基于SAR模型和蒙特卡罗法的防洪调度风险分析

应用一阶季节性自回归模型生成多场入库洪水过程,考虑泥沙淤积状况和泄流能力不确定性影响,在给定汛限水位和调洪规则下对模拟洪水进行调洪演算,统计得到水库防洪风险率。实例分析结果表明：水文因素的随机性、库容与水位关系的不确定性是万家寨水库防洪风险的主要影响因素,泄流能力不确定因素对水库泄洪影响不明显;同时得出了各汛限水位方案下水库的防洪风险率,为万家寨水库前汛期动态汛限水位选择提供了一定的参考依据。     

施工截流标准风险率及其区间估计

本文分析了截流施工过程中影响截流标准风险的各种不确定性因素，建立了基于龙口落差的截流标准风险率的数学模型，研究了基于龙口落差的截流标准风险率的点估计和区间估计，给出了风险率的点估计和区间估计的计算公式。实例计算说明本文给出的模型和计算公式是符合实际的。     

河道截流系统风险率计算模型及计算方法研究

为了对水利水电工程河道截流方案进行科学决策,简要回顾了截流风险的研究进程,并基于工程实际对截流系统进行了风险识别,分析了截流中可能遇到的风险事件类别及其影响因素。考虑水文、水力和施工的不确定性,建立了基于龙口轴线断面平均流速、龙口轴线水深和平均抛投强度的截流系统综合风险率估计数学模型,使截流风险率计算更加完善。对比了目前存在的风险计算方法的优劣,提出用基于完整水力学计算的 Monte-Carlo 法计算风险率。最后,对于计算中多风险变量的相关性、动态和静态风险区分、抽样次数、抽样误差等问题进行了讨论,并结合具体算例进行了分析。计算结果表明,截流系统综合风险率随截流设计流量的不同有较大变化,并与反应施工组织水平的抛投强度密切相关。     

三峡水库汛期调度不确定性分析

根据三峡水库围堰发电期调度规程，考虑水文和水力不确定性，建立了防洪和兴利综合调度模型。采用宜昌站120年（1882年～2001年）的日流量资料，借助蒙特卡罗模拟，计算分析了防洪风险率和发电量，探讨了各种不确定性因素对调度结果的影响。结果表明，水文不确定性是影响调度结果的最主要因素。     

水利水电工程施工导截流模型试验中的阻力相似问题

施工导截流模型阻力不相似会导致试验成果与实际存在较大偏差。采用理论分析及水力计算方法,剖析了长导流隧洞壁面沿程阻力相似的影响因素,揭示了截流模型试验中阻力危机现象,提出了解决阻力不相似问题的途径。研究表明:对于隧洞导流模型受模型比尺制约,模型水流往往处于紊流过渡区,洞壁阻力系数是模型雷诺数的函数,如忽视模型阻力相似问题,会导致模型泄流能力试验值和洞内流态与原型存在较大偏差,可采取加大流量法或通过系统试验拟合阻力系数与模型雷诺数的关系,再对模型试验泄流能力成果予以修正。对于截流模型,块体抗冲稳定相似需满足推阻力系数相似,模型雷诺数Re_m只有在3×10⁴~2×10⁵时,绕流阻力系数C_d才为常数,可通过合理选择模型比尺使模型水流进入自模拟区,避免阻力危机。     

螺旋流排沙管泄流量计算方法

本文通过水槽试验资料，分析了影响螺旋流排沙管泄流量的主要因素，提出螺旋流排沙管泄流量计算公式，并经三座水电站排沙管泄流量原型观测验证，用该公式计算排沙管泄流量筒便可靠、精度较高，可供设计排沙管时参考。     

螺旋流排沙管泄流量计算方法

本文通过水槽试验资料，分析了影响螺旋流排沙管泄流量的主要因素，提出螺旋流排沙管泄流量计算公式，并经三座水电站排沙管泄流量原型观测验证，用该公式计算排沙管泄流量简便可靠，精度较高，可供设计排沙管时参考。     

导流隧洞泄流能力预测偏差影响因素分析

为解决导流隧洞泄流能力影响因素及作用机制复杂引起的预测偏差较大问题,采用理论分析、数值模拟及模型试验相结合的研究方法,对导流隧洞泄流能力影响因素进行了识别和分类,剖析了各影响因素对泄流能力的作用机制及影响程度,提出了减小泄流能力预测偏差的方法。结果表明:导致泄流能力预测发生较大偏差的关键因素是糙率模拟偏差和模型水气两相因素缩尺效应引起的洞内明满流流态及流量区间偏差,使得模型洞内明满流转变为满流的分界点提前发生。为解决上述问题,首先需对试验得到的明满流区间范围进行修正,在有压流条件下,糙率模拟偏差可采用原模型糙率偏差值按所介绍的步骤予以修正。     

黄登水电站导流洞围堰残埂对截流的影响

通过对黄登水电站截流模型试验的研究,分析了导流洞进出口围堰残埂对截流的影响。主要从上游水位变化、截流过程中的水力学参数变化及截流抛投材料变化3个方面进行分析研究。试验成果表明:进出口围堰残埂在一定程度上增加了截流难度,且进口围堰残埂对泄流能力的影响较大;随着泄流量的增加,残埂对导流洞泄流能力的影响逐渐降低。因此,应尽量将导流洞进口施工围堰拆除到设计高程。     

糯扎渡水电站截流施工技术

糯扎渡水电站大江截流通过左岸2条导流隧洞泄流,截流流量为2890m3/s,龙口最大流速9．02m／s,合龙时龙口最大水位落差8．71m。在截流戗堤地形、地质条件复杂情况下,成功实现了大流量、大落差、高流速大江截流。     

梯级水电建设环境下土石围堰漫溢风险研究

针对在梯级水电建设环境下围堰度汛受来水、泄流等不确定性因素的耦合影响,以评估工程漫溢风险为目标,采用Monte-Carlo法仿真抽样技术及现有风险分析理论,按工程流域面积占比推求各级围堰施工期不确定性来水,结合工程安全度汛、溃堰失效两种不同泄洪方式建立梯级开发条件下土石围堰漫溢风险计算模型,并使用该模型进行了实例分析。结果表明:在梯级水电建设环境下上游工程安全度汛能有效降低下游工程的漫溢风险,与泄洪有关的水力参数对工程漫溢风险影响不大,而水文风险则是影响工程安全度汛的主要因素;当上游工程漫溢溃堰,改变了下游工程前的洪水组合方式会显著增大其漫溢失效的概率。研究成果可以合理预测梯级水电建设环境下工程的漫溢风险,能为梯级建设环境下土石围堰的设计及施工度汛提供重要的决策支持。     

基于随机微分方程的河道行洪风险分析

将各种不确定性因素（包括随机初值条件、随机系数和随机作用项等）引入河道水面线的推求过程，建立了计算河道水面线的随机微分方程。运用Ｆｏｋｋｅｒ－Ｐｌａｎｃｋ方程，求解河道水面线过程的概率密度。在此基础上，进行了河道行洪的风险分析，为堤防的安全、合理设计提供了条件。     

Influence of river discharge on grass carp occupancy dynamics in south‐eastern Iowa rivers

Despite the longstanding presence of grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) watershed, information regarding their populations remains largely unknown, in part because capture is difficult. Occupancy models are a popular wildlife assessment tool to account for imperfect detections but have been slow to be adopted in fisheries. Herein, we used occupancy modelling to evaluate the influence of two environmental covariates (river discharge and water temperature) on grass carp occupancy, extinction, colonization, and detection at nine sites within south‐eastern Iowa rivers from April to October 2014 and 2015. Grass carp were detected at least once at all but one site. The most parsimonious model indicated that grass carp colonization probability increased from 0.15 to 0.67 with increases in river discharge. In contrast, occupancy (0.20), extinction (0.29), and detection (0.50) probabilities were temporally constant. Models indicated that water temperatures did not influence grass carp extinction or colonization probabilities relative to river discharge. Cumulative grass carp detection probability approached 1.0, whereas conditional occupancy estimates were less than 0.1 when using five or more sampling transects. The use of a robust design occupancy model allowed us to estimate site occupancy rates of grass carp corrected for imperfect detections, while demonstrating the importance of river discharge for site colonization. These results can be used to assess the distribution of a cryptic fish while helping to guide grass carp sampling and removal efforts.     

用风险决策方法确定施工导流标准

施工导流标准的确定，就其本质而言是风险决策问题。在分析导流过程随机特性的基础上，将各种水力不确定性因素引入导流堰前水位的推求过程，建立了导流水力计算的随机微分方程，求解堰前水位过程的概率密度。并结合工程实例，讨论了不同导流标准和导流方案的导流风险度，进行了风险决策，并提出了工程建议。     

Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) in Goulais Bay,Lake Superior: Cohort strength determinants and population viability

Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) is a species of conservation concern throughout North America, and healthy populations are rare. Earlier sampling efforts identified the Goulais Bay population in Lake Superior as a potentially healthy population after three years of sampling. With seven additional years of sampling, we updated the earlier analysis and developed a matrix population model to conduct a population viability analysis (PVA). We identified a non-linear relationship between cohort strength and May river discharge rate which was incorporated into the population model to evaluate the influence of future discharge scenarios on population persistence. Population size was estimated, with an open-population mark-recapture model, at approximately 5,200 juvenile Lake Sturgeon. This estimate equates to approximately 440 mature females and 625 mature males in the population. A population of this size has a probability of extinction of 4 % and 18 % over 250 and 1000 years under status quo conditions. If the May river discharge were to decrease in the future, which may represent the most likely scenario under future climate conditions, our model predicts an increased risk of population extirpation. This indicates that increased management actions may be required to ensure this population remains resilient.     

三峡工程明渠截流水流数学模型研究及其应用 I:模型建立与率定

三峡工程三期截流具有流量大、落差大、龙口流速大等特点。为保证截流顺利实施,将一维和二维水流数学模型紧密结合,先用一维模型推求明渠的过流量及上下游戗堤承担的水位落差,再用二维模型模拟戗堤进占时明渠内的水力条件。然后利用已有的水工模型试验资料,对建立的数学模型进行了率定。率定结果表明:一维模型计算的明渠过流量、截流总落差、上下游戗堤承担的水位落差等结果与试验值相当接近;二维模型的计算结果不仅与试验值基本符合,同时又符合弯道水力学的基本特点。     

面向结构图的分汊河道截流过程仿真与优化研究

采用面向结构图的仿真方法,基于Matlab/Simulink软件平台,提出了分汊河道截流过程仿真与优化方法。结合截流情况建立截流系统仿真模型,并采用混合遗传算法对模型进行求解,在仿真基础上对截流系统进行优化分析。该方法实现了建模与仿真的模块化、结构化和可视化,并且模块可重用性强便于模型的修改和集成。面向工程实例,根据河道汊口处两江水位相等的特征,建立了目标函数方程并采用混合遗传算法求解,该算法求解精度高、收敛速度快,仿真结果证明了以上方法的科学性和有效性。     

The hydraulic characteristics of end-dump closure with the assistance of backwater-sill in diversion channel

The river closure is a key step in the water dam construction, and the end-dump closure is a general way to cut off the river flow. The hydraulic characteristics at the closure gap are the main factors which affect the extent of closure difficulty. A method is proposed to reduce the difficulty of diversion channel closure by pre-building a closure structure called the backwater-sill at the downstream toe of the closure gap to change the flow pattern at the closure gap. The results of the physical model test and the threedimensional numerical simulation indicate that the backwater-sill has the effects of raising the water level at the downstream toe of the closure gap, decreasing the water surface gradient, and reducing the closure drop and the flow velocity at the closure gap. The schemes with different dike widths, different closure gap widths, and different backwater-sill widths and heights are simulated. The results show that the height of the backwater-sill is the key factor affecting the hydro-indicators at the closure gap, while the influence of the dike width, the closure gap width or the backwater-sill width can be ignored. The higher the backwater-sill is, the lower the hydro-indicators will be. Based on the numerical simulations and the physical model tests on the hydraulic characteristics at the closure gap of the backwater-sill assisted closure, the hydro-indicators and its calculation method are proposed to provide a theoretical support for the river closure.