水库汛限水位实时动态控制方案优选研究

水库汛限水位动态控制方案优选属多阶段多目标群决策过程,在水库调度中具有重要作用。针对水库汛限水位动态控制多目标的矛盾性,本文将基于协商对策的多目标群决策模型,应用于水库汛限水位实时动态控制方案优选,选取洪水资源利用率、保证率可靠度、调洪最高水位和最大下泄流量作为优选指标,并采用基于博弈论的组合赋权法将经验权重与数学权重融合,确定各指标权重。以大伙房水库为例,分析其汛限水位实时动态控制时,决策者不同偏好时的最优值。结果表明,采用该模型优选出的方案可以为决策者提供较为直观和合理的决策依据。     

水库汛限水位动态控制域风险分析及方案优选

针对负责下游防洪及发电任务的水库存在的静态汛限水位的弃水浪费、难以确定汛限水位动态控制域的风险分布、汛限水位动态控制域内不同起调水位的防洪兴利任务难以协调这三个动态控制问题,以预泄约束为基础,结合贝叶斯理论分析风险、模糊信息熵物元评价方法优选方案,得出高效且易被广泛应用的方案确定模型。以大渡河瀑布沟水库为例进行计算,确定瀑布沟水库汛限水位上限值为844. 7 m,并通过流域预报净雨的误差分布分析确定该水位是安全的。最后利用考虑权重后的风险率、增发电量、满发流量三个指标对不同起调水位的方案进行优选,确定844. 7 m的上限值为综合考虑后能够在保证原设计防洪标准的基础上提升经济效益的最优方案。该计算模型可用于指导水库的实时调度。     

大伙房水库汛限水位动态控制研究

为了充分利用汛期洪水资源,以大伙房水库为例进行了水库汛限水位动态控制研究。采用预蓄预泄法初步确定汛限水位动态控制范围的方案,然后计算各方案相应的风险和效益指标,最后采用模糊优选模型确定合理的汛限水位控制范围。结果表明:大伙房水库汛限水位动态控制的上限值为126.8 m,下限值为原设计汛限水位126.4 m,汛限水位动态控制的中值为126.6 m。     

多沙水库汛限水位实时动态控制方案研究

水库在汛期使用单一汛限水位有利于保障水库的防洪安全,却大大降低了调度的灵活性和发电效益。对于多沙水库,在进行汛限水位动态控制的研究时,也应对泥沙因素予以考虑。为制定合理的多沙水库汛限水位动态控制方案,先采用预泄能力约束法,基于一维非均匀流不平衡输沙模型,选定水库汛限水位分期动态控制的范围,而后依据汛限水位动态控制预蓄预泄的基本原理,拟定某多沙水库的汛限水位实时动态控制方案。结果表明:在保证防洪安全和冲沙调度的前提下,对水库实施汛期分期及汛限水位动态控制方案,能够有效地提高水库的兴利效益。     

云峰水库汛限水位动态控制决策支持系统设计与开发

阐述了汛限水位动态控制研究的必要性,以云峰水库为工程背景,在云峰水库汛限水位动态控制研究成果的基础上,采用先进的设计思想,设计开发了实时交互式汛限水位动态控制决策支持系统,为决策者提供了非常有效的决策工具.该系统的设计思想对其他水库的汛限水位动态控制决策也有较好的参考价值.     

实时汛限水位动态控制方法研究

很多研究表明,汛限水位动态控制是协调水库调度中防洪和兴利间关系的有效方法,但大多集中于研究汛限水位控制域的确定,很少有文献针对汛限水位动态控制的核心—实时汛限水位动态控制进行研究。本文提出了一种实时汛限水位动态控制的方法,该方法首先利用24 h分类降雨预报作为判别指标,然后依据水文预报结果和水库的泄流能力计算控制水位、泄流量等具体指标。文中将该方法用于碧流河水库“19960810”场次洪水的调度中,结果表明,该方法能保证汛限水位动态控制的有效性,可以用做实时汛限水位动态控制的实施方法。     

水库汛限水位动态控制研究进展与发展趋势

回顾国内外水库汛限水位动态控制研究的最新进展,从汛限水位动态控制理论研究和库群研究两方面进行综述。水库汛限水位动态控制理论研究主要针对预蓄过程汛限水位实时动态控制值和预泄过程汛限水位实时动态控制值、预报信息可利用准则3个方面,从理论上定量地给出汛限水位实时动态控制值以及预报信息可利用范围。阐述水库群汛限水位动态控制4个研究内容的研究进展,并系统评述了汛限水位动态控制域的确定方法和实时动态控制的方法,介绍了各方法的主要思想及其适用条件。针对水库汛限水位动态控制的研究现状及存在的问题,提出未来应重点研究的3个方面:(1)水库群预报信息可利用分析理论;(2)水库群汛限水位动态控制全过程风险分析理论与方法体系;(3)复杂水库群系统汛限水位动态控制理论。     

水库汛限水位动态控制研究

本文研究的汛限水位动态控制即为发掘水库潜能,促使洪水资源化、提高水资源利用率的有效方法之一.在分析我国水资源形势的基础上,汛限水位动态控制是在我国特殊国情国策下具有中国特色的产物,先确定某水库的汛限水位动态控制范围,然后用“实时预蓄预泄法”对水库汛限水位进行动态控制实例研究.     

基于降水预报信息的棉花滩水库汛限水位动态控制模型

为了提高汛期洪水资源的利用率,对棉花滩水库进行了汛限水位动态控制研究。从汛限水位动态控制条件、历次洪水预报误差等方面分析棉花滩水库实施动态控制的可行性。以2010年复核的汛限水位为基础,基于实时预蓄预泄方法,根据流域的短期降水预报信息、面临时刻水情信息、工情和灾情信息,结合洪水预报,确定适用于棉花滩水库的预蓄预泄调度模型,制定水库汛限水位实时动态控制方案,并进行相应的风险分析及效益计算。此方案在不降低原设计防洪标准的前提下,可增加水库蓄水量与发电效益。     

对水库汛限水位动态控制风险分析的认识

水库汛限水位动态控制是缓解水库防洪与兴利矛盾的主要措施之一,水库汛限水位动态控制风险评估结果直接影响到水库汛限水位动态控制方案的选取。本文提出了水库汛限水位动态控制风险的概念,阐述了汛限水位动态控制风险评估的主要内容和进行风险分析计算采用的主要计算方法,提出了汛限水位动态控制风险评估的指标体系。     

Multi-Person Multiobjective Fuzzy Decision-Making Model for Reservoir Flood Control Operation

By analyzing the present situation of reservoir flood control operation, this paper proposes multi-person multiobjective decision-making model for the problems of flood control operation. The model takes the influence of multiobjectives and experience and knowledge of decision-makers into account. In order to find an optimal alternative decided by multiple decision-makers from all the given alternatives, the relative optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative is first obtained and then the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative is obtained which collects group preferences through two stages. The advantages of this model are simple and more adaptable to the practical problem. The model is demonstrated by application in Fengman Reservoir located in Songhua River Basin in China. Of course, this method can also be applied in other science fields.     

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Purposes of Groundwater Control System Design

The best way for an engineer or scientist to express their knowledge, experience and opinions is day-to-day verbal communication. When a decision needs to be made about an optimal groundwater control system, the decision-making criteria need not always be numerical values. If fuzzy logic is used in multi-criteria decision-making, the criteria are described by linguistic variables that can be represented through fuzzy membership and expert judgment is used to describe such a system. Prior hydrodynamic modeling of the aquifer regime defines the management scenarios for groundwater control and provides an indication of their effectiveness. In this paper, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is applied to deal with a trending decision problem such as the selection of the optimal groundwater management system. Linguistic variables are used to evaluate all the criteria and sub-criteria that influence the final decision and the numerical weights of each alternative are determined by mathematical calculations. The paper presents a part of the algorithm – fuzzy optimization in hydrodynamic analysis, which leads to the selection of the optimal groundwater control system. The proposed method is applied in a real case study of an open-cast mine.     

基于熵权的水库防洪调度多目标决策方法及应用

文通过引入熵权的概念，将其与模糊优选模型相结合进行防洪调度多方案优选，同时针对由熵值转换为熵权的计算式在某些条件下不适用这一问题，对熵权的计算式进行了改进。本模型基于熵值能反映数据本身的信息效用原理计算指标的熵权，并与主观权重线性组合，兼顾主观偏好与客观属性，可得到合理的方案优属度。实例验证结果表明，此方法简便可行。     

Flood Control Operations Based on the Theory of Variable Fuzzy Sets

Flood control decisions are often involved with quantitative and qualitative criteria. In this paper, a decision model is presented for flood control operations based on the theory of variable fuzzy sets. Using dual comparison, two models computing relative membership grades with qualitative and quantitative criteria are established, respectively. A method integrating subjective preference and iterative weights is proposed for weight-assessment. First, an initial solution of criteria weights is obtained by using proposed fuzzy optimal iteration model. Then, according to their knowledge related to real time flood operations, operators may modify the initial weights if necessary. When the relative membership grades of alternatives belonging to all rankings are fixed by using multi-criterion variable fuzzy model proposed, the decision alternative is chosen according to the ranking characteristic value computed using a defuzzification equation. The case study of Fengman Reservoir flood operation (in China) is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method. With the incorporation of operator’s knowledge related to flood operations, the proposed model is flexible and practical.     

A new approach to aid urban water management decision making using trade-off sacrifice modelled by fuzzy logic.

An approach to aid decision making for urban water management is presented that is based on the concept of trade-off sacrifice level in pairwise comparisons between criteria, modelled using fuzzy logic. This approach is illustrated by a case study - selection of alternative water supplies for a Sydney household. Four key decision making criteria covering health, economic, environment and technical aspects are selected: annual probability of infection, life cycle energy use, life cycle cost and reliability. The decision making problem is to select between cases with different volume and application of recycled greywater and rainwater in light of the four criteria. Decision maker's preference is expressed by five levels of trade-off sacrifice between pairs of criteria. The decision makers can assign their preferences for sacrifice level by linguistic assessment and the output trade-off weight (TOW). Measures of decision makers' perceived trade-off level are modelled by a rule-based fuzzy logic control system. The final analysis shows the performance for each sacrifice class for each case, to aid overall decision making with stakeholders.     

Site Selection of Different Irrigation Systems Using an Analytical Hierarchy Process Integrated with GIS in a Semi-Arid Region

Site selection of different irrigation systems can lead to higher water productivity in drought conditions. The present study intends to evaluate suitable regions along the Izeh plain (Iran) for different pressurized and gravitational irrigation systems using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on Geographic Information System (GIS). To that end, a variety of inputs such as climate, topography, skilled labor and system costs, etc. were identified and classified into two main categories of socio-economic and environmental criteria. Each criterion was subdivided into several criteria to make the site selection more specific. A matrix of the pair-wise comparison was, in turn, used to compare these criteria and sub-criteria, and to evaluate them based on their relative importance based on the region’s suitability for different irrigation system alternatives. Geographical layers were then obtained for each sub-criterion to select the most suitable sites for different irrigation systems in the study area. Pressurized irrigation systems including wheel move irrigation system, drip irrigation system and solid-set sprinkler irrigation system, together with gravitational irrigation systems consisting of surface irrigation system, and low-pressure irrigation system were considered as irrigation system alternatives during the site selection process in this study. The result map of site selection for different alternatives showed that surface irrigation, drip irrigation and low pressure systems were the best irrigation system alternatives for the region studied.

     

A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making Model Based on Weighted Borda Scoring Method for Watershed Ecological Risk Management: a Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China

In watershed ecological risk management, a series of alternatives will be analyzed in terms of multiple complex criteria, and different stakeholders with conflicting risk attitudes will be involved, which means that ecological risk management decision-making is a process surrounded by a wide range of uncertainties derived from scarcity of data, lack of knowledge, deficiency of assumptions and lexical vagueness. Based on modified Borda scoring method, this paper discusses how to apply a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making (FMCGDM) model into such a process. Then, a two-stage, 12-step MCDM methodology is proposed to obtain the optimal alternative decided by multiple decision-makers (DMs) from a given alternatives set. Firstly, all DMs make their own independent choice respectively, then, all the independent conclusions are integrated by using their subjective/objective weights. A modified Borda method is followed to rate and rank the weighted alternatives; in which the one with the highest score will be selected as the final preferable option. This model is demonstrated to be applicable and reliable by an application in the ecological risk decision making process of Three Gorges Reservoir area located in the upper reaches of Yangtze River in China. Of course, this method can also be applied in other research fields of environmental management.     

蓄滞洪区洪水调度优化研究

针对洪水调度中影响因素众多且有不确定性因素的特点 , 引入多目标模糊优选理论和方法 , 建立了蓄滞洪区洪水调度方案模糊优选模型。并将此模型应用于实际洪水调度中,有效地解决了受确定性因素和不确定性因素影响的蓄滞洪区洪水调度方案的多目标优化决策问题。     

防洪效益计算方法探讨

简述了防洪效益的特点，对现有防洪效益计算方法进行了较深入的探讨。研究表明，如能选出代表性较好县有一定长度的典型系列年，年系列法是正确计算防洪效益的有效方法；频率法的很大不足是难以采用动态方法计算多年平均防洪效益，它只能给出防洪工程的静态效益指标；最优等效替代措施法、保险费法及稳定生产增长法不能作为计算防洪效益的合理可行方法。文中还对正确计算防洪效益的几个关键问题（包括采用什么价格、动态与静态方法的     

基于水资源多维属性的总量控制浅析

随着经济社会的快速发展,水资源与经济社会、生态环境的关系越来越密切,其多维属性也日趋明显。基于水资源多维属性的总量调控是最严格水资源管理的重要方向,也是我国水资源问题研究的一种新思路。现在水资源五维属性特征分析、五维量化指标和评价准则等研究的基础上,提出了基于水资源多维调控的总量控制分析思路,包括控制指标的选取及总量控制策略和总量控制方案的制定。并以海河流域为例进行了分析,证明了该方法的可行性,并为海河流域的水资源综合管理提供了有力支撑。