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1.
将分布式水文模型——SWAT模型应用于汾河(运城段)的径流模拟,以期为流域水资源管理、优化配置提供科学依据。首先,分析模型对研究区域的适用性,并在现有资料基础上对流域径流进行模拟研究,从时间、空间两个方面共同诠释了流域内径流与降水的关系;其次,根据流域未来气候可能变化,由增量情景法设定了不同气候情景,模拟未来气候情景下径流的变化趋势以及径流量的年内变化特征。结果表明:①研究区域内径流在时空分布上均与降水量分布吻合;②研究区域内径流量变化与气温变化呈负相关关系,与降水量变化呈正相关关系,且降水量变化对研究区域径流量产生的影响比温度变化产生的影响大;③径流量的年内分布呈季节性特点,汛期(7—10月份)最大,枯水期(11月至翌年3月份)最小;④未来气候变化趋势下,研究区域径流量将呈相应增加趋势,在气温升高0.5℃和降水量增加10%的情景下,河津水文站的径流量将增加1.29 亿m3。  相似文献   

2.
通过耦合SDSM统计降尺度模型和SWAT水文模型,探讨气候变化下东江流域的未来气候及其径流响应。首先基于SDSM模型,将2011—2099年HadCM3模式下A2和B2两种情景数据降尺度到东江流域各站点,生成未来气候要素(气温和降水);然后建立适用于东江流域的SWAT模型,并模拟该流域未来气候变化下的径流响应。结果表明:未来东江流域的气温、降水量和径流量均呈增加趋势;且A2情景下各气候水文要素的增加速度比B2情景下更快。研究结果可为东江流域的流域综合管理和水资源的可持续利用提供一定的科学依据。  相似文献   

3.
为了预测流域未来径流演变趋势,通过主分量分析、降尺度模型和SWAT模型,预测分析了流域在大气环流模型(GCMs)A2/B2气候情景下2010—2099年的日最高最低气温、日降水和月径流量。主分量分析提取大尺度下气候预测因子的主成分,降尺度模型利用提取的主成分预测站点的最高最低气温和降水,SWAT模型利用预测的站点数据计算未来径流量。结果表明,A2/B2两种气候情景下流域未来气温呈波动上升趋势,降水、径流均呈波动下降趋势,其中B2情景变化幅度大于A2情景。  相似文献   

4.
李建新  朱新军  于磊 《海河水利》2010,(5):46-49,54
海河流域水资源过度开发利用,已造成严重的水环境危机,实现流域水资源可持续利用显得尤为重要。针对海河流域,利用SWAT模型构建流域、子流域、县域不同层次的水文模型,根据过去、现状水资源水环境的变化过程,预测未来各种情景下的水资源水环境变化趋势,为流域、区域的水资源管理提供科学依据。  相似文献   

5.
本文通过分析比较认为,修正的PenmanMontieth模型用来模拟海滦河流域的蒸散发能力是一个比较好的方法.应用积分式(月)水量平衡模型对海滦河流域的水资源状况进行模拟和预测.表明,由于未来海滦河流域气温将升高12℃,降水增加1%,从而导致滦河流域的年径流量将减少253亿m3,减幅46%;海河北系流域的年径流量将减少368亿m3,减幅59%;海河南系流域的年径流量将减少628亿m3,减幅43%.海滦河全流域的年径流量将减少1249亿m3,减幅47%,其中山区将减少813亿m3,减幅41%,平原将减少436亿m3,减幅65%.密云水库的年来水量将减少062亿m3,减幅44%.官厅水库的年来水量将减少084亿m3,减幅44%.  相似文献   

6.
降水量是水文循环的重要因素。利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法,分析了1951—2010年海河流域降水量的历史演变规律;并根据大气环流数据分析了降水变化的原因;利用全球气候模式数据预测了未来降水量的可能变化情景。主要结论为:(1)1951—2010年,海河流域的年降水量呈显著减少趋势,达到了5%的显著性水平,其中夏季降水减少的幅度最大。(2)南方涛动指数(SOI)和海河流域降水具有较好的正相关,而太平洋年代波动(PDO)和太平洋年代内的波动(IPO)与海河流域降水具有较好的负相关。(3)在未来气候变化背景下,海河流域的年降水量和月降水量都将呈现出增加趋势;在A1B情景下,总体上流域东部降水量的增加幅度要大于流域西部。相关研究成果对于保障流域的水资源安全,支撑区域经济社会可持续发展,具有重要的科学价值和实际意义。  相似文献   

7.
利用全球气候模式输出结果,经统计降尺度模型降解后得到流域尺度的降水和气温要素,根据实测资料建立气温—蒸发回归关系以及新安江水文模型,使用耦合模拟和MK趋势分析评估未来气候变化情景下赣江流域水资源量的变化趋势和幅度。研究结果表明:未来不同排放情景下的年降水量、年蒸发量和年径流量等水文气候要素变化趋势以显著增加为主。未来年降水量、年蒸发量和年径流量的多年平均值相对基准期有较小幅度增加,最大增幅为年径流量的13.81%。降水、蒸发和径流的年内变化有明显的季节性特征,汛期径流增加、非汛期径流减少的不均匀情况加剧,在一定程度上可能增加赣江流域未来的防洪压力和枯水期供水压力。  相似文献   

8.
根据海河流域长系列水文气象资料,对流域内年径流量的演变趋势、突变特征和周期性规律进行分析,同时选取降水量和气温这两项重要的气候要素,建立海河流域年径流与降水、春夏气温的统计回归模型,计算未来A1B、A2和B1三种气候条件下的径流量,从而分析径流量对气候变化的响应。  相似文献   

9.
位于内陆的和田绿洲,其水资源主要来自上游山区,山地径流的变化将直接影响社会经济活动。基于此,对和田河流域上游1980—2015年的降水、温度、径流的变化趋势以及降水、温度对径流的影响进行分析,构建相应的soil and water assessment tool(SWAT)模型,结合气候模式对未来6种气候变化情景下的径流进行预测。结果表明:1980—2015年和田河流域上游年均气温和年降水的变化率分别为0.31 ℃/10 a和16.5 mm/10 a,均呈显著增加趋势,年径流也呈上升趋势;以2009—2011年为基准期,若和田河上游降水量分别增加12.5%、10%和减少10%,则其径流量将分别增加8.19%、6.45%和减少6.23%;若和田上游流域温度分别增加0.3 ℃、1 ℃和2 ℃,则和田河径流量将分别增加1.96%、7.74%和12.99%;预设的6种情景径流量均呈现增加趋势,其中2021—2030年HADG_RCP8.5情景下径流量最小,为51.25亿m3/a;2031—2040年,BCC_RCP4.5情景下径流量最小,为53.06亿m3/a。所得结果可以为当地水资源调配提供理论支撑。  相似文献   

10.
基于区域水平衡理论和SWAT模型,提出了分布式水收支平衡模型的构建思路及水收支平衡计算方法,对人类活动和未来气候变化情景下的沁河流域水收支平衡状况进行模拟,并通过皮尔逊相关系数和Mann-Kendall检验方法分析了水收支平衡的关键影响要素及其演变规律。结果表明:2010—2016年沁河流域蓄水总量呈下降趋势,降水量及出口径流量为沁河流域水收支平衡相对关键的影响要素;未来多气候情景下蓄水总量呈上升趋势,多年平均降水量及出口径流量两个关键影响要素的总体变化情况与辐射强迫水平呈正相关关系;典型气候情景SSP2-4.5下降水量及出口径流量在2037—2041年、2061—2063年可能存在突变。  相似文献   

11.
气候变化下黄河流域未来水资源趋势分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
开展流域水资源变化趋势研究是水资源规划和开发利用的基础工作。基于RCPs(Representative Concentration Pathways)排放情景下7个全球气候模式的气候情景资料,分析了黄河流域未来气温及降水的变化趋势;采用RCCC-WBM模型动态模拟了黄河流域未来水资源情势。结果表明:黄河流域在未来30年(2021—2050年)气温将持续显著升高(线性升率为0.24~0.35 ℃/(10 a));与基准期(1961—1990年)相比,流域降水总体可能增多,但对降水变化预估的不确定性较大;受气候变化影响,黄河流域未来水资源量较基准期的可能会略微偏少,流域水资源供需矛盾可能进一步加剧;不确定性及其带来的评估风险是目前及未来气候变化影响及水资源评估中需要加强研究的重要内容。  相似文献   

12.
This study begins with the premise that current reservoir management systems do not take into account the potential effects of climate change on optimal performance. This study suggests an approach in which multi-purpose reservoirs can adapt to climate change using optimal rule curves developed by an integrated water resources management system. The system has three modules: the Weather Generator model, the Hydrological Model, and the Differential Evolution Optimization Model. Two general circulation models (GCMs) are selected as examples of both dry and wet conditions to generate future climate scenarios. This study is using the Nakdong River basin in Korea as a case study, where water supply is provided from the reservoir system. Three different climate change conditions (historic, wet and dry) are investigated through the compilation of six 60 years long scenarios. The optimal rule curves for three multi-purpose reservoirs in the basin are developed for each scenario. The results indicate that although the rule curve for large-size reservoir is less sensitive to climate change, medium or small-size reservoirs are very sensitive to those changes. We further conclude that the large reservoir should be used to release more water, while small or medium-size reservoirs should store inflow to mitigate severe drought damages in the basin.  相似文献   

13.
在气候变化和人类活动影响下,内陆河流域出山径流变异程度提升,研究径流预测及其对气候变化响应具有理论和实践的双重意义。以讨赖河流域上游为研究区,采用Delta降尺度及权重集成方法对14种GCMs在3种RCP情景下的气温和降水进行优化,预测分析了该区未来径流变化和水资源供需平衡。结果表明:由气候-生态联合驱动的径流预测模式在讨赖河流域适用性良好,气温对出山径流总体呈负减效应,降水和NDVI表现为正增效应。未来气温和降水呈增加趋势,增温主要发生在河谷地带,降水增加在分水岭周边更为显著。流域出山径流总体增加,不同子区径流变幅从小到大依次为OL06<OL04<OL05<OL01<OL03<OL02。尽管未来出山径流有所增加,但从水资源满足度来看,平、枯水年讨赖河流域仍存在水资源短缺问题。  相似文献   

14.

This study was conducted in the upper Tagus River basin (UTRB), whose available water resources are partially transferred from the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs after local needs satisfaction to the Segura River basin using the Tagus-Segura water transfer (TSWT), the largest hydraulic infrastructure in Spain. This study evaluates the climate change impact on the TSWT by considering future evaporation rates and bathymetric changes in the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs. The findings of this study indicate a consistent decline in precipitation and an increase in temperature and evaporation under all climate impact scenarios. Consequently, inflows to the reservoirs will decline by 19% (RCP 4.5) and 53% (RCP 8.5) for 2070–2099, which could reduce water volumes that could be transferred to the Segura basin by more than 60%. The simulation of the TSWT operation rules, taking into account the impact of future evaporation and bathymetric changes, demonstrates an additional increase in reductions of water transfer of around 4%, which reveals the need to consider these effects in hydrological planning.

  相似文献   

15.
Climate change is one of the most important factors influencing the future of the world's environment. The most important impacts of climate change are changes in water supply and demand in different regions of the world. In this study, different climate change patterns in two RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios (RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway), were adopted for the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran, through weighting of GCMs (General Circulation Models). These climate change patterns are including ideal, medium, and critical patterns. Using the LARS-WG model (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), the outputs of the GCMs were downscaled statistically and the daily temperature and precipitation time series were generated from 2020 to 2044. Then, based on this information, the inflow volume into the Zayandeh-Rud Reservoir was predicted by the IHACRES model (Identification of unit Hydrograph and Component flows from Rainfall, Evaporation and Streamflow) and the agricultural water demand was also estimated based on future evapotranspiration. Finally, using GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) software, water resources in this basin were allocated based on the basic management scenario (B) and the water demand management scenario (D). The results showed that the average monthly temperature will increase by 0.6 to 1.3 °C under different climate change patterns. On the other hand, on the annual basis, precipitation will decrease by 6.5 to 31% and inflow volume to the Zayandeh-Rud Reservoir will decrease by 21 to 38%. The results also showed that the water shortages based on the baseline management scenario (B) will be between 334 and 805 MCM (Million Cubic Meters). These range of values varies between 252 and 787 MCM in the water demand management scenario (D). In general, the water shortage can be reduced in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin with water demand control, but complete resolution of this problem in this region requires more integrated strategies based on a sustainable development, such as a fundamental change in the cropping pattern, prevention of population growth and industrial development.  相似文献   

16.
Evaluating the impact of climate change at river basin level has become essential for proper management of the water resources. In the present study, Godavari River basin in India is taken as study area to project the monthly monsoon precipitation using statistical downscaling. The downscaling method used is a regression based downscaling termed as fuzzy clustering with multiple regression. Among the atmospheric variables simulated by global circulation/climate model (GCM) mean sea level pressure, specific humidity and 500 hPa geopotential height are used as predictors. 1o × 1o gridded rainfall data over Godavari river basin are collected from India Meteorological Department (IMD). A statistical relationship is established between the predictors and predictand (monsoon rainfall) to project the monsoon rainfall for the future using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) over IMD grid points under the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) scenarios of Fifth Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP 5). Downscaling procedure is applied to all 25 IMD grid points over the basin to find out the spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall for the future scenarios. For 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios results show an increasing trend. For scenario 8.5 rainfall showed a mixed trend with rainfall decreasing in the first thirty years of prediction and then increasing gradually over the next sixty years.  相似文献   

17.
Water resources allocation in a river basin is customarily determined based on long-term mean water availability. However, inter-annual variability of water resources caused by climate fluctuation should also be considered in order to keep an effective and flexible allocation policy. This paper analyzes the historical evolution of the water resources allocation system in the Yellow River basin of China. Based on the concept of water use flexible limit to water shortage and actual water use data from 1988–2006, a set of flexible limits to water shortage adapted to the Yellow River basin has been proposed. This includes total water use flexible limit to water shortage for all provinces, which is approximately 70%; and the different water use flexible limits to water shortage for each social sector, which are approximately 90% for agriculture, 85% for domestic use, and 50% for other industries. It offers a simple, yet effective, method for future water resources allocation in the Yellow River basin to achieve the optimal use of water resources. It likewise provides a beneficial reference for water resources management in the water deficient regions of China.  相似文献   

18.
Water conflicts appear when there are insufficient and less available water resources than water demands claimed by different agents. In this study, a new bankruptcy approach is investigated to resolve water conflicts in the Zarrinehroud River Basin, the largest and most important sub-basin of Lake Urmia’s Basin in the northwest of Iran. The new bankruptcy method is compared with the proportional rule (PRO) and another alternative based on the cessation of irrigated agriculture in the region proposed to supply and save environmentally in danger Lake Urmia. Four scenarios consisting of the current situation, optimistic, average and pessimistic scenarios regarding the future of water resources of the basin and agricultural developments were considered. According to the results, both bankruptcy rules helped Lake Urmia to receive more water, but neither could utterly overcome the water shortage of the Lake, so can be used as supplementary actions alongside other solutions. The cessation of irrigated agriculture throughout the basin overcame the average annual shortage of Lake Urmia in the first and second scenarios equal to 137 and 148 million cubic meters respectively. It showed disability to fully supply the lake in the third and fourth scenarios. These three methods must be combined with a social-economic policy like the purchase of decreased water allocations to farmers to be socially acceptable.  相似文献   

19.
Reservoirs often play an important role in mitigating water supply problems. However, the implications of climate change are not always considered in reservoir planning and management. This study aimed to address this challenge in the Alto Sabor watershed, northeast Portugal. The study analysed whether or not the shortage of water supply can be effectively addressed through the construction of a new reservoir (two-reservoir system) by considering future climate projections. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated against daily-observed discharge and reservoir volume, with a good agreement between model predictions and observations. Outputs from four General Circulation Models (GCM) for two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were statistically downscaled and bias-corrected with ground observations. A general increase in temperature is expected in the future while the change in precipitation is more uncertain as per the differences among climatic models. In general, annual precipitation would slightly decrease while seasonal changes would be more significant, with more precipitation in winter and much less in spring and summer. SWAT simulations suggest that the existence of two-reservoir will better solve the water supply problems under current climate conditions compared to a single-reservoir system. However in the future, the reliability of this solution will decrease, especially due to the variability of projections from the different climatic models. The solution to water supply problems in this region, adopted taking only present-day climate into account, will likely be inefficient for water supply management under future climate conditions.  相似文献   

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