Resource nationalism and credit growth in FSU countries

This paper analyses the connection between resource nationalism and financial sector intervention in the FSU countries. We consider recent financial development in the FSU and the special features of energy rich emerging economies (Russia and Kazakhstan, in particular) which are influencing recent credit expansions. We find that the hydrocarbon sector has boosted boosting domestic credits through a number of direct and indirect routes. Recent decline in oil prices may change government attitudes to a continued resource nationalist strategy. Sovereign wealth funds that were established in a majority of energy rich emerging economies may, to the extent that they enable the selection of winners in specific economic sectors, create path dependency or exacerbate longer term allocative inefficiency arising from the governance structure associated with resource nationalism.     

俄罗斯油气政策与投资风险研究

俄罗斯为了适应不同时期经济发展和外交战略的需要,经常调整其油气政策,大体经历了私有化、再国有化和国家控制下的部分开放三个阶段,始终没有形成一个稳定的油气政策,而国际石油公司在俄投资所面临的最大风险就源于俄油气政策的不稳定性.当前,国际石油公司在俄投资主要面临政治、经济、管理体制和法律法规4方面的风险.政治方面,政策突变和恐怖活动是国际石油公司在俄投资所面临的最大风险;经济方面,俄罗斯单一的能源经济在面对国际金融危机时缺乏抵抗力,增加了在俄投资所面临的风险;管理体制方面,俄联邦政府-石油公司-地方政府的混合型管理体制造成国际石油公司在俄投资阻力重重;法律法规方面,俄罗斯不时调整、出台新的法律法规,极大地缩短了国际石油公司的风险预警时间.对此,在进入俄油气领域时,中国石油公司应特别加强与俄罗斯国家控股石油公司的合作;利用资产交换项目,曲线进入俄油气勘探开发市场;发挥自身技术比较优势,实现有效合作;注重工程服务项目与勘探开发项目齐头并进;要充分把握两个有利时间点,当机遇来临之时,果断介入.     

基于缺能经济损失的上海市天然气储备量分析

天然气燃烧后无废渣、废水产生,相较煤炭、石油等能源具有使用安全、热值高、洁净等优势,在上海能源供应比例快速增长,已在能源供应中起到了举足轻重的作用.通过天然气供应系统可靠性分析以及天然气缺能经济损失的计算,提出了上海市天然气最优储备天数的分析方法,并以2011年为例进行了定量计算.分析结果显示,上海市天然气供应中断对经济损失影响较为稳定,但用来防止供应中断的天然气应急储备仍显不足.     

Energy scarcity and economic growth reconsidered

The analysis in this paper is concerned with the effect of energy scarcity on economic growth in the United States. After defining the notion of scarcity and introducing two measures of scarcity, unit costs and relative energy price, changes in the trend in resource scarcity for natural gas, bituminous coal, anthracite coal, and crude oil over the most recent three decades are investigated. Each of the energy resources became significantly more scarce resources during the decade of the 1970s in the Malthusian Stock Scarcity and Malthusian Flow Scarcity sense. Unit costs exhibit a similar change for natural gas and crude oil but not for bituminous coal and anthracite coal. The situation reversed itself during the 1980s. Natural gas, bituminous coal, anthracite coal, and crude oil all became significantly less scarce resources during the decade of the 1980s than they had been during the 1970s. That is, the increase in scarcity as measured by relative energy prices observed during the decade of the 1970s was not reversed completely during the 1980s for natural gas and crude oil. Unit costs for natural gas and crude oil demonstrate analogous patterns and test results. Given that change has taken place, it has implications for future economic growth to the extent resource scarcity and economic growth are interrelated. To see whether this is a relevant concern, subsequent to the examination of changing resource scarcity trends, an objective effort is made to identify a long-run equilibrium relationship between energy scarcity and economic growth. Relying on co-integration techniques, only for crude oil is there a suggestion that resource scarcity has affected economic growth in the United States over the period 1889–1992.     

稠油油藏蒸汽吞吐开采参数优化

通过查阅稠油相关物性及特种油藏相关参数,利用数值模拟方法对蒸汽吞吐的过程进行了数值模拟,得到相关参数的数据,通过对数据的分析以达到注气参数最优化.并对其中主要的注气参数分别进行分析比对,如周期注气量、注气压力和速度等.只有在各参数达到最佳值时才能产生较高的经济效益,此研究对特种油藏的开采提供了依据.     

Global energy security and the implications for the EU

The following article will analyse the global and geopolitical dimensions of the future international energy security and its implications for Europe and the EU-27. In this context, I will discuss to which extent the EU's newly proclaimed “Energy Action Plan” of the EU Spring summit of 2007 and its declared common energy (foreign) policy are a sufficient strategy to cope with the new global and geopolitical challenges. The article concludes the following: (1) The interlinkage between globally designed traditional energy security concepts – that rely just on economic factors and “market-strategies” – and domestic as well as regional political stability demands new thinking with regard to both energy supply security and foreign and security policies. (2) Although after the Russian–Ukrainian gas conflict in January 2006, energy security has forced its way up the European energy and foreign policy agendas, the EU-27 member states have largely failed to forge a coherent European energy security and energy foreign policy strategy after their Spring summit of 2007 because its declared political solidarity has been still lacking. But the 2nd Strategic Energy Review of November 2008 has recommended new initiatives to overcome this lack by promoting concrete infrastructure and other projects for enhancing Europe's supply security and its political solidarity as part of a common energy (foreign) policy. If the EU is able to implement the March 2007 and November 2008 decisions, the EU oil and gas demand will drastically reduce and freeze at current levels. In this case, Putin's energy policies by using Russia's energy resources and pipeline monopolies as a political instrument to enforce its economic and geopolitical interests will be proved as self-defeating in Russia's long-term strategic interests. It will reduce Gazprom's gas exports to a much smaller EU gas market than originally forecasted as the result of a deliberate EU policy of decreasing its overall gas demand and by diversifying its gas imports.     

海外勘探项目最小经济储量规模盈亏平衡模型研究

国内利用盈亏平衡原理,建立最小经济储量规模模型应用成熟,而海外油气勘探项目由于财税条款复杂,盈亏平衡法在最小经济储量计算中的应用还是空白。在分析海外项目矿税制、产品分成制合同者收入、投资、税金等特点的基础上,力图建立合同者收入、投资、成本、税金等和储量的数学关系。假定成本回收油全部用来回收成本,较好地处理了产品分成制下合同者的收入问题;引入单位综合税金,解决海外油气项目复杂的税金问题;通过建立最小储量规模和利润油气分成系数之间的迭代计算,较好地处理滑动的分成系数和最小储量规模的关系。在此基础上,依据盈亏平衡、投入产出相等原理,建立海外勘探项目最小经济储量规模盈亏平衡模型,并给出单位综合税金、利润油气分成系数等主要参数的取值原则。利用模型,计算了中国石化某海外天然气勘探项目在不同资金时间价值下的最小油气储量规模,并与现金流法得到的最小储量规模结果进行比较,对盈亏平衡模型进行了讨论。     

试车锅炉“油改气”的优势及经济效益分析

随着燃油价格的不断上涨以及我国天然气产量的加大,锅炉"油改气"已成为大家日益关注的问题。下面从"油改气"的意义、优点、发展趋势以及经济效益等方面叙述了锅炉"油改气"的可行性。     

俄罗斯油气投资环境与中俄油气合作潜力分析

俄罗斯具有雄厚的油气资源基础,未来为世界提供油气的能力将逐渐增强,2030年俄罗斯能够为世界提供的油气将分别达到790×104bbl/d和2400×108m3,在世界油气供应体系中占有重要地位。俄罗斯与中东、非洲等油气资源富庶区相比,投资环境较好,虽然油气财税政策均有从严趋势,但俄罗斯社会文明程度较高,在国际政治体系中独立性更强,尤其是经济结构转型使俄罗斯对外资的依赖程度更高,是比较理想的油气合作伙伴。中俄经济互补性强,开展油气合作具有地利优势,就保障我国油气安全而言,中俄油气合作更具现实性。当前中俄战略合作已进入新阶段,为进一步的油气合作奠定了基础。中国应抓住这一发展机遇,将中俄油气合作视为未来的海外发展重点,认真研究俄罗斯对外油气合作的政策和态度,继续坚持市场换资源战略,为中俄未来的油气合作创造更为有利的条件。     

Estimating the impact of royalty relief on oil and gas production on marginal state leases in the US

An emerging challenge for several energy-producing states will be the development of policies that encourage the continued economic development of maturing oil and gas properties. Production rates naturally decline as wells age. This is particularly true for properties approaching “marginal” status in many energy-producing states where continued operation under expected economic conditions becomes questionable. Premature shut-in of these wells may entail loss of production, economic output, employment, and state revenues. This paper examines the potential impact of royalty relief on state leases and economic production using Louisiana as a case study. Two production related measures for state leases are estimated: (1) current production position relative to the age of the property and (2) the current costs of production for the given property at a given or anticipated level of output. Those wells/leases that are estimated as having negative profitability (i.e., losses) or operating at break-even levels are candidates for “marginal” classification. The number of wells and production associated with these marginal leases will then be estimated. The economic impacts of offering royalty relief at the 25% level are considered. Under the royalty relief scenario, a minimal amount of increased revenues is realized by the state and the discount provides only incremental production from marginal wells relative to total state production.     

委内瑞拉石油工业形势及对我国的影响

委内瑞拉是一个严重依赖石油出口的石油大国,其石油工业具有良好的发展前景。据BP数据,2010年委石油探明剩余可采储量占全球的15.3%,仅次于沙特而居第二位。如果计入已达到经济可采边际的奥里诺科重油带的重油,则其全部储量可超过沙特常规石油储量。奥里诺科已成为委最重要的石油蕴藏区,近年其石油产量主要来自重/超重质油粗加工而成的奥里乳化油。委还拥有丰富的天然气资源,但长期以来的指导思想是重油轻气。2009年委石油出口额占到出口总额的94.1%,暴露出经济结构失调、过分依靠石油出口的缺陷。委内瑞拉政局动荡,近30余年来石油政策多变。查维斯执政后大力实施新国有化,其石油政策的直接后果是外资投入和国家石油公司对石油的投资明显不足,导致石油产量、出口量下降,原拟以石油收入全面发展油气工业、调整不均衡的经济结构、大幅提高人民生活水平的愿望也难以实现。石油是委内瑞拉与中国贸易的主要品种,虽然近年委中贸易量有所提高,但还是有很大的发展空间。我国对委内瑞拉投资巨大,互补双赢的"贷款换石油"模式已在中国与原油和原料输出国的合作中被广泛采用。中国公司应继续以奥里诺科重油带的勘探开发为工作重点,并及早在我国规划适于加工奥里乳化油的炼厂,同时继续发展对委老油田的工作。如果委政局发生重大变化,或是油价下跌,将可能导致其社会、经济出现动荡,这已引起国际分析机构的关注。我国应充分发挥合资公司各方和本地员工的积极性,更全面地进入委油气领域的上中下游各环节,并在其经济的各个方面进行更全面的合作,对各类政府势力要进行全方位的友好交往。     

The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states

While the shale revolution was largely a US’ affair, it affects the global energy system. In this paper, we look at the effects of this spectacular increase in natural gas, and oil, extraction capacity can have on the mix of primary energy sources, on energy prices, and through that on internal political stability of rentier states. We use two exploratory simulation models to investigate the consequences of the combination of both complexity and uncertainty in relation to the global energy system and state stability. Our simulations show that shale developments could be seen as part of a long term hog-cycle, with a short term drop in oil prices if unconventional supply substitutes demand for oil. These lower oil prices may lead to instability in rentier states neighbouring the EU, especially when dependence on oil and gas income is high, youth bulges are present, or buffers like sovereign wealth funds are too limited to bridge the negative economic effects of temporary low oil prices.     

The economic viability of gas-to-liquids technology and the crude oil–natural gas price relationship

This paper explores the viability of a gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology and examines how GTL penetration could shape the evolution of the crude oil–natural gas price ratio. Much research has established the cointegrated relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices in the U.S. The persistently low U.S. natural gas prices in recent years seem to mark a shift in this relationship, and have led some in industry to begin considering investments in GTL capacity in the US. In order to look forward over decades when the underlying economic drivers may be outside of historical experience, we use a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy to evaluate the economic viability of GTL and its impact on the evolution of the crude oil–natural gas price ratio. Our results are negative for the potential role of GTL. In order to produce any meaningful penetration of GTL, we find it necessary to evaluate scenarios that seem extreme. With any carbon cap GTL is not viable. Moreover, even without a carbon cap of any kind, extremely optimistic assumptions about (i) the cost and efficiency of GTL technology and about (ii) the available resource base of natural gas and the cost of extraction, before the technology penetrates and it impacts the evolution of the crude oil–natural gas price ratio.     

凝析气藏工业气流影响因素分析

凝析气藏在气田开发中占有重要地位,具有较高的经济价值。严格执行工业气流标准是确保气藏地质储量具有开发效益的前提,而DZ／T0217—2005《石油天然气储量计算规范》没有明显体现凝析油对凝析气藏工业气流的影响。根据凝析气藏工业气流计算模型,以西部某凝析气藏各项参数情况为例,定量分析了各种因素对凝析气藏工业气流的影响。结果表明：①与干气藏相比,凝析气藏的工业气流还受凝析油价格、凝析油含量和轻烃回收费的影响;②凝析气藏的工业气流随天然气价格、凝析油价格、凝析油含量的增加而减小,随气藏埋藏深度、轻烃回收费、递减率的增加而增加;③最敏感因素是气藏埋藏深度,其次是天然气价格、凝析油价格和凝析油含量．轻烃回收费和递减率的变化影响较小。本文提出的方法也适用于含硫化氢等复杂成分气藏工业气流的影响因素分析。     

非洲油气资源及其宏观投资环境

非洲已成为我国石油进口的主要来源地之一,近年来我国有超过30%的进口石油来自非洲。非洲地区油气资源丰富,勘探程度相对较低,预计整个地区待探明石油技术可采资源量高达200×108t左右,具有巨大的油气勘探开发潜力。非洲油气主要用于出口,2011年非洲石油产量的62%和天然气产量的46%均用于出口。总体上讲,非洲地区具有良好的油气投资开发前景,但其宏观投资环境不容乐观,北非、西非等传统油气资源国安全形势堪忧,政治经济局势不稳定,石油政策走向不确定以及海盗活动猖獗等都加剧了非洲地区油气投资的风险。建议我国应尽早制定非洲油气资源发展中长期发展规划,明确不同阶段的目标、方向;建立非洲油气资源国投资环境评价体系和油气勘探风险保障机制,以降低企业投资风险;在传统油气合作的基础上,进一步拓展与新兴产油国的合作,也可考虑与加蓬、尼日尔等政局相对稳定的国家进行规模合作。另外,在中非合作中一定要遵循"互利共赢"的原则,巩固和发展与非洲国家的战略合作伙伴关系,争取更多、更稳定的油气合作项目。     

Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios

A framework is developed for planning the mitigation of the oil shortages that will be caused by world oil production reaching a maximum and going into decline. To estimate potential economic impacts, a reasonable relationship between percent decline in world oil supply and percent decline in world GDP was determined to be roughly 1:1. As a limiting case for decline rates, giant fields were examined. Actual oil production from Europe and North America indicated significant periods of relatively flat oil production (plateaus). However, before entering its plateau period, North American oil production went through a sharp peak and steep decline. Examination of a number of future world oil production forecasts showed multi-year rollover/roll-down periods, which represent pseudoplateaus. Consideration of resource nationalism posits an Oil Exporter Withholding Scenario, which could potentially overwhelm all other considerations. Three scenarios for mitigation planning resulted from this analysis: (1) A Best Case, where maximum world oil production is followed by a multi-year plateau before the onset of a monatomic decline rate of 2–5% per year; (2) A Middling Case, where world oil production reaches a maximum, after which it drops into a long-term, 2–5% monotonic annual decline; and finally (3) A Worst Case, where the sharp peak of the Middling Case is degraded by oil exporter withholding, leading to world oil shortages growing potentially more rapidly than 2–5% per year, creating the most dire world economic impacts.     

The general equilibrium costs and impacts of oil price shocks in Newfoundland and Labrador

The 2014–2015 dramatic drop in world oil prices had devastating impacts on a global scale. We analyse economic costs and impacts of a negative oil price shock following the 2014–2015 decrease in oil prices on the provincial economy of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. We use a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to estimate a drop in oil prices by inputting the estimated effect as a direct impact to royalties, which are the land input in the oil and gas sector of the provincial economy. We provide sensitivity to account for the duration and magnitude of the shock, as well as the timing of recovery. Our results suggest that a shock in the price of oil will have its most significant impact on GDP in the initial years. Over the first five years, the reduction in GDP due to this shock would be roughly 2.1% of GDP in our most realistic shock scenario, but could be much higher in other scenarios considered. A sharp drop in GDP over the first five years will be mitigated somewhat in the long run as the growth in oil prices rises; however, negative long run impacts to GDP persist due to the oil price shock in 2014–2015, and will worsen if there is a prolonged shock.     

Long-term effects of income specialization in oil and gas extraction: The U.S. West, 1980–2011

The purpose of the study is to evaluate the relationships between oil and natural gas specialization and socioeconomic well-being during the period 1980 to 2011 in a large sample of counties within the six major oil- and gas-producing states in the interior U.S. West: Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. The effects of participation in the early 1980s oil and gas boom and long-term specialization were considered as possible drivers of socioeconomic outcomes. Generalized estimating equations were used to regress 11 measures of economic growth and quality of life on oil and gas specialization while accounting for various confounding factors including degree of access to markets, initial socioeconomic conditions in 1980, and dependence on other economic sectors. Long-term oil and gas specialization is observed to have negative effects on change in per capita income, crime rate, and education rate. Participation in the early 1980s boom was positively associated with change in per capita income; however the positive effect decreases the longer counties remain specialized in oil and gas. Our findings contribute to a broader public dialogue about the consequences of resource specialization involving oil and natural gas and call into question the assumption that long-term oil and gas development confers economic advantages upon host communities.     

以循环经济的理念 促进油页岩产业健康发展

作为油气资源的重要补充,我国油页岩的开发和利用取得了重大成就。本文对吉林省在开发和综合利用油页岩产业方面进行了简要的评述。经过综合开发利用,可以实现油页岩"吃干榨尽",实现经济效益和生态效益双丰收。     

煤炭对国民经济发展贡献的定量分析

本文在全面分析了煤炭消费与国民经济发展关系的基础上,侧重于煤炭对国民经济发展贡献的经济指标,采用定量分析的方法,对"十一五"期间我国煤炭GDP贡献率、吨煤经济效益进行了计算分析。本文还就主要能源生产行业对国民经济贡献大小进行了比较。研究结果表明,"十一五"期间,我国煤炭生产和主要用煤行业对GDP总量和增量的总贡献率分别为15%和18%左右;相对于油气开发行业和电热生产行业,煤炭开发行业的GDP贡献率指标增长速度较快,于2008年超过油气开发行业跃居第2位。