A network security situation prediction model based on wavelet neural network with optimized parameters

The security incidents ion networks are sudden and uncertain, it is very hard to precisely predict the network security situation by traditional methods. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the network security situation, we build a network security situation prediction model based on Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) with optimized parameters by the Improved Niche Genetic Algorithm (INGA). The proposed model adopts WNN which has strong nonlinear ability and fault-tolerance performance. Also, the parameters for WNN are optimized through the adaptive genetic algorithm (GA) so that WNN searches more effectively. Considering the problem that the adaptive GA converges slowly and easily turns to the premature problem, we introduce a novel niche technology with a dynamic fuzzy clustering and elimination mechanism to solve the premature convergence of the GA. Our final simulation results show that the proposed INGA-WNN prediction model is more reliable and effective, and it achieves faster convergence-speed and higher prediction accuracy than the Genetic Algorithm-Wavelet Neural Network (GA-WNN), Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation Neural Network (GA-BPNN) and WNN.     

蝙蝠算法优化RVM的校园网络安全研究

传统的应对网络威胁的手段是根据所发生的攻击针对性的提供补救措施,但是这种方式具有较强的滞后性,已难以满足现在快节奏的网络运行环境。如何提供一种对网络安全状况的量化指标,根据对网络安全的走势进行预测已经成为了如今的研究热点。文中针对网络安全的量化评估与预测问题,首先,提出了一种基于层次化评估模型的方法,实现了对网络安全态势的量化手段,将其从定性分析上升到了定量分析;其次,提出了一种基于相关向量机的网络安全态势预测模型,并通过蝙蝠算法提升了该模型的运行效率;最后,通过数据集的样本学习,验证了预测方法的有效性,该方法具有较高的精度和可靠性。     

Cloud security situation prediction method based on grey wolfoptimization and BP neural network

Aiming at the accuracy and error correction of cloud security situation prediction, a cloud security situation prediction method based on grey wolf optimization (GWO) and back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed.Firstly, the adaptive disturbance convergence factor is used to improve the GWO algorithm, so as to improve theconvergence speed and accuracy of the algorithm. The Chebyshev chaotic mapping is introduced into the positionupdate formula of GWO algorithm, which is used to select the features of the cloud security situation prediction dataand optimize the parameters of the BP neural network prediction model to minimize the prediction output error.Then, the initial weights and thresholds of BP neural network are modified by the improved GWO algorithm toincrease the learning efficiency and accuracy of BP neural network. Finally, the real data sets of Tencent cloudplatform are predicted. The simulation results show that the proposed method has lower mean square error (MSE)and mean absolute error (MAE) compared with BP neural network, BP neural network based on genetic algorithm(GA-BP), BP neural network based on particle swarm optimization (PSO-BP) and BP neural network based onGWO algorithm (GWO-BP). The proposed method has better stability, robustness and prediction accuracy.     

Network traffic prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion

Accurate prediction of network traffic is an important premise in network management and congestion control. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of network traffic, a prediction method based on wavelet transform and multiple models fusion is presented. Mallat wavelet transform algorithm is used to decompose and reconstruct the network traffic time series. The approximate and detailed components of the original network traffic can be obtained. The characteristics of approximate components and detail components are analyzed by Hurst exponent. Then, according to the different characteristics of the components, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) is chosen as the prediction model for the approximate component. Least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is used to predict detail component. Meanwhile, an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is proposed to optimize the parameters of the LSSVM model. Gauss‐Markov estimation algorithm is adapted to fuse the predicted values of multiple prediction models. The variance of fusion prediction error is smaller than that of single prediction model, and the prediction accuracy is improved. Two actual datasets of network traffic are studied. Compared with other state‐of‐the‐art models, the case study results indicate that the proposed prediction method has a better prediction effect.     

基于改进型鲸鱼优化算法和最小二乘支持向量机的炼钢终点预测模型研究

终点碳含量是决定钢质量的关键因素,是转炉炼钢过程中需要控制的核心变量之一.本文建立了一种基于莱维飞行的鲸鱼优化算法（Levy Whale Optimization Algorithm,LWOA）和最小二乘向量机（Least Squares Support Vector Machine,LSSVM）的钢水终点碳含量综合预测模型.通过莱维飞行代替了传统鲸鱼优化算法（Whale Optimization Algorithm,WOA）参数的随机选择,优化了鲸鱼算法中跳出局部最优的能力;借助改变鲸鱼算法的系数向量收敛方式明显提高了鲸鱼优化算法的泛化能力、预测精度和收敛速度.数据仿真结果表明,所提出的LWOA-LSSVM预测模型,不仅能够克服局部寻优获取全局最优解,而且具有快速的收敛速度和更高的预测精度,得出预测结果的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分比误差与遗传算法BP神经网络、遗传算法最小二乘支持向量机和传统鲸鱼算法最小二乘支持向量机相比均有着明显提高.同时,通过调整目标命中率和训练输入样本量验证了预测模型具有更好的鲁棒性.     

网络安全态势的云预测

针对现有网络安全态势预测算法存在的主观因素影响较大、预测结果与选取数据关联程度较高的情况,以云的网络安全态势预测规则挖掘算法为基础,提出了一个改进算法。该改进算法不仅拥有原挖掘算法无需对初始数据进行预先处理的优点,同时避免了预测规则与实际情况相孤立造成预测错误的情况,并通过实验验证了算法的可行性和有效性。基于云的网络安全态势预测改进算法,有效地提高了网络安全态势预测的准确性。     

基于混合方式的贝叶斯网络结构学习

基于最大主子图分解技术和遗传算法,提出了一种混合方式的贝叶斯网络结构学习算法。该算法首先根据领域知识和观察数据构造网络的无向独立图,并对其进行最大主子图分解,再利用遗传算法学习每个子图的结构,同时进行合并修正得到最优的贝叶斯网络结构。分解过程将一个学习大网络问题转化为小子图的学习问题,降低了搜索空间。仿真结果表明,新算法的学习效果与运行效率均有明显提高。     

基于优化神经网络算法的电离层foF2预测

为了提高基于反向传输（back propagation,BP）神经网络的电离层f_oF₂预测的精度,采用了一种改进粒子群优化神经网络的方法,对BP网络的初始权值进行优化,防止出现神经网络训练中的局部最优.通过比较基于粒子群优化的神经网络预测结果与遗传算法优化的神经网络预测结果,我们发现对于BP神经网络,两种方法都有很好的性能.此外,和电离层经验模型国际参考电离层模型（international reference ionosphere 2016,IRI2016）结果进行对比,结果表明,本文提出的自适应变异粒子群（adaptive mutation particle swarm optimization,AMPSO）优化神经网络能有效提高f_oF₂的预测精度,并在低纬地区有更好的预测效果.     

基于最小二乘支持向量机的短期负荷预测模型

支持向量机（SVM）是近年来发展起来的机器学习的新方法,它较好地解决了小样本、非线性、高维数、局部极小点等实际问题。研究了支持向量机的拓展算法——最小二乘支持向量机（LSSVM）,并将其应用于电力系统短期负荷时间序列预测。通过实例并与神经网络模型预测结果相比较表明,LSSVM模型的预测精度要明显高于神经网络模型,验证了LSS-VM模型可以很好地应用于短期负荷时间序列预测,并且具有较高的准确性与有效性,这为短期负荷预测提供了一个新的解决思路。     

基于改进宽度模型迁移学习的不同负载下滚动轴承状态快速分类方法

针对深度学习网络训练耗时以及不同负载下滚动轴承的源域数据和目标域数据分布差异较大的问题,该文提出一种基于改进宽度模型迁移学习的滚动轴承状态快速分类方法。该方法首先对不同负载下滚动轴承振动信号进行快速傅里叶变换,构建频域幅值序列数据集,并选取某种或某些负载数据集作为源域,其他负载数据集作为目标域;其次以循环扩展的方式建立宽度学习系统(BLS)的增强节点窗口,并在增强层引入Maxout激活函数构建改进的BLS网络,同时引入遗传算法优化网络节点结构,建立基于源域数据的预训练模型;最后将预训练模型的网络参数、特征层和增强层的权重参数迁移至目标域网络,并利用少量目标域样本微调网络建立状态分类模型。实验结果表明,所提方法平均训练时间为32.6 s,平均测试准确率为98.9%。对比其他方法,所提方法可以在更短的时间内建立分类模型并获得良好的分类准确率。