Assessment of Snowmelt Runoff Using Remote Sensing and Effect of Climate Change on Runoff

Runoff regimes in Himalayan basins are controlled mainly by melting of snow and ice cover. The air temperature is the principal variable to estimate the importance of the melting of the snow cover when using snowmelt runoff model. Changes in temperature will ultimately affect stream flow and snow/ice melt runoff in particular. Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the present climate and used to predict future climatic changes and its effect. These GCMs have certain disadvantages, therefore another simple approach of hypothetical scenarios have been developed and successfully demonstrated in this study to investigate the effect of changes in temperature. Adopted plausible climate scenarios included three temperature scenarios (T + 1, T + 2, T + 3°C). The effect of these changes has been studied on the stream flow which has contribution from snowmelt, rainfall and base flow in the Satluj basin. It was observed that with the increase in temperature there is not much change in total stream flow, but the distribution of stream flow have changed. More snowmelt runoff occurred earlier due to increased snow melting however, reduced in the monsoon months.     

Lake-Level Change and Water Balance Analysis at Lake Qinghai,West China during Recent Decades

Lake Qinghai, the largest saline lake with an area of 4,260 km² (2000) and average depth of 21 m (1985) in West China, has experienced severe decline in water level in recent decades. This study aimed to investigate water balance of the lake and identify the causes for the decline in lake level. There was a 3.35-m decline in water level with an average decreasing rate of 8.0 cm year⁻¹ between 1959 and 2000. The lake water balance showed that mean annual precipitation between 1959 and 2000 over the lake was 357 ± 10 mm, evaporation was 924 ± 10 mm, surface runoff water inflow was 348 ± 21 mm, groundwater inflow was 138 mm ± 9 and the change in lake level was −80 ± 31 mm. The variation of lake level was highly positively correlated to surface runoff and precipitation and negatively to evaporation, the correlation coefficients were 0.89, 0.81 and −0.66, respectively. Water consumption by human activities accounts for 1% of the evaporation loss of the lake, implying that water consumption by human activities has little effect on lake level decline. Most dramatic decline in lake level occurred in the warm and dry years, and moderate decline in the cold and dry years, and relatively slight decline in the warm and wet years, therefore, the trend of cold/warm and dry climate in recent decades may be the main reasons for the decline in lake level.     

Soil Erosion Assessment in a Hilly Catchment of North Eastern India Using USLE, GIS and Remote Sensing

In the present study, soil erosion assessment of Dikrong river basin of Arunachal Pradesh (India) was carried out. The river basin was divided into 200 × 200 m grid cells. The Arc Info 7.2 GIS software and RS (ERDAS IMAGINE 8.4 image processing software) provided spatial input data and the USLE was used to predict the spatial distribution of the average annual soil loss on grid basis. The average rainfall erositivity factor (R) for Dikrong river basin was found to be 1,894.6 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ year⁻¹. The soil erodibility factor (K) with a magnitude of 0.055 t ha h ha⁻¹ MJ⁻¹ mm⁻¹ is the highest, with 0.039 t ha h ha⁻¹ MJ⁻¹ mm⁻¹ is the least for the watershed. The highest and lowest value of slope length factor (LS) is 53.5 and 5.39 respectively for the watershed. The highest and lowest values of crop management factor (C) were found out to be 0.004 and 1.0 respectively for the watershed. The highest and lowest value of conservation factor (P) were found to be 1 and 0.28 respectively for the watershed. The average annual soil loss of the Dikrong river basin is 51 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. About 25.61% of the watershed area is found out to be under slight erosion class. Areas covered by moderate, high, very high, severe and very severe erosion potential zones are 26.51%, 17.87%, 13.74%, 2.39% and 13.88% respectively. Therefore, these areas need immediate attention from soil conservation point of view.     

Pareto Random Variables for Hydrological Modeling

Motivated by hydrological problems, the exact distributions of the sum X + Y, the product X Y and the ratio X/(X + Y) are derived when X and Y are independent Pareto random variables. A detailed application of the results is provided to extreme rainfall data from Florida.     

丰满流域春季径流水源及产流模式分析

春季径流主要来源于融雪水和冻土条件下的降雨径流,但是,如何定量进行各产流模式阶段划分和各水源量的估算,一直是春季径流研究的挑战。为了评价多年平均状态下的春季水源组成及其产流模式阶段,结合丰满流域1944—2017年的日径流量资料,根据典型年(2017年)春季日径流过程总结出东北春季径流过程由3种产流模式构成,即融雪产流模式、冻土条件下融雪-降雨产流模式、冻土条件下降雨产流模式。通过Eckhardt递归数字滤波法进行基流分割,定义地下径流与总径流之比为基流比,根据总径流量和基流比曲线变化趋势分析产流模式起止日期及历时,并采用箱形图对历年产流模式起止日期及历时进行统计分析。结果表明:丰满流域在多年平均状况下,融雪产流开始日期为3月21日,冻土条件下融雪、降雨产流开始日期为4月21日,融雪产流结束日期为5月11日,冻土消融日期为5月28日;融雪产流模式历时为31 d,冻土条件下融雪、降雨产流模式历时20 d,冻土条件下降雨产流模式历时18 d;多年平均状况下,丰满流域春季总径流中,融雪产流约占39.4%,冻土条件下融雪、降雨产流约占35.3%,冻土条件下降雨产流约占25.3%;丰满流域年总径流中,融雪产流约占10.3%,冻土条件下融雪、降雨产流约占9.2%,冻土条件下降雨产流约占6.6%。研究成果对北方地区流域春汛来水预报具有参考价值。     

Hydrologic and Hydrogeologic Characterization of a Deltaic Aquifer System in Orissa, Eastern India

The present study focuses on the in-depth hydrologic and hydrogeologic analyses of Kathajodi-Surua Inter-basin within the Mahanadi deltaic system of Orissa, eastern India to explore the possibility of enhanced and sustainable groundwater supply. The results of 6 years (2001–2006) streamflow analysis indicated that the river flow is highly seasonal and it reduces to almost no flow during summer seasons. Land use map of the study area for the monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) seasons was developed by remote sensing technique and runoff estimation was done by curve number method. The runoff estimated for the 20-year period (1990–2009) varied from a minimum of 10.2% of the total monsoon rainfall in 1995 to a maximum of 43.3% in 2003. The stratigraphy analysis indicated that a leaky confined aquifer comprising medium to coarse sand exists at depths of 15 to 50 m and has a thickness of 20 to 55 m. The analysis of pumping test data at 9 sites by Aquifer-Test software indicated that the aquifer hydraulic conductivity ranges from 11.3 to 96.8 m/day, suggesting significant aquifer heterogeneity. Overall groundwater flow is from north-west to south-east direction. There is a 5 to 6 m temporal variation and 3 to 4 m spatial variation of groundwater levels over the basin. The rainfall-groundwater dynamics and stream-aquifer interaction in the river basin were studied by correlation analysis of groundwater level with weekly rainfall and river stage. The correlation between the weekly rainfall and weekly groundwater level was found to vary from ‘poor’ to ‘fair’ (r = 0.333 to 0.659). In contrast, the weekly groundwater level was found to be strongly correlated with the weekly river stage (r = 0.686 to 0.891). The groundwater quality was found suitable for both irrigation and drinking purposes. It is recommended that a simulation-cum-optimization modeling following an integrated approach is essential for efficient utilization of groundwater resources in the study area.     

Utilization of Time-Based Meteorological Droughts to Investigate Occurrence of Streamflow Droughts

Complexities of streamflow drought analyses motivate utilization of simple, alternative methods, which can provide timely information for effective water resources management. For this purpose time-based meteorological drought characteristics, identified by SPI _{3 − month} , SPI _{6 − month} and SPI _Anuual are investigated. A boxplot approach is used to exclude non-rainy months from the analysis. Streamflow drought characteristics are described by drought intensities, and are calculated by the threshold level method. The non-parametric Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test is used to investigate relations between streamflow drought intensities and SPI _{3 − month} , SPI _{6 − month} and SPI _Anuual . The study area is the Doroodzan Watershed and Reservoir in southwestern Iran, with four rain gauge and two hydrometric stations. According to the results, most of time-based SPI values show significant relations (at 5% level of significance) with streamflow drought intensities. However, the most significant relation is between SPI _Anuual of Jamalbeik rain gauge station (centrally located in the study area) and drought intensities of Chamriz hydrometric station (located at the reservoir inlet). Comparison of study results with available records of documented droughts, confirms applicability of the proposed procedures. The SPI _Anuual is based on one-year-ahead moving average rainfalls. Then, SPI _Anuual of Jamalbeik station can be used to investigate occurrence of streamflow drought in Chamriz hydrometric station.     

Analysis of the effect of climate change on the Nakdong river stream flow using indicators of hydrological alteration

This study models the effect of climate change on runoff in southeast Korea using the TANK conceptual rainfall-runoff model. The results are assessed using the indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA) developed by U.S. Nature Conservancy. Future climate time series are obtained by scaling historical series, provided by four global climate models (GCMs, IPCC, 2007) and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (IPCC, 2000), to reflect a maximum increase of 3.6 °C in the average surface air temperature and 33% in the annual precipitation. To this end, the spatio-temporal change factor method is used, which considers changes in the future mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as the daily rainfall distribution. In this study, the variance range for precipitation is from +3.55% to +33.44% compared to the present for years between 2071 and 2100. The variance range for the daily mean temperature is estimated between +1.59 °C and +3.58 °C. Although the simulation results from different GCMs and GHG emissions scenarios indicate different responses of the flows to the climate change, the majority of modeling results show that there will be more runoff in southeast Korea in the future. According to the analysis results, the predicted impacts of hydrological alteration caused by climate change on the aquatic ecosystem are as follows: 1) an increase in the availability of aquatic ecosystem habitats in Nakdong River in future summers and winters, 2) an increase in stress on the aquatic ecosystem due to extremely high stream flow, 3) an increase in the stress duration of flood events for the Nakdong River downstream and 4) an increase in aquatic ecosystem stress caused by rapid increases or decreases in stream flow.     

SRM融雪径流模型在疏勒河流域上游的应用

疏勒河是西北典型的干旱区内陆河流域,其冰雪融水是春季径流补给的重要来源之一。本文结合MODIS积雪产品MOD10A2、DEM数据和气象台站数据,构建了疏勒河流域上游SRM融雪径流模型,模拟结果的拟合优度确定系数Nash-Sutcliffe系数R2=0.834和体积差DV=1.63%。结果表明:该模型能基本上把握疏勒河流域融雪径流的趋势,达到了较好的模拟效果,可用于该流域春季径流的预测,为预防春季融雪型洪水灾害和减轻春季旱情提供了基础。     

Monitoring and Assessment of Surface Water Abstractions for Pasture Irrigation from Landsat Imagery: Bega–Bemboka River,NSW, Australia

Irrigation of pasture forms the greatest single use of irrigation water in Australia yet there has been little monitoring of its spatial extent and water demands across southeast Australian coastal catchments where irrigated dairy farming forms an important rural livelihood. This paper provides an analysis of spatio-temporal patterns in the extent of irrigated pasture in the Bega–Bemboka catchment on the south coast of New South Wales from Landsat imagery, and establishes quantile regression relationships between metered monthly irrigation abstraction volumes, evaporation and rainfall. Over the metering period (2000–2007), annual water usage averages 4.8 ML ha^− 1 year^− 1, with January being the month of highest demand with an annualised usage of 10.4 ML ha^− 1 year^− 1. Analysis of Landsat imagery indicates that the spatial extent of irrigated pasture across the catchment has increased from 1266 ha in 1983 to 1842 ha by 2002, together with amalgamation of smaller holdings along less reliable streams into larger parcels along the trunk stream. Quantile regressions to estimate monthly mean and maximum abstraction volumes from monthly evaporation and rainfall data indicate that abstraction volumes are more closely correlated with evaporation. When combined with Landsat analyses of the spatial extent of irrigated areas, such relationships enable estimation of catchment-scale hydrological effects of irrigation abstractions that in turn can help guide regional-scale assessments of the ecological effects and sustainability of spatially and temporally changing irrigation abstraction volumes.     

Watershed Modeling to Assessing Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Water Supply Availability

Climate change could have impacts on hydrologic systems threatening, availability of water supply resources. In Illinois, regional water supply planning efforts are attempting to better understand potential impacts on low flow and surface water availability through analysis of hydrologic sensitivity to a range of climate scenarios. This paper explores the development, calibration and validation of Fox River watershed model using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and the model’s application to assess impacts of potential climate change. The watershed model is calibrated and validated using daily flow records at three gauging stations. Automatic model calibration followed by manual refinement of parameter values was performed. Calibration results were generally good for monthly and annual time step but only satisfactory for daily simulations. Based on simulations of global climate models produced for IPCC fourth assessment report, climate scenarios were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey for water supply planning initiatives in north-east and east-central Illinois. These scenarios showed ranges of temperature change between 0°C to +3.3°C and annual precipitation changes between −127 to +127 mm in the next 50 years, excluding the 5% extreme ends of those climate model simulations considered. Changes in climate were reflected using adjustments to the historical record, instead of using direct outputs from individual climate models. The watershed model was used to assess the impact of potential climate change. Application results indicate that annual precipitation change of 127 mm on average increases annual water yield and 7-day low flows by 28% and 19%, respectively. In contrast, a temperature change of +3.3°C results in average reductions of annual water yield by 13% and 7-day low flows by 10%. Seasonal effects were investigated through evaluation of changes in average monthly flows. Increasing precipitation resulted in significant changes in streamflows in late summer and fall months where as increasing temperature greatly affects winter flows due to snowmelt. The key implication is that climate change-induced variability of streamflows could have major impacts on water supply availability in the Fox River watershed and in particular, increased periods of drought could result in deficit of supplies during seasons of peak water use. It must be noted that this analysis does not examine the potential impacts of population growth and water use on water supply availability, which are also expected to have substantial influences in the region.     

Development and Integration of Sub-hourly Rainfall–Runoff Modeling Capability Within a Watershed Model

Increasing urbanization changes runoff patterns to be flashy and instantaneous with decreased base flow. A model with the ability to simulate sub-daily rainfall–runoff processes and continuous simulation capability is required to realistically capture the long-term flow and water quality trends in watersheds that are experiencing urbanization. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been widely used in hydrologic and nonpoint sources modeling. However, its subdaily modeling capability is limited to hourly flow simulation. This paper presents the development and testing of a sub-hourly rainfall–runoff model in SWAT. SWAT algorithms for infiltration, surface runoff, flow routing, impoundments, and lagging of surface runoff have been modified to allow flow simulations with a sub-hourly time interval as small as one minute. Evapotranspiration, soil water contents, base flow, and lateral flow are estimated on a daily basis and distributed equally for each time step. The sub-hourly routines were tested on a 1.9 km² watershed (70% undeveloped) near Lost Creek in Austin Texas USA. Sensitivity analysis shows that channel flow parameters are more sensitive in sub-hourly simulations (Δt = 15 min) while base flow parameters are more important in daily simulations (Δt = 1 day). A case study shows that the sub-hourly SWAT model reasonably reproduces stream flow hydrograph under multiple storm events. Calibrated stream flow for 1 year period with 15 min simulation (R ² = 0.93) shows better performance compared to daily simulation for the same period (R ² = 0.72). A statistical analysis shows that the improvement in the model performance with sub-hourly time interval is mostly due to the improvement in predicting high flows. The sub-hourly version of SWAT is a promising tool for hydrology and non-point source pollution assessment studies, although more development on water quality modeling is still needed.     

Small Catchment Agricultural Management Using Decision Variables Defined at Catchment Scale and a Fuzzy Rule-Based System: A Mediterranean Vineyard Case Study

Physically based hydrological models are increasingly used to simulate the impact of land use changes on water and mass transfers. The problems associated with this type of parameter-rich model from a water management perspective are related to the need for (1) a large number of local parameters instead of only a few catchment-scale decision variables and (2) the technical skills and computational expertise necessary to perform these models. This study aimed to show that it is possible to define a reduced number of decision variables and rules to synthesise numerical simulations carried out through a physically based model. The MHYDAS model was run on a Mediterranean vineyard catchment located in southern France (Roujan, Herault) for an actual, common rainfall event to calculate the runoff coefficient. The simulation results concerned 3,000 samples of contrasted scenarios. The scenarios were characterised by four catchment-scale decision variables related to agricultural practices: the proportion of the area of non agricultural land, the proportion of the area subjected to full chemical weeding practices (with the complement being mechanical weeding), the spatial arrangement of the practices based on the distance to the outlet and the initial soil moisture content. The simulation results were used to generate fuzzy linguistic rules to predict the runoff coefficient, as computed by the physical model from the decision variables. For a common end of spring rainfall event, simulations showed that the runoff coefficient was most heavily influenced by the initial soil moisture and the proportion of the area of full chemical weeding practices and the proportion of the area of other land uses and their spatial arrangement also played a role. The fuzzy rule-based model was able to reproduce the hydrological output with good accuracy (R² = 0.97). Sensitivity analysis to the rainfall magnitude showed that if the amount of rainfall was the key factor explaining the runoff coefficient absolute values, the structure of the rule base remained stable for rainfall events close to the one studied.     

Effect of Hedging-Integrated Rule Curves on the Performance of the Pong Reservoir (India) During Scenario-Neutral Climate Change Perturbations

This study has evaluated the effects of improved, hedging-integrated reservoir rule curves on the current and climate-change-perturbed future performances of the Pong reservoir, India. The Pong reservoir was formed by impounding the snow- and glacial-dominated Beas River in Himachal Pradesh. Simulated historic and climate-change runoff series by the HYSIM rainfall-runoff model formed the basis of the analysis. The climate perturbations used delta changes in temperature (from 0° to +2 °C) and rainfall (from ?10 to +10 % of annual rainfall). Reservoir simulations were then carried out, forced with the simulated runoff scenarios, guided by rule curves derived by a coupled sequent peak algorithm and genetic algorithms optimiser. Reservoir performance was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. The results show that the historic vulnerability reduced from 61 % (no hedging) to 20 % (with hedging), i.e., better than the 25 % vulnerability often assumed tolerable for most water consumers. Climate change perturbations in the rainfall produced the expected outcomes for the runoff, with higher rainfall resulting in more runoff inflow and vice-versa. Reduced runoff caused the vulnerability to worsen to 66 % without hedging; this was improved to 26 % with hedging. The fact that improved operational practices involving hedging can effectively eliminate the impacts of water shortage caused by climate change is a significant outcome of this study.     

白山流域春季径流影响因素及作用机理识别

我国北方流域春汛来水水源组成多元,影响径流过程的因素众多,且各因素的作用过程复杂,给春汛来水预报带来了挑战。春汛是白山流域第二个集中来水期,准确的春汛预报是科学合理制定水库调度方案的前提和基础,既可以保证农业供水需求、航运用水需求,又能为后期防汛预留库容,实现水资源高效利用。依托白山水库1958—2016年春季长系列日入库流量过程资料,通过Eckhardt递归数字滤波法进行基流分割并绘制基流比过程,根据基流比过程演化趋势将春季径流的水源组成划分为融雪产流、冻土条件下融雪、降雨产流和冻土条件降雨产流等3个阶段。多年平均状况下,白山流域融雪产流开始日期为3月28日,冻土条件产流开始日期为4月28日,融雪产流结束日期为5月20日,冻土消融日期为6月15日;多年平均状况下,融雪产流历时为28 d,冻土条件下融雪、降雨产流历时为26 d,冻土条件下降雨产流历时为24 d。以白山流域内3个气象站1960—2016年日降雨、温度、辐射和风速数据为影响因素,以白山水库日入库径流量(径流深)为目标变量,在融雪产流期(3月28日—5月20日)内,采用全局灵敏度分析法识别出日总辐射和平均风速无时滞效应、最低温度具有1 d的时滞效应、平均温度和最高温度具有2 d的滞后效应,继而识别出基于时滞的日总辐射、平均风速、平均温度和降水为融雪产流的关键影响因素;采用遗传算法拟合融雪产流经验公式,1960—2010年校准期内模拟精度较好,在径流系数小于等于1时和大于1时,拟合优度分别为97.1%和77.5%,平均相对误差为7.5%和22.5%,效率系数分别为96.8%和71.2%;在2011—2016验证期内,在径流系数小于等于1时和大于1时,拟合优度分别为99.3%和99.8%,平均相对误差分别为7.4%和16.8%,效率系数分别为97.8%和94.6%。     

Runoff and Sediment Yield Modelling for a Treated Hilly Watershed in Eastern Himalaya Using the Water Erosion Prediction Project Model

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model was calibrated and validated for a hilly watershed treated with graded bunding and water-harvesting tank in high rainfall condition of eastern Himalayan range in India. The performance of the model for the treated watershed was unacceptable with percent deviation of −45.81 and −38.35 respectively for runoff and sediment yield simulations when calibrated parameter values for the nearby untreated watershed were used. This was possibly due to differences in soil properties and average land slope. When soil parameters were calibrated for the treated watershed, the model performance improved remarkably. During calibration, the model simulated surface runoff and sediment yield with percent deviations equal to +6.24 and +9.02, and Nash–Sutcliffe simulation coefficients equal to 0.85 and 0.81, respectively. During validation period, the model simulated runoff and sediment yield with percent deviations equal to +8.56 and +9.36, and Nash–Sutcliffe simulation coefficients equal to 0.81 and 0.80, respectively. The model tended to slightly under-predict runoff and sediment yield of higher magnitudes. The model performance was quite sensitive to soil parameters namely, rill erodibility, interrill erodibility, hydraulic conductivity, critical shear stress and Manning’s roughness coefficient with varying levels. The WEPP model picked up the hydrology associated with bund and water-harvesting tank, and simulated runoff and sediment yield well with overall deviations within ±10% and Nash–Sutcliffe simulation coefficients >0.80. Simulation results indicate that in high slope and high rainfall conditions of eastern Himalayan region of India where vegetative measures are not adequate to restrict soil loss within the permissible limit, the WEPP model can be applied to formulate structure-based management strategies to control soil loss and to develop water resources.     

Chemical Evaluation of Ma’an Sewage Effluents and its Reuse in Irrigation Purposes

The present study investigates the chemical composition of Ma’an Wastewater Treatment Plant in south Jordan. Samples of effluent of this plant were collected over 1 year period. All samples were analyzed for pH, conductivity, major ions (Cl⁻, , , , , Na⁺, K⁺, Ca^2 + and Mg^2 +) and trace metals B, Fe, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb. The pH value ranges from 6.79 to 8.15 with a median value of 7.39 ± 0.32. The water quality was characterized by its high salinity hazard (C3) and low sodium hazard (S1) which can be considered as marginal for human consumption. Moreover, concentrations of trace metals in treated wastewater were found to be low and within guidelines for irrigation water due to low level of industrialization activities in the study area. Generally, the result of this study suggests that the treated wastewater is suitable for irrigational purposes, while these effluents can be considered as possible additional resources for irrigation in Jordan.     

PCJ River Basins’ Water Availability Caused by Water Diversion Scenarios to Supply Metropolitan Areas of São Paulo

A dynamic systems simulation model of water resources was developed as a tool to help analyze alternatives to water resources management for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí River Water Basins (RB-PCJ), and used to run six 50-year simulations from 2004 to 2054. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load by several consumers. Six runs were performed using a constant mean precipitation value, changing water supply and demand and different volumes diverted from RB-PCJ to RB-Alto Tietê. For the Business as Usual scenario, the Sustainability Index went from 0.44 in 2004 to 0.20 by 2054. The Water Sustainability Index changed from 74% in 2004 to 131% by 2054. The Falkenmark Index changed from 1,403 m³ person^− 1 year^− 1 in 2004 to 734 m³ person^− 1 year^− 1 by 2054. We concluded that sanitation is one of the major problems for the PCJ River Basins.     

Karst Spring Discharges Analysis in Relation to Drought Periods,Using the SPI

Based on the long hydrological time series, the correlation between karst spring discharge series and rainfall has been analysed, using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Analysis has been focused on the drought periods. Data come from a large karst system (Campania, Southern Italy), in an area characterised by a distribution of the precipitation prevalently during autumn-winter period. Insufficient recharge due to poor rainfall results in flat spring hydrographs (with no peak during spring season) that indicate a continuously decreasing discharge. Specifically, it has been found that 12 months cumulative rainfall, expressed by SPI₁₂, and spring discharge have similar trend. When SPI₁₂ will be equal or less that − 1, springs reduce the discharge, and a flat spring hydrograph will be produced when SPI reaches value less than − 1.5. In these cases, the prolonged shortage of accumulated rainfall causes a reduction in spring discharge also during the following year as well, pointing out a memory effect of the karst aquifer, and more complex rainfall–discharge relationship is observed.     

Groundwater Recharge Assessment for the Kalahari Catchment of North-eastern Namibia and North-western Botswana with a Regional-scale Water Balance Model

Groundwater is the only source of drinking water for the inhabitants of the Kalahari. Thus understanding spatial and temporal variations in groundwater recharge is very important and a regional-scale water balance model has therefore been set up for a 209,149 km² catchment in north-eastern Namibia and north-western Botswana. The model has a spatial resolution of 1.5 × 1.5 km, daily model time-steps, and climatic input parameters for 19 years are used. The distributed, GIS-based, process-oriented, physical water balance model (MODBIL) used in this study considers the major water balance components: precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, and surface runoff/interflow. Mean precipitation for the study area is 409 mm a⁻¹, while mean actual evapotranspiration is 402 mm a⁻¹ and mean groundwater recharge is 8 mm a⁻¹ (2% of mean annual precipitation). The recharge pattern is mainly influenced by the distribution of soil and vegetation units. Groundwater recharge shows a high inter- and intra-annual variability, but not only the sum of annual precipitation is important for the development of groundwater recharge; a large amount of precipitation in a relatively short period is more important. Published independent data from the Kalahari in Namibia, Botswana and the Southern African region under similar climatic conditions are used to verify the modelling results.