美国奥巴马政府新能源战略及其特点

近20年来,世界石油产量增长缓慢,难以满足全球对液体燃料需求的快速增长,石油安全问题凸显。美国作为世界上能源消费量最大的国家,正积极寻求能源安全的新途径。奥巴马上台后推出了新能源战略,其发展重点落在了清洁替代能源和新能源上,期望通过能源产业拉动美国新一轮的经济发展。本文将奥巴马能源战略概括为:增加国内石油产量、发展替代清洁能源、改善交通系统、节约能源和发展新能源等五个方面,并总结出三大特点:一是美国正在逐步实现"能源独立";二是美国将"能源武器"纳入能源外交中;三是绿色能源将成为美国经济的主力引擎。此外,本文还分析了奥巴马政府新能源战略在实施过程中可能存在五大问题。     

水资源对“三西”地区发展煤基液体燃料的制约研究

"三西"地区(山西、陕西北部、内蒙西部)是我国煤炭资源最为丰富的地区,近几年来,为促进地方经济发展、延长煤炭产业链,该地区对发展煤基液体燃料兴趣浓厚,然而我国以煤制油为代表的煤基液体燃料产业目前存在较大的不确定性,水资源是影响富煤地区发展煤基液体燃料的根本因素。本文分析预测了未来"三西"地区的水资源可供量大小,进而探讨了该地区的煤基液体燃料的发展空间。研究数据表明,长远看由于水资源的约束,该地区尽管煤炭资源丰富,也不宜发展高耗水的煤基液体燃料产业。     

试论石油安全预警法律机制的构建

经济保持高速增长的现代社会，越来越离不开对能源消费的依赖。中国在经济高速发展的同时，对于各种能源的需求增长迅速，尤其是石油能源由原来的基本自给，转向于依赖进口。能源安全是一个国家能源的生产、供应能否满足经济发展和社会生活需要，能否保持社会稳定，关乎民众生产、生活延续的重要问题。石油作为现代能源体系中最重要的能源，被称作“工业的血液”，石油安全是能源安全的重中之重，必须引起足够的重视。     

BP世界能源统计2014年评论

2013年全球主要能源消费增长了2.3%,低于过去十年2.5%的平均增速。与全球平均水平比较,非经合组织成员国的能源消费增长速度放慢,而经合组织成员国的能源消费增长速度加快;即便如此,新兴经济体在全球能源需求中仍占主导地位,2013年新兴经济体的能源需求增长占80%。石油仍是全球主导性燃料,占全球能源消费的32.9%,但石油的市场份额仍连续14年出现下滑,其目前市场份额是自1965年以来的最低值。全球天然气产量增长了1.1%;全球核能发电量增长了0.9%,是自2010年以来第一次增长;全球煤炭消费量增长了3%,中国和印度占了全球煤炭消费量增长的88%;全球水力发电量增长了2.9%,以中国和印度为首的亚太地区占了全球78%的增长量。     

生物质应用于制液体和气体燃料而不是用于发电

我国能源结构从长期看仍将以煤为主,缺油少气。从我国能源结构来讲,生物质利用的最好方式不是发电．因生物质可以生产液体和气体燃料,而风能、太阳能、水能却只能发电。我国秸杆综合利用取得明显成效．在农业和畜牧业的利用领域还可能进一步拓宽,作为燃料利用的量还可能进一步缩减。从我国还在进行的第一次能源大转换来看,我国生物质使用量已大大减少,但还有相当的数量。要减少作为能源使用的生物质传统利用量,把它用于饲料、肥料和工业原料等还有发展前景的用途。在一次能源消费以化石能源为主的时期,中国存在液体燃料和气体燃料短缺的问题,以后进入第三次能源转换时期,新能源和可再生能源替代化石能源之后,液体燃料和气体燃料短缺的问题将会更加突出。因此,生物质应用于生产液体燃料和气体燃料,而不是用于发电。而且生物质发电厂投资高、燃料成本不断上涨,使发电成本高＋生物质发电将长期缺乏竞争力。我国发展生物质液体燃料已具备一定的条件．前几年中石油、中石化和中海油已开始种植可提炼生物液体燃料的能源林。我国非粮生物质液体燃料生产基地正在积极建设之中。我国发展生物质气体燃料也具有一定优势,在沼气、气化和城镇有机废物处理方面都积累了一定的经验。总之生物质生产液体燃料和气体燃料是一种既适应我国当前、又适应未来能源需求的有效措施。     

福建电力在终端能源消费中比重超过20%

福建省近年来电力和石油的消费增长加快 ,而终端能源消费中煤炭增长较慢 ,至 1999年 ,终端能源消费中 ,煤炭消费比重已下降到 5 0 %以下 ,为 4 6 .2 % ,石油消费比重为2 5 .6 % ,电力消费比重为 2 1.6 % ,其他能源消费仅占 6 .7%。终端能源优质化取得了明显的效果。预计到 2 0 0 5年终端能源消费中电力比重可到 2 5 .7%。福建省电力在终端能源中的比重比全国平均数约高出一倍。福建省终端能源消费的主要品种是煤炭、电力和石油 ,其他能源所占比重很低。从 1995～ 1999年终端能源消费情况分析 ,终端能源消费总量从 15 79万t标煤增长到 1874万…     

我国经济发展与能源消费关系实证研究

根据自然资源消费生命周期理论、产业结构多元化指数和能源消费结构多元化指数,本文研究了中国能源消费与经济发展变化趋势,分析了中国能源消费和经济发展之间的相互关系。主要结论包括:(1)1953～1990年期间,能源消费和经济增长变化呈现正相关关系,能源是驱动经济发展的主要因素;1990年后,经济的发展不仅是能源驱动,而且是能源和其他驱动因素共同作用的结果;(2)我国能源、煤炭、石油消费强度变化趋势都呈现倒“U”字型规律;1958～1975年期间,能源消费的强度变化和GDP的产出呈现不对称性;(3)一次能源消费增长对我国产业结构的变化影响非常显著;(4)不同发展阶段,能源消费结构的变化对能源消费强度变化影响不同。     

经济和能源地缘格局变化及中美战略对策

本世纪头10年世界经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移,转向东亚—南亚弧形地带,其中中国和印度成为领跑者,这一趋势将至少持续到本世纪30年代。中国和印度占世界GDP的份额分别从2000年的3.72%和1.49%上升到2010年的9.34%和2.44%。2000～2010年间世界能源消费总量年均增长率为2.67%,而中国和印度则分别为11.54%和5.18%。2001～2010年间,北美、日本的石油进口量呈下降趋势,欧洲呈微弱增长态势;而同期中国石油进口量年均增长率达16.29%,印度2000～2009年间石油进口量年均增长率为6.32%。2000～2010年间世界煤炭消费量年均增长率为4.84%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的30%;而中国10年间煤炭消费量的年均增长率为13.21%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的70.3%。中国能源消费总量增长过快、能源构成不合理的问题相当突出,必须加大对能源消费总量的控制,大力调整能源结构,坚决扭转煤炭占能源构成比例持续升高的局面。与经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移相应的是中美两国战略思维的变化。美国战略重点东移、"重返亚洲"的目的是遏制中国,这不过是冷战时期围堵的老思维;但美国同时又必须与中国合作,双方的相互渗透、相互依存已经达到相当的程度。而中国必须看到国内外经济形势的变化,形成新的战略思维,改变发展方式,坚定不移地以改革促稳定,以结构调整保发展。     

中国可再生能源开发利用现状及趋势

一、现状1997年,中国的能源消费量达到14．2亿tce,成为继美国的第二大能源消费国。在过去的15年中,中国能源消费年增长率为5～6％,对应的GDP年增长率10％左右。中国能源消费主要是煤炭,占商品能源的76％,其次是油16％,水电5％,天然气2％。随着国民经济的增长,预计到2020年,煤炭消费量将增长三倍,石油和天然气消费量也将有较大增长。化石燃料使用过程中产生严重的大气污染,同时也给水和土壤带来污染。大气污染也是中国南方酸雨形成的主要原因,同时也对森林、农作物和水产业造成严重损害。以化石燃料为主的能源消费结构也导致…     

全球能源格局变化及对中国能源安全的挑战

进入21世纪以来,拉美和非洲的石油储产量大幅增长,石油供应向多极化方向发展,石油消费重心正在转向产油国和发展中国家.2000～2011年全球天然气产量增长了35.7％,北美和欧洲天然气探明储量增长居全球领先水平,天然气消费普遍增长.发达国家仍然是能源投资的主体,但同时发展中国家的能源投资也快速增长,发展中国家对煤炭和石油的投资比例均高于发达国家,而发达国家对天然气和电力等清洁能源的投资比例超过了发展中国家.欧美引领着新能源的发展,但由于中国和印度的拉动,亚洲地区有可能成为全球新能源中心.气候变化问题使能源安全的内涵扩展到对环境的影响.此外,中东的石油和天然气消费增速位居全球第一,未来可能会影响对其他地区的出口.世界能源格局的变化使中国能源安全面临一系列新的挑战.首先,作为全球最大的能源消费国,维护全球能源安全是中国的不二选择;其次,维护海外投资利益已成为中国构建新的国际关系的重要考量;第三,需要重新考虑与发达国家和发展中国家的能源外交;另外,如何在国际舞台上发挥主导作用、以何种政治姿态影响和参与全球能源治理,以及如何与周边国家及欧美等国解决能源争端、领土争端和贸易争端,是我国面临的又一挑战.中国要注重能源大国在能源安全中的作用,有区别地与具有不同能源安全利益诉求的国家开展能源外交,在全球能源对话中要积极倡导能源贸易“去政治化”,提出既有利于世界能源安全又有利于我国能源安全的新理念.     

Transportation: meeting the dual challenges of achieving energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions

As the population and economy continue to grow globally, demand for energy will continue to grow. The transportation sector relies solely on petroleum for its energy supply. The United States and China are the top two oil-importing countries. A major issue both countries face and are addressing is energy insecurity as a result of the demand for liquid fuels. Improvements in the energy efficiency of vehicles and the substitution of petroleum fuels with alternative fuels can help contain growth in the demand for transportation oil. Although most alternative transportation fuels — when applied to advanced vehicle technologies — can substantially reduce greenhouse emissions, coal-based liquid fuels may increase greenhouse gas emissions by twice as much as gasoline. Such technologies as carbon capture and storage may need to be employed to manage the greenhouse gas emissions of coal-based fuels. At present, there is no ideal transportation fuel option to solve problems related to transportation energy and greenhouse gas emissions. To solve these problems, research and development efforts are needed for a variety of transportation fuel options and advanced vehicle technologies.     

Electric power requirement for large-scale production of hydrogen fuel for the world vehicle fleet

Replacement of fossil fuels by hydrogen in motor vehicles throughout the world is postulated to occur over the next 50 years as mass production of fuel-cell engines accelerates. For the estimated size of the world vehicle fleet by 2050, large-scale electrolysis of water may become the primary means to produce hydrogen in sufficient quantity. Unlike petroleum production, which is concentrated in only a few well-endowed countries in the world, electrolytic production of hydrogen can be carried out in all countries as an indigenous supply of fuel. However, each nation will require a significant increase in the rate of electric energy consumption and a concomitant increase in electric power generating facilities. A dynamic model was used to estimate the annual total electric energy requirement to sustain long-term growth of hydrogen fuel production in two time sequences. In the first sequence, from 2000 to 2010, when a fuel-cell engine industry is likely to expand rapidly, extrapolation of historic data on world population, vehicle, traffic, and energy statistics from official agencies provides the initial conditions in year 2010 for the second time sequence. In the second sequence, the model examines a range of growth scenarios to the year 2050, when a significant fraction of the total world vehicle fleet could be operated with hydrogen fuel. The model calculations show that even with improved energy consumption efficiency of electrolytic production facilities, the additional electric energy demand to sustain growth of hydrogen fuel production will require installation of significant additional electric power generating capacity throughout the world.     

Artificial neural network analysis of world green energy use

This paper focuses on the analysis of world green energy consumption through artificial neural networks (ANN). In addition, the consumption is also analyzed of world primary energy including fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. A feed-forward back-propagation ANN is used for training and learning processes by taking into consideration data from the literature of world energy consumption from 1965 to 2004. Also, an ANN approach for forecasting world green energy consumption to the year 2050 is presented, and the consumption equations for different energy sources are derived. The environmental aspects of green energy and fossil fuels are discussed in detail. The resulting ANN-based equation curve profiles verify that the available economic reserves of fossil fuel resources are limited, and become “depleted” in the near future. It is expected that world green energy consumption will reach almost 62.74 EJ by 2010, and be on average 32.29% of total energy use between 2005 and 2025. However, world green energy and natural gas consumption will continue increasing after 2050, while world oil and coal consumption are expected to remain relatively stable after 2025 and 2045, respectively. The ANN approach appears to be a suitable method for forecasting energy consumption data, should be utilized in efforts to model world energy consumption.     

Prospects of biodiesel from Jatropha in India: A review

The increasing industrialization and modernization of the world has to a steep rise for the demand of petroleum products. Economic development in developing countries has led to huge increase in the energy demand. In India, the energy demand is increasing at a rate of 6.5% per annum. The crude oil demand of the country is met by import of about 80%. Thus the energy security has become a key issue for the nation as a whole. Petroleum-based fuels are limited. The finite reserves are highly concentrated in certain regions of the world. Therefore, those countries not having these reserves are facing foreign exchange crises, mainly due to the import of crude oil. Hence it is necessary to look forward for alternative fuels, which can be produced from feedstocks available within the country.Biodiesel, an ecofriendly and renewable fuel substitute for diesel has been getting the attention of researchers/scientists of all over the world. The R & D has indicated that up to B20, there is no need of modification and little work is available related to suitability and sustainability of biodiesel production from Jatropha as non-edible oil sources. In addition, the use of vegetable oil as fuel is less polluting than petroleum fuels. The basic problem with biodiesel is that it is more prone to oxidation resulting in the increase in viscosity of biodiesel with respect to time which in turn leads to piston sticking, gum formation and fuel atomization problems.The report is an attempt to present the prevailing fossil fuel scenario with respect to petroleum diesel, fuel properties of biodiesel resources for biodiesel production, processes for its production, purification, etc. Lastly, an introduction of stability of biodiesel will also be presented.     

世界能源消费形势刍议

能源是现代社会文明和经济发展的生命线,经济愈发展,社会愈进步,对能源的依赖程度也愈高。各能源机构都预测,在本世纪中叶以前,世界能源总需求仍会进一步增长,世界人口的增长亦将促进能源需求的增长。今后经济和能源需求的增长将主要集中在发展中国家,从地区来看,将主要来自亚洲和大洋洲发展中国家,其次是中东和北非以及拉丁美洲。本世纪以来,在一次能耗消费构成中,煤炭和天然气所占比例上升,石油和一次电力(主要是核能)所占比例有所下降。目前水电和核能仍是最大的非化石能源,两者合计占一次能源消费比例约为12%。尽管风能、太阳能、生物质能等来势迅猛,但毕竟基数很小,在本世纪前半叶化石能源仍将居主导地位。由于煤层气、页岩气勘探开发技术日趋成熟,使得天然气(包括非常规天然气)的储量和产量迅速增长。2035年天然气可能占到世界能源消费总量的25%,从而成为超过煤炭、仅次于石油的第二大能源。由于非常规原油储量和产量的迅速增长,弥补了常规原油储量和产量的下滑。石油替代燃料的研究受到普遍重视,目前研究中的四大石油替代燃料领域有:气体燃料、合成燃料、醇醚类燃料和生物质燃料,其中发展最快而又比较普遍的是生物燃料。从长远看生物燃料会有较大发展空间,但未来20~30年内很难实现大规模替代,几十年内石油仍然是生产运输燃料的主要原料。     

Global energy production and use to the year 2050

We have explored the long-term global evolution of energy production and consumption, in conjunction with a program to investigate the global carbon dioxide issue. This paper presents energy findings which have grown out of that work. While our initial motivation to look at energy was environmental, that look has revealed many energy surprises such as a stable world oil price to the year 2000, which delays the introduction of backstop technologies until the next century, a major shift toward shale oil and coal to produce liquid fuels after 2025, and a heavy substitution of conservation and small-scale solar energy for commercial fuels, but only a minor penetration of centralized solar electric power generation. The base case is a conditional projection. We also consider some of the major factors which could result in alternative evolutionary paths of the global energy system.     

我国生物质能源现代化应用前景展望(一)——生物质资源和供给

生物质能除了可以在改善世界一次能源结构、降低化石能源需求量方面做出重要贡献以外,还可在减少温室气体排放、保障能源供应安全、改善贸易平衡、促进农村发展和改进城市废弃物处理方式等方面发挥作用。目前全球每年一次能源消费总量为500EJ,生物质资源的年用量约占一次能源消费总量的10%左右,主要被用于传统的民用燃料和生产第一代生物燃料。第二代生物燃料技术预计将于2020年前后在一些国家实现工业化生产。IEA预测,2050年世界一次能源需求量为670EJ,生物质资源将占一次能源需求总量的20%左右。各方学者预测的2050年全球生物质资源量最低值基本在200~400EJ之间,最高值在400~1500EJ之间。中国的生物燃料产业尚处于起步阶段,不过应该说取得了良好的开端。我国生物质资源相对较少,且分布不均,发展生物质能产品需要依靠能源作物。只有通过合理开发、有效利用,才能在不与粮食和食用油争夺土地的前提下,在一定程度上提供生物运输燃料和生物质发电供热所需的原料,生物质能-农产品和/或生物质能-林产品联合生产系统应成为主要发展方向。美国生物燃料产业的发展模式对我国具有一定的借鉴意义。生物质最有效的利用方式是生产运输燃料,从长远来看,生物燃料可以与石油燃料竞争,尤其是喷气燃料和汽油更具替代优势,但受到生物质资源供应量的制约。     

A review on coal‐to‐liquid fuels and its coal consumption

Continued reliance on oil is unsustainable and this has resulted in interest in alternative fuels. Coal‐to‐liquids (CTL) can supply liquid fuels and have been successfully used in several cases, particularly in South Africa. This article reviews CTL theory and technology. Understanding the fundamental aspects of coal liquefaction technologies is vital for planning and policy‐making, as future CTL systems will be integrated in a much larger global energy and fuel utilization system. Conversion ratios for CTL are generally estimated to be between 1 and 2 barrels/ton coal. This puts a strict limitation on future CTL capacity imposed by future coal production volumes, regardless of other factors such as economics, emissions or environmental concerns. Assuming that 10% of world coal production can be diverted to CTL, the contribution to liquid fuel supply will be limited to only a few mega barrels per day. This prevents CTL from becoming a viable mitigation plan for liquid fuel shortage on a global scale. However, it is still possible for individual nations to derive significant shares of their fuel supply from CTL, but those nations must also have access to equally significant coal production capacities. It is unrealistic to claim that CTL provides a feasible solution to liquid fuels shortages created by peak oil. For the most part, it can only be a minor contributor and must be combined with other strategies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Promising sources of energy in the near future

Fossil fuels, renewable, nuclear, or fissile fuels are the main energy sources. Fossil fuels, especially oil, are still the most popular source of energy in the world. Importance of clean and renewable energy sources (RESs) has increased significantly in recent years. The authors analyze current and future energy situation in the world. The futuristic concept of engine fuel has become the promising fuel resource which can compete with oil. The paper analyzes and discusses also the alternative energy sources in the future.