Impacts of climate change on groundwater in the Great Lakes Basin: A review

Climate change has the potential to alter the physical and chemical properties of water in the Great Lakes Basin, in turn impacting ecological function. This study synthesizes existing research associated with the potential effects of a changing climate on the quality and quantity of groundwater in the Great Lakes Basin. It includes analyses of impacts on (1) recharge, (2) groundwater storage, (3) discharge and groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions, (4) exacerbating future urban development impacts on groundwater, (5) groundwater quality, and (6) ecohydrology.Large spatial and temporal (i.e., seasonal) variability in groundwater response to climate change between regions is anticipated. Most studies combine field observations with modelling, but many have focused only on small/medium basins. At these small scales, groundwater systems are generally projected to be fairly resilient to climate change impacts. However, modelling studies of larger basins (e.g., Grand River, Saginaw Bay, Maumee River) predict an increase in groundwater storage. Uncertainty in model simulations, particularly from climate models that are used to force hydrological models, is a major challenge. There have been too few studies to date that investigate the interplay of climate change and groundwater quality in the Great Lakes Basin to draw conclusions about future groundwater quality and ecohydrology.A summary of methods, models, and technology is provided. Model uncertainty has become an increasingly important topic and is also discussed. The study concludes with a synthesis of the main science needs to understand groundwater impacts in order to adapt to a changing climate in the Great Lakes Basin.     

A decision support tool for measuring and tracking the social benefits of water resources in Michigan coastal communities

This Research Study was conducted to demonstrate and measure social wellbeing in Michigan coastal communities resulting from investments in local water-related projects and resource development that can lead to community vibrancy and to provide a model for communities throughout Michigan and the Great Lakes Basin. The primary goal of the study was to develop and implement an online Community Vibrancy Dashboard that would assist planners, decision makers, business leaders, and residents in defining, reviewing, and tracking community vibrancy. The study was supported by the Michigan Office of the Great Lakes under the 2016 Michigan Water Strategy and funded through the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative.Four coastal communities in Michigan – Alpena, Manistee, Port Huron, and Sault Ste. Marie – participated in the study. These communities were selected because of their long economic and cultural histories with the Great Lakes, all are similar in size, and all have conducted relatively recent water-related resource restoration projects and were willing to participate.This study demonstrates how community engagement can result in measurable social indicators of community vibrancy that focus on the use of and connectedness to water resources in the Great Lakes Region. The study resulted in an innovative online visualization toolkit that provides opportunities for public review of local water projects and their resultant contributions to community vibrancy. The Community Vibrancy Dashboard provides timely and visible feedback to local leaders, planners, and decision makers on past and future projects and a means of tracking progress in meeting community vibrancy goals.     

Goals,beneficiaries, and indicators of waterfront revitalization in Great Lakes Areas of Concern and coastal communities

Cleanup of Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) restores environmental benefits to waterfront communities and is an essential condition for revitalization. We define waterfront revitalization as policies or actions in terrestrial waterfront or adjacent aquatic areas that promote improvements in human socioeconomic well-being while protecting or improving the natural capital (the stocks of natural assets, biodiversity) that underlies all environmental, social, and economic benefits. Except for economic measures such as development investments, visitation rates, or commercial activity, evidence of waterfront revitalization in the Great Lakes is mostly anecdotal. We offer a perspective on waterfront revitalization that links indicators and metrics of sustainable revitalization to community goals and human beneficiaries. We compiled environmental, social, economic, and governance indicators and metrics of revitalization, many of which are based on or inspired by Great Lakes AOC case studies and community revitilization or sustainability plans. We highlight the role of indicators in avoiding unintended consequences of revitalization including environmental degradation and social inequity. Revitalization indicators can be used in planning for comparing alternative designs, and to track restoration progress. The relevancy of specific indicators and metrics will always depend on the local context.     

Nearshore Community Characteristics Related to Shoreline Properties in the Great Lakes

Successful protection and restoration of Great Lakes nearshore ecosystems will likely rely on management of terrestrial resources along Great Lakes shorelines. However, relationships between biological communities and changing shoreline environmental properties are poorly understood. We sought to begin understanding the potential roles of shoreline geomorphological and land cover properties in structuring nearshore biological communities in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Despite high variability in densities (benthic macroinvertebrates and zooplankton) and catch per unit effort (CPUE, shallow water and nearshore fish) within and among lake areas, several biological community patterns emerged to suggest that nearshore aquatic communities respond to shoreline features via the influences of these features on nearshore substrate composition and stability. Benthic macroinvertebrate densities were not different between shoreline types, although they were generally lower at nearshore sites with less stable substrates. Shallow water fish CPUE and zooplankton densities were generally lower for nearshore areas adjacent to developed mid-bluff shorelines and sites characterized by less stable substrates. Larger fish CPUE appeared to be unresponsive to local shoreline and substrate properties of nearshore zones. The emergence of these patterns despite significant ecological differences among lake areas (e.g., productivity, community composition, etc.) suggests that shoreline development may have comparable influences on nearshore ecosystems throughout the Great Lakes, providing a terrestrialbased indicator of relative nearshore biological and ecological integrity.     

Assessing the impacts of light synthetic crude oil on microbial communities within Laurentian Great Lakes’ sediment habitats

The ability of microbial communities to respond to and degrade crude oil in marine environments is well understood, yet fewer studies have examined freshwater environments. The Laurentian Great Lakes are one of the world’s largest surface freshwater sources. A pipeline that transports light synthetic crude oil crosses between two of the Great Lakes (the Straits of Mackinac, connecting Lakes Michigan and Huron, U.S.A.), and there is uncertainty on how the various habitats within this region would respond to accidental crude oil exposure. In this study, sediment microbial communities from three distinct habitats (coastal beach, freshwater coastal wetland, and Lake Michigan deep sediments) were used in microcosm experiments to document their community response (16S rRNA gene sequencing) to light synthetic crude oil (headspace gas chromatography). Microbial community structure (beta diversity) was impacted after exposure to crude oil in each of the habitats examined, with each habitat showing a different level of resistance to crude oil. Additionally, within each habitat, beta diversity distinguished sub-communities that increased in abundance in experimental treatments. Specifically, an increase in total abundance of Alphaproteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, or Gammaproteobacteria was observed in microcosms exposed to crude oil regardless of habitat type. Methane, a potential hydrocarbon degradation byproduct, was observed in the headspace of the microcosms after exposure to crude oil, which may indicate methanogenic hydrocarbon degradation. These data suggest Great Lakes freshwater microbial communities will respond differently to crude oil exposure but may have shared community members involved in resisting and degrading light synthetic crude oil.     

Multiscale relationships between Great Lakes nearshore fish communities and anthropogenic shoreline factors

The multi-scale nature of streams, rivers, and inland lakes is well documented, although relationships between the ecology of Great Lakes nearshore areas and shoreline processes are generally poorly described. Given the high levels of development pressure currently exerted on Great Lakes shorelines, we sought to determine whether patterns exist between measures of shoreline development quantified at multiple spatial scales and adjacent fish community measures. We expected that fish measures for nearshore areas immediately adjacent to intact versus modified shorelines would differ as a result of the greater buffering capacity of the intact shorelines. Further, we expected anthropogenic shoreline factors to act cumulatively in combination with prevailing currents to influence fish communities in downdrift nearshore areas. Our results indicated that a few shallow water and nearshore fish community measures exhibited significant patterns that may be attributable to immediately adjacent shoreline characteristics. In addition, several fish measures were related to urban-residential land uses and shore structure numbers of updrift shoreline areas, suggesting that cumulative anthropogenic factors operating over larger spatial scales also influence local fish communities. Based on these results, we argue that there is critical need for multi-scale management strategies for shorelines that address the potential for both local and cumulative, larger-scale environmental impacts relative to local nearshore biota.     

An appraisal of policy implementation deficits in the Great Lakes

Understanding of the complexities of both public policy implementation and Great Lakes restoration has grown in sophistication since the 1970s. The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement is the principal policy for reversing environmental decline in the region. Implementation of this and related policies, particularly by the federal governments, suffers from acute and chronic deficits that we summarily document. These policy implementation deficits will continue to frustrate efforts to revitalize the Great Lakes unless significant advances are made to design governance processes within the Great Lakes regime that accommodate the complexity of linked social and ecological systems. The 2010-2011 governmental process to renegotiate the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement is a potent opportunity to begin to overcome institutional barriers to reducing policy deficits. We argue that the renegotiation must begin a reinvestment in remaking or reimagining Great Lakes institutions in a way that restores capacity, flexibility, and moral authority. Our purpose is to help provide a foundation for that discussion.     

Water depth and lake-wide water level fluctuation influence on α- and β-diversity of coastal wetland fish communities

Coastal wetlands in the Laurentian Great Lakes are critical habitats for supporting fish diversity and abundance within the basin. Insight into the coupling of biodiversity patterns with habitat conditions may elucidate mechanisms shaping diverse communities. Within coastal wetlands, water depth as well as fluctuations in lake-wide water levels over inter-annual timescales, both have the potential to influence fish communities. Water level fluctuation can influence fish habitat structure (e.g., vegetation) in Great Lakes coastal wetlands, but it is unclear how water depth and lake-wide water level fluctuations affect fish community composition and diversity. Using β dissimilarity indices and multivariate ordination techniques, we assessed fish community structure among bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus)-dominated wetlands in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, USA. We examined whether community structure was related to wetland water depth at the time of sampling and whether fish communities were more similar among years with similar Lake Huron water levels. Results suggested relatively high levels of both spatial (among wetlands) and temporal (among year) community dissimilarity that was driven primarily by species turnover. Thus, variability in water depths among wetlands and in Lake Huron water levels among years likely both contribute to regional fish diversity. Further, fish abundance and alpha diversity were positively correlated with wetland water depth at the time of sampling. Both climate change and anthropogenic water level stabilization may alter the magnitude and timing of water level fluctuations in the Great Lakes. Our data suggest that these changes could affect local fish community composition and regional fish diversity.     

Diversity of river fishes influenced by habitat heterogeneity across hydrogeomorphic divisions

Freshwater fish communities are structured through complex interactions among multiple spatial scales. Efforts to conserve and rehabilitate fish communities in riverine systems can benefit from an understanding of how processes across spatial scales influence species diversity patterns. We assessed species diversity at different hierarchical spatial scales and changes in species composition along the longitudinal gradient of the Niobrara River basin, Great Plains, USA. We assessed the contribution of α‐ and β‐diversity components to γ‐diversity at five spatial scales (i.e., mesohabitat, site, reach, segment, and river) using an additive partitioning approach. The observed mean β‐diversity was significantly greater than expected at the site, reach, and segment spatial scales. The most significant difference between expected and observed β‐diversity occurred at the segment spatial scale and suggests differences in community structure along the Niobrara River. Additive partitioning of diversity components provided a framework with which to assess patterns at multiple hierarchical levels. Our results suggest that changes in channel geomorphic and hydrologic conditions provide the impetus for species sorting resulting in unique fish assemblages along the Niobrara River. Conservation of species diversity for Great Plains fishes and other similar systems will likely benefit from considering species filtering processes at multiple spatial scales and maintaining intact hydrologic regimes across unique geomorphic boundaries.     

Influence of lake levels on water extent,interspersion, and marsh birds in Great Lakes coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands in the Laurentian Great Lakes undergo frequent, sometimes dramatic, physical changes at varying spatial and temporal scales. Changes in lake levels and the juxtaposition of vegetation and open water greatly influence biota that use coastal wetlands. Several regional studies have shown that changes in vegetation and lake levels lead to predictable changes in the composition of coastal wetland bird communities. We report new findings of wetland bird community changes at a broader scale, covering the entire Great Lakes basin. Our results indicate that water extent and interspersion increased in coastal wetlands across the Great Lakes between low (2013) and high (2018) lake-level years, although variation in the magnitude of change occurred within and among lakes. Increases in water extent and interspersion resulted in a general increase in marsh-obligate and marsh-facultative bird species richness. Species like American bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), common gallinule (Gallinula galeata), American coot (Fulica americana), sora (Porzana carolina), Virginia rail (Rallus limicola), and pied-billed grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) were significantly more abundant during high water years. Lakes Huron and Michigan showed the greatest increase in water extent and interspersion among the five Great Lakes while Lake Michigan showed the greatest increase in marsh-obligate bird species richness. These results reinforce the idea that effective management, restoration, and assessment of wetlands must account for fluctuations in lake levels. Although high lake levels generally provide the most favorable conditions for wetland bird species, variation in lake levels and bird species assemblages create ecosystems that are both spatially and temporally dynamic.     

The benthic community of the Laurentian Great Lakes: Analysis of spatial gradients and temporal trends from 1998 to 2014

We used the results of seventeen years of Great Lakes benthic monitoring conducted by the U.S. EPA's Great Lakes National Program Office to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of benthic communities, assess their status, trends, and main drivers, and to infer the potential impact of these community changes on ecosystem functioning. Benthic abundance and diversity were higher at shallow (<70?m in depth) stations with chlorophyll concentrations above 3?μg/L than at deeper sites (<1?μg/L). We infer that lake productivity, measured by chlorophyll was likely the major driver of benthic abundance and diversity across lakes. Consequently, benthic diversity and abundance were the highest in the most productive Lake Erie, followed by lakes Ontario, Michigan, Huron, and Superior. Multivariate analysis distinguished three major communities shared among lakes (littoral, sublittoral, and profundal) that differed in species composition and abundance, functional group diversity, and tolerance to organic pollution. Analysis of temporal trends revealed that the largest changes occurred in profundal communities, apparent in significant shifts in dominant taxa across all lakes except Lake Superior. In lakes Michigan, Huron, and Ontario, the former dominant Diporeia was replaced with Dreissena and Oligochaeta. Profundal species, with the exception of dreissenids, became less abundant, and their depth distribution has shifted. In contrast, density and diversity of native littoral and sublittoral communities increased. The invasion of dreissenids was among the most important drivers of changes in benthic communities. Continued monitoring is critical for tracking unprecedented changes occurring in the Great Lakes ecosystem.     

Molecular characterization of bacterial communities associated with sediments in the Laurentian Great Lakes

The Laurentian Great Lakes freshwater ecosystem comprises a series of interconnected lakes exhibiting wide spatial differences in hydrogeochemistry, productivity, and allochthonous inputs of nutrients and xenobiotics. Bacterial communities associated with offshore sediments in this ecosystem have been rarely studied. We evaluated bacterial communities associated with sediments from 10 locations in four of the five Great Lakes (Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, and Ontario) by generating16S rRNA pyrosequence libraries. Pyrosequencing analysis revealed the presence of 26 bacterial phyla and proteobacterial classes among Great Lakes sediment samples. Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, and Gammaproteobacteria were the most abundant groups of bacteria. Redundancy analysis was used to examine the role of sediment properties, including depth and chemical composition, in shaping bacterial community structure. One sample from Lake Huron was distinctly different from all other samples. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the sample contained greater abundances of groups of bacteria associated with polluted environments. This study constitutes the most extensive examination of bacteria associated with Laurentian Great Lakes sediments and sheds useful insight into the microbial ecology of the Great Lakes.     

Stewardship after delisting: Sustaining long-term progress in Michigan’s Areas of Concern

The Michigan Areas of Concern (AOC) program has made significant progress in recent years following the influx of external funding from the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative and the Great Lakes Legacy Act. However, as more AOCs near delisting, community members from Michigan Public Advisory Councils (PACs) are concerned that the loss of programmatic funding will constrain their ability to sustain key public engagement and long-term restoration progress. In order to understand the local community perspectives surrounding delisting, our study presents findings and recommendations that emerged from interviews with Michigan PAC members. We found that PACs recognize the need to transition away from projects with a short-term focus and instead prioritize longer-term, holistic strategies that could help catalyze effective public engagement and produce transformative community revitalization. This study’s recommendations for the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) include: (1) dedicating more time to post-delisting planning, (2) enhancing communication efforts with PACs, and (3) strengthening long-term public engagement efforts and PAC organizational capacity. These recommendations add to the growing literature supporting the value of local community perspectives and social dimensions of environmental restoration and may also provide transferable insights to communities outside of Michigan that are currently engaged in similar complex, multi-stakeholder environmental restoration projects.     

The 2017 African Great Lakes Conference: Conservation and development in a changing climate

In May 2017, the African Great Lakes community convened for a region-wide conference in Entebbe, Uganda. The African Great Lakes Conference (AGLC) focused on 6 regionally-important themes, and 300+ attendees presented over 100 talks and posters. The AGLC culminated in the adoption of a set of Conference Resolutions designed to direct the future of African Great Lakes conservation and management. As an Introduction to this Journal of Great Lakes Research special section on African Great Lakes, we report on the impetus for the African Great Lakes Conference as well as discuss three major advances and investments that were a direct result of conference resolutions adopted at the meeting. First, we present the AGLC Resolutions, a set of management issues and solutions developed at the conference. Second, we discuss the African Great Lakes Conference Fund, a conservation fund that has awarded $500,000 USD to launch four new initiatives. Finally, we describe African Great Lakes Inform, a knowledge management platform designed to promote collaboration in the region. The AGLC in general, and these three major conference outcomes specifically, provide a set of basic building blocks to advance partnerships, research and capacity in the African Great Lakes region.     

Tweeting the Laurentian Great Lakes: A community opinion analysis about Great Lakes areas as assessed through mentions on Twitter

Accounting for community opinions of environmental restoration is critical both for planning and evaluating these initiatives. While considerable research assesses the value of restoration through economic metrics focusing on expenditures or preferences for ecosystem services, these metrics may not adequately account for the sociocultural services that ecosystems provide communities, such as mental and physical health or recreational opportunities. To address this challenge, we explored the use of social media data to assess online discourse communities’ opinions about ecosystem services through a case study of Twitter mentions of sites targeted for restoration through the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI). While there is evidence of the economic and ecological benefits of GLRI, little is known about how these benefits at sites targeted for funding are perceived by the public. From April through October 2019, we collected 40,000 tweets that mentioned an Area of Concern or a Great Lakes National Park that received GLRI funding. We used a mixed-methodological approach combining tweet content and sentiment analysis to determine themes of discussion and characterize online discourse communities’ opinions around these topics. Half of all tweets were about one of three Areas of Concern, and recreation was the most discussed theme with an overall positive sentiment. A metric accounting for the number of tweets and the sentiment of tweets was derived to understand community opinions of restoration at these areas. Our findings demonstrate the potential of social media data mining as a tool for examining online conversations about and engagement with the Great Lakes.     

Spatial and temporal scales of variability of cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms from NOAA GLERL airborne hyperspectral imagery

NOAA GLERL has routinely flown a hyperspectral imager to detect cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) over the Great Lakes since 2015. Three consecutive years of hyperspectral imagery over the Great Lakes warn drinking water intake managers of the presence of cyanoHABs. Western basin imagery of Lake Erie contributes to a weekly report to the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency using the cyanobacteria index (CI) as an indicator of the presence of cyanoHABs. The CI is also used for the weekly NOAA NCCOS cyanoHAB Lake Erie bulletin applied to satellite data. To date, there has not been a sensor comparison to look at the variability between the satellite and hyperspectral imagery on a pixel-by-pixel basis, as well as a time scale comparison between measurements from buoys and shipboard surveys. The spatial scale is a measure of size of a cyanobacteria bloom on a scale of meters to kilometers. The change in the spatial scale or spatial variability has been quantified from satellite and airborne imagery using a decorrelation scale analysis to find the point at which the values are not changing or are not correlated with each other. The decorrelation scales were also applied to the buoy and shipboard survey data to look at temporal scales or changes in time on hourly to daytime scales for blue-green algae, chlorophyll and temperature. These scales are valuable for ecosystem modelers and for those initiating sampling efforts to optimize sampling plans and to infer a potential mechanism in an observational study from a synoptic viewpoint.     

Extreme water level rise across the upper Laurentian Great Lakes region: Citizen science documentation 2010–2020

As the global water balance accelerates in a warming climate, extreme fluctuations in the water levels of lakes and aquifers are anticipated, with biogeochemical, ecological and water supply consequences. However, it is unclear how site-specific factors, such as location, morphometry and hydrology, will modulate these impacts on regional spatial scales. Here, we report water level time series collected by citizen scientists for 15 diverse inland lakes in the upper Laurentian Great Lakes region from 2010 to 2020, and we compare these time series with those for the two largest Great Lakes, Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron. Combined with historical data (1942–2010), the findings indicate that lakes spanning seven orders of magnitude in size (10^?2 to 10⁵ km²) all rebounded from record low to record high water levels during the recent decade. They suggest coherent water level oscillations among regional lakes (large and small) implying a common, near-decadal, climatic driver that may be changing.     

Using wavelet analysis to detect changes in water temperature regimes at multiple scales: effects of multi‐purpose dams in the Willamette River basin

Maintaining the natural complexity of water temperature regimes is a key to maintaining diverse biological communities. Insect communities, food webs, and fish respond to the magnitude and duration of water temperature fluctuations. Disruption of these natural patterns has the potential to alter physiological processes, behavioural adaptations, and community structure and dynamics. We analysed multiple >300‐day time series of water temperature from the Willamette River basin, Oregon, to assess the impact of large multi‐purpose dams on water temperature variability at temporal scales ranging from 1 to 32 days, short temporal scales that are commonly ignored. We applied wavelet analysis to quantify the variability of water temperature at multiple temporal scales simultaneously. We compared water temperature regimes above and below dams and before and after dam construction. The advantages of wavelet analysis are the ability to examine all temporal scales simultaneously and independently as well as the ability to preserve the temporal context of the wavelet coefficients. We were able to detect significant (p < 0.0001) reductions in water temperature variability, defined as the variability of the wavelet coefficients, as a result of dams at the 1‐, 2‐, 4‐, and 8‐day scales. There were no significant differences in water temperature variability between managed and natural flows at the 16‐ and 32‐day scale (p = 0.80). In addition to the well‐documented effects of dams on seasonal patterns in water temperature or on water temperature extremes, our results demonstrate that dams have significantly muted the small temporal scale variance in water temperature patterns to which many organisms may have been adapted. Conserving or restoring natural temperature patterns in rivers will require attention to these small‐scale complexities. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the health of lake whitefish populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes: Lessons learned and research recommendations

Although lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes have rebounded remarkably from the low abundance levels of the 1960s and 1970s, recent declines in fish growth rates and body condition have raised concerns about the future sustainability of these populations. Because of the ecological, economic, and cultural importance of lake whitefish, a variety of research projects in the Great Lakes have recently been conducted to better understand how populations may be affected by reductions in growth and condition. Based upon our participation in projects intended to establish linkages between reductions in growth and condition and important population demographic attributes (natural mortality and recruitment potential), we offer the following recommendations for future studies meant to assess the health of Laurentian Great Lakes lake whitefish populations: (1) broaden the spatial coverage of comparative studies of demographic rates and fish health; (2) combine large-scale field studies with direct experimentation; (3) conduct multi-disciplinary evaluation of stocks; (4) conduct analyses at finer spatial and temporal scales; (5) quantify stock intermixing and examine how intermixing affects harvest policy performance on individual stocks; (6) examine the role of movement in explaining seasonal fluctuations of disease and pathogen infection and transmission; (7) evaluate sampling protocols for collecting individuals for pathological and compositional examination; (8) quantify sea lamprey-induced mortality; and (9) enact long-term monitoring programs of stock health.