Optimal climate protection strategies for space heating: The case of Austria

The debate over the costs of climate protection policies still focuses on the question of whether strategies to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions at zero or negative net cost (‘no regrets’ strategies) can be found. This article describes a carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction strategy for space and water heating in Austria relying on net present value analyses of 43 climate protection measures. The cost-benefit analyses include investment costs, the savings from energy conservation, the administrative costs of policy instruments and estimates of the external costs. An efficient CO₂ reduction strategy was developed on the basis of energy supply curves which were adapted so that interactions between the CO₂ reduction technologies could be considered. A cost-efficient CO₂ reduction strategy could lower the CO₂ emissions for the provision of space and water heating in Austria by up to 2.7% per year relative to the official ‘business as usual’ scenario.     

A comparison of electricity and hydrogen production systems with CO2 capture and storage—Part B: Chain analysis of promising CCS options

Promising electricity and hydrogen production chains with CO₂ capture, transport and storage (CCS) and energy carrier transmission, distribution and end-use are analysed to assess (avoided) CO₂ emissions, energy production costs and CO₂ mitigation costs. For electricity chains, the performance is dominated by the impact of CO₂ capture, increasing electricity production costs with 10–40% up to 4.5–6.5 €ct/kWh. CO₂ transport and storage in depleted gas fields or aquifers typically add another 0.1–1 €ct/kWh for transport distances between 0 and 200 km. The impact of CCS on hydrogen costs is small. Production and supply costs range from circa 8 €/GJ for the minimal infrastructure variant in which hydrogen is delivered to CHP units, up to 20 €/GJ for supply to households. Hydrogen costs for the transport sector are between 14 and 16 €/GJ for advanced large-scale coal gasification units and reformers, and over 20 €/GJ for decentralised membrane reformers. Although the CO₂ price required to induce CCS in hydrogen production is low in comparison to most electricity production options, electricity production with CCS generally deserves preference as CO₂ mitigation option. Replacing natural gas or gasoline for hydrogen produced with CCS results in mitigation costs over 100 €/t CO₂, whereas CO₂ in the power sector could be reduced for costs below 60 €/t CO₂ avoided.     

Atmospheric stabilization of CO2 emissions: Near-term reductions and absolute versus intensity-based targets

This study analyzes CO₂ emissions reduction targets for various countries and geopolitical regions by the year 2030 to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ at 450 ppm (550 ppm including non-CO₂ greenhouse gases) level. It also determines CO₂ intensity cuts that would be required in those countries and regions if the emission reductions were to be achieved through intensity-based targets without curtailing their expected economic growth. Considering that the stabilization of CO₂ concentrations at 450 ppm requires the global trend of CO₂ emissions to be reversed before 2030, this study develops two scenarios: reversing the global CO₂ trend in (i) 2020 and (ii) 2025. The study shows that global CO₂ emissions would be limited at 42 percent above 1990 level in 2030 if the increasing trend of global CO₂ emissions were to be reversed by 2020. If reversing the trend is delayed by 5 years, global CO₂ emissions in 2030 would be 52 percent higher than the 1990 level. The study also finds that to achieve these targets while maintaining expected economic growth, the global average CO₂ intensity would require a 68 percent drop from the 1990 level or a 60 percent drop from the 2004 level by 2030.     

Alkaline falling-film fuel cell A breakthrough in technology and cost

The work described in this paper was oriented towards fuel cells for practical applications, but mainly presents data obtained using half-cells. The economic significance of these data is discussed, together with the technical concept of fuel cell power stations and for transportation applications. The proposed fuel cell with generate power at much lower costs than conventional power plants, and a zero-emission vehicle with fuel cells will operate at lower fuel cost than a car with an internal combustion engine. The simple falling-film process leads to high power densities (6 kW/l) and low cost. The details given are valid for the use of hydrogen produced from fossil energy sources. Concentrated CO₂, a byproduct of this technology can be stored in discussed oil and gas fields at a very low cost to avoid global warming. Thus, this ‘down-to-earth’ hydrogen technology is a free from CO₂ emissions as solar-hydrogen technology.     

Cost and performance of CO2 storage in forestry projects

In order to include forestry projects in a possible CO₂ emission reduction regime, and to compare the costs of individual projects or national programs, it is necessary to determine the rate of equivalency between carbon in fossil fuel emissions and carbon stored in different types of forestry projects. This paper presents a comprehensive and consistent methodology to account for the costs and carbon flows of different categories of forestry projects and describes the application of the methodology to a set of projects in Central America. Several estimates have been made to date of the overall potential for carbon storage through global reforestation and the costs of such efforts, based on global macroeconomic estimates and extrapolations from current forest-sector experience. However, there has yet to be a consistent analysis of the magnitude and cost of carbon savings by a “bottom-up” approach to sustainable forestry development

This methodology is applied to a set of projects proposed in Costa Rica and other Central American countries under the Tropical Forest Action Plan, to estimate a sample set of national CO₂ reduction cost curves. The costs of carbon savings in the forestry projects studied in Central America mostly fall between $5 and $13 ton-C¹, depending on the type of project, the climate, and the opportunity cost of land. These projects also promise socio-economic benefits at the local level, provided they are adequately endowed with funding, training and institutional support. The total amount of CO₂ storage potential is significant, about 100 million tons per country, but not enough to suggest that forestry can offset more than a few percent of global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel use.     

The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emissions

We estimate the amount of carbon dioxide embodied in bi-lateral trade between the UK and China in 2004. Developing and applying the method of Shui and Harriss [2006. The role of CO₂ embodiment in US–China trade. Energy Policy 34, 4063–4068], the most recently available data on trade and CO₂ emissions have been updated and adjusted to calculate the CO₂ emissions embodied in the commodities traded between China and the UK. It was found that through trade with China, the UK reduced its CO₂ emissions by approximately 11% in 2004, compared with a non-trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the UK. In addition, due to the greater carbon-intensity and relatively less efficient production processes of Chinese industry, China–UK trade resulted in an additional 117 Mt of CO₂ to global CO₂ emissions in the same one year period, compared with a non-trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the UK. This represents an additional 19% to the reported national CO₂ emissions of the UK (555 Mt/y in 2004) and 0.4% of global emissions. These findings suggest that, through international trade, very significant environmental impacts can be shifted from one country to another, and that international trade can (but does not necessarily) result in globally increased greenhouse gas emissions. These results are additional to the environmental consequences of transporting goods, which are not robustly quantified here.     

Mitigation assessment results and priorities for China''s energy sector

Energy-related CO₂ emission projections of China up to 2030 are given. CO₂ mitigation potential and technology options in main fields of energy conservation and energy substitution are analyzed. CO₂ reduction costs of main mitigation technologies are estimated and the multi-criteria approach is used for assessment of priority technologies.

The results of this study show (1) Given population expansion and high GDP growth, energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase in China. (2) There exists a large energy conservation potential in China. (3) Adjustment of industry structure and increase of shares of products with high added value have and will play a very important role in reducing energy intensity of GDP. (4) Energy conservation and substitution of coal by natural gas, nuclear power, hydropower and renewable energy will be the key technological measures in a long-term strategy to reduce GHG emission. (5) Identification and implementation of GHG mitigation technologies is consistent with China's targets of sustainable development and environmental protection. (6) Energy efficiency improvement is a “no-regret” option for CO₂ reduction, whereas an incremental cost is needed to develop hydropower and renewable energy.     

Short-term impact of green certificates and CO2 emissions trading in the Swedish district heating sector

Swedish district-heating (DH) systems use a wide range of energy sources and technologies for heat-and-power generation. This provides the DH utilities with major flexibility in changing their fuel and technology mix when the economic conditions for generation change. Two recently introduced policy instruments have changed the DH utilities’ costs for generation considerably; the tradable green-certificate (TGC) scheme introduced in 2003 in Sweden, and the tradable greenhouse-gas emission permit (TEP) scheme introduced in the EU on January 1, 2005. The objective of this study is to analyse how these two trading schemes impact on the operation of the Swedish DH sector in terms of changes in CHP generation, CO₂ emissions, and operating costs. The analysis was carried out by comparing the most cost-effective operation for the DH utilities, with and without, the two trading schemes applied, using a model that handles the Swedish DH-sector system-by-system. It was found that the volume of renewable power generated in CHP plants only increased slightly owing to the TGC scheme. The TGC and the TEP schemes in force together, however, nearly doubled the renewable power-generation. CO₂ emissions from the DH sector may either increase or decrease depending on the combination of TGC and TEP prices. The overall CO₂ emissions from the European power-generation sector would, however, be reduced for all price combinations assuming that increased Swedish CHP generation replaces coal-condensing power (coal-fired plants with power generation only) in other European countries. The trading schemes also lower the operational costs of the DH sector since the cost increase owing to the use of more expensive fuels and the purchase of TEPs is outweighed by the increased revenues from sales of electricity and TGCs.     

Recovery of fluorocarbons in Japan as a measure for abating global warming

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for recovering fluorocarbons as measures for the abatement of global warming. In this study, we focused on the three different kinds of fluorocarbons: CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs, and targeted refrigerant use because of the availability of relevant data. We first estimated future fluorocarbon emissions from the targeted appliances; we next compared those emissions in the units of CO₂ equivalent to the level of CO₂ emissions in 1990 from a quantitative point of view. As the result of this study, it was found that fluorocarbon emissions in 1999 and 2010 would be equal to approximately 7 and 3% of the level of CO₂ emissions in 1990 respectively. Moreover, if we implement a 100% recovery rate in every recovery route, we can reduce a large amount of emissions which correspond to approximately 2–5% of the level of CO₂ emissions in 1990, even if we take into account the energy-related CO₂ emissions by the transportation and decomposition of fluorocarbons.     

Prediction of cost and emission from Indian coal-fired power plants with CO2 capture and storage using artificial intelligence techniques

Coal-fired power plants are one of the most important targets with respect to reduction of CO₂ emissions. The reasons for this are that coal-fired power plants offer localized large point sources (LPS) of CO₂ and that the Indian power sector contributes to roughly half of all-India CO₂ emissions. CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) can be implemented in these power plants for long-term decarbonisation of the Indian economy. In this paper, two artificial intelligence (AI) techniques—adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multi gene genetic programming (MGGP) are used to model Indian coal-fired power plants with CO₂ capture. The data set of 75 power plants take the plant size, the capture type, the load and the CO₂ emission as the input and the COE and annual CO₂ emissions as the output. It is found that MGGP is more suited to these applications with an R² value of more than 99% between the predicted and actual values, as against the ~96% correlation for the ANFIS approach. MGGP also gives the traditionally expected results in sensitivity analysis, which ANFIS fails to give. Several other parameters in the base plant and CO₂ capture unit may be included in similar studies to give a more accurate result. This is because MGGP gives a better perspective toward qualitative data, such as capture type, as compared to ANFIS.     

CO2 utilization options, part II: Assessment of dimethyl carbonate production

In this paper, the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions from dimethyl carbonate production by switching from the traditional phosgene-based production to a urea-based CO₂ utilization process is assessed. The total CO₂ emission for each process is estimated, including emissions related to the carbon content of the products, energy consumption in the production process, and energy consumption in the production processes of the required reactants. Implementation of the CO₂ utilization process probably will reduce total CO₂ emissions. However, in order to achieve substantially reduced CO₂ emissions, serious consideration must be given to the optimization and design of the CO₂ utilization process. Furthermore, the fuel-mix employed is one of the factors that influences the total CO₂ emission the most.     

Cost effective integration of hydrogen in energy systems with CO2 constraints

The integration of hydrogen in national energy systems is illustrated in four extreme scenarios, reflecting four technological mainstreams (energy conservation, renewables, nuclear and CO₂ removal) to reduce C emissions. Hydrogen is cost-effective in all scenarios with higher CO₂ reduction targets. Hydrogen would be produced from fossil fuels, or from water and electricity or heat, depending upon the scenario. Hydrogen would be used in the residential and commercial sectors and for transport vehicles, industry, and electricity generation in fuel cells. At severe (50–70%) CO₂ reduction targets, hydrogen would cost-effectively supply more than half of the total useful energy demands in three out of four scenarios. The marginal emission reduction costs in the CO₂ removal scenario at severe CO₂ reduction targets are DFL 200/tCO₂ (ca $ 100/t). In the nuclear, renewable and energy conservation scenarios these costs are much higher. Whilst the fossil fuel scenario would be less expensive than the other scenarios, the possibility of CO₂ storage in depleted gas reservoirs is a conditio sine qua non.     

CO2 emissions per individual based on a survey of university students

The amount of CO₂ produced by the daily activities of university students is estimated on the basis of statistical, questionnaire, and measurement data. The results reveal that a large proportion of CO₂ emissions occurs during energy consumption, food preparation and transport, and that the CO₂ emissions of dormitory residents are lower than those of students living in other situations. Practical methods for reducing student CO₂ emissions are also examined.     

China’s pre-2020 CO2 emission reduction potential and its influence

China achieved the reduction of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 45% compared with 2005 at the end of 2017, realizing the commitment at 2009 Copenhagen Conference on emissions reduction 3 years ahead of time. In future implementation of the “13th Five-Year Plan (FYP),” with the decline of economic growth rate, decrease of energy consumption elasticity and optimization of energy structure, the CO₂ intensity of GDP will still have the potential for decreasing before 2020. By applying KAYA Formula decomposition, this paper makes the historical statistics of the GDP energy intensity decrease and CO₂ intensity of energy consumption since 2005, and simulates the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 and its influences on achieving National Determined Contribution (NDC) target in 2030 with scenario analysis. The results show that China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by 52.9%–54.4% than the 2005 level, and will be 22.9%–25.4% lower than 2015. Therefore, it is likely to overfulfill the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 18% proposed in the 13th FYP period. Furthermore, the emission reduction potentiality before 2020 will be conducive to the earlier realization of NDC objectives in 2030. China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2030 will fall by over 70% than that in 2005, and CO₂ emissions peak will appear before 2030 as early as possible. To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, China needs to make better use of the carbon market, and guide the whole society with carbon price to reduce emissions effectively. At the same time, China should also study the synergy of policy package so as to achieve the target of emission reduction.     

A proposed industrial-boiler efficiency program in Shanxi: potential CO2-mitigation, health benefits and associated costs

An industrial boiler-efficiency improvement program (IBEI) that focuses on simple, inexpensive measures to improve the operating efficiency of coal-fired industrial boilers in Shanxi, China, is presented. The potential mitigation of CO₂ emissions and its cost, based on this program, are calculated together with estimates of health benefits associated with the reduction of air pollution. The results show that, if the average efficiency of industrial boilers were improved from 60 to 70%, 3 million tons of coal could be saved, and CO₂ emissions be reduced by 5 million tons annually at a cost of less than US$2 per ton of CO₂. The health benefits are valued at about US$86 million per year, including the avoidance of about 700 premature deaths annually. The proposed IBEI program would, therefore provide an ideal case by which to address the issue of global warming in China and to achieve national goals concerning the growth of the economy, and environmental protection.     

CO2 emissions embodied in international trade: evidence for Spain

The objective of this paper is to analyse the sectoral impacts that Spanish international trade relations have on present levels of atmospheric pollution using an input–output model. We try to evaluate the exports and imports of the Spanish economy in terms of the direct and indirect CO₂ emissions (CO₂ embodied) generated in Spain and abroad. The results show a slightly exporting behaviour in the Spanish economy which, nevertheless, hides important pollution interchanges. Moreover, the sectors transport material, mining and energy, non-metallic industries, chemical and metals are the most relevant CO₂ exporters and other services, construction, transport material and food the biggest CO₂ importers, and those whose final demands also embody more than 70% of the CO₂ emissions.     

Evaluation of potential cost reductions from improved amine-based CO2 capture systems

Technological innovations in CO₂ capture and storage technologies are being pursued worldwide under a variety of private and government-sponsored R&D programs. While much of this R&D is directed at novel concepts and potential breakthrough technologies, there are also substantial efforts to improve CO₂ capture technologies already in use. In this paper, we focus on amine-based CO₂ capture systems for power plants and other combustion-based applications. The current performance and cost of such systems have been documented in several recent studies. In this paper we examine the potential for future cost reductions that may result from continued process development. We used the formal methods of expert elicitation to understand what experts in this field believe about possible improvements in some of the key underlying parameters that govern the performance and cost of this technology. A dozen leading experts from North America, Europe and Asia participated in this study, providing their probabilistic judgments via a detailed questionnaire coupled with individual interviews. Judgments about detailed technical parameters were then used in an integrated power plant modeling framework (IECM-CS) developed for USDOE to evaluate the performance and costs of alternative carbon capture and sequestration technologies for fossil-fueled power plants. The experts’ responses have allowed us to build a picture of how the overall performance and cost of amine-based systems might improve over the next decade or two. Results show how much the cost of CO₂ capture could be reduced via targeted R&D in key areas.     

CO2 utilization options, Part I: An emission assessment framework

The utilization of CO₂ in various products and services must be carefully assessed in order to achieve reduced CO₂ emissions and simultaneously to add to the net economic benefit of society. In this paper, a framework for the assessment of CO₂ utilization options in the chemical industry is outlined in which the total CO₂ emission is estimated in four steps. First, the processes under study are surveyed to establish the consumption of different raw materials (reactants). Second, the CO₂ emission due to the content of fossil carbon in the reactants is determined, i.e. the material-related emission. Third, the CO₂ emission related to energy consumption in the studied processes is estimated, i.e. the direct energy-related emission. Fourth, the CO₂ emission related to energy consumption in the reactant production processes is estimated, i.e. the indirect energy-related emission.     

Potential options to reduce GHG emissions in Venezuela

This paper presents a summary of the technologies and practices that could be implemented in Venezuela in order to contribute to both climate change mitigation and national development efforts. The mitigation analysis concentrates on options to reduce CO₂ emissions generated from the energy sector and land-use change.

From the mitigation options analyzed for the energy sector it was determined that the most effective are those in the transportation sector (switching to larger capacity vehicles, reduced private vehicle share, and switching fuels for public transportation from gasoline to natural gas), both in terms of contribution to emissions reduction and costs. Regarding the options for industry, boilers conversion from liquids to natural gas shows negative cost, but to a considerably lower extent that for the transportation sector. Efficiency improvements of natural gas boilers, which presents close to zero cost, is more effective in reducing emissions than boiler conversion. Increase in hydro power generation is the alternative with the highest total cost but it is very effective in reducing emissions.

From the mitigation options analyzed for land-use change, it was established that the forest sector has a considerable potential for reducing CO₂ emissions through the adoption of sustainable forest practices, especially by slowing the rate of forest loss and degradation. Maintenance of already existing biomass in natural forests should be the first priority of forest measures to reduce the amount of carbon released to the atmosphere. Forest protection and management of native forest represent the two options with the highest carbon conservation potential and the lowest carbon unit cost. Expansion of the forest cover through the development of intensive forest plantations also presents a high potential to offset carbon emissions in Venezuela.

An analysis of the barriers to mitigation options implementation shows that in the energy sector, low energy prices represent the main barrier to any mitigation program. Another important limitation to mitigation strategies implementation is the lack of institutional capacity and legal instruments for developing the mitigation measures. In the forest sector the primary causes of forest clearing in the country are not related to forest activities, so the definition of feasible mitigation options will depend upon a good understanding of other economic sectors and how they account for land-use change. Land tenure, rural poverty, political interests, and weak implementation of land-use planning instruments and environmental laws are considered to be the key limitations to any effort dealing with forest conservation. Land tenure, economic factors, and lack of incentives represent some of the most important barriers to the development of forest plantations and agroforestry systems in the country.     

Potential GHG mitigation options for agriculture in China

China's agriculture accounts for about 5–15% of total national emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O). Land-use changes related to agriculture are not major contributors of greenhouse gas emissions in China.

Mitigation options are available that could result in significant decrease in CH₄ and N₂O emissions from agricultural systems, and are likely to increase crop and animal productivity. Implementation has the potential to decrease CH₄ emissions from rice paddies, ruminants, and animal waste by 4–40%. Improving the efficiency of plant utilization of fertilizer N could decrease N₂O emissions from agriculture by almost 20%. Analyses of several of the proposed options show positive economic as well as environmental benefits.