月水量平衡模型在中国不同气候区的应用

概念性水文模型是目前评价环境变化对区域水文水资源影响的有力工具,大尺度水文模拟是气候变化影响评价中的关键技术.利用10个位于我国不同气候区的代表性流域的水文气象资料.验证了月水量平衡模型在不同气候区的应用效果.结果表明:月水量平衡模型能够适用于我国不同气候区的月流量过程模拟,其中,对湿润半湿润地区的模拟精度好于干旱半干旱地区的模拟效果;若流域内降水径流量关系密切,则水文模拟的效果也会较好.人类活动的影响,使得长序列水文模拟误差增大,但不同人类活动类型对流域水文模拟效果的影响是不同的.     

水文多尺度仿真在雨量站网密度研究中的应用

从水文多尺度仿真的角度研究雨量站网密度问题,构建了水文多尺度仿真模型族和水文多尺度仿真系统.应用中国梅雨雨量站网实验区的雨量站资料,在水文多尺度仿真系统平台上,以抽站法和水文模拟法相结合,采用多水文模型族进行雨量站网密度研究.研究认为在流量相对误差和确定性系数两项指标都比较稳定的情况下,站网密度与水文模型、服务目标具有密切的关系.在湿润地区和时间尺度为日的条件下,分布式水文模型要求流域具有高密度的雨量站网布局,站网密度应在40km2/站,集总式水文模型对站网密度要求较低,站网密度应在100km2/站.研究认为水文多尺度仿真能够反映雨量站网密度的不同尺度的特征.     

丰满水库以上流域(不含白山区)遥测站网分析

针对丰满水库以上流域(不含白山区)水情自动测报系统现有遥测水文站网情况及流域雨洪、自然特性,对其站网布设合理性进行分析。遥测水位站采用位置及功能方法、雨量站采用流域面雨量精度比较法和站网密度检验法进行分析。结果表明,研究区域内遥测站网布设基本科学、合理,建议在除柳河子区间外的其他子区间内适当增加遥测雨量站个数,改旺起水位站为雨量/水位站,使站点分布更均匀合理,功能更完善,以提高流域水文预报和丰满水库调度的准确性。     

雨量站网密度对洪水模拟及模型参数的影响

以湿润地区呈村流域为研究对象,通过模糊聚类方法控制雨量站网密度,并基于新安江模型探究了站网密度对洪水模型模拟结果和模型参数的影响。结果表明,对于呈村流域,当雨量站网密度高于100 km2/站,次洪模拟精度不会再随着站网密度的增大有显著的提高,同时也难以再通过参数优化得到改善;随着雨量站网密度的增大,新安江模型参数SM呈现增大的趋势,参数CS呈现减小的趋势;新安江模型参数在高雨量站网密度条件下表现平稳,裁撤少量雨量站后可沿用由高站网密度所率定的模型参数。     

遂川江流域雨量站网密度分析研究

确定雨量站网密度是水文规划的重要问题之一,也对开展水资源评价和水文预报至关重要。本文采用抽站法、江西雨量站网密度公式,对遂川江夏溪站流域的雨量站网密度进行研究,揭示了影响面雨量计算精度的主要因素,确定了给定精度要求下区域的合理雨量站布站的密度,为江西省遂川江流域及其他类似地区的雨量站网布设提供参考。     

雨量站网布设对水文模型不确定性影响研究

应用新安江模型,以呈村流域为例,通过改变雨量站网的密度及同密度下的站点分布,比较分析不同雨量站网布设方式下水文模型的不确定性。结果表明:增加雨量站网密度能提高径流模拟精度,从而减小水文模型的不确定性,但雨量站达到一定数量之后,精度提高的趋势减缓;同站网密度不同位置组合的布设方式也会影响模拟精度。     

遥测雨量站网的布设与合理性论证

遥测雨量站网的布设是水情自动测报系统建设中一项重要的工作,应使拟定的遥测站网密度恰当,分布合理。根据遥测雨量站布设原则,分析有资料和无资料流域2种情况下雨量站的布设。并根据实际经验,结合实例,分别以面雨量和以流量精度作为目标函数,对水情自动测报系统遥测雨量站网的布设及合理性进行分析论证。在实际应用中,应根据工程特点,结合流域雨洪特点、现有站网和预报模型综合确定雨量布设站网。     

大苗山暴雨区最佳雨量站网密度的初步分析

前言 1979年底柳州水文分站以探讨雨量站网最佳布站密度、流域平均雨量最优计算方法、大苗山暴雨时空分布规律、产流及汇流规律等为目的,在大苗山暴雨区中心的贝江流域加密雨量站点进行实验研究。本文主要根据试验资料,应用下列方法进行分析:(一)泰森法、网格法、均值加权法、两轴法、算术平均法等面雨量计算方法与等值线法比较;(二)用抽站法分析不同时段不同精度所需最少站数;(三)积差法、经验法与抽站法比较;同时对关于大苗山暴雨区雨量站网密度最佳密度指标的确定等进行了探讨。     

用平均相关系数法确定深圳雨量站网密度

站网密度的确定是水文站网规划的关键。根据深圳市的降水特性和站网规划要求，以深圳市14个雨量站的实测雨量资料为样本，结合地图量算的测站间距离，采用平均相关系数法，计算出各流域面积下的雨量站数目。计算结果和《水文站网规划技术导则》推荐的雨量站网密度基本相同，说明用《水文站网规划技术导则》进行深圳市雨量站网规划是适合的。     

浅析佛子岭水库站点优化对预报精度的影响

依据佛子岭水库14个雨量站点降水资料进行系统分析,用泰森多边形法对水库流域雨量站按不同组合进行权重计算,对面雨量站点进行论证,提出优化调整的思路,确定一个经济合理、可行性强的预报站点组合。优化站点组合能及时准确获取水库流域平均雨量预报值,将调整后的优化组合方案对预报精度的影响进行初步验证,预报精度平均提高4．3％。     

寒冷地区冻土水文特性与产流机制研究

分析了寒冷冻土地区(以下简称寒区)的气候特点和冻土水文特性,在揭示冻土期土壤水分动态规律和特点的基础上,探讨了不同于无冻地区和无冻期的产流机制和相应的降雨径流关系,对寒区应用蓄满产流模型提出了改进意见,文中提出的实际成果资料和分析方法为寒区水文预报和水文计算提供了依据。     

SCS-CN-based Continuous Simulation Model for Hydrologic Forecasting

A new lumped conceptual model based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) concept has been proposed in this paper for long-term hydrologic simulation and it has been tested using the data of five catchments from different climatic and geographic settings of India. When compared with the Mishra et al. (2005) model based on variable source area (VSA) concept, the proposed model performed better in all applications. Both the models however exhibited a better match between the simulated and observed runoff in high runoff producing watersheds than did in low runoff producing catchments. Using the results of the proposed model, dominant/dormant processes involved in watershed’s runoff generating mechanism have also been identified. The presented model is found useful in the continuous simulation of rainfall–runoff process in watersheds.     

Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Performance Assessment Under Climate Change

This study attempts to investigate potential impacts of future climate change on streamflow and reservoir operation performance in a Northern American Prairie watershed. System Dynamics is employed as an effective methodology to organize and integrate existing information available on climate change scenarios, watershed hydrologic processes, reservoir operation and water resource assessment system. The second version of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Coupled Global Climate Model is selected to generate the climate change scenarios with daily climatic data series for hydrologic modeling. Watershed-based hydrologic and reservoir water dynamics modeling focuses on dynamic processes of both streamflow generation driven by climatic conditions, and the reservoir water dynamics based on reservoir operation rules. The reliability measure describes the effectiveness of present reservoir operation rules to meet various demands which are assumed to remain constant for the next 100 years in order to focus the study on the understanding of the structure and the behaviour of the water supply. Simulation results demonstrate that future climate variation and change may bring more high-peak-streamflow occurrences and more abundant water resources. Current reservoir operation rules can provide a high reliability in drought protection and flood control.     

Characterization and Evaluation of Elevation Data Uncertainty in Water Resources Modeling with GIS

Grid based digital elevation models (DEM) are commonly used in water resources modeling. The quality of readily available DEM, however, varies from source to source in terms of horizontal resolution and vertical accuracy which are the two important aspects of elevation uncertainty in the modeling with raster GIS. This paper addresses the issue of elevation data uncertainty in GIS supported hydrologic simulations. The essential role of elevation data in the modeling is revealed by presenting DEM processing processes in distributed and semi-distributed hydrologic analyses. It is very difficult to examine the elevation uncertainties analytically due to complexities of the hydrologic models. An ideal approach is to assess the effect of the DEM uncertainty by applying varying resolutions or accuracies of elevation data in the modeling. Different grid sizes of DEM are used in observing DEM resolution dependence and resulting model outputs are compared to obtain a profile of its effect. Impact of DEM vertical accuracy is explored by Monte Carlo simulation with a large number of DEM realizations generated based on different levels of specified error. The approach is implemented in a case study with a topography based hydrologic model on an experimental watershed to analyze both aspects of the uncertainty. The results show that both DEM grid size and vertical accuracy could have profound effect on hydrologic modeling performance. The impact can be compensated by model calibrations due to interactions between model parameters and spatial factors. The study indicates that the DEM uncertainty can be effectively evaluated using the applied method. The work is to provide some insight into the characterization of elevation data quality and the association between topography and water resources models.     

水文水动力学耦合模型在三峡梯级调度中的应用

以三峡水情数据库为基础数据来源,建立了三峡与葛洲坝水文预报与水流模拟系统。该系统以三水源新安江模型和API模型基于报汛站和遥测站两种数据源提供三峡区间5 d的水文预报数据;以一维水动力学模型和水文预报结果结合三峡、葛洲坝两枢纽调度参数模拟两水库的洪水演进过程;以平面二维水动力学模型模拟两坝间的水流细节;以多方案管理方式实现各调度预案的比较和优化。系统可为三峡、葛洲坝梯级调度提供5 d的实时水情预报,前3 d精度较高。本系统已安装在中国三峡开发总公司梯级调度中心正式运行,为三峡和葛洲坝枢纽的实时调度提供科学依据。     

Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change

The difference in timing between water supply and urban water demand necessitates water storage. Existing reservoirs were designed based upon hydrologic data from a given historical period, and, given recent evidence for climatic change, may be insufficient to meet demand under future climate change scenarios. The focus of this study is to present a generally applicable methodology to assess the ability of existing storage to meet urban water demand under present and projected future climatic scenarios, and to determine the effectiveness of storage capacity expansions. Uncertainties in climatic forcing and projected demand scenarios are considered explicitly by the models. The reservoir system in San Diego, California is used as a case study. We find that the climate change scenarios will be more costly to the city than scenarios using historical hydrologic parameters. The magnitude of the expected costs and the optimal investment policy are sensitive to projected population growth and the accuracy to which our model can predict spills.     

Use of satellite data for water resources modelling

Daily data from NOAA¹ satellites are combined with ground‐based meteorological, hydrometric, physiographic and land‐use data in a microcomputer database. A hydrologic model is applied to one basin in the Rocky Mountains and one on the prairies so that the effects of different physiographic and climatic characteristics might be investigated. Results show that using satellite data for areally distributed model inputs such as snow cover is a viable alternative to extrapolating from point measurements.     

气候变化下水文模拟不确定性若干问题讨论

在阐释水文不确定性定义的基础上,根据气候变化下水文模拟不确定性的分类,总结了气候变化情景、水文模型和评估过程方面不确定性研究的基本范式,概述了每种不确定性的来源及影响,综述了气候变化下水文模拟不确定性研究进展。指出了未来水文系统模拟不确定性研究的重点和方向：结合复杂网络,增强对极端气候事件预估的可靠性;科学处理数据时间窗问题和冗余性,为无资料地区径流预测提供支撑;揭示变化环境下非平稳异方差性水文序列的发生规律。     

长江上游变化条件下的流域水文预报模型系统研究

随着长江上游水库建设以及自然条件气候变化的影响,近些年长江上游各支流水文条件发生了较大变化,长系列历史资料以及基于天然河道所编制的水文预报方法不能完全适应新形势下生产调度的需要。必须开展三峡水库上游流域自然条件、流域径流等多方面变化的总结分析工作,建立考虑受气候变化和人类活动影响的流域水文预报模型,解决变化条件下的三峡入库径流预测问题,为实现流域梯级水电站群的安全高效运行和洪水资源化利用,提供科学和技术支撑。