共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 109 毫秒
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阐述电力企业售电量预测的方法,电力企业售电量预测的特点,探讨季节比例模型、改进的BP网络模型、元模糊线性回归模型,以及时间序列分析、回归分析、神经网络、灰色预测的算法预测,通过案例展示这些方法在电力企业售电量预测中的应用。 相似文献
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随着网络用户规模的大幅度增加,网络用户使用计算机的水平参差不齐,导致网络安全事故频频发生,提升网络安全态势感知已经成为研究的重点。本文提出了一种基于RF-SVM的网络安全态势感知算法,该算法引入回归思想,在网络入侵感知过程,充分地参考历史网络攻击数据,预测未来网络数据流中潜在的威胁,实验证明该算法能够有效地提升网络安全感知的准确度,降低预测误差。 相似文献
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设计了由光源、气室、探测器和控制器等组成的非分散红外吸收系统,往气室内通入不同浓度的多组分气体(含有乙醇、二氧化碳和水蒸气),采用红外光谱仪进行光谱数据采集,得到多组分气体混合光谱图。根据数据集样本求解回归系数,建立了多元线性回归模型,并进行干扰修正以降低二氧化碳和水蒸气对乙醇浓度预测的影响。对建立的多元线性回归模型进行评价,结果表明:模型真实有效且具有良好的线性回归效果,可以用于预测气体浓度,乙醇、二氧化碳和水蒸气浓度预测误差均在可接受的范围之内,其中乙醇浓度预测误差最小,不超过2.0×10-4。通过干扰修正尽可能排除二氧化碳和水蒸气的干扰,能够较准确地预测乙醇浓度。 相似文献
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基于季节指数趋势法预测10086话务量 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
研究了季节指数趋势法预测10086月平均话务量,以某省10086的历史话务数据为基础进行预测,并对比分析了预测结果与实际话务量。 相似文献
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Intrusions into computer systems have caused many quality/reliability problems. Detecting intrusions is an important part of assuring the quality/reliability of computer systems by quickly detecting intrusions and associated quality/reliability problems in order to take corrective actions. In this paper, we present and compare two methods of forecasting normal activities in computer systems for intrusion detection. One forecasting method uses the average of long-term normal activities as the forecast. Another forecasting method uses the EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average) one-step-ahead forecast. We use a Markov chain model to learn and predict normal activities used in the EWMA forecasting method. A forecast of normal activities is used to detect a large deviation of the observed activities from the forecast as a possible intrusion into computer systems. A Chi square distance metric is used to measure the deviation of the observed activities from the forecast of normal activities. The two forecasting methods are tested on computer audit data of normal and intrusive activities for intrusion detection. The results indicate that the Chi square distance measure with the EWMA forecasting provides better performance in intrusion detection than that with the average-based forecasting method. 相似文献
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吴疌 《电信工程技术与标准化》2014,(3):20-22
移动数据流量预测对于运营商的业务发展和网络建设有重要的指导意义。本文介绍了ARIMA模型,并将其应用于移动数据流量的预测。实际结果表明ARIMA模型的预测精度比线性回归、局部拟合回归,神经网络模型都高,可作为移动数据流量的预测模型。 相似文献
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M. Figueiredo R. Ballini S. Soares M. Andrade F. Gomide 《IEEE transactions on systems, man and cybernetics. Part C, Applications and reviews》2004,34(3):293-301
A class of neurofuzzy networks and a constructive, competition-based learning procedure is introduced. Given a set of training data, the learning procedure automatically adjusts the input space portion to cover the whole space and finds membership functions parameters for each input variable. The network processes data following fuzzy reasoning principles and, due to its structure, it is dual to a rule-based fuzzy inference system. The neurofuzzy model is used to forecast seasonal streamflow, a key step to plan and operate hydroelectric power plants and to price energy. A database of average monthly inflows of three Brazilian hydroelectric plants located at different river basins was used as source of training and test data. The performance of the neurofuzzy network is compared with period regression, a standard approach used by the electric power industry to forecast streamflows. Comparisons with multilayer perceptron, radial basis network and adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system are also included. The results show that the neurofuzzy network provides better one-step-ahead streamflow forecasting, with forecasting errors significantly lower than the other approaches. 相似文献
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With the rapid growth of satellite traffic, the ability to forecast traffic loads becomes vital for improving data transmission efficiency and resource management in satellite networks. To precisely forecast the short-term traffic loads in satellite networks, a forecasting algorithm based on principal component analysis and a generalized regression neural network (PCA-GRNN) is proposed. The PCA-GRNN algorithm exploits the hidden regularity of satellite networks and fully considers both the temporal and spatial correlations of satellite traffic. Specifically, it selects optimal time series of spatio-temporally correlated historical traffic from satellites as forecasting inputs and applies principal component analysis to reduce the input dimensions while preserving the main features of the data. Then, a generalized regression neural network is utilized to perform the final short-term load forecasting based on the obtained principal components. The PCA-GRNN algorithm is evaluated based on real-world traffic traces, and the results show that the PCA-GRNN method achieves a higher forecasting accuracy, has a shorter training time and is more robust than other state-of-the-art algorithms, even for incomplete traffic datasets. Therefore, the PCA-GRNN algorithm can be regarded as a preferred solution for use in real-time traffic forecasting for realistic satellite networks. 相似文献
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计算机病毒的快速传播给计算机系统安全带来了严重威胁,数据挖掘技术可以在计算机病毒防御中发挥重要的作用。文中阐述了数据挖掘技术在计算机病毒防御中的应用,介绍了基于数据挖掘的计算机病毒检测方法、病毒特征分析方法及病毒分析方法,并分别从数据采集、数据处理、数据分析和应用建模4个方面讨论了数据挖掘技术在计算机病毒防御中的应用,最后探讨了数据挖掘技术的发展趋势。 相似文献
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天气预报,主要是借助卫星等现代化设备,实现对气象信息的检测,通过相关软件和模式的分析,实现对未来天气的预知、探测和发布,以满足人们对气象信息的需要。气象部门在进行天气预报探测过程中,根据计算机技术的运行特点和高效管理,全面运用计算机技术,有利于实现对天气预报信息的科学监测和管理,以推动天气预报技术的全面发展。本文对应用计算机加强天气预报信息管理的作用进行探讨,以实现对天气预报信息管理的全面认识,结合计算机的相关技术,制定合理的应用策略,以提高天气预报信息管理的准确性和科学性,进而促进天气预报技术的发展。 相似文献
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移动通信话务量作为一种时间序列,具有较强的非线性和随机性,而且易受节假日、旅游等客户行为及天气等其它因素的影响。尤其是话务量长期的发展变化,很难用传统的预测方法进行预测。根据移动通信话务量自身特点,采用复合模型,将话务量分为平稳期趋势分量、平稳期周期分量、节假日话务量,用综合评判的分段一元线性回归及模板匹配算法分别对趋势分量、周期分量和节假日话务进行建模。最后,开发了基于复合模型的智能化预测系统,在广东省某市试运行的结果表明:基于复合模型的预测方法比传统预测方法精度高。 相似文献
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区域物流需求预测的应用研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为了提高区域物流需求精度,综合考虑区域物流需求线性、周期性和非线性信息,提出了采用组合模型的预测方法.通过将各种单一预测模型看作代表不同信息的片段,通过BP神经网络对不同信息进行集成,充分利用各单项预测方法的有用信息,从而提高区域物流需求预测精度.通过上海市的物流需求数据对组合模型进行测试,实验结果表明,组合模型很好揭示了上海物流需求的变化规律,提高了物流需求的预测精度,为区域物流需求预测提供了一种新的思路和方法. 相似文献