无资料地区洪水预报参数估计

以广州市流溪河流域内流溪河水库、黄龙带水库、和龙水库等9个水库子流域为研究对象,根据已知出库流量及库容曲线反推入库流量,基于三水源新安江模型进行洪水预报。假定芙蓉嶂水库为无资料地区,根据气象预报及其余8个子流域的流域特征值进行参数移植,建立流域特征值和敏感性参数的多元回归方程,对比分析距离相近法、面积相似法、参数平均法与多元回归法的参数移植结果,发现多元回归法移植效果较好,预报结果达到乙级精度。     

基于相似流域法的SWAT模型模拟黄河中游无资料地区径流

选用黄河中游两个小流域,基于相似流域法探求分布式水文模型SWAT在黄河中游小流域无资料地区径流模拟的适用性。通过距离、流域面积相近及属性相似的方法,用已知流域率定参数移植到无资料流域进行径流模拟。选取2009-2013年的日径流与月径流进行模型率定,以效率系数(NS)和决定系数(R2)为评价指标,率定出4个模型敏感系数,并用2014-2016年的日径流与月径流进行模型验证。结果显示:率定期月径流模拟的R2为0. 76,NS为0. 70;日径流模拟的R2为0. 70,NS为0. 64;验证期月径流模拟的R2为0. 82,NS为0. 74;日径流模拟的R2为0. 78,NS为0. 68。说明基于相似流域法的SWAT模型对于无资料的小流域月径流量模拟具有很好的适用性。     

基于聚类分析的水文相似流域研究

在洪水预警预报中,一些中小流域常常由于水文资料短缺造成分析计算困难。随着流域下垫面地形、植被、土壤等数据的大量获取和数据挖掘技术的不断发展,应用聚类分析等无指导学习方法对流域下垫面大量数据进行分析,根据对象之间距离最近的原则对流域进行分组,得到水文相似流域,从而将有水文资料流域的水文参数应用于水文资料短缺的相似流域,使洪水预报得以实现。选取浙江省118个具有20年以上雨水情资料的流域进行研究,采用流域长度、流域宽度、河长、河流比降、流域平均坡度、流域形状系数、多年平均1,3,6和12 h面最大降水等10个指标,应用主成分分析对数据进行降维,进而对流域进行聚类分析,将浙江省流域分为23个相似组。在分组基础上,选取其中两组中径流资料大于20年的站点进行多年平均最大洪峰、洪量比对,验证水文相似流域分类合理性。结果表明相似流域组内年最大洪峰、年最大平均1,3,6和12 h洪量具有较大相似性,分类较为合理,从统计学角度为浙江省的洪水预警预报提供新的理论与思路。     

暴雨资料推算设计洪水及参证流域校核方法研究

对于无资料地区的设计洪水是利用附近雨量站的降雨资料进行推算,为检验结论的正确性,可以利用有径流资料的相近或相似流域进行校核。本文用一实例阐述这种推算和验证方法。     

石羊河流域面雨量预报方法研究

利用1996-2008年ECMWF数值预报格点场资料和石羊河流域内6个气象站降水资料、2007-2008年47个加密自动区域站降水资料,采用Press准则进行预报因子初选,用逐步回归方法进行预报因子精选,运用最优子集回归建立石羊河流各县区域冷、暖季1～7 d降水量预报方程。以各县区降水客观预报产品为基础,采用线性插值方法,将县区降水预报插值到各县区内的区域站点上,使用算术平均法,制作了石羊河流域1～7 d面雨量预报模式。面雨量预报模式投入业务试应用,预报能力较强,取得了较好的预报服务效果,为流域面雨量预报提供了客观有效的指导产品。     

基于参数移植法的无资料地区洪水预报分析

以浑河上游清原下水库流域为研究对象,探究了参数移植法在无资料地区洪水预报的适用情况。选取了清原下水库附近的南口前流域为建模区,构建了新安江模型,并选取流域内11场洪水资料,利用SCE-UA算法进行参数率定,最后再将参数移植到了研究区流域,结果显示模型预报精度达到乙级,说明参数移植法在无资料地区洪水预报的适用性。     

基于不同相似度方法的秦岭北麓典型流域相似度研究

为了更准确地进行流域相似识别,为无资料流域寻找合适的参证流域来估算其水资源状况。以陕西省西安市秦岭北麓5个典型流域为研究对象,通过提取其气候、下垫面和径流三方面的9个特征因子,结合变异系数法赋权,采用加权余弦相似度和加权欧氏距离相似度分别计算流域之间的相似度,再采用新安江模型进行参数移植验证。结果表明：加权余弦相似度准确性优于加权欧氏距离相似度,较适宜于研究流域的相似度计算。研究成果可为该地区的径流量估算和水资源开发利用等提供科学参考。     

潘家口水库枯水期月径流预报

在分析研究流域气候特征及枯季径流来水规律的基础上，用水文气象方法和水文方法分别建立了枯水期月径流预报模型。水文气象方法是先挑选出与预报对象关系最好的气象因子作为预报因子，据此建立预报模型和预报集成模型。水文方法是利用水文序列资料建立自回归模型和多元递推模型。用实测资料对预报模型进行了验证，结果表明：预报精度令人满意。     

API模型在中小河流预报方案编制中的应用

四川省共在325条河流上新建水文、位站和雨量站,中小河流域水文站网建设基本完成,从而更好的掌握整个流域水文情况。针对防洪减灾要求,在这些水文、位站建立流域体系预报非常必要。建立流域体系预报需从中小河流水文、位站开始进行预报演算,从中小河流预报演算到大江大河,形成流域体系预报,因此必须在中小河流建立预报方案。以典型暴雨区荥经河为例,通过在荥经河荥经水文站建立预报方案,运用荥经河流域已有资料(无资料项目借用相似流域资料),采用API模型对洪水进行预报演算,取得良好效果。因此在中小河流预报方案编制过程中可以加以推广使用。     

组合因子回归-综合相似长期预报方法及应用

500 hPa格点资料是长期水文气象预报中的重要资料之一.采用回归-综合相似分析方法,从500 hPa高度场上挑选出关键区因子,对因子的组合方法加以改进,并结合综合相似分析方法应用于瀑布沟水电站工程施工期长期水文气象预报.以石棉站7月最高水位预报为例,详细介绍了应用北半球500 hPa格点资料进行相关普查、持续性和稳定性检验、组合因子改进及回归、综合相似分析及综合预报等过程.此方法预报效果好,值得推广.     

无测站流域径流预测区域化方法研究进展

无测站流域径流预测是地表水文研究的难题与挑战,而区域化方法,即将水文信息从有测站流域移植至无测站或缺测站流域估算径流量的过程,则为该问题提供了有效的解决办法。由于不同流域地文属性及气候特征各不相同,目前并无通用的方法,回归法、空间近似法及物理相似法是径流预测区域化研究中最常用的三种方法。基于此,本文阐明了三种方法的基本理论,综述了其研究进展、适用性及局限性,分析了区域化研究中常用水文模型及流域特征因子遴选的依据,总结了误差检验及不确定性分析的方法,并展望了径流预测区域化研究的未来发展方向。本文可为无测站流域区域化方法的选择提供基本依据与科学参考。     

Regional Models for the Estimation of Streamflow Series in Ungauged Basins

The assessment of water resources in a region usually must cope with a general lack of data, both in time (short observed series) as well as in space (ungauged basins). Such a lack of data is generally overcome by combining rainfall–runoff models with regionalization techniques in order to transfer information to sites without or with short available observed series. The present paper aims to analyze applicability and limitations of two regionalization procedures for estimating the parameters of simple rainfall–runoff models respectively based on a “two-step” and on a “one-step” approach, for the estimation of monthly streamflow series in ungauged basins. In particular, an application to a Sicilian river basin of multiple regression equations according to a “two-step” and a “one-step” approaches and of a “one-step” approach based on neural networks is reported. For the investigated region, results indicate that models based on the “one-step” approach appear to be robust and adequate for estimating the streamflows in ungauged basins.     

Estimation of Design Flood Hydrograph for an Ungauged Watershed

Based on the physiographical features of the studied watershed of 102.5 km² in northern Ontario and the meteorological data of one nearby climatic station, through the combination of the regionalization of flood and the HEC-1 modeling, this article presents an approach that may be used to determine the desired peak flows for the ungauged watershed. The empirical equations used to determine the desired peak flows were developed by the Cumming Cockburn Ltd. (CCL) who has carried out the studies on flood regionalization by using flow data at 380 gauging stations in Ontario. CCL has proposed four methods to estimate peak flows, namely 1) regression method describing multiple linear relationships between flood flow and related parameters; 2) index flood frequency curve; 3) regional flood frequency curve and 4) isoline map for unit peak flow. The desired peak flows for studied watershed determined by CCL methods were used to calibrate the HEC-1 model for the rainfall-runoff simulation for this watershed which consists of 15 subwatersheds. Through slight adjustment in the CN number used in the HEC-1 model, the calibrated HEC-1 model could be used for rainfall-runoff simulation for this ungauged watershed. This approach could be recommended for hydrological design and watershed management for ungauged watersheds provided the analyses of flood regionalization could be conducted. In addition, comparing to the Bavaria forest region, Germany, some questions have been discussed in this article.     

生态河岸带功能区划的定性与定量研究

生态河岸带功能区划是河流功能区划的重要组成部分,合理的功能区划有利于保护河岸带、河流以及整个流域的生态,有利于生态河岸带资源的合理开发利用,使其发挥最佳的效率,同时生态河岸带的功能区划也是生态河岸带管理的基础。生态河岸带是一个特殊区划,它包括很多类型的功能区。在纵向上,生态河岸带可以划分为近岸水域、河滨区域、近岸陆域等3个一级功能区;在横向上,它又可分为自然保护区、治理保护区、资源开发利用区以及特定功能区等4个一级功能区。为了较为精确地划分各功能区,必须对其进行定量区划。主要采用聚类分析法,先后经过确定分区指标、数据的标准化、确定分区指标权重系数、计算相似系数、构造谱系图等步骤,最终形成较为精确、合理的功能区划。     

The Accuracy and Reliability of Traditional Surface Flow Type Mapping: Is it Time for a New Method of Characterizing Physical River Habitat?

Surface flow types (SFTs) are advocated as ecologically relevant hydraulic units, often mapped visually from the bankside to characterize rapidly the physical habitat of rivers. SFT mapping is simple, non‐invasive and cost‐efficient. However, it is also qualitative, subjective and plagued by difficulties in recording accurately the spatial extent of SFT units. Quantitative validation of the underlying physical habitat parameters is often lacking and does not consistently differentiate between SFTs. Here, we investigate explicitly the accuracy, reliability and statistical separability of traditionally mapped SFTs as indicators of physical habitat, using independent, hydraulic and topographic data collected during three surveys of a c. 50 m reach of the River Arrow, Warwickshire, England. We also explore the potential of a novel remote sensing approach, comprising a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) and structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry (SfM), as an alternative method of physical habitat characterization. Our key findings indicate that SFT mapping accuracy is highly variable, with overall mapping accuracy not exceeding 74%. Results from analysis of similarity tests found that strong differences did not exist between all SFT pairs. This leads us to question the suitability of SFTs for characterizing physical habitat for river science and management applications. In contrast, the sUAS–SfM approach provided high resolution, spatially continuous, spatially explicit, quantitative measurements of water depth and point cloud roughness at the microscale (spatial scales ≤1 m). Such data are acquired rapidly, inexpensively and provide new opportunities for examining the heterogeneity of physical habitat over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Whilst continued refinement of the sUAS–SfM approach is required, we propose that this method offers an opportunity to move away from broad, mesoscale classifications of physical habitat (spatial scales 10–100 m) and towards continuous, quantitative measurements of the continuum of hydraulic and geomorphic conditions, which actually exists at the microscale. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

输水渠道冰盖增厚物理模型试验相似律研究

随着南水北调中线工程冰期输水相关问题研究的深入,理论研究成果亟需物理模型试验和原型观测数据的支持和验证,由于原型观测难度较大,且影响因素不可控,物理模型试验方法成为解决冰水力学问题的有效途径。现在国内外学者开展冰水力学模型试验的成果基础上,结合冰水力学理论研究成果,对以冻结模型冰为试验材料的输水渠道冰盖增厚物理模型试验相似律展开研究,并通过物理模型试验进行了验证。研究表明:冰凌下潜临界流速的比尺为λ0.5,水力加厚冰盖沉积厚度的比尺为λ,均遵循重力相似准则;对于力学加厚冰盖,由于冰凌黏结力不遵循重力相似准则,结冰期需设法控制黏结力;融冰期可按照重力相似准则设计,但需控制环境温度在结冰点以上,以减小冰凌间的黏结力;因此输水渠道冰盖增厚物理模型试验宜采用冻结模型冰为试验对象,试验应按照重力相似准则进行设计。     

A physical,movable-bed model for non-uniform sediment transport,fluvial erosion and bank failure in rivers

Sediment transport processes in rivers continue to pose a challenge when designing movable-bed physical models, particularly for reproducing the grain sorting and bank erosion (fluvial erosion and mass failure). This paper presents and discusses scale effects of a specific scaling approach for multi-grain size mixtures that preserves similarity of initial motion for each grain size class and of the bank stability coefficient between the model and the prototype, but relaxes strict similarity of the Shields and particle Reynolds numbers. This approach is appropriate when bed load transport near incipient motion conditions is being studied, and allows for larger grain size scales than when full Shields parameter similarity is enforced. As part of an environmental project to rehabilitate sediment transport through bank erosion, this method has been applied to scale a Froude number criterion physical model of a reach of the Old Rhine (France). This has resulted in an undistorted scale of 40, and the use of sand as the model bank material. Each grain size has a different geometrical scale. The time scale for sediment motion is grain size and flow discharge dependent. An average time scale of 6 has therefore been used (four model hours = one prototype day). A strategy devised for the field case consists of two higher, larger island groynes that replace the three existing groynes, producing bank erosion for flow rates below the mean annual flow rate. Extrapolation of model behaviour to the prototype is not a major problem, but the volume of eroded bank material may be underestimated, mainly because of the relaxation of the Shields number similarity and the apparent cohesive properties of the model bank material.     

Development of spatial similarity‐based modelling to improve integrated lake water quality management in Malaysia

This study describes similarity‐based modelling techniques used to develop a spatially based water quality prediction model to facilitate sustainable lake water quality management. The lentic nature of lakes allows them to slowly absorb pollutants over a long period of time with readily noticeable signs, causing symptoms to appear only when the water quality has significantly degraded, meaning the risk of improper water quality management can be very high. Thus, failure to establish sustainable planning at the watershed scale was found to be a major threat of water quality degradation, from extemporary approaches often practised in lake management. Accordingly, the developed model is tailored for lakes facing moderate to serious water quality data limitation. The geodatabase integrates the identified driving factors of physical, social and water quality with significant influences on the status of lake water quality. A 1 km buffer radius with percentages of built‐up area, population, lake surface area and rainfall is measured. Calculation of a water quality index was then quantified on the basis of a similarity‐modelling technique. Lake Putrajaya was chosen as a control point for developing the indicator index. A total of 93 recreational lakes within Selangor and Kuala Lumpur were selected as modelling points. The results of this study indicated the similarity technique of spatial modelling is sufficiently reliable to be applied as an early assessment indicator. From the 93 lakes in this study, none feel in the category of either “bad” or “excellent,” with the majority being in class 3 (medium water quality status) and only four considered as having a good water quality condition. The balance of 35 lakes was considered to exhibit poor water quality. The model output is an indicator index, providing classification guidelines for the water quality status of the assessed lake as an early assessment tools.     

Regional Drought Modes in Iran Using the SPI: The Effect of Time Scale and Spatial Resolution

In the present paper, regional drought modes in Iran are identified applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Varimax rotation to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on different time scales. Data used include gridded monthly precipitation covering the period 1951–2007 retrieved from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) archive with different spatial resolutions (2.5, 1 and 0.5° resolution). The objective of the study is twofold: (i) Investigate the stability of drought spatial modes as a function of the SPI time scales used for monitoring the different kinds of drought, (ii) Evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of gridded data on drought regionalization. For the coarse spatial resolution of 2.5°, results show four drought modes of distinct variability, which remain quite stable when the SPI time scale is varied from 1- to 24-month. Differently, for higher spatial resolutions drought modes appear more sensitive to the index time scale and become less spatially homogeneous as the time scale is increased. Moreover, the number of identified modes (sub-regions) may reduce to three or two, but in all cases the most well defined sub-region appears to be the southern one. This suggests that both the spatial resolution of precipitation data and the time scale may affect drought regionalization, i.e. the number of drought modes and their spatial homogeneity.     

Integrating Ground-based Observations and Radar Data Into Gridding Sub-daily Precipitation

A new and general approach is proposed for interpolating 6-h precipitation series over large spatial areas. The outputs are useful for distributed hydrological modelling and studies of flooding. We apply our approach to large-scale data, measured between 2014 and 2016 at 159 weather stations network of Meteo Romania, using weather radar information and local topography as ancillary data. Novelty of our approach is in systematic development of a statistical model underlying the interpolation. Seven methods have been tested for the interpolation of the 6-h precipitation measurements: four regression methods (linear regression via ordinary least squares (OLS), with and without logarithmic transformation, and two models of generalized additive model (GAM) class, with logarithmic and identity links), and three regression-kriging models (one uses semivariogram fitted separately every 6-h, based on the residuals of the GAM with identity links models, and other two with pooled semivariograms, based on the OLS and GAM with identity links models). The prediction accuracy of the spatial interpolation methods was evaluated on a part of the dataset not used in the model-fitting stage. Due to the good results in interpolating sub-daily precipitation, normal general additive model with identity link followed with kriging of residuals with kriging parameters estimated from pooled semivariograms was applied to construct the final 6-h precipitation maps (PRK-NGAM). The final results of this work are the 6-h precipitation gridded datasets available in high spatial resolution (1000 m?×?1000 m), together with their estimated accuracy.