data from the southwest region of the US, to simulate the CAES storage requirements, under worst weather conditions. Based on expected improvements of established, commercially available PV, CSP, and CAES technologies, we show that solar energy has the technical, geographical, and economic potential to supply 69% of the total electricity needs and 35% of the total (electricity and fuel) energy needs of the US by 2050. When we extend our scenario to 2100, solar energy supplies over 90%, and together with other renewables, 100% of the total US energy demand with a corresponding 92% reduction in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions compared to the 2005 levels.     

Means to reduce CO2-emissions in the Chinese electricity system, with special consideration to wind energy

This paper analyses the technical possibilities which exist to avoid a large increase of carbon dioxide emissions produced by electricity generation in China.The paper evaluates different technical means such as wind energy, solar energy (thermal and Pl), hydro energy, tidal energy, geothermal energy and biomass for electricity production in China. The potential of each power source is estimated. In a final scenario, the influence of these technical means on the CO₂ reduction in the year 2020 will be predicted.     

Using fuzzy MCDM technique to find the best location in Qatar for exploiting wind and solar energy to generate hydrogen and electricity

Hydrogen has been a promising energy carrier to meet the world's energy needs as well as reduce pollutant emissions. Although many countries have policies and programs to expand hydrogen production, the potential for hydrogen production in different regions of Qatar has not yet been evaluated. Therefore, this paper, for the first time, evaluates the possibility of an average annual cogeneration of 14 kWh of electricity and 85 kg/day of hydrogen by a home-scale solar-wind system connected to the grid in Qatar. NASA's 20-year average of meteorological data, the electricity tariff and gasoline price in 2018, along with annual real interest rate, were used as inputs to HOMER software. The techno-econo-enviro analysis was done over a one-year period hour by hour. From the results, it was found that the lowest prices of hydrogen and electricity generated, with $ 2.092/kg and $ 11.495/kWh, were related to Grid and PV-Wind-Grid scenarios, respectively. Also, results indicated that Ar-Ruways station and PV-Wind-Grid scenario were the most environmentally suitable options that resulted in a CO₂ emission rate of 1434 kg annually. To select just one station among five areas, a fuzzy method was deployed as a prioritization technique. Its results suggested that Doha Intl Airport site is the most suitable one for constructing solar-wind hybrid energy generation system.     

Market penetration analysis of electric vehicles in the German passenger car market towards 2030

There is currently intensive public discussion of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and other electric powertrains, such as battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and hybridized combustion engine vehicles (HEV). In this context, the German government has set the target of one million electric vehicles on the road by 2020, and six million by 2030 [1]. The goal of this paper is to identify the possible market share of electric vehicles in the German new car fleet in three scenarios in the timeframe from 2010 to 2030. The VECTOR21 vehicle technology scenario model is used to model the fleet in three scenarios. In the reference scenario with business-as-usual parameters, 189,000 electric vehicles will be sold in Germany by 2020. Scenario two with purchase price incentives from 5000 EUR, high oil prices, and low prices for hydrogen and electricity will result in 727,000 vehicles. In the last scenario with substantial OEM mark-up reductions and external conditions as in the business-as-usual scenario, 3.28 million vehicles will be sold.     

Solar energy storage in German households: profitability,load changes and flexibility

The developments of battery storage technology together with photovoltaic (PV) roof-top systems might lead to far-reaching changes in the electricity demand structures and flexibility of households. The implications are supposed to affect the generation mix of utilities, distribution grid utilization, and electricity price. Using a techno-economic optimization model of a household system, we endogenously dimension PV system and stationary battery storage (SBS). The results of the reference scenario show positive net present values (NPV) for PV systems of approx. 500–1,800 EUR/kW_p and NPV for SBS of approx. 150–500 EUR/kWh. Main influences are the demand of the households, self-consumption rates, investment costs, and electricity prices. We integrate electric vehicles (EV) with different charging strategies and find increasing NPV of the PV system and self-consumption of approx. 70%. With further declining system prices for solar energy storage and increasing electricity prices, PV systems and SBS can be profitable in Germany from 2018 on even without a guaranteed feed-in tariff or subsidies. Grid utilization substantially changes by households with EV and PV-SBS. We discuss effects of different incentives and electricity tariff options (e. g. load limits or additional demand charges). Concluding, solar energy storage systems will bring substantial changes to electricity sales.