共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 109 毫秒
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开展流域水资源变化趋势研究是水资源规划和开发利用的基础工作。基于RCPs(Representative Concentration Pathways)排放情景下7个全球气候模式的气候情景资料,分析了黄河流域未来气温及降水的变化趋势;采用RCCC-WBM模型动态模拟了黄河流域未来水资源情势。结果表明:黄河流域在未来30年(2021—2050年)气温将持续显著升高(线性升率为0.24~0.35 ℃/(10 a));与基准期(1961—1990年)相比,流域降水总体可能增多,但对降水变化预估的不确定性较大;受气候变化影响,黄河流域未来水资源量较基准期的可能会略微偏少,流域水资源供需矛盾可能进一步加剧;不确定性及其带来的评估风险是目前及未来气候变化影响及水资源评估中需要加强研究的重要内容。 相似文献
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黄河流域水污染问题研究 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
黄河流域水污染问题日益受到人们的关注,对其加以研究以找到水污染防治的应对措施是急需的,也是必须的。在分析黄河流域水污染现状及造成水污染原因的基础上,通过历史研究、比较研究、分析实证研究、自然科学与人文科学的交叉研究等多种研究方法,探索了流域、区域与行业的统一管理,流域管理与科技的结合,多渠道、全方位的资金来源,流域责任意识的树立及法律、法规的完善,明确各方的权、责、利,使各方都有所为、有所得,调动多方的积极性,真正建立权威、高效、统一、协调的流域管理体制和良性运行机制等防治水污染的途径。 相似文献
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黄河流域水资源综合规划概要 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
黄河水资源可持续利用是支撑黄河流域及相关地区可持续发展的关键,在水资源紧缺、水量减少和需水量增加背景下,应通过多种措施缓解黄河流域水资源短缺.基于未来水资源形势变化,提出南水北调东中线工程生效至西线一期工程生效前后三个阶段水资源配置方案.指出由于水资源短缺,城乡居民饮水、能源基地工业用水挤占农业和生态环境水量,使粮食安全和生态安全存在一定风险.提出近期必须采取强化节水、加强调度管理、兴建干流调蓄工程,远期实现跨流域调水等一系列对策和措施. 相似文献
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缺水已成为沿黄地区社会经济发展的主要制约因素。21世纪黄河流域将面临着水资源供需矛盾的巨大大力。加强水资源的统一管理,最大限度发挥黄河水资源的综合效益,对黄河流域社会经济可持续发展具有重大战略意义。 相似文献
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气候变化对海河流域水资源影响的研究与展望 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
温室效应引起的全球气候弯暖将对海河流域未来水资源产生不利影响。流域多年平均地表水和地下水资源量将分别减少约30亿m^3和20亿m^3,水资源更趋匮乏;农业灌溉用水量将增加约60亿m^3,保证率P=75%干旱年的供水量将减少约25亿m^3,缺水量在原有基础上将增加85亿m^3,隐伏着更为严重的缺水潜势。水资源规划和未来水资源的方略安排,要研究其对气候变化的应变能力,开展超前的适应性对策研究。 相似文献
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气候变化对黄河水资源的影响及其适应性管理 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
气候变化将直接影响降水、蒸散发和径流等水文要素,并在一定程度上改变水资源量及其时空分布,进一步影响水资源利用格局及水安全形势。气候变化对水资源安全的影响是国际上普遍关心的全球性问题,也是我国可持续发展面临的重大战略问题。黄河作为中华民族的母亲河,在全球气候变化的条件下,水资源的供需矛盾日益尖锐。结合黄河的水资源特点,研究和评价了气候变化情景下黄河水资源的脆弱性,并从配置、利用、调度、管理方面系统地提出了适应性对策:探讨有序适应的黄河流域水资源优化配置方案;完善水沙调控体系,探讨高效输沙模式;合理开发非常规水资源;优化调整梯级水库运用方式;实施最严格的水资源管理制度;积极实施外流域调水。 相似文献
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王丽娜 《水利与建筑工程学报》2015,(1):182-186,192
近年来在气候变化和人类活动的共同影响下,黄河上游地表水资源偏枯形势严峻,严重影响了我国北方地区经济的可持续发展。为研究气候变化对径流的影响,利用黄河上游14个气象站点的逐月降水、气温和潜在蒸发资料以及唐乃亥水文站和上诠水文站的径流资料,采用线性相关法和Mann-Kendall法分析了气候变化对黄河上游流域径流的影响,结果表明,研究区域降水大致呈不显著递增趋势,气温、蒸发量呈显著递增趋势,径流量呈现显著减少的趋势;径流量发生突变的时间与气象因素的一致性较差,因此,可以得出径流量不仅受气温、降水、蒸发等气候因子的影响,还受到其他因素例如土壤、植被等因素的影响。 相似文献
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International development policy makers are recognizing climate change and desertification as fundamental obstacles to the social and economic development of the Third World. Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly the Sahel region, has been severely impacted by the compounding effects of drought, deforestation and desertification. The Senegal River Basin in the West Africa is a prime example of a region where development objectives are seriously undermined by the drought-induced desertification process. The basic hydrologic constraint on development is revealed in a time series decompositionof Senegal River annual flow volumes, which strongly suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960. Two alternative time series mechanisms are hypothesized to account for the decreased flow volumes in recent decades. The first time series model suggests the presence of a long-term periodicity, while the second model hypothesizes an ARMA(1,1,) process. The second hypothesis provides a superior model fit. The stationary ARMA(1,1) model can be fitted successfully, however, only after explicitly removing a non-stationary component by linearly detrending after 1960. The implication of non-stationarity in Senegal River hydrology provides additional analytic evidence that the landscape degradation and desertification processes observed in Sahelian Africa can be in part attributed to climate change effects. Efforts to redress desertification should be at once conscious of complex socioeconomic forces exacerbating the desertification process and fundamental hydrologic constraints to river basin development. 相似文献
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黄河源区草场和湿地严重退化,沿河不少湿地出现逆向演替现象,近30a来干流与河口地区鱼类组成与数量急剧减少.预计气候变化条件下流域水循环过程的改变将进一步加剧水生态退化的趋势.针对黄河水生态现状,结合气候变化的可能影响,围绕黄河河流生态系统良性维持的关键生境和敏感因子,提出黄河水生态系统良性维持的适应性对策:确保重点生态单元用水,实施黄河湿地生态保护和生态修复工程,加强水生态监测、水生态保护与修复基础研究等. 相似文献
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根据黄河上游唐乃亥以上气候资料, 统计分析了近 50年气候变化特点并以其与唐乃亥站径流关系为依据,分析了气候变化对唐乃亥站径流量的影响.结果表明:黄河上游径流呈现以枯水期占优势的丰、枯水交替变化规律,其完整的丰枯循环周期约在18 a;1920~1998年的年径流量呈现弱增长趋势,2000年以后进入一个丰水段;该区年均径流量为617 m3/s,主要集中在6~10月份;月均径流、降水和气温在变换趋势和影响月份上具有高相关性;在全球变暖的大环境下,研究区气温处于波动上升状态,20世纪90年代以后,降水、径流均呈下降趋势. 相似文献
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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Tarim River Basin 总被引:27,自引:6,他引:21
The plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River basin, west China is investigated in this study. The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and streamflow are detected by using both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The possible association between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series are tested. This study enhances the knowledge of the climate change impact on water resources in the Tarim River basin. The conclusion obtained in this investigation shows that the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the 5% level of significance during the past 50 yr, and precipitation also exhibited an upward tendency during the past several decades. A significant jump is also detected for both time series around 1986. This may be resulted from the possible impact of climate change, although the interior climate mechanism needs further investigation. Although precipitation and the streamflow from the headwater of the Tarim River exhibited significant increase, decreasing trend has been detected in the streamflow along the mainstream of the river. It implies that anthropogenic activities instead of the climate change dominated the streamflow cessation and the drying-up of the river. Results also showed that no significant association exists between the ENSO and the temperature, precipitation and streamflow in the study area. This conclusion shows that the water curtailment, river desiccation, and ecosystem deterioration in the Tarim River basin may be mainly resulted from the impact of human activities. 相似文献
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利用黄河月水文模型 ,采取假定的气候方案 ,分析了中上游径流量对气候变化的响应。结果表明 ,径流量对降水变化的响应较气温更为显著 ,气温不变 ,降水增加 10 %的情况下 ,中上游径流量约增加 17% ;降水不变 ,气温升高 1℃ ,径流减少 5 %左右 ;在区域分布上 ,中游较上游对气候变化敏感 相似文献