GM(1,1)模型在宝鸡峡灌区干旱预测中的应用

根据宝鸡峡灌区1981-2003的年降水资料建立了GM(1,1)模型,并依据建立的残差GM(1,1)模型对原模型进行修正.经用2004年灌区降水资料验证,证明了模型预测结果的精确性、合理性.对灌区2008～2016年可能发生干旱 的年份进行预测,结果表明,2008年、2012年、2016年将发生干旱.     

GM(1,1)改进模型在年径流量预测上的应用

背景值是影响灰色模型预测精度的关键性因素之一,GM(1,1)改进模型是在对背景值进行优化的基础上建立的灰色模型。通过对研究区年均径流量资料进行分析,根据径流量和时间的关系,建立了GM(1,1)改进模型,并将其应用于年径流量的预测,取得了较好的效果。     

柳林泉流量动态模拟及衰减原因分析

以柳林泉域泉流量及降水量的系列资料为基础,分别建立了基于灰色理论的GM(1,1)模型、GM(1,1)残差周期修正模型和不同方案下的多元线性回归模型,模拟预测了泉流量动态,并对泉流量衰减原因进行了分析。结果表明:残差周期修正后的GM(1,1)模型优于多元线性回归模型;还原泉流量下的回归模型较实测泉流量下的回归模型拟合误差大但预测误差小;柳林泉流量的衰减过程分为两个阶段,1990年以前大气降水减少是泉流量衰减的主要原因,1990年以后泉流量的衰减则是大气降水减少和人工开采量增大共同作用所致。     

GM(1,1)、GM(1,N)联合模型在建筑物沉降预测中的应用

鉴于GM(1,N)模型预测精度高及GM(1,1)所需统计数据数量少的优点,通过自相关理论,把GM(1,1)和GM(1,N)两者有机结合形成一个联合模型,以进一步提高灰色模型的预测精度.该文在沉降资料的基础上,利用该联合模型对南京-泵站的沉降进行了分析预报,其结果与回归模型和GM(1,1)模型进行了比较,最后得出了基于自相关理论的GM(1,1)、GM(1,N)联合预测模型,其精度可靠,可信度高,预报结果也与实际情况相吻合,从而证明了该方法在实际工程中的可行性.     

灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在需水量预测中的应用研究

文章针对常规GM(1,1)模型存在的缺陷,建立了灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)需水量预测模型。并运用该模型对锡林郭勒盟2015～2020年需水量进行了预测。结果表明,预测结果合理、可靠,模型预测误差较小、精度较高。该模型具有简捷实用、预测精度高等优点,为需水量预测提供了新的方法。     

改进GM(1,1)模型在中长期径流预测中的应用

针对基本GM(1,1)模型的一些不足,将x(1)的第n个分量作为灰色微分模型的初始条件,并采用粒子群优化算法率定模型参数,改进了基本GM(1,1)模型,并将其应用于中长期年径流量预测中。结果表明:改进GM(1,1)模型具有较高的模拟精度,可以用于年径流量预测;与基本GM(1,1)模型相比,改进GM(1,1)模型预测结果的相对误差较小,说明改进GM(1,1)模型是合理的,且在中长期年径流量预测中的应用效果良好。     

不同改进灰色模型在广西年用水量预测中的应用研究

以广西全区2005-2014年的年用水量资料作为建模数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行预测研究。为了提高预测精度,分别对传统灰色GM(1,1)模型进行了不同方式的改进,通过比较发现4种灰色模型的预测结果均较理想,平均精度达到了99.5%。其中传统灰色GM(1,1)模型为99.0%、函数变换改进的灰色模型为99.4%、残差修正后的灰色模型为99.7%、经弱化算子处理后的灰色模型为99.9%,同时也充分验证了灰色模型在广西年用水量预测中的可靠性。     

基于提升小波优化模型在大坝位移预测中的应用

针对传统建模主观性造成的精度影响以及预测数据的噪声干扰,提出了基于提升小波的系统优化GM(1,1)模型.该模型可有效剔除监测信息的噪声分量,减小预测误差,同时根据最小二乘原理提出了以GM(1,1)的一次累加生成建模序列所有分量的拟合误差平方和最小为约束条件,建立了优化GM(1,1)预测模型的最优初始值.对某大坝位移监测信息进行了计算,相对传统GM(1,1)模型而言,优化GM(1,1)模型可明显提高预测精度.     

基于等维新息GM(1,1)模型的城市需水量预测

该文针对传统GM(1,1)模型当系统增长速度较快时可能出现较大误差的弱点,提出了等维新息GM(1,1)模型,并对阿克苏市2001~2005年的需水量进行了预测。结果表明:等维新息GM(1,1)模型预测精度较高,平均相对误差较小,可用于城市的年用水量预测。     

基于灰色理论的预应力锚索抗滑桩预应力损失预测分析

运用灰色理论对预应力锚索抗滑桩预应力监测数据进行分析,建立GM(1,1)模型和改进的GM(1,1)模型,对锚索预应力变化进行预测。GM(1,1)模型与改进的GM(1,1)模型预测结果与实际监测结果均吻合良好,均能够达到合格的标准,并且改进的GM(1,1)模型比GM(1,1)模型计算精度要高。基于灰色理论的预应力锚索抗滑桩预应力损失预测是可行而实用的,具有较高的可靠性,灰色预测较为客观地反映了工程实际情况,对边坡稳定的预测预报有一定的参考价值。     

Call for Papers

正As the eldest and most distributed professional journal of water industry,Water Wastewater Engineering(W WE)gained very wide acceptance from the colleagues working in this field in this country since start publication in 1964.Now it is administrated by the Ministry of Construction of the People’s Republic of China and sponsored by the China Civil Engineering Society etc.     

库水波动下库岸边坡地下水浸润线解析解及误差分析

解析法是库岸边坡地下水浸润线计算中便于实际应用的方法,但该方法须基于若干假定并对潜水运动基本方程线性化后才能求解。针对各假定和线性化过程建立不同的地下水渗流数学模型,用解析法和有限元法解答上述数学模型,分析各误差大小及其规律。结果表明：库岸垂直处理带来的误差要小于方程线性化处理和不考虑非饱和渗流带来的误差,而且它们都随渗透系数变大而减小;在三峡库区库水调度情况下,假定库水位等速变化带来的误差对大多岸坡而言可以忽略;计算库岸边坡地下水浸润线时,解析法只适用于水位变化幅度相比含水层厚度较小,且几何边界规则、岩土结构简单、岩土体渗透性较好时的情况。     

Changes in Summer Irrigated Crop Area and Water Use in Southeastern Turkey from 1993 to 2002: Implications for Current and Future Water Resources

Changes in summer irrigated cropland acreage and related water use are estimated from satellite remote sensing and ancillary data in semi-arid Southeastern Turkey where traditionally dry agricultural lands are being rapidly transformed into irrigated fields with the help of water from the Euphrates-Tigris Rivers. An image classification methodology based on thresholding of Landsat NDVI images from the peak summer period reveals that the total area of summer irrigated crops has increased three-fold (from 35,000 ha to over 100,000) in the Harran Plain between 1993 and 2002. Coupled analysis of annual irrigated crop area from remote sensing and potential evapotranspiration based estimates of irrigation water requirements for cotton indicate a corresponding increase in agricultural water use from about 370 million cubic meters to over one billion cubic meters, a volume in accordance with the state estimates. These estimates have important implications for understanding the rapid changes in current agricultural withdrawals in Southeastern Turkey and form a quantitative basis for exploring the changes in future water demands in the region. For example, expansion of irrigated lands have led to a steady decrease in potential evaporation due to increased roughness and decreased humidity deficit in the Harran Plain. Assuming that the changes in future evaporation conditions will be of similar nature, water use for irrigation is expected to decrease over 40 percent in future irrigation sites. Incorporating this decrease in overall planning of the irrigation projects currently under construction should lead to improved management, and by extension, sustainability of water resources in the region.     

浅谈优化Vray渲染在制作三维场景的应用研究

用Vray三维渲染引擎来渲染三维场景,其质量和速度是由一些影响因素和参数设置决定的,不同的参数和因素,可以得出不同的三维渲染效果.因此,分析、优化三维渲染质量和速度的影响因素,正确、合理的选择参数对提高Vray最后渲染阶段的质量和速度非常重要.     

固结、渗流和沉积控制方程研究

本文从两相流体动力学的守恒方程出发，考虑固相、液相的相对运动，推导了可以考虑场的不均匀性和流体压缩性的统一形式的控制方程，并对方程所基于的物理概念和相互联系进行了必要的分析。通过对方程适当形式的表达，可导出用于大、小变形固结、渗流和沉积的简化方程，显示了在不同领域的三个理论存在一定的统一性。方程推导过程并未对本构关系加以限制，适用范围较广。依据实际问题的要求，作了不同形式的简化。     

四川省及重庆市中型水电站效益分析

该文分析了四川省及重庆市几座中型水电站的调查材料表明：四川省及重庆市中型水电站不仅在川渝主网和地方电网中起着很大的作用，并具有巨大的社会效益，同时还有综合利用效益，说明修建中型水电站的优越性．     

Site modelling methods for detecting hydrologic alteration of flood frequency and flood duration in the floodplain below the carlyle dam,lower Kaskaskia River,Illinois, USA

Reports concerning the influence of dams on river hydrology vary among researchers, interest groups and government agencies. These often contradicting statements may occur because changes in hydrology caused by dams are distinct for each dam and river watershed. The objective of this research was to use site specific techniques to determine if the 1967 installation of the Carlyle Dam, lower Kaskaskia River, Illinois, altered flood frequency and duration within the forested floodplain located below the dam. Results indicated a decrease in flood duration and frequency, and a decrease in annual flood frequency variation at a site 6.4 km below the dam. Pre‐dam versus post‐dam differences in flood frequency and duration at the site 32.2 km below the dam were related to climate rather than dam effects. Although dam impacts are a concern, this research shows that distance downstream from the dam and downstream tributary and watershed characteristics should be considered before assuming that the dam has changed hydrologic parameters for portions of rivers. This research also indicates that areas of the lower Kaskaskia River may still maintain hydrologic ecological integrity, and could be targeted for restoration and adaptive management purposes. Hydrologic modelling combined with river gage and on‐site well measurement techniques presented in this study could provide detailed flood frequency and duration information for land use, sociological and geomorphological questions in focus areas within river floodplains. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical tools for thermal regime characterization at segment river scale: Case study of the Ste‐Marguerite River

Suitable thermal fish habitats are constrained by both maximum and minimum temperature tolerances. A multivariate and geostatistical approach was developed to estimate stream thermal characteristics at the river segment scale. Data from 22 temperature‐monitoring stations during summer 2007 were used to estimate monthly maximum temperature as well as thermal characteristics such as the number of events, the cumulative degree–days and the associated duration over specific temperature thresholds of 19 and 21°C. The probability of exceeding these temperature thresholds has also been interpolated. The methodology relies on the construction of a multivariate space using physiographic and hydrological characteristics of gauging stations as inputs in a canonical correlation analysis (CCA). A geostatistical interpolation technique, ordinary kriging, was subsequently used to perform interpolation in the physiographical space constructed using CCA. Results from this study were obtained for thermal characteristics estimated into two different interpolation spaces: (1) a 7 metrics space, and (2) an 8 metrics space. Cross‐validation technique has been performed and satisfactory results were obtained. Kriging thermal characteristics (magnitude and duration) into the 7 metric space for a 19°C threshold exceedance leads to best results with Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE) ranging between 9.66 and 15.08%. The study shows that kriging in a multivariate space is a promising tool for water resources managers, especially in cases where risk mapping for lethal or sub‐lethal temperature thresholds may be required for a specific fish species. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

掺MgO混凝土的宏细观试验研究

利用MgO膨胀剂的延迟微膨胀效应能显著提高大体积混凝土的力学性能,产生的预压应力还能有效提高大体积混凝土抵抗温度开裂的能力,但目前对其微观机理研究不多。采用宏观与微观相结合的方式,研究了不同活性指数、不同掺量的MgO混凝土的力学性能,利用SEM/EDS微观分析手段揭示了MgO对混凝土性能影响的作用机理。试验结果表明：MgO取代部分水泥掺入混凝土中,混凝土的力学性能降低;掺量为4%~5%时,活性指数为100s的MgO混凝土的膨胀率大于活性指数为50 s的MgO混凝土;MgO混凝土的膨胀特性与Ca,Si,Mg,Al等元素的分布情况有关,掺入的MgO将改变界面区Ca,Si,Mg元素的富集特性,Ca元素和Mg元素更易于在界面区富集,导致混凝土宏观力学性能的降低。     

基于MIDAS软件探讨施工工序对深基坑稳定性的影响

基于武汉地铁名都站深基坑工程与水文地质勘察资料,建立了三维工程地质仿真计算模型。依据名都站深基坑开挖支护方案,利用有限元软件MIDAS的摩尔-库仑本构模型,对武汉地铁名都站深基坑施工过程中,不同施工工序下每步开挖之后,基坑的变形情况做仿真模拟计算,并对比分析其对基坑稳定性的影响。结果表明：基坑围护结构的变形情况与施工工序有很大的关系,施工工序越合理,上部土体变形越小,反之越大。因此,在基坑工程的施工过程中,要注重施工步骤的划分与合理安排,从而保证基坑工程的安全。研究成果为以后武汉地区基坑工程的施工设计提供了值得借鉴的经验。