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1.
分析了地质构造、煤的埋藏深度、煤的变质程度、煤与围岩的透气性等主要因素对芙蓉煤矿下水平开采煤与瓦斯突出的影响,通过对下水平B3+4煤层煤与瓦斯突出参数测试,应用区域预测方法分析了下水平开采B3+4煤层区域突出的可能性。  相似文献   

2.
针对煤与瓦斯突出存在诸多不确定影响因素的特点,在研究煤与瓦斯突出机理和集对分析理论的基础上,确定了突出区域预测指标,划分了突出危险等级和指标临界值,计算各突出危险等级的联系熵范围,从而构建了煤与瓦斯突出区域的联系熵预测方法.通过应用实例预测,计算结果与实际情况相吻合,证明了该预测方法的合理性和可行性,对煤矿实现煤与瓦斯突出区域预测具有一定的指导意义.  相似文献   

3.
基于灰靶决策模型的煤与瓦斯突出可能性评价   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
梁冰  秦冰  孙维吉 《煤炭学报》2011,36(12):1974-1978
基于灰色系统理论,建立多指标加权灰靶突出可能性决策模型,对矿井煤与瓦斯突出的可能性进行量化评价。根据10组煤与瓦斯突出危险区域测点数据与预测煤层突出危险性单项指标临界值的靶心距的大小,对矿井突出可能性大小进行评价,并进行了突出可能性等级划分。应用该模型对花宝沟煤矿煤与瓦斯突出的可能性进行评价,评价结果是靶心距距离较大,可能性小,不易发生突出,评价结果与实际情况一致。说明应用多指标加权灰靶突出可能性决策模型对矿井进行煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价是可行的。  相似文献   

4.
针对我国煤矿煤与瓦斯突出的现状,系统地分析了煤与瓦斯突出发生的八大主要规律。为满足矿井安全生产的需要,介绍了一套集地质测量、生产、技术、调度、通风、防突、监控等各实体部门的安全生产信息于一体的煤与瓦斯突出综合预警技术。研究认为:煤与瓦斯突出综合预警技术能相对准确地分析、预测、警报防突工作面所处的危险隐患与前方突出危险程度的发展趋势,有助于矿井煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测更加精确化、防突工作更有针对性。  相似文献   

5.
李海军  王忠奎 《现代矿业》2012,(10):128-130
煤与瓦斯突出是一种极其复杂的瓦斯地质动力现象,是多种因素综合作用的结果。针对遵义县李梓煤矿各种地质条件的特点,分析了各种地质条件下诱发煤与瓦斯突出的可能性,为该矿煤与瓦斯突出预测预报、综合防突措施、安全高效生产等提供了可靠的依据,促进了矿井安全高效生产和可持续发展。  相似文献   

6.
基于层次分析与模糊综合评判的突出危险程度预测   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
针对煤与瓦斯突出预测缺乏定量评价方法,将层次分析与模糊综合评判运用到煤与瓦斯突出危险程度预测中,使用层次分析法确定了煤与瓦斯突出各影响因素权重系数,运用模糊综合评判法建立了煤与瓦斯突出危险程度预测模型。最后,对某煤矿9煤层进行了煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测。结果表明,应用层次分析与模糊综合评判进行煤与瓦斯突出危险程度预测是可行的。  相似文献   

7.
针对现阶段煤与瓦斯突出预测技术难以实现时间和空间领域的全方位预测,预测结果准确率低、预测结果发布滞后且影响工作面正常采掘作业生产等技术缺陷,提出了一种利用工作面瓦斯涌出特征预测工作面前方煤与瓦斯突出危险情况的非接触式、连续预测方法。通过对煤矿监测数据结构特征进行综合分析,确定了瓦斯涌出特征突出预警系统的预警指标,建立了煤与瓦斯突出连续预测技术模型,并引入单项预测指标权重评判集,采用加权平均设计思路,构建形成了煤与瓦斯突出预警综合评判规则。在此基础上,采用C/S、B/S双架构系统开发模式,设计开发了瓦斯涌出特征突出预警系统平台。通过下峪口煤矿应用结果显示,该系统平台总体预警准确率达到了86%,且能够超前准确地预测工作面前方的煤与瓦斯突出危险情况,为突出矿井的正常掘进生产提供了安全保障。  相似文献   

8.
为了对煤与瓦斯突出进行预测,采用层次分析法研究了煤与瓦斯突出预测方法,分析了煤与瓦斯突出因素,对煤与瓦斯突出瓦斯压力和瓦斯含量临界值进行了确定。建立了煤与瓦斯突出的相关指标的层次分析模型。研究得出,某矿5号煤层的煤层瓦斯压力指标临界值为0.68 MPa,5号煤层瓦斯含量指标临界值为10.8 m3/t;影响煤与瓦斯突出的指标依次为煤的破坏类型和坚固性系数、顶板强度和厚度、煤层厚度、瓦斯压力、地质构造、瓦斯含量和埋深。研究为类似条件下煤与瓦斯突出预测提供了技术支持。  相似文献   

9.
《煤炭技术》2017,(3):168-170
在总结国内外研究人员关于煤与瓦斯突出灾害发生机理基础上,论述了煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测方法的优缺点,重点对地质因素预测煤与瓦斯突出灾害危险性的合理性进行了分析。结果表明:为了使煤与瓦斯突出灾害预防措施更加有效,需深入研究煤与瓦斯突出与地质因素的关系,以地质因素定量化为手段,对煤与瓦斯突出灾害的危险性进行预测。  相似文献   

10.
介绍了煤与瓦斯突出预测专家系统实现的关键技术。以煤与瓦斯突出预测的灵敏指标为基础,建立了煤与瓦斯突出区域预测?工作面预测的推理知识模型。借助XF专家系统开发工具,设计实现了一个基于W indows平台的煤与瓦斯突出预测专家系统。初步应用表明该专家系统基本能以专家级水平对煤与瓦斯突出做出预测。  相似文献   

11.
Analyzed the factors which affected the coal and gas outburst, then established the corresponding indicator system. Built a dynamic set-pair analysis prediction model which combined of Markov model and set-pair analysis model, and then it applied to coal and gas outburst prediction. Finally, compared the prediction results with the actual results. As provided a reference to the coalmine in safety decision-making. The research results indicate that there are four districts in high dangerous level, two districts in middle level and one district in low level, which consistent with the actual situation; the dynamic set-pair analysis model has a good effect in predicting coal and gas outburst. Especially in the continuous time intervals, according to the data of mined exploration and the connection degree analysis, we can deduce the dangerous levels of unexplored districts from the historical data. In different districts, the relevant indicators can be adjusted accordingly, so as to enhance the accuracy of the prediction.  相似文献   

12.
 通过统计分析,以活动构造、最大主应力、瓦斯压力和瓦斯含量等主要因素作为煤与瓦斯突出的主要判据,建立突出预测模式识别的准则与模型,用模式识别的方法实现了煤层突出危险性的分单元概率预测,进而划分出突出危险区、威胁区和安全区。克服了单一指标预测结果的不确定性,同时实现了多指标定量化的预测,提高了预测效果的可靠性。谢一矿实例验证表明了预测结果的可靠性。  相似文献   

13.
煤与瓦斯突出预测可拓聚类方法及应用   总被引:8,自引:1,他引:7       下载免费PDF全文
在综合分析煤与瓦斯突出多种影响因素基础上,提出预测敏感指标并建立煤与瓦斯突出危险性等级,应用物元和可拓集合理论建立了煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的物元可拓模型,提出了煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的可拓聚类方法.以平顶山煤业集团公司天安十三矿为例对煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测可拓聚类方法的可行性进行了验证.  相似文献   

14.
为了准确预测煤与瓦斯突出危险,首先利用灰色关联分析的方法寻找出影响煤与瓦斯突出的关键性因素,然后利用MATLAB的SVM工具箱建立煤与瓦斯突出的预测模型,并应用此模型识别瓦斯突出的类型。该模型基于MATLAB的SVM工具箱加以实现。实验结果表明,基于灰色关联分析的SVM煤与瓦斯突出预测模型结果可靠,效果良好,应用性强。  相似文献   

15.
以板块理论为基础,从区域地质构造研究入手,进行了活动断裂划分与评估,并结合地应力测量方法、数值模拟方法、实验室试验、GIS技术和计算机技术,研究和建立了突出危险区域预测方法。开发了煤与瓦斯突出区域预测决策分析系统,实现了煤与瓦斯突出区域预测的可视化管理,进而划分煤与瓦斯突出危险区、突出威胁区和无突出危险区,对煤与瓦斯突出危险性作出评估和预测,拓宽了煤与瓦斯突出预测途径,提高了瓦斯灾害预测的准确性。  相似文献   

16.
In order to predict the danger of coal and gas outburst in mine coal layer correctly, on the basis of the VLBP and LMBP algorithm in Matlab neural network toolbox, one kind of modified BP neural network was put forth to speed up the network convergence speed in this paper. Firstly, according to the characteristics of coal and gas outburst, five key influencing factors such as excavation depth, pressure of gas, and geologic destroy degree were selected as the judging indexes of coal and gas outburst. Secondly, the prediction model for coal and gas outburst was built. Finally, it was verified by practical examples. Practical application demonstrates that, on the one hand, the modified BP prediction model based on the Matlab neural network toolbox can overcome the disadvantages of constringency and, on the other hand, it has fast convergence speed and good prediction accuracy. The analysis and computing results show that the computing speed by LMBP algorithm is faster than by VLBP algorithm but needs more memory. And the resuits show that the prediction results are identical with actual results and this model is a very efficient prediction method for mine coal and gas outburst, and has an important practical meaning for the mine production safety. So we conclude that it can be used to predict coal and gas outburst precisely in actual engineering.  相似文献   

17.
The present situation of lacking fast and effective coal and gas outburst prediction techniques will lead to long outburst prevention cycles and poor accurate prediction effects and slows down coal roadway drive speed seriously. Also, due to historical and economic reasons, some coal mines in China are equipped with poor safety equipment, and the staff professional capability is low. What’s worse, artificial and mine geological conditions have great influences on the traditional technologies of coal and gas outburst prediction. Therefore, seeking a new fast and efficient coal and gas outburst prediction method is necessary. By using system engineering theory, combined with the current mine production conditions and based on the coal and gas outburst composite hypothesis, a coal and gas outburst spatiotemporal forecasting system was established. This system can guide forecasting work schedule, optimize prediction technologies, carry out step-by-step prediction and eliminate hazard hierarchically. From the point of view of application, the proposed system improves the prediction efficiency and accuracy. On this basis, computational intelligence methods to construct disaster information analysis platform were used. Feed-back results provide decision support to mine safety supervisors.  相似文献   

18.
电磁辐射技术在鹤岗南山煤矿突出预测中的应用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
采用电磁辐射监测技术,结合常规预测法,在鹤岗南山矿进行煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测。实践表明,电磁辐射信息综合反映了南山矿煤与瓦斯突出危险的主要影响因素和危险程度。通过南山矿突出危险工作面电磁辐射指标与常规指标的对比表明,电磁辐射指标与钻屑瓦斯解吸指标Δh2和钻屑量S这两个常规指标有着较好的一致性,而与钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度q的一致性较差。因此可以采用S,Δh2指标与电磁辐射指标相结合的方式对南山矿煤与瓦斯突出危险进行综合预测。  相似文献   

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