Application of a quantitative risk assessment method to emergency response planning

Transportation-related hazardous materials releases pose obvious hazards to the general public and response personnel. Statistical risk assessment techniques are valuable in quantifying these hazards and evaluating methods to reduce the risk. In this paper, we describe a quantitative risk assessment approach for hazardous materials transportation that has a strong emphasis on consequence modeling and employs considerable statistical data from past incidents. We illustrate application of this method to evaluating distances to which the public should be protected immediately following an accidental release of toxic materials that pose an inhalation hazard. While this paper focuses on emergency response aspects of the problem, the framework we describe has applications to societal risk estimation and routing optimization for a wide variety of hazardous materials.     

Railroad transportation of dangerous goods: Population exposure to airborne toxins

Hazardous materials are potentially harmful to people and environment due to their toxic ingredients. Although a significant portion of dangerous goods transportation is via railroads, prevailing studies on dangerous goods transport focus on highway shipments. We present an analytical framework that incorporates the differentiating features of trains, notably volume and nature of cargo, in the assessment of transport risk. We focus on hazardous materials that are airborne upon an accidental release into the environment. Each railcar is a potential source of release, and hence risk assessment of trains requires representation of multiple release sources in the model. We propose a risk approximation approach, which is not only effective but also robust with regards to the positioning of hazardous cargo in the train. We report on the use of the proposed approach for the assessment of population exposure associated with “Ultra-train” that passes through the city of Montreal everyday.     

Hazardous waste management problem: The case for incineration

We define the hazardous waste management problem as the combined decisions of selecting the disposal method, siting the disposal plants and deciding on the waste flow structure. The hazardous waste management problem has additional requirements depending on the selected disposal method. In this paper we focus on incineration, for which the main additional requirement is to satisfy the air pollution standards imposed by the governmental restrictions. We propose a cost-based mathematical model in which the satisfaction of air pollution standards is also incorporated. We used the Gaussian Plume equation in measuring the air pollution concentrations at population centers. A large-scale implementation of the proposed model within Turkey is provided.     

Fuzzy and simulation-based techniques for industrial safety and risk assessment

This paper characterizes the development of a hybrid computer-based tool supporting design for safety practices in industrial plant component specification and layout definition. The tool combines simulation and fuzzy logic techniques for the systematic risk assessment of specified design and layout configurations for plants dealing with hazardous materials. In the hybrid system architecture, the simulation module provides the historical experience for a priori hazard identification and ranking, accounting for the domino effects of possible accidental occurrences, while the fuzzy module provides the correlation matrices for concurrent hazard evaluation and overall risk assessment. In particular, the fuzzy module enables the quantitative assessment and comparison among alternative design solutions providing design guidelines, which can be further tested and verified through simulation.     

A fuzzy reasoning and fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process based approach to the process of railway risk information: A railway risk management system

Risk management is becoming increasingly important for railway companies in order to safeguard their passengers and employees while improving safety and reducing maintenance costs. However, in many circumstances, the application of probabilistic risk analysis tools may not give satisfactory results because the risk data are incomplete or there is a high level of uncertainty involved in the risk data. This article presents the development of a risk management system for railway risk analysis using fuzzy reasoning approach and fuzzy analytical hierarchy decision making process. In the system, fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA) is employed to estimate the risk level of each hazardous event in terms of failure frequency, consequence severity and consequence probability. This allows imprecision or approximate information in the risk analysis process. Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (fuzzy-AHP) technique is then incorporated into the risk model to use its advantage in determining the relative importance of the risk contributions so that the risk assessment can be progressed from hazardous event level to hazard group level and finally to railway system level. This risk assessment system can evaluate both qualitative and quantitative risk data and information associated with a railway system effectively and efficiently, which will provide railway risk analysts, managers and engineers with a method and tool to improve their safety management of railway systems and set safety standards. A case study on risk assessment of shunting at Hammersmith depot is used to illustrate the application of the proposed risk assessment system.     

Autonomous hazardous waste drum inspection vehicle

Hundreds of thousands of hazardous, radioactive, and mixed waste drums are being stored throughout the world, and the anticipated decommissioning of facilities will generate many more drums. Currently, in compliance with federal regulations, waste storage facilities at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites are inspected manually for degradation and to verify inventories. An Intelligent Mobile Sensing System (IMSS) has been developed for the automated inspection of radioactive and hazardous waste storage containers in warehouse facilities at DOE sites. The IMSS will reduce the risk of exposure to personnel and create accurate, high-quality inspection reports to ensure regulatory compliance. The IMSS includes an autonomous robotic device with enhanced intelligence and maneuverability, capable of conducting routine multisensor inspection of stored waste drums     

Investigating uncertainty and sensitivity in integrated,multimedia environmental models: tools for FRAMES-3MRA

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems – Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRA modeling system includes a set of 17 science modules that collectively simulate release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk associated with hazardous contaminants disposed of in land-based waste management units (WMU). The 3MRA model encompasses 966 multi-dimensional input variables, over 185 of which are explicitly stochastic. Design of SuperMUSE, a 215 GHz PC-based, Windows-based Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is described. Developed for 3MRA and extendable to other computer models, an accompanying platform-independent, Java-based parallel processing software toolset is also discussed. For 3MRA, comparison of stand-alone PC versus SuperMUSE simulation executions showed a parallel computing overhead of only 0.57 seconds/simulation, a relative cost increase of 0.7% over average model runtime. Parallel computing software tools represent a critical aspect of exploiting the capabilities of such modeling systems. The Java toolset developed here readily handled machine and job management tasks over the Windows cluster, and is currently capable of completing over 3 million 3MRA model simulations per month on SuperMUSE. Preliminary work is reported for an example uncertainty analysis of Benzene disposal that describes the relative importance of various exposure pathways in driving risk levels for ecological receptors and human health. Incorporating landfills, waste piles, aerated tanks, surface impoundments, and land application units, the site-based data used in the analysis included 201 facilities across the United States representing 419 site-WMU combinations.     

The Revised Strain Index: an improved upper extremity exposure assessment model

Abstract

The Revised Strain Index (RSI) is a distal upper extremity (DUE) physical exposure assessment model based on: intensity of exertion, frequency of exertion, duration per exertion, hand/wrist posture and duration of task per day. The RSI improves upon the 1995 Strain Index (SI) by using continuous rather than categorical multipliers, and replacing duty cycle with duration per exertion. In a simulation of 13,944 tasks, the RSI and 1995 SI showed good agreement in risk predictions for 1995 SI scores ≤3 (safe) and >13.5 (hazardous). For tasks with 1995 SI scores of >3 and ≤13.5, the two models showed marked disagreement, with the RSI providing much greater discriminations between ‘safe’ and ‘hazardous’ tasks for various combinations of force, repetition and duty cycle. We believe the RSI is a substantially improved model that will be useful for DUE task analysis, intervention and design.

Practitioner Summary: RSI is a substantial improvement over the 1995 SI. It should be a valuable tool for designing and analysing tasks to determine risk of musculoskeletal injuries. RSI is applicable to a wide variety of tasks including very low force and very high repetition tasks such as keyboard use.     

Management of personal safety risk for lever operation in mechanical railway signal boxes

Despite increased implementation of computer control systems in managing and regulating rail networks, mechanical signal boxes using lever operation will be in place for years to come. A rolling risk assessment programme identified a number of levers in mechanical signal boxes within the UK rail network which potentially presented unacceptable personal safety risk to signallers. These levers operate both points and signals and the risk is primarily the weights which have to be moved when pulling and pushing the levers. Operating difficulties are often compounded by the design and condition of lever frames, the linkages to the points/signals, maintenance regimes, the workspace and the postures and strategies adopted by signallers. Lever weights were measured as from 15 kg to 180 kg at over 160 boxes, using a specially designed and constructed device. Taken together with examination of injury and sickness absence data, interviews and field observations, and biomechanical computer modelling, the measurement programme confirmed the potential risks. A risk management programme has been implemented, comprising lever weight measurement, training of operations staff, a structured maintenance regime and renewal or redesign for boxes/levers where, after maintenance, a criterion weight level is still exceeded. For a feasible management programme, the first alert (or 1st action) value for further assessment is 55 kg, a second action level requiring specified maintenance is 80–99 kg, and a third action level requiring the lever to be signed out of use is 100 kg.     

Risk assessment of cheese processing tasks using the Strain Index and OCRA Checklist

The purpose of this study was to conduct and compare two ergonomic risk assessment methods often used in occupational health research and practice: the Strain Index (SI) and Occupational Repetitive Actions (OCRA) Checklist. Seven raters used the SI and OCRA Checklist to assess task-level physical exposures to the upper extremity of workers performing 21 cheese-manufacturing tasks. Of the total task exposures assessed with both methods, nearly half (49.1%) were classified as hazardous using the OCRA Checklist while 60.2% were classified as hazardous using the SI. Although the underlying injury risk characterization constructs of the SI and OCRA Checklist differ, the results indicated that the SI and OCRA Checklist often classified job tasks into similar risk categories. The differences in risk classifications determined by the SI and OCRA Checklist for job tasks were likely related to the definition of variables measured by these assessment methods as well as the complexity of tasks evaluated. By design, the SI is specific to the distal upper extremity while the OCRA Checklist accounts for the entire upper extremity including the shoulder. When conducting risk assessments of industrial work tasks, the choice of analysis tools should be based on the purpose of the assessment and the complexity of task functions. Both the SI and OCRA Checklist yield risk assessment ratings that are similar for cheese processing tasks.     

Solving the hazmat transport network design problem

In this paper, we consider the problem of network design for hazardous material transportation where the government designates a network, and the carriers choose the routes on the network. We model the problem as a bilevel network flow formulation and analyze the bilevel design problem by comparing it to three other decision scenarios. The bilevel model is difficult to solve and may be ill-posed. We propose a heuristic solution method that always finds a stable solution. The heuristic exploits the network flow structure at both levels to overcome the difficulty and instability of the bilevel integer programming model. Testing on real data shows that the linearization of the bilevel model fails to find stable solutions and that the heuristic finds lower risk networks in less time. Further testing on random instances shows that the heuristically designed networks achieve significant risk reduction over single-level models. The risk is very close to the least risk possible. However, this reduction in risk comes with a significant increase in cost. We extend the bilevel model to account for the cost/risk trade-off by including cost in the first-level objective. The biobjective–bilevel model is a rich decision-support tool that allows for the generation of many good solutions to the design problem.     

Assessing pollution risks to water supply intakes using geographical information systems (GIS)

The process of pollution risk assessment requires the assimilation of data that are spatially variable in nature, making geographical information systems (GIS) an ideal tool for such assessments. Over half of Britain's drinking water is obtained from surface water abstractions, many of which are situated in upland areas. In order to optimise the quality of abstracted waters it is important to assess the possible risks of pollution upstream from the point of abstraction. This paper describes the use of the PC-based WINGS™ and MapInfo Professional™ geographical information systems in the evolution of a risk assessment methodology to assess catchment risk. The work illustrates how such technology can assist in environmental decision-making to optimise the quality of drinking water supplies and enhance treatment efficiencies. Examples are given showing how raster and vector-based data can be used within a GIS framework to produce maps indicating areas of potential hazard to water quality, and coupled with existing models to predict and quantify risk frequency and impact. GIS techniques are further utilised in the formulation of a raw water monitoring programme to assist in intake operation and land-use planning in the catchment. The availability of suitable digital data was found to be variable, and some problems encountered in their integration and implementation within the system framework were resolved. Comment is given on the suitability and relative performance of the two software packages in the assessment of catchment risk. The work was carried out on a medium specification desktop PC, and therefore has the potential to be utilised across the intranet of a large utility company.     

Workshop-based methodology to understand the risks in grain export inspection and certification

Much of the human factors contribution in risk assessment and risk management has been focused on systems or product safety; the profession has a much smaller research base regarding risks to do with regulation, certification and public policy, for example. This paper discusses an explicitly human factors contribution to understanding and managing risk for the inspection and export certification of grain and plant products in Australia. Training and awareness workshops, incorporating elements of focus groups, were run for 12 groups of staff and managers from the government department concerned. As well as training in risk management the workshops were used to come to an understanding of the work of the inspectors and other staff, to identify the sources of risk to the successful completion of their work and to develop the basis for a risk assessment framework and tool. The paper is methodological in focus and describes the development and running of the workshops and explains how a human factors oriented risk register was developed on the basis of identification of potential threats and errors in the system. Whilst the contribution of ergonomics is increasingly important as regards safety risk assessment, professionals have been less active as regards business, public policy and even engineering risk. This paper describes an approach within which a new domain was studied and the risks of all kinds identified, preparatory to development of a risk assessment tool.     

基于Silverlight的危废车辆实时监控系统

为了满足危险废物全过程管理的要求,提出了建设"危废车辆实时监控系统"的设计方案,详细阐述了基于Silver-light技术的原型系统的整体框架、功能设计以及关键功能模块的具体实现。试运行结果表明,系统实现了对危险废物运输车辆的实时监控和可视化管理,能够有效弥补危险废物全过程管理的薄弱环节,降低危险废物运输过程中安全事故的发生。采用Silverlight技术开发的系统,具有界面元素更加丰富、增强用户体验、更好的用户友好性和交互性的特点。     

A new model for the hazardous waste location-routing problem

Hazardous waste management involves the collection, transportation, treatment and disposal of hazardous wastes. In this paper a new multiobjective location-routing model is proposed. Our model also includes some constraints, which were observed in the literature but were not incorporated into previous models. The aim of the proposed model is to answer the following questions: where to open treatment centers and with which technologies, where to open disposal centers, how to route different types of hazardous waste to which of the compatible treatment technologies, and how to route waste residues to disposal centers. The model has the objective of minimizing the total cost and the transportation risk. A large-scale implementation of the model in the Central Anatolian region of Turkey is presented.     

Comparative risk assessment primer

Comparative risk assessment (CRA) is both an analytical process and a methodology for prioritizing environmental problems. It is a useful tool for managers and planners at all levels of government. A personal computer (PC) DOS-based Comparative Risk Assessment Primer has been developed to train and assist those involved in environmental policy formation, and to serve as a detailed information source for persons interested in environmental risk and risk assessment. The primer provides: definitions of key terms; an overview of risk and risk assessment; a breakdown of the CRA methodology; an overview of risk management; summaries of 36 CRA projects; glossary; bibliography; and a listing of environmental information contacts. It is an interactive software program that incorporates text, line drawings and digitized imagery. Supplemental information accessible through hypertext links imbedded in the text passages and on select graphics provides on-line help and more detailed information for interested users.     

Improving IT effectiveness through software process assessment

This paper provides some answers to the frequently asked question: what proof is there that process management gives measurable benefit in practice? We report the results of an improvement programme that is helping to improve the effectiveness of Scotland's IT community. This programme is currently operating in over 20 organizations and uses software process assessment as a key element. The majority of organizations have been on the programme for over a year and we have found that benefits can be obtained as early as six months from the outset of an assessment-based improvement programme. Using the experience of working with these organizations, we discuss how to set up an improvement programme and define the roles, responsibilities and critical factors that we have found successful.     

From fuzzy databases to an intelligent manual using fril

This paper describes an Intelligent Manual written in Fril which can act as an interface to documentation, software, and the conceptual framework of a technical study. The Intelligent Manual can also act as an assistant to an engineer involved in a technical investigation drawing on previous work. Methods of dealing with the uncertainties in data and inference are described, and a demonstration system is outlined covering a report on the performance assessment of a hazardous waste repository. The methods used in the Intelligent Manual can be applied to any technical documentation.     

Neural network for predicting the performance of credit card accounts

This paper reports the interim results of an experimental project using neural networks as a decision support tool for credit card risk assessment within a major bank. Two prototype neural network systems have been developed: one which emulates the decisions of the current risk assessment system, and another which attempts to predict the performance of credit card accounts based on the accounts historical data. This paper focuses on the development of the neural network model for credit card account performance prediction. The study has shown that such a tool can help in discovering the potential problems with credit card applicants at the very early stage of the credit account life cycle.     

Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool

Applying wildfire risk assessment models can inform investments in loss mitigation and landscape restoration, and can be used to monitor spatiotemporal trends in risk. Assessing wildfire risk entails the integration of fire modeling outputs, maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs), characterization of fire effects, and articulation of relative importance across HVRAs. Quantifying and geo-processing wildfire risk can be a complex and time-intensive task, often requiring expertise in geospatial analysis. Researchers and land managers alike would benefit from a standardized and streamlined ability to estimate wildfire risk. In this paper we present the development and application of a geospatial wildfire risk calculation tool, FireNVC. We describe the major components of the tool and how they align with a geospatial wildfire risk assessment framework, detail a recent application of the tool to inform federal wildfire management and planning, and offer suggestions for future improvements and uses of the tool.