危机决策:一个基于"情景-权变"的分析框架

危机决策是非程序性决策,但是在非程序性中也有程序.现实中的危机决策程序是在程序化决策与非程序化决策两个极端之间的某种特定组合,特定的组合点(组合方式)对应特定的危机情景.在实际决策过程中,没有固定的危机决策程序可供遵循,每一种程序模式都有其对应的危机情景,只有根据具体的危机情景灵活采用恰当的权变策略才是有效的.     

基于云模型的应急决策方法

针对突发灾害事故应急决策过程中存在的模糊性和随机性问题,提出了一种基于云模型的应急决策方法.首先根据突发灾害事故应急的目标和特点选择决策指标并建立决策指标集;然后基于决策者的语言值及其对应的数域确定决策指标的权重值和评价值,利用逆向云发生器算法生成云模型的数字特征;再利用综合云的思想,运用云运算规则,得到各应急方案的评价云;最后把应急方案的评价云与评价标准云进行相似性比较,综合判断应急方案的评价等级并优选最佳的应急方案.实例研究表明:该方法充分利用了专家的群体信息,实现了应急方案决策中定性语言和定量评价之间的有效转化,结果更为直观、合理,便于改善应急决策的客观性和提高应急管理的效率.      

基于元胞自动机的月亮山景区景观格局动态模拟

研究以中国云南省"三江并流"世界自然遗产地月亮山核心景区作为实例,依据1994年和2004年Landsat TM多光谱遥感影像,基于元胞自动机(CA)模型进行景观格局的时空动态模拟,用灰色局势决策方法确定邻域转换规则,同时用Monte Carlo法考虑了模拟时转换的随机性.对4种情景进行了趋势预测:按原有模式演变;按聚集模式演变;按生态模式演变;按廊道生态模式演变.结果表明:依据研究区1994年的景观格局现状对2004年未来演变情景总趋势预测结果与实际相符;在信息不完全的情况下,邻域转换规则可以根据景观特征的动态变化随地理空间位置和时间而变化;该方法用于景观格局动态变化的预测是可行的.实现了对景观格局的动态模拟及规划方案的评估,为景现生态规划方案的确定提供了支持.     

"观念构建"模式在本科英语专业翻译教学中的应用

较之于传统的英语专业翻译教学模式,"观念建构"模式以其理念的创新性和操作的便捷性令人耳目-新.在此指出了传统翻译教学模式面临的问题,介绍了"观念建构"教学模式的核心理念、操作方法和创新之处,展示了应用这一模式的教学效果,并基于该模式的教学实践总结了若干粗浅经验.     

非常规突发事件特征刻画与应急决策研究

非常规突发事件应急决策是非常规突发事件应急管理的核心.在分析现有突发事件应急决策研究成果的基础上,依据非常规突发事件的内涵和特征刻画,提出基于特征刻画的非常规突发事件应急决策的一系列研究问题,并给出了进一步的研究方向.     

决策与博弈的比较思考

博弈是一种基于理性的选择.本文将博弈与决策与之比较,试图找到更加合理的决策方法.通过阐述了决策与博弈的概念辨析,寻求博弈在决策中的价值,最终对博弈与决策发展的新趋势进行预测.     

基于效果域匹配的自适应案例推理决策模型

针对现有研究对案例匹配模式认识和应用的不足,通过分析案例推理决策机理,构建基于效果域匹配的案例推理决策模型.模型在对案例匹配模式进行识别的基础上,基于效果域匹配,采用自适应控制算法推理求解目标问题的决策.应用于煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故应急救援的算例与数值仿真结果表明,基于效果域匹配的决策模型使目标问题更趋近于理想解,求解过程具有更好的可控性.     

基于情景活动的课程开发模式

如何看待知识,学习的本质是什么,这是每一位教育工作者必须面对的基本问题.知识是社会建构的产物,是一个集体的看问题和做事情的结果,而学习更多地是发生在社会环境中的一种活动,基于这种认识,教师就需要要求学生参与到社会的日常生活即情景中进行认知活动.在此提出了一种基于情景活动的课程开发模式,并分为三个主要环节:情景行为库建立、活动设计、课程体系组织.     

突发事件多目标动态应急决策研究综述

近年来自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生和社会安全等领域的突发公共事件频繁发生,不仅造成了严重的经济损失,而且夺走了数以亿计的生命,对全人类的生存和生活构成了严重的威胁.加强对突发事件应急决策的研究,不断提高政府预防和处置突发事件的能力,做好社会管理工作,是关系公众安危及国家安全的大事.主要从复杂数据类型的存储、分析、集成研究,突发事件信息管理系统研究,多目标动态应急决策研究三方面介绍了突发事件应急决策研究的状况,并阐述了其发展趋势.     

新大学英语教学模式下应用元认知策略——提高学生自主学习的可行性研究

本文是辽东学院承担的辽宁省教育厅大学英语教学改革项目-新建本科院校基于元认知策略培养的自主学习模式探究的阶段性成果.该教学模式经过两年多的研究探索与实践.创新性地提出了"3+l+X"教学模式,运用元认知策略,确立了一种以学生为主的基于计算机网络与传统课堂教学相整合的教学模式,提高学生的自主学习.本文简要介绍了该课程模式的研究内容、设计模式及初期成果.     

The effect of amount of possession of the trait of hostility on accuracy of perception of hostility in others.

Some theories of personality hold that an individual's perception of others is influenced by his own personality characteristics; more specifically, that a trait of low social value will be projected more into others, and that insight into the possession of these characteristics reduces this distortion. These 2 hypotheses were tested by having a group of college students rate each other (including themselves) on degree of friendliness or hostility. Agreement with group rating about self yielded the insight score. In general, the hypotheses were supported; the "friendly" Ss were most accurate in their perception of others, and insight was positively associated with accurate perception. From Psyc Abstracts 36:04:4HL16M. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Comparison of rates of infection of two methods of emergency ventricular drainage

The rates of infection of two methods of external ventricular drainage in use at Atkinson Morley's Hospital--namely, (a) percutaneous drainage with Rickham reservoirs and (b) tunnelled ventriculostomies--were compared in this retrospective review. Percutaneous drainage of CSF with Rickham reservoirs was associated with a 27% rate of infection as identified by positive microbiological cultures; tunnelled ventriculostomy catheters had a 10% infection rate. The difference in the infection rate between the two methods was statistically significant (P < 0.015). Other variables examined, including the age and sex of the patients and the reasons for ventricular drainage, were not associated with an increased rate of infection. Most infections from either method were caused by a coagulase negative staphylococcus. The average duration of ventricular drainage before identification of positive cultures was 5.7 days for Rickham reservoirs and 6.0 days for ventriculostomies.     

浅析《野草》的版画特征

鲁迅先生一生热爱美术作品,对版画中木刻兴趣尤甚.<野草>作为其"写心之作",亦呈现出一些与木刻版画一致的审美特征:一是具有木刻版画的色彩特征,多对比、多冷色,有阴郁的美感;二是具有木刻版画的力度特征,环境描写、人物刻画处处刀锋毕现,遒劲有力,有一种"力之美".     

四辊破碎机车刀架的改造

针对四辊破碎机车刀架车削中存在的几个问题,详细介绍了电动车刀架的结构和工作原理,建立主要设计参数的数学表达式,并进行适当的分析。改造后,这种电动车刀架运行平稳、可靠、方便、省力,取得了预期的效果。     

转炉炉壳热应力分析

根据实际转炉建立实体模型。以有限元为手段,考虑了炉衬和炉壳材料的物性参数随温度变化的特点和炉衬与炉壳之间膨胀间隙,计算了转炉炉壳在温度载荷和炉衬膨胀压力同时作用下的热应力。所得结果可为转炉炉壳设计提供依据。     

Results of treatment of cancer of the cardia

Cancer of the cardia is traditionally discussed with cardiac cancer of the lower portion of the esophagus and upper gastric cancer invading the esophagus, and the specific characteristics of cancer of the cardia have never been clearly defined. We reviewed the outcome of 172 patients with adenocarcinoma of the cardia who had undergone radical surgery between 1949 and 1994 in the Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery of the Cancer Institute Hospital. The centers of the tumors were located within 2 cm above and below the boundary between the esophagus and the stomach, and their longitudinal diameter was less than 8 cm. We divided the patients into an early period (1949-1979; n = 79) and a late period (1980-1994; n = 93), and focused on the historical transition. There were no differences in patient gender or histology between the two periods. However, the late period was associated with fewer cases of esophageal invasion and shorter longitudinal diameter, as the age of the population advanced. The number of advanced cancers such as the localized and infiltrative type had decreased, and early cancer and early clinical stage had become more common, but despite the fact that the number of early cancers had increased, extended dissection, such as thoracic and paraaortic lymph node dissection, was performed more frequently. By clinical stage, the long-term outcome markedly improved in Stage I patient in the late period, and tended to improve in Stage II and III patients. This appears to have been attributable to the prevention of micrometastasis by extended dissection, although the number of early cancers is another major potential cause. There were no differences in the outcome of Stage IV patients between the two periods, and further advances in multimodality therapy must be awaited. The range of resection is basically proximal gastrectomy, and if there are adequate indications, the prognosis is favorable. In view of the status of lymphatic flow and lymph node metastasis, and long-term results, lateroaortic lymph node dissection is important. Since the number of early cancer patients has been increasing, if intraabdominal recurrence is prevented, intrathoracic lymph node dissection will contribute greatly to the outcome of such patients.     

焦炭热性能指标意义浅析

通过对焦炭在高炉内的历程及其变化规律的剖析,阐述焦炭热性能指标的意义,形象地把焦炭在高炉内的损耗分为三部分(M1,M2,M3)。指出M2对焦比及焦炭价格有一定的指导作用。     

Comparison of the results of surgical and conservative treatment of fractures of the diaphysis of the tibia

In this paper is treated the fundamental problematic of the fracture of the diaphysis of the tibia and the therapeutic results after the conservative and operative treatment are confronted. Among 518 patients with 433 open fractures and 35 with closed fractures of the diaphysis of the tibia, successful treatment of more 2/3 was obtained in the period from 1968 to 1972. Following our casuistics and literature, whose results are similar, we find out that the average total treatment of the osteosynthesis of the fracture of the diaphysis was shortened for 2,5 months depending upon the type and the localisation of the fracture. Apolied methods of the operative and conservative and conservative treatment in relation to the velocity of the medical cure as well as to the extreme anatomical-functional results are analised. We noticed that osteosynthesis, made by the intermedullary nail and the extension of the canals or by a small AO table, by the achieved stability makes conditions of immediate motions and an early rehabilitation. Because of that it gives the best functional results.