城镇居民生活用水的需水函数分析和水价节水效果评估

结合北京市统计数据分析表明，城镇居民人均年生活用水量与居民生活用水购买力系数（居民可支配收入与生活用水水价的比值）关系十分显著，本文在此基础上．探讨并建立了城镇居民生活用水的需求函数和水价节水效果的评估方法。实例测算结果表明，北京市城镇居民生活用水购买力系数的边际弹性为0．38．亦即北京市城镇居民生活用水购买力降低1％，城镇居民生活用水量减少0．38％；提高水价具有显著的节水效果，“十五”期间北京市城镇居民用水的水价累计节水量达到了0．9亿m^3，人均年节水量2m^3；现状北京市不同收入人群城镇居民水费支出占可支配收入的比例均小于1．0％，低于国际通行的评判可承受标准值2．5％，表明北京市城镇居民对水价承受能力比较大，水价仍有较大上升空间。     

基于多智能体的城镇家庭用水量模拟预测分析

提出了基于多智能体的城镇家庭用水量模拟模型(MA-UHWDS),通过构造不同发展情景,对家庭用水量变化趋势及其影响因素进行了分析。以青岛市为实证城市,采用2003—2012年统计资料,计算分析了居民用水边际消费倾向、基本用水需求和不同收入户人均用水量,并对不同情景下2013—2022年各类收入户人均用水量和城镇家庭用水总量进行了定量模拟预测分析。结果表明:2003—2012年中,城镇家庭平均水费支出占总消费支出的比重仅为0.395%,易造成居民节水意识淡薄,最低收入户人均用水量除2008年外均低于基本需水量,而最高收入户平均超过基本需水量14.16 m3,水价改革需综合考虑低收入家庭的支付能力和高收入家庭的过度用水;2022年7类收入户在水价高增长收入低增长情景下的人均用水量与在水价低增长收入高增长情景相比下,分别减少了16.7%、18.4%、18.1%、16.1%、15.0%、17.8%和13.8%,水价和收入会明显影响家庭用水量。MA-UHWDS为区域用水总量调控提供了新的研究思路和工具。     

北京市城市居民生活用水水价承受能力预测

对北京市1999年以来不同收入水平城市居民的生活用水水费负担情况进行了分析,并在对北京市中低收入户人均可支配收入、水费支出系数进行预测的基础上,对北京市2010年、2015年和2020年的城市居民生活用水综合水价承受能力进行了预测,为北京市水价的调整提供参考。     

水价调整支付意愿调查分析

水价调整关系到百姓的基本生活而格外引人关注.通过开展水价调整支付意愿调查,可以了解不同消费群体支付水价的实际情况、支付意愿、对自来水公司供水服务满意程度,增强消费者对水价调整认识.以北票城区为试点,运用支付意愿调查方法,针对家庭用水户和非家庭用水户开展水价调整支付意愿调查活动,收集第一手资料,为北票市水价调整政策制订提供科学依据,为水价调整方案实施、缓解用水户对抗心理发挥作用.     

西安市城镇居民阶梯水价优化及节水效果研究

阶梯水价对于抑制城镇居民不合理用水具有重要现实意义。为了更好地发挥其杠杆作用,分析了西安市现行阶梯水价情况,采用供求关系定价模型,测算了2000—2020年水价、人均用水量及人均可支配收入的相关性和弹性系数,从用水量标准、居民接受度、加大阶梯水价级差、水费支出系数角度设计了4种阶梯水价优化方案,分析其节水效果,预测了未来几年水费支出系数。结果表明：西安市水费支出系数较小,阶梯水价应适当提高;水价、人均用水量与人均可支配收入存在显著的相关性,水价和人均可支配收入的弹性系数分别为-0.476、0.329;4种阶梯水价优化方案的一阶水价提升范围为0.71~1.30元/m³,均能在不同程度发挥节水作用,其中方案4阶梯水价提升幅度最高,节水效果最佳,方案1和方案3从城市居民生活用水标准出发,适度提高水价,节水效果居中,方案2阶梯水价及水量调整幅度较小,节水效果较差;长期保持同一水价,水费支出系数会逐渐减少。研究成果可为城镇居民阶梯水价改革提供参考。     

新疆石河子市居民生活用水水价研究

对石河子市居民支付水费情况、居民对水价的承受能力进行了调查分析,从结果看出:目前石河子市的居民生活用水水价还在居民的承受能力范围内,水费支出也在居民的承受力内。采用水资源价值模糊数学模型对石河子市水价进行了计算,得出了该市居民生活用水合理的价格范围为1.95~2.70元/m3。     

南水北调中线工程用水户水价承受能力分析

根据南水北调工程近期供水的目标,对工程受水区各主要城市居民生活用水和工业用水的水价承受能力进行了分析。结果表明,目前受水区各主要城市居民生活用水和工业用水的水价总体偏低,有较大提价空间;但各省市最低收入居民对测算的中等收入居民的生活用水水价较难承受,建议建立定额用水制度,在总体水价不降低的前提下减少低收入群体的水费支出。     

可持续发展水价的理论分析--二论合理的水价形成机制

水价所决定的水供求不能超出水资源的承载能力和水环境承载能力，这是可持续发展水价的理论内涵，水价所决定的收支水平必须保证供水工程能持续运行和用水户有支付能力，因此，可持续发展水价所决定的水供求关系，要以水资源承载能力，水环境承载能力，供水工程承受能力作为定价的核心内容，以用水户承受能力作为边界条件，笔对可持续发展水价的定价区间，水需求的价格弹性与用水户承受能力，水价模型的修正进行分析探讨。     

水资源需求管理政策:水价效应的理论分析

水价是水资源需求管理中的重要经济手段,发挥着调节水资源供求、抑制水资源需求过度增长,并且为用水者提供节水激励,从而优化配置水资源的作用。本文从理论角度系统分析了水价在水资源需求管理中的功效,并结合我国水价改革的实践,指出我国目前水价总体水平仍然偏低,水费支出占居民可支配收入比例较小;水价构成中反映水资源稀缺价值的资源水价、环境水价所占比例较小;且两部水价、累进水价制度的实施范围还较小。最后指明了水价改革思路,即分阶段、有差异的逐步提高水价,改变水价各构成要素的比例关系,适当提高水资源费的水平,增强终端用水户和供水单位的节水激励,选择科学的水价形成机制,加强对水费的征收和监管,实现“以水养水”的目标。     

陕西省城镇居民用水状况调查研究

陕西是一个缺水大省,并且城镇居民用水存在较严重的浪费现象。为了掌握城镇居民的用水量和用水规律,满足城镇供水系统设计、运行、管理的需要,对陕西省城镇居民用水状况进行了调查研究。调查研究内容包括：家庭成员文化程度、家庭组成、家庭月收入、家庭用水量及水费支出情况等。调查结果表明：陕西省城镇供水水价平均为2.142元/t,家庭水费支出占家庭收入的0.63%,由于水费支出比例低,城镇居民节水意识不强,水价仍有提高空间。提出了促进城镇居民节约用水的措施。     

Urban Household Water Demand in Beijing by 2020: An Agent-Based Model

Beijing is faced with severe water scarcity due to rapid socio-economic development and population expansion, and a guideline for water regulation has been released to control the volume of national water use. To cope with water shortage and meet regulation goal, it has great significance to study the variations of water demand. In this paper, an agent-based model named HWDP is developed for the prediction of urban household water demand in Beijing. The model involves stochastic behaviors and feedbacks caused by two agent roles which are government agent and household agent. The government agent adopts economic and propagandist means to make household agent optimize its water consumption. Additionally, the consumption is also affected by the basic water demand deduced from extended linear expenditure system. The results indicate that the total water demand of urban households in Beijing will increase to 317.5 million cubic meters by 2020, while the water price keeps growing at a low level. However, it would drop to 294.9 million cubic meters with high growth of water price and low increment in per capita disposable income. Finally, some policy recommendations on water regulation are made.     

Assessing and Modelling the Influence of Household Characteristics on Per Capita Water Consumption

Sustainable urban water supply management requires, ideally, accurate evidence based estimations on per capita consumption and a good understanding of the factors influencing the consumption. The information can then be used to achieve improved water demand forecasts. Water consumption patterns in the developed countries have been extensively investigated. However, very little is known for the developing world. This paper investigates per capita water consumption resulting from water use activities in different types of households typically found in urban areas of the developing world. A data collection programme was executed for 407 households to extract information on household characteristics, water user behaviour and intensity and the nature of indoor and outdoor water use activities. The rigorous statistical analysis of the data shows that per capita water consumption increases with income: 241, 272 and 290 l/capita/day for low, medium and high income households, respectively. Additionally, the results suggest that per capita consumption increases with the number of adult female members in the household and almost one-third of consumption is via taps. The collected data has been used to develop statistical models using two different regression techniques: multiple linear (STEPWISE) and evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR). The inclusion of demographic parameters in the developed models considerably improved the prediction accuracy. Two of the best performing models are used to forecast the water demand for the city, using four future scenarios: market forces, fortress world, policy reform and great transition. The results suggest that the domestic water demand would be highest in the fortress world scenario due to the increase in population and size of built-up area.     

阶梯式计量水价在城市居民生活用水需求管理中的应用

基于计量经济模型,以北京市为例分析了水价对城市居民生活用水需求的影响,并进一步探讨了阶梯式计量水价在城市居民生活用水需求管理中的应用。     

Determinants of Water Connection Type and Ownership of Water-Using Appliances in Ireland

Developing optimal policies on management of water resources, investment in relevant infrastructure and the protection of the environment requires data on the current and likely future demand for water services. In jurisdictions without water metering, information on the factors influencing demand tends to be limited. Microdata from household surveys can provide some relevant information. Domestic water demand is influenced both by the number of households and their characteristics, in particular the extent to which they employ water-using appliances. This paper focuses on domestic ownership of water-using appliances in the Republic of Ireland, a country where rapid economic and demographic change have put pressure on water and sewerage infrastructure but where there is little domestic metering. Using a large household micro-dataset, we use regression analysis to examine the determinants of the water and sewage mains connection status of Irish homes and to identify the characteristics of households that are associated with having larger or smaller numbers of appliances. Our empirical results suggest that Ireland will have a rising share of mains water and sewerage connections in the future. Household income, house price, dwelling types other than ‘detached’, younger dwellings, and urban location are all positively associated with having a mains connection. The number of types of water-using appliance in a household is positively associated with income, house price, number of residents, owner-occupation, having children (or, to a lesser extent, multiple people) in the household, having a detached house, being located in a rural area and living in a dwelling built after 1997.     

城镇居民生活用水的计量经济学分析与应用实例

价格是影响用水的最主要因素之一。本文应用入户调查的数据，应用计量经济学方法分析了深圳市城镇居民生活用水的价格弹性和收入弹性；计算了假设的水价调整方案对深圳市城镇居民生活需水的影响，并提出了对深圳市水价调整的建议。分析结果表明，深圳特区内、外在用水行为和价格对用水的影响方面存在明显的差别，目前深圳的阶梯水价设置不合理；价格可以作为调整深圳水资源供需关系的有效手段；为了有效控制用水的快速增加，应同时调整价格水平和阶梯。     

Water Consumption in the Kitchen – A Case Study in Four European Countries

As there is a limited availability of information on the domestic water consumption through kitchen taps, data collected in a study on dishwashing habits in four European countries has been analysed to gather common habits in the water end-use of households. This paper provides empirical data based on water consumption measurements in 81 households. With the help of a simultaneous webcam observation of the kitchen sink, it was possible to assign the metered consumption data to a specific water use, such as cleaning, drinking or cooking. Water end-use has been analysed with this approach at a very deep level. The study shows that there are, in some measure, large country-specific differences in diurnal water use, as well as in the composition of kitchen activities. Furthermore, the research findings indicate that small households use much more water per person and day than bigger households. This is rather important as demographic shifts are causing a decreased average household size - particularly in urban areas - and, therewith, a growing demand. Water-saving measures at the household and individual level should meet this trend. This paper, therefore, also provides information on to what extent particular kitchen tasks are influential for water consumption in the kitchen, respectively, which activities are important to concentrate on for consumer advice regarding water conservation.     

The Economics of Household Demand for Water: The Case of Kandy Municipality,Sri Lanka

This study estimates the demand for domestic water in a fast-growing city of a developing country. Monthly data for 40 randomly selected households for a six-year period were used for the estimation. There were three price hikes during the study period, which provided adequate variation in the prices for an econometric estimation. A log-log model was selected as a proper specification for the demand function. Marginal price, difference price, income, and household size were used as the independent variables. After correcting the data for auto-correlation and heteroscedasticity, the final model was estimated. Results show all the expected signs with statistical significance. Price elasticity (marginal) and income elasticity for water in the study area are estimated to be - 0.34 and 0.08, respectively. Thus, our findings confirm the previous findings that water is neither price- nor income-elastic. Given these responses, a price hike may not help conserve water in the study area. However, very low price responsiveness can be used to increase water revenues of the municipality.     

改进的GM(1,1)模型在城市需水量预测中的应用

基本GM(1,1)模型未充分利用新信息,且背景值构造不合理,对变化非平稳的数据序列预测精度较低,为此,本文采用重构背景值和等维递补原理对基本GM(1,1)模型进行改进,建立重构背景值的GM(1,1)等维递补模型,并运用改进模型预测北方某市需水量,结果表明,改进模型预测精度更高,为需水量的预测提供了一种新方法.