基于蒙特卡罗法的农业水利工程不可预见费研究

针对农业水利工程造价中费用构成的不足,提出增设不可预见费以保证项目投资的安全。为此,运用Spss软件对农业水利工程不可预见费中的各影响因素的分布情况进行拟合分析,建立不可预见费费率估算模型,采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对辽宁省法库县近三年已竣工的农业水利工程施工中不可预见因素数据进行模拟试验。结果表明,辽宁省法库地区农业水利工程不可预见费费率为5%,计算结果较为符合实际情况,为确定合理的建设投资标准提供了依据。     

考虑全过程的超高压基建工程管控指标体系

为降低超高压基建工程的造价成本、实现集约化管理控制模式,基于经济—能源—环境协调发展的要求,针对超高压基建工程管理控制流程中存在的问题,结合全过程理论,分析了我国超高压基建工程5个阶段关键性影响因素,提出了考虑全过程的超高压基建工程管控指标体系。     

燃油系统模糊神经网络故障诊断专家系统研究

专家系统前景广阔，前人在该领域的理论和实践方面已做了大量的工作，但传统的专家系统存在许多缺陷，因此欲使其得到进一步发展就必须引入其它先进技术。为解决传统专家系统知识获取和经验性知识的不确定性等“瓶颈”问题，提出将模糊神经网络技术引入到专家系统中。介绍了基于模糊神经网络的专家系统构成的原理、方法、结构和实现技术。将基于模糊多层感知器构成的专家系统应用于柴油机燃油系统故障的分类诊断中，收到了很好的效果。     

智能电网继电保护定值在线比对和固化系统

针对目前继电保护装置的定值比对效率低下和定值固化存在电网风险、作业风险的问题,提出了适用于智能电网继电的基于多源数据的定值在线比对方法以及基于专家系统的定值固化系统。该系统考虑不同设备间的兼容性,使用统一的定值模板和模糊匹配的方法进行首部匹配、包含匹配、关键词匹配和尾部匹配获取设备的定值数据,并将设备实时运行时的定值数据与标准定值进行比较,若不同则发送故障警告。基于专家系统的定值固化,根据专家经验及正向与逆向推理相结合的方法确定设备的固化方式。系统实现及仿真结果表明,该系统能有效保护电网设备的运行,为继电保护和自动化管理提供了可行的方法。     

基于模糊Petri网的知识表示方法在燃气轮机故障诊断专家系统中的应用

给出了用模糊Petri网模型来表示燃气轮机故障诊断专家系统中模糊产生式知识库的方法,在此模型的基础上,给出了有效的推理算法,并举例验证其正确性和在燃气轮机专家系统中应用的可行性。图2参5     

模糊专家系统及其在汽轮发电机组故障诊断中的应用

提出了一种用于汽轮发电机组故障诊断的模糊专家系统,分析了人机界面、解释机、知识库及推理机四部分功能;通过研究诊断规则的前提条件、权系数、前提真度及模糊结论置信度的确定方法,实现了知识库中模糊产生式规则表达;研究了基于正向推理控制策略的模糊推理方法,并分析了诊断结果的冲突消解方法。通过对汽轮发电机组汽流激振故障的案例分析,验证了本文模糊专家系统的有效性,为汽轮发电机组故障诊断提供了一种有效可行的方法。     

汽轮机低周疲劳损伤的快速估算方法

结合产生式专家系统和BP神经网络的特点,提出了基于有限元计算的汽轮机低周疲劳损伤和寿命估算神经网络专家系统方法,建立了系统框架,并进行了系统测试,。测试结果表明,该方法是可行的且具有快速, 准确,灵活的特点。     

基于模糊神经网络的发动机故障诊断专家系统的研究

根据发动机的组成结构、功能原理及维修专家的实际经验，提出了一种基于模糊神经网络的故障诊断方法，将模糊逻辑和神经网络与传统的专家系统结合起来，开发出发动机故障诊断专家系统软件。该系统具有推理过程简单、快捷和准确等优点。     

基于改进模糊层次分析法的施工进度风险分析

针对传统施工进度风险评价方法存在的不足,从风险因素影响权重的确定存在不确定性和模糊性入手,将传统的模糊层次分析法中的点标度扩充到区间标度,提出了一种基于三元区间数的模糊区间层次分析法(FIAHP),即改进的模糊层次分析法,通过该方法确定风险影响权重,以此将工序模糊工期按照风险影响程度进行改进,得到与每次迭代时风险因素的不同状况对应的工序持续时间,据此借助Excel和Crystal Ball软件进行项目工期仿真计算,从而确定项目的网络进度工期。实例应用结果表明,所提方法得到的项目工期可靠性更高,且更加符合实际。     

火电机组负荷多模型鲁棒预见控制方法

提出一种火电机组负荷多模型鲁棒预见控制方法,该方法首先对负荷区间进行模糊划分,然后在每个模糊子区间建立相应的结构参数摄动模型,并使用鲁棒预见控制方法设计控制器,最后总的控制量为多个子控制器输出的加权平均。仿真研究表明,该方法能够使负荷系统获得良好的全局控制性能。     

500 kV交流超高压电缆选型分析

通过在绝缘结构、金属护套结构和外护套结构3个主要方面的技术性能对比,分析对电缆载流量、分段盘长、结构机械性能和工程投资的影响,给500kV交流超高压电缆应用设计选型建议：交联聚乙烯（xLPE）绝缘、空气中敷设优选平滑铝护套、环保低热阻的外护套。     

Economic study of a large-scale renewable hydrogen application utilizing surplus renewable energy and natural gas pipeline transportation in China

A novel project solution for large-scale hydrogen application is proposed utilizing surplus wind and solar generated electricity for hydrogen generation and NG pipeline transportation for hydrogen-natural gas mixtures (called HCNG). This application can practically solve urgent issues of large-scale surplus wind and solar generated electricity and increasing NG demand in China. Economic evaluation is performed in terms of electricity and equipment capacity estimation, cost estimation, sensitivity analysis, profitability analysis and parametric study. Equipment expenses are dominant in the construction period, especially those of the electrolysers. Electricity cost and transportation cost are the main annual operating costs and greatly influence the HCNG and pure hydrogen costs. The project proves to be feasible through the profitability analysis. The main influence items are tested individually to guarantee project profitability within 22 years. The project can reduce 388.40 M Nm³ CO₂ emissions and increase 2998.52 M$ incomes for solar and wind power stations.     

A GIS-based assessment of coal-based hydrogen infrastructure deployment in the state of Ohio

Hydrogen infrastructure costs will vary by region as geographic characteristics and feedstocks differ. This paper proposes a method for optimizing regional hydrogen infrastructure deployment by combining detailed spatial data in a geographic information system (GIS) with a technoeconomic model of hydrogen infrastructure components. The method is applied to a case study in Ohio in which coal-based hydrogen infrastructure with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is modeled for two distribution modes at several steady-state hydrogen vehicle market penetration levels. The paper identifies the optimal infrastructure design at each market penetration as well as the costs, CO₂ emissions, and energy use associated with each infrastructure pathway. The results indicate that aggregating infrastructure at the regional-scale yields lower levelized costs of hydrogen than at the city-level at a given market penetration level, and centralized production with pipeline distribution is the favored pathway even at low market penetration. Based upon the hydrogen infrastructure designs evaluated in this paper, coal-based hydrogen production with CCS can significantly reduce transportation-related CO₂ emissions at a relatively low infrastructure cost and levelized fuel cost.     

IGCC电厂的工程设计、采购和施工成本的估算模型

在对整体煤气化联合循环(IGCC)电厂进行经济性估算时,工程设计、采购和施工成本(EPC)的估算直接影响其结果的准确性.国外相关EPC模型并不适用于我国.为此,结合国内情况以及相应设备的实际报价和工程造价,充分考虑到国产化程度的不同,对这些投资模型进行了修正,主要包括对地区因子、规模因子、时间因子的修正和添加,从而得到符合我国实际情况的IGCC的EPC模型.     

Analysis of the cost of hydrogen infrastructure for buses in London

The use of hydrogen (H₂) as transport fuel is often said to suffer from the ‘chicken and egg’ problem: vehicles that depend on H₂ cannot go on the roads due to the lack of an adequate infrastructure, and the almost non-existent fleet of H₂ vehicles on the roads makes it economically unsound to build a H₂ infrastructure.Although both hydrogen vehicles (fuel cell and internal combustion engine) and the related infrastructure have been (and are being) developed and some are commercially available, cost is seen as a major barrier. With today's technologies, H₂ only becomes competitive with petrol and diesel when produced at large quantities, suitable for supplying e.g. thousands of H₂ buses. The question is, how might this point be reached, and are there least cost infrastructural pathways to reach it. This paper tries to address the latter question, using the early development of a H₂ infrastructure for buses in London as a case study.The paper presents some of the analyses and results from a Ph.D. project (in progress) being undertaken at Imperial College London, funded by EPSRC (Grant GR/R50790/01). The results presented here illustrate that cost of hydrogen production and delivery vary mainly with levels of hydrogen demand and delivery distances, as well as other logistic criteria; least cost production–delivery pathways have been identified for various hydrogen demand scenarios and refuelling station set-ups. Another important conclusion is that the pattern of converting a group of refuelling stations to hydrogen (e.g. a group of refuelling stations for buses in London) has a significant effect on the unit cost of hydrogen.     

Scope and perspectives of industrial hydrogen production and infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles in North Rhine-Westphalia

A promising candidate that may follow conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines combines hydrogen from regenerative sources of energy, fuel cells and an electric drive train. For early fleets introduced the refuelling infrastructure needs to be in place at least to the extent of the vehicles operational reach. The question arises which strategies may help to keep initial hydrogen and infrastructure cost low? Industrial production, distribution and use of hydrogen is well-established and the volumes handled are substantial. Even though today's industrial hydrogen is not in tune with the long-term sustainable vision, hydrogen production and infrastructure already in place might serve as a nucleus for putting that vision into practice. This contribution takes stock of industrial production and use of hydrogen in North Rhine-Westphalia based on a recently finalized project. It demonstrates to which extent industrial hydrogen could be used for a growing number of vehicles and at which time additional capacity might need to be installed.     

A spatially-explicit optimization model for long-term hydrogen pipeline planning

One of the major barriers to the deployment of hydrogen as a transportation fuel is the lack of an infrastructure for supplying the fuel to consumers. Consequently, models are needed to evaluate the cost and design of various infrastructure deployment strategies. The best strategy will likely differ between regions based on the spatial distribution of H₂ demand and variations in regional feedstock costs. Although several spatially-explicit infrastructure models have been developed, none of the published models are capable of optimizing interconnected regional pipeline networks for linking multiple production facilities and demand locations. This paper describes the Hydrogen Production and Transmission (HyPAT) model, which is a network optimization tool for identifying the lowest cost centralized production and pipeline transmission infrastructure within real geographic regions. A case study in the southwestern United States demonstrates the capabilities and outputs of the model.     

A comparative techno-economic and quantitative risk analysis of hydrogen delivery infrastructure options

The comparative techno-economic analysis and quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of the hydrogen delivery infrastructure covering the national hydrogen demands are presented to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the infrastructure of commercial hydrogen delivery. The cost calculation model, which was based on the hydrogen delivery scenario analysis model (HDSAM), was employed to estimate the costs of hydrogen fuel delivery in Seoul, Korea, whose area is small enough to not require intermediate delivery stations. The QRA methodology was modified to be suitable for the comparative analysis of the whole hydrogen infrastructure. The capacities of a hydrogen refueling station and the hydrogen market penetration were employed as the main variables and the two scenarios, viz. the gaseous and liquid hydrogen delivery options, were considered. The analysis results indicate that the delivery system of gaseous hydrogen was superior in terms of cost and that of liquid hydrogen was superior in terms of safety. Both delivery options were affected by the capacity of the station and the market penetration, and the cost and risk drastically changed, especially when the two variables were small. Thus, according to the results, the economic and safety issues of the hydrogen delivery infrastructure are critical to achieving a hydrogen energy society.