Production of hydrogen for export from wind and solar energy,natural gas,and coal in Australia

Hydrogen production for export to Japan and Korea is increasingly popular in Australia. The theoretically possible paths include the use of the excess wind and solar energy supply to the grid to produce hydrogen from natural gas or coal. As a contribution to this debate, here I discuss the present contribution of wind and solar to the electricity grid, how this contribution might be expanded to make a grid wind and solar only, what is the energy storage needed to permit this supply, and what is the ratio of domestic total primary energy supply to electricity use. These factors are required to determine the likeliness of producing hydrogen for export. The wind and solar energy capacity, presently at 6.7 and 11.4 GW, have to increase almost 8 times up to values of 53 and 90 GW respectively to support a wind and solar energy only electricity grid for the southeast states only. Additionally, it is necessary to build-up energy storage of actual power >50 GW and stored energy >3000 GW h to stabilize the grid. If the other states and territories are considered, and also the total primary energy supply (TPES) rather than just electricity, the wind and solar capacity must be increased of a further 6–8 times. It is concluded that it is extremely unlikely that hydrogen for export could be produced from the splitting of the water molecule by using excess wind and solar energy, and it is very unlikely that wind and solar may fully cover the local TPES needs. The most likely scenario is production hydrogen via syngas from either natural gas or coal. Production from natural gas and coal needs further development of techniques, to include CO₂ capture, a way to reuse or store CO₂, and finally, the better energy efficiency of the conversion processes. There are several challenges for using natural gas or coal to produce hydrogen with near-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies that ensure no CO₂ is released in the production process, and new technologies to separate the oxygen from the air, and in case of natural gas, the water, and the CO₂ from the combustion products, are urgently needed to make sense of the fossil fuel hydrogen production. There is no benefit from producing hydrogen from fossil fuels without addressing the CO₂ issue, as well as the fuel energy penalty issue during conversion, that is simply translating in a net loss of fuel energy with the same CO₂ emission.     

CO2 emissions from electricity generation in seven Asia-Pacific and North American countries: A decomposition analysis

The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method of complete decomposition is used to examine the role of three factors (electricity production, electricity generation structure and energy intensity of electricity generation) affecting the evolution of CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in seven countries. These seven countries together generated 58% of global electricity and they are responsible for more than two-thirds of global CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in 2005. The analysis shows production effect as the major factor responsible for rise in CO₂ emissions during the period 1990–2005. The generation structure effect also contributed in CO₂ emissions increase, although at a slower rate. In contrary, the energy intensity effect is responsible for modest reduction in CO₂ emissions during this period. Over the 2005–2030 period, production effect remains the key factor responsible for increase in emissions and energy intensity effect is responsible for decrease in emissions. Unlike in the past, generation structure effect contributes significant decrease in emissions. However, the degree of influence of these factors affecting changes in CO₂ emissions vary from country to country. The analysis also shows that there is a potential of efficiency improvement of fossil-fuel-fired power plants and its associated co-benefits among these countries.     

The decline of sectorial components of the world's energy intensity

The world's primary energy consumption in the last 40 years has been increasing at 2.2%/year while GDP growth has been 3.4%/years over the same period. The decline of the energy intensity (I=E/GDP) has been, therefore, of 1.2%/year. In order to reduce the world's consumption growth proposal have been made to reduce the world's energy intensity by 40% by 2030 which corresponds to a reduction of 2.5%/year, roughly the double of the historical decline. Our analysis shoes that such goal could only be achieved by an unprecedented reduction of the energy intensity of “services” (which represent less than half the world energy consumption) since energy intensity of industry has remained practically constant in the last 40 years.     

Environmental degradation,economic growth and energy consumption: Evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia

This paper tests for the short and long-run relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and energy consumption, using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) by employing both the aggregated and disaggregated energy consumption data in Malaysia for the period 1980–2009. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology and Johansen–Juselius maximum likelihood approach were used to test the cointegration relationship; and the Granger causality test, based on the vector error correction model (VECM), to test for causality. The study does not support an inverted U-shaped relationship (EKC) when aggregated energy consumption data was used. When data was disaggregated based on different energy sources such as oil, coal, gas and electricity, the study does show evidences of the EKC hypothesis. The long-run Granger causality test shows that there is bi-directional causality between economic growth and CO₂ emissions, with coal, gas, electricity and oil consumption. This suggests that decreasing energy consumption such as coal, gas, electricity and oil appears to be an effective way to control CO₂ emissions but simultaneously will hinder economic growth. Thus suitable policies related to the efficient consumption of energy resources and consumption of renewable sources are required.     

A dynamic panel study of economic development and the electricity consumption-growth nexus

This study examines the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for 88 countries categorized into four panels based on the World Bank income classification (high, upper middle, lower middle, and low income) within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1990–2006. The Larsson et al. (2001) panel cointegration test indicates there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force for the high, upper middle, and lower middle income country panels. The results from the panel vector error correction models reveal (1) bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run for the high income and upper-middle income country panels; (2) unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to economic growth in the short-run, but bidirectional causality in the long-run for the lower-middle income country panel; and (3) unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to economic growth for the low income country panel.     

The impact of coal consumption and CO2 emission on economic growth

This study examined the long-run and the causal relationship between total coal consumption, CO₂ emission, and GDP growth in China, the United States, India, Germany, Russia, South Africa, Japan, Australia, Poland, and South Korea. The panel model was employed during the period 1992–2009. The results showed that total coal consumption and CO₂ emission have a long-run relationship with the GDP growth. In addition, there was a short-run positive bidirectional causal relationship between total coal consumption and CO₂ emission. However, total coal consumption and CO₂ emission have no short-run or long-run causal relationship with GDP growth. Thus energy conservation policies on total coal consumption such as rationing energy consumption and controlling CO₂ emissions are likely to have no negative impact on the real output growth of the investigated countries.     

Structural decomposition analysis of energy-related CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions in China from 1997 to 2010

The energy-related CO₂ emissions in China have increased dramatically from 3384 to 8333?×?10⁶ t during the last decade. To interpret these drastic changes, we undertake a structural decomposition analysis to decompose the changes in CO₂ emissions from 1997 to 2010 into the following six driving forces: emission coefficient, energy intensity, Leontief, sectoral structure, demand allocation (the shares of consumption, investments, and exports in final demand), and final demand effects. The results show that declines in energy intensity had a decrease impact on CO₂ emissions during the studied period. Changes in the relative importance of intermediate production in total output (the Leontief effect) contributed to decrease CO₂ emissions in the 2000–2002 period and to increase emissions in the other periods. The most important driver behind the steady increase in CO₂ emissions is the large increase in final demand. A further analysis at the sectoral level revealed differences and fluctuations between sectors. Energy intensity fell most strongly in the electric power sector and the coking, gas, and petroleum production sector (two energy-intensive sectors). The shift toward exports and investment increased CO₂ emissions (demand allocation effect). Part of the increases in CO₂ emissions thus stem from production activities for consumption activities elsewhere.     

Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis

Based on time series decomposition of the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper analyzes the change of industrial carbon emissions from 36 industrial sectors in China over the period 1998–2005. The changes of industrial CO₂ emission are decomposed into carbon emissions coefficients of heat and electricity, energy intensity, industrial structural shift, industrial activity and final fuel shift. Our results clearly show that raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals account for 59.31% of total increased industrial CO₂ emissions. The overwhelming contributors to the change of China's industrial sectors’ carbon emissions in the period 1998–2005 were the industrial activity and energy intensity; the impact of emission coefficients of heat and electricity, fuel shift and structural shift was relatively small. Over the year 1998–2002, the energy intensity change in some energy-intensive sectors decreased industrial emissions, but increased emissions over the period 2002–2005. The impact of structural shift on emissions have varied considerably over the years without showing any clear trend, and the final fuel shift increased industrial emissions because of the increase of electricity share and higher emissions coefficient. Therefore, raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals should be among the top priorities for enhancing energy efficiency and driving their energy intensity close to the international advanced level. To some degree, we should reduce the products waste of these sectors, mitigate the growth of demand for their products through avoiding the excessive investment highly related to these sectors, increasing imports or decreasing the export in order to avoid expanding their share in total industrial value added. However, all these should integrate economic growth to harmonize industrial development and CO₂ emission reduction.     

Decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from electricity generation in China

Electricity generation in China mainly depends on coal and its products, which has led to the increase in CO₂ emissions. This paper intends to analyze the current status of CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in China during the period 1991–2009, and apply the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) technique to find the nature of the factors influencing the changes in CO₂ emissions. The main results as follows: (1) CO₂ emission from electricity generation has increased from 530.96 Mt in 1991 to 2393.02 Mt in 2009, following an annual growth rate of 8.72%. Coal products is the main fuel type for thermal power generation, which accounts for more than 90% CO₂ emissions from electricity generation. (2) This paper also presents CO₂ emissions factor of electricity consumption, which help calculate CO₂ emission from final electricity consumption. (3) In China, the economic activity effect is the most important contributor to increase CO₂ emissions from electricity generation, but the electricity generation efficiency effect plays the dominant role in decreasing CO₂ emissions.     

Electricity sector reforms in four Latin-American countries and their impact on carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy

This paper analyzes carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions related to energy consumption for electricity generation in four Latin-American countries in the context of the liberalization process. From 1990 to 2006, power plants based on renewable energy sources decreased its share in power installed capacity, and the carbon index defined as CO₂ emission by unit of energy for electricity production stayed almost constant for all countries with the exception of Colombia, where the index reduced due to increase in hydroelectricity generation in the last years. The paper also presents a new set of policies to promote renewable energy sources that have been developed in the four countries. The paper concludes that restructuring did not bring about environmental benefits related to a decrease in CO₂ emissions because this depend on the existence of committed policies, and dedicated institutional and regulatory frameworks.     

Grey relation performance correlations among economics,energy use and carbon dioxide emission in Taiwan

This study explores the inter-relationships among economy, energy and CO₂ emissions of 37 industrial sectors in Taiwan in order to provide insight regarding sustainable development policy making. Grey relation analysis was used to analyse the productivity, aggregate energy consumption, and the use of fuel mix (electricity, coal, oil and gas) in relation to CO₂ emission changes. An innovative evaluative index system was devised to explore grey relation grades among economics, energy and environmental quality. Results indicate that a rapid increase in electricity generation during the past 10 years is the main reason for CO₂ emission increase in Taiwan. The largest CO₂ emitting sectors include iron and steel, transportation, petrochemical materials, commerce and other services. Therefore, it is important to reduce the energy intensity of these sectors by energy conservation, efficiency improvement and adjustment of industrial structure towards high value-added products and services. Economic growth for all industries has a more significant influence, than does total energy consumption, on CO₂ emission increase in Taiwan. It is also important to decouple the energy consumption and production to reduce the impacts of CO₂ on economic growth. Furthermore, most of the sectors examined had increased CO₂ emissions, except for machinery and road transportation. For high energy intensive and CO₂ intensive industries, governmental policies for CO₂ mitigation should be directed towards low carbon fuels as well as towards enhancement of the demand side management mechanism, without loss of the nation's competitiveness.     

产业和能源消费结构调整对单位产值能耗影响分析

我国正处在调结构、转方式的关键时期,研究产业和能源消费结构变化对单位产值能耗的影响具有较强的现实意义。本文对比分析了我国和美国、日本、德国产业结构、能源消费结构与单位产值能耗的变化规律,研究了产业结构和能源消费结构变化对单位产值能耗的影响,总结了日本节能管理对降低单位产值能耗的作用,提出在优化产业、能源消费结构的同时,加强节能管理是降低我国单位产值能耗的现实选择。     

Electricity consumption and economic growth in seven South American countries

This paper attempts to investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among seven South American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela using widely accepted time-series techniques for the period 1975–2006. The results indicate that the causal nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth varies across countries. There is a unidirectional, short-run causality from electricity consumption to real GDP for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, and Ecuador. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth in those countries. In Venezuela, there is a bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. This implies that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in that country. However, no causal relationships exist in Peru. The documented evidence from seven South American countries can provide useful information for each government with regard to energy and growth policy.     

Strategic planning on carbon capture from coal fired plants in Malaysia and Indonesia: A review

Malaysia and Indonesia benefit in various ways by participating in CDM and from investments in the GHG emission reduction projects, inter alia, technology transfer such as carbon capture (CC) technology for the existing and future coal fired power plants. Among the fossil fuel resources for energy generation, coal is offering an attractive solution to the increasing fuel cost. The consumption of coal in Malaysia and Indonesia is growing at the fastest rate of 9.7% and 4.7%, respectively, per year since 2002. The total coal consumption for electricity generation in Malaysia is projected to increase from 12.4 million tons in 2005 to 36 million tons in 2020. In Indonesia, the coal consumption for the same cause is projected to increase from 29.4 million tons in 2005 to 75 million tons in 2020. CO₂ emission from coal fired power plants are forecasted to grow at 4.1% per year, reaching 98 million tons and 171 million tons in Malaysia and Indonesia, respectively.     

中国电源结构的进一步探讨

中国电源结构长期煤电占极大比重,对此国内外专家看法不一。阐述了中国没有完成能源的几次大转换是导致中国以煤电为主的根本原因。2002年部分发达国家的电源结构表明,部分发达国家的煤炭主要用于发电,煤电在电源结构中的比重大大超过了煤炭在一次能源消费量中的比重。美国、欧洲、俄罗斯2005～2020年电力发展趋势的分析表明．在无温室气体减排规定的情况下,煤电的比重都呈上升趋势。国际能源署和国内专家的预测认为,中国未来的电源结构仍将以煤电为主。鉴于此,中国目前以煤电为主的电源结构是合理的。     

Life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for electricity generation and supply in China

The Well-to-Meter (WTM) analysis module in the Tsinghua-CA3EM model has been used to examine the primary fossil energy consumption (PFEC) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for electricity generation and supply in China. The results show that (1) the WTM PFEC and GHG emission intensities for the 2007 Chinese electricity mix are 3.247 MJ/MJ and 297.688 g carbon dioxide of equivalent (gCO_2,e)/MJ, respectively; (2) power generation is the main contributing sub-stage; (3) the coal-power pathway is the only major contributor of PFEC (96.23%) and GHG emissions (97.08%) in the 2007 mix; and (4) GHG emissions intensity in 2020 will be reduced to 220.470 gCO_2,e/MJ with the development of nuclear and renewable energy and to 169.014 gCO_2,e/MJ if carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is employed. It is concluded that (1) the current high levels of PFEC and GHG emission for electricity in China are largely due to the dominant role of coal in the power-generation sector and the relatively low efficiencies during all the sub-stages from resource extraction to final energy consumption and (2) the development of nuclear and renewable energy as well as low carbon technologies such as CCS can significantly reduce GHG emissions from electricity.     

Energy consumption projection of Nepal: An econometric approach

In energy dependent economies, energy consumption is often linked with the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Energy intensity, defined herewith, as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption (TPE) to the GDP, is a useful concept for understanding the relation between energy demand and economic development. The scope of this article is to assess the future primary energy consumption of Nepal, and the projection is carried out along with the formulation of simple linear logarithmic energy consumption models. This initiates with a hypothesis that energy consumption is dependent with the national macro-economic parameters. To test the hypothesis, nexus between energy consumption and possible determinant variables are examined. Status of energy consumption between the period of 1996 and 2009, and for the same period, growth of economic parameters are assessed. Three scenarios are developed differing from each other on the basis of growth rates of economic indicators: total GDP, GDP-agriculture, GDP-trade, GDP-industry, and other variables including growth in private consumptions, population, transport vehicles numbers, prices of fossil fuels etc. Scenarios are: Business as Usual (BAU), Medium Growth Scenario (MGS) and High Growth Scenario (HGS). Energy consumption in all the sectors and for all fuel types are not statistically correlated with every economic parameters tested in the assessment. Hence, the statistically correlated models are included in the prognosis of energy consumption. For example, the TPE consumption and electricity consumption, both are significantly dependent with the total GDP and population growth. Likewise, fuel wood consumption is significantly dependent with the growth in rural population and private consumptions. In BAU the estimated electricity consumption in 2030 would be 7.97 TWh, which is 3.47 times higher than that of 2009. In MGS, the total electricity consumption in 2030 is estimated to increase by a factor of 5.71 compared to 2009. Likewise, in HGS, electricity consumption would increase by 10-fold until 2030 compared to 2009, demanding installed capacity of power plant at 6600 MW, which is only from hydro power and other centralised system.     

Comprehensive evaluation of industrial CO2 emission (1989–2004) in Taiwan by input–output structural decomposition

Taiwan currently emits approximately 1% of the world's CO₂—ranking it 22nd among nations. Herein, we use the input–output (I–O) structural decomposition method to examine the changes in CO₂ emission over a 15-year period. By decomposing the CO₂ emission changes into nine factors for the periods of 1989–1994, 1994–1999, and 1999–2004, we have identified the key factors causing the emission changes, as well as the most important trends regarding the industrial development process in Taiwan. The 5-year increment with the largest increase of CO₂ emission was that of 1999–2004, due to the rapid increase of electricity consumption. From the decomposition, the industrial energy coefficient and the CO₂ emission factors were identified as the most important parameters for the determination of the highway, petrochemical materials, iron and steel, the commercial sector, and electric machinery as the major sources of increased CO₂ emission during the past 15 years. From 1989 to 2004, the level of exports and the level of domestic final demand were the largest contributors to the increase in the total increment of CO₂ change. During 1989–2004, the industrial energy coefficient and CO₂ emission factors, being minimally significant during 1989–1994, became extremely important, joining the domestic final demand and the level of exports factors as the major causes of the increase increment of CO₂. This indicates a heavy reliance upon high-energy (and CO₂) intensity for Taiwanese industries; therefore, continuous efforts to improve energy intensity and fuel mix toward lower carbon are important for CO₂ reduction, especially for the electricity and power generation sectors. Relevant strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from major industries are also highlighted.     

Assessing the potential of renewable energy sources in Turkey

To meet Turkey’s growing energy demand, the installed electric power capacity of 27.8 GW in 2001 has to be doubled by 2010 and increased fourfold by 2020. The difference between Turkey’s total primary energy supply (TPES) of from its own sources and total final consumption (TFC) is projected grow from 1 quad (1.06–2.06) in 1999 to 5.71 quads (2.79–8.5) in 2020 (1 QUAD=293.071 TWh). Turkey’s limited amount of fossil fuels has a present average ratio of proved reserves of 97.38 quads to production rate of 3.2 quads yr⁻¹ of about 30 years. Turkey’s reliance on fossil fuel-based energy systems to meet the growing demand is most likely to exacerbate the issues of energy insecurity, national environmental degradation, and global climate change in increasing proportions. Economically-feasible renewable energy potential in Turkey is estimated at a total of ca. 1.69 quads yr⁻¹ (495.4 TWh yr⁻¹) with the potential for 0.67 quads yr⁻¹ (196.7 TWh yr⁻¹) of biomass energy, 0.42 quads yr⁻¹ (124 TWh yr⁻¹) of hydropower, 0.35 quads yr⁻¹ (102.3 TWh yr⁻¹) of solar energy, 0.17 quads yr⁻¹ (50 TWh yr⁻¹) of wind energy, and 0.08 quads yr⁻¹ (22.4 TWh yr⁻¹) of geothermal energy. Pursuit and implementation of sustainability-based energy policy could provide about 90 and 35% of Turkey’s total energy supply and consumption projected in 2010, respectively. Utilization of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation would necessitate about 23.2 Mha (29.8%) of Turkey’s land resources.     

Industrial CO2 emissions from energy use in Korea: A structural decomposition analysis

This paper attempts to quantify energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the industrial sectors of Korea. The sources of the changes in CO₂ emissions for the years 1990–2003 are investigated, in terms of a total of eight factors, through input–output structural decomposition analysis: changes in emission coefficient (caused by shifts in energy intensity and carbon intensity); changes in economic growth; and structural changes (in terms of shifts in domestic final demand, exports, imports of final and intermediate goods, and production technology). The results show that the rate of growth of industrial CO₂ emissions has drastically decreased since the 1998 financial crisis in Korea. The effect on emission reductions due to changes in energy intensity and domestic final demand surged in the second period (1995–2000), while the impact of exports steeply rose in the third period (2000–2003). Of all the individual factors, economic growth accounted for the largest increase in CO₂ emissions. The results of this analysis can be used to infer the potential for emission-reduction in Korea.