Methods to Assess Costs of Drought Damages and Policies for Drought Mitigation and Adaptation: Review and Recommendations

This article examines available methods for assessing all types of drought costs, including both damage costs and costs arising from adopting policy measures to encourage mitigation of, and adaptation to, droughts. It first discusses damage costs, distinguishing between direct, indirect and non-market costs. Then it examines the suitability of existing methods for estimating drought costs in different economic sectors, their underlying theoretical assumptions, complementarity between different methods, and conditions relevant for their application. The latter include precision, ability to deal with future climate change risks, data needs and availability, and required financial and human resources. The article further considers potential policies for drought mitigation and adaptation and different cost types associated with them. It ends with providing recommendations for good practices regarding the use of methods as well as drought mitigation and adaptation policies.     

Impacts of Climate Change and Seasonal Variability on Economic Treatment Costs: A Case Study of the Nitra River Basin,Slovakia

Analysis of climate change impacts upon water resources has focused prim arily on water quantity issues. The impacts upon water qu ality and water quality management have had little attention. This paper presents a framework for assessing climate change impacts upon stream water quality and the management costs associated with adaptation to the new hydroclim atic conditions resulting in changes in streamflow and stream temperature. W ater quality indicators as well as chemical and biological processes important to water quality are a fu nction of stream temperature. This paper reports not on ly on how water quality indices will be im pacted by alternative climate change scenarios, but on the econom ic cost of maintaining water quality stan dards. The costs of maintaining water quality standards result from increased treatm ent of waste loads due to decreased waste assimilation capacity of warmer streams. A case study based on regionally developed climate change scenarios shows that water quality levels are greatly impacted in the low flow periods (by as m uch as 14 times), while average annual conditions are n ot impacted significantly.     

Cross-Comparison of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Across Large River Basins in Europe, Africa and Asia

A cross-comparison of climate change adaptation strategies across regions was performed, considering six large river basins as case study areas. Three of the basins, namely the Elbe, Guadiana, and Rhine, are located in Europe, the Nile Equatorial Lakes region and the Orange basin are in Africa, and the Amudarya basin is in Central Asia. The evaluation was based mainly on the opinions of policy makers and water management experts in the river basins. The adaptation strategies were evaluated considering the following issues: expected climate change, expected climate change impacts, drivers for development of adaptation strategy, barriers for adaptation, state of the implementation of a range of water management measures, and status of adaptation strategy implementation. The analysis of responses and cross-comparison were performed with rating the responses where possible. According to the expert opinions, there is an understanding in all six regions that climate change is happening. Different climate change impacts are expected in the basins, whereas decreasing annual water availability, and increasing frequency and intensity of droughts (and to a lesser extent floods) are expected in all of them. According to the responses, the two most important drivers for development of adaptation strategy are: climate-related disasters, and national and international policies. The following most important barriers for adaptation to climate change were identified by responders: spatial and temporal uncertainties in climate projections, lack of adequate financial resources, and lack of horizontal cooperation. The evaluated water resources management measures are on a relatively high level in the Elbe and Rhine basins, followed by the Orange and Guadiana. It is lower in the Amudarya basin, and the lowest in the NEL region, where many measures are only at the planning stage. Regarding the level of adaptation strategy implementation, it can be concluded that the adaptation to climate change has started in all basins, but progresses rather slowly.     

Water Resources Management Strategies for Adaptation to Climate-Induced Impacts in South Africa

This paper focuses on the development of a framework for strategy considerations for water resources management in South Africa to meet the development goals in the municipal and agricultural sectors. The north western part of South Africa experiences severe periods of drought and according to the climate change projections, will be most vulnerable to future climate induced water supply stress. A framework for selecting appropriate strategies is presented. A series of potential adaptation strategies most suitable for long term adaptation are discussed. These include both supply and demand side strategies. Barriers and obstacles to implementing these strategies include human and financial resource deficiencies at local municipal and community levels.     

Decision Making Tool for Sustainable Water Sharing

This paper explores the possibility of using a calibrated rainfall-runoff model as a decision-making tool in sustainable water sharing. Designing institutional arrangements for runoff sharing process in the case of a sub-catchment spread across geopolitical boundary is challenging. For the water sharing arrangement to be sustainable, it must be founded on realistic runoff predictions. The climate uncertainties make the water sharing process more complex and complicated. This context warrants a decision-making tool for helping the water sharing policy makers and its managers in taking a decision. In this study, a decision-making tool for sharing the waters of Parambikulam sub-catchment in Southern Peninsular India is developed. RRL (Rainfall-Runoff Library), RAP (River Analysis Package) and SCL (Stochastic Climate Library) of eWater toolkit are used for developing this tool. In the decision making, it also incorporates the runoff change prediction portrayed in India’s second national communication to UNFCC. The existing institutional arrangement for water sharing of this sub-catchment is revisited in the light of findings of this study. Paper is concluded by explaining how it is useful in synthesizing a range of options on designing a new water sharing paradigm for this sub-catchment.     

Sustainable Water Supply and Demand Management in Semi-arid Regions: Optimizing Water Resources Allocation Based on RCPs Scenarios

Climate as one of the key factors in water resources management affects the amount of water in the hydrological cycle, which subsequently impacts the level of water availability. Considering the challenges that the South Alborz Region, Iran is currently facing in supplying water for various consumers; in this study, the climate change adaptation scenarios are investigated for sustainable water supply and demand. This study uses a procedure in which five different adaptation approaches, under RCPs scenarios, were established using the WEAP model to assess the impacts of various adaptation strategies on increasing the balance between water supply and demand over current and 2020s accounts. The findings suggest an imbalance between supply and demand in the current situation with the greatest imbalance in domestic use while the minimum in the industrial sector. The results of assessing adaptive scenarios show that various scenarios have different effects on balancing the water supply and demand by different consumers; on the other hand, the scenarios that directly affect domestic water demand have the greatest effect on minimizing the gap between supply and demand in the region; therefore, the options for decreasing the population demand along with diminishing the losses in the domestic water distribution network are the most effective alternatives for balancing supply and demand under all of the climate scenarios. The findings of this research indicate that adaptive management with the focus on restricting demand helps actively management of water resources in the regions with scarce water resources.

     

Managing Adaptation of Urban Water Systems in a Changing Climate

Current evidence is that climate change is occurring, it is largely manmade and it will have significant implications for human civilisation. Australia is particularly vulnerable to the anticipated effects of climate change, creating major challenges for water resource management and water supply security. Climate change adaptation offers a means by which we can reduce our exposure to future climate change risks, whilst at the same time exploiting any potential benefits that may arise from climatic changes. This review outlines the current major climate change adaptation challenges facing the water supply industry at large, with a particular focus on these challenges in an Australian context. It also aims to highlight the critical knowledge gaps and strategies required to assist in the formulation of adaptation responses to the range of potential impacts on water infrastructure and future water security. A diverse range of management and assessment techniques are used by relevant professions in industry. Here, an adaptive management approach is presented highlighting the important information required for robust assessment.     

Measuring Progress on Climate Change Adaptation Policy by Dutch Water Boards

The Netherlands is particularly vulnerable for the impacts of climate change on the water system. Regional water authorities, or water boards, are given an important role to design and implement specific adaptation policies and measures to manage these impacts. From the early 2000s onwards water boards are starting to adapt to climate change impacts, yet no systematic assessments exist to assess whether or not progress is being made and what explains similarities and differences across water boards. This paper aims to address these critical questions by analyzing the progress of all Dutch water boards for the period 2005–2016. We systematically collected and analyzed three consecutive water management plans for all 23 water boards in the Netherlands. We use content analysis methods to analyze progress by looking into their vulnerability and three levels of adaptation: recognition, groundwork and adaptation action. The results show that over time the number of reported climate change adaptation initiatives by the water boards is increasing, but most climate change adaptation is still at the recognition or groundwork level. Our findings reveal a diversity of efforts to adapt to climate change among Dutch water boards. We conclude that while (inter)national water and climate change adaptation policies have called for more adaptation action at regional levels, the unequal progress across the Netherlands suggests that existing ‘soft’ policy measures to push for adaptation might not be sufficient to ensure progress on adaptation across all water boards.     

The Added Value of Understanding Informal Social Networks in an Adaptive Capacity Assessment: Explorations of an Urban Water Management System in Indonesia

Social networks play an important role in environmental governance regimes, and they are a key to the adaptive capacity of systems that deal with complex, contextual and multi-faceted issues. Urban water systems are typical examples of complex systems facing many pressures, such as increased population, water quality deterioration, and climate change. This paper explores social networks of the key stakeholders engaged in urban water management, in Makassar City, Indonesia, in the context of exploring ways to improve management of an increasingly complex urban water system. Three social networks were explored; those constituted by formal and informal interactions and networks perceived by stakeholders to be “ideal”. Formal networks were identified through an examination of the legislative instruments and government agencies’ documents relating to water provision in Makassar, while the informal and “ideal” networks were investigated in collaboration with the stakeholders. The research found that the informal social network was more extensive than were the formally required networks, and the investigation of informal networks created a potentially more robust and adaptive water management system than would have occurred through inclusion of formal institutional arrangements. We suggest that in examination of the adaptive capacity of an urban water system, one also considers the informal arrangements and linkages, as this additional information about the system is necessary to enhance our understanding of potential adaptation of water management and improved urban water systems.     

Future Water Supply and Demand Management Options in the Athabasca Oil Sands

The Athabasca River Basin, home to Canada's growing oil sands mining industry, faces challenging trade‐offs between energy production and water security. Water demand from the oil sands mining industry is projected to increase as climate change is projected to alter the seasonal freshwater supply. In this study, a range of water management options are developed to investigate the potential trade‐offs between the scale of bitumen production and industry growth, water storage requirements, and environmental protection for the aquatic ecosystems, under projections of mid‐century climate change. It is projected that water storage will be required to supplement river withdrawals to maintain continuous bitumen production under the impacts of future climate warming. If high growth in future bitumen production and water demand is the priority, then building sufficient water storage capacity to meet industry demand will be comparable to a week of lost revenue because of interrupted production. If environmental protection is prioritized instead, it will require over nine times the water storage costs to maintain water demand under a high industry growth trajectory. Future water use decisions will need to first, determine the scale of industry and environmental protection, and second, balance the costs of water storage against lost revenue because of water shortages that limit bitumen production. This physically based assessment of future water trade‐offs can inform water policy, water management decisions, and climate change adaptation plans, with applicability to other regions facing trade‐offs between industrial development and ecosystem water needs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Governance and management of local water storage in the Hindu Kush Himalayas

The people of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region face severe seasonal water shortages due to the high variability in rainfall, and the problem is likely to be exacerbated under climate change. Small-scale local water storage options offer a means of collecting monsoon precipitation to provide for agricultural and household needs over the entire year, and they help build community resilience. Proper watershed management, with due consideration of upstream–downstream linkages, and appropriate institutional arrangements are vital for this adaptation measure to work. Active participation of local users in decisions related to water allocation and community services is essential. Planned interventions should preserve the institutional arrangements of reciprocity and cooperation among community members.     

Water Variability and the Economic Impacts on Small-Scale Farmers. A Farm Risk-Based Integrated Modelling Approach

Strengthening the planning of hydrological resources to optimize the use of water in agriculture is a key adaptation measure of the Chilean agricultural sector to cope with future climate change. To address this challenge, decision-makers call for tools capable of representing farmers’ behaviours under the likely stresses generated by future climate conditions. In this context, of special concern are the effects of water variability on small-scale farmers, who commonly operate with narrow profit margins and who lack access to financial resources and technological knowledge. This paper sheds light on the economic impacts of changes in water availability on small-scale agriculture. We provide a hydro-economic modelling framework that captures the socio-economic effects of water shocks on smallholders in the Vergara River Basin, Chile. This approach links a farm risk-based economic optimization model to a hydrologic simulation model adjusted for the basin. Our results indicate that at the aggregated level, there will be minor economic impacts of climate change on the basin’s small-scale agriculture, with small decreases in both expected utility and wealth. However, large differences in the economic impacts of wealthy and poor small-scale farmers are found. Changes in water availability, reduce the options of land reallocation to increase farmer’s expected utility, being the poor small-scale farmers the most negatively affected.     

Socio-Economic Impact of Evaporation Losses from Reservoirs Under Past, Current and Future Water Availability Scenarios in the Semi-Arid Segura Basin

This study assesses evaporation losses from water reservoirs in the semi-arid Segura basin (south-east Spain), one of the most water stressed European catchments. These losses are evaluated from both the hydrologic and economic perspectives under different water availability scenarios that are based on water policy trends and climate change predictions. We take a multidisciplinary approach to the analysis, combining energy balance models to assess the effect of climate change on evaporation from water bodies, Class-A pan data and pan coefficients to determine evaporation loss on a regional scale, and non-linear mathematical programming modelling to simulate the economic impact of water use and allocation in the basin. Our results indicate that water availability could be reduced by up to 40 % in the worst-case scenario, with an economic impact in the 32–36 % range, depending on the indicator in question. The total annual evaporation loss from reservoirs ranges from 6.5 % to 11.7 % of the water resources available for irrigation in the basin, where evaporation from small reservoirs is more than twice that from large dams. The economic impact of such losses increases with water scarcity, ranging from 4.3 % to 12.3 % of the value of agricultural production, 4.0 % to 12.0 % of net margin, 5.8 % to 10.7 % of the irrigated area, and 5.4 % to 13.5 % of agricultural employment. Results illustrate the importance of evaporation losses from reservoirs in this region and the marked upward trend for future scenarios. Besides, they highlight the extent of the impact of climate change on future water resources availability and use in southern Europe.     

Climate Change Adaptation Indicators to Assess Wastewater Management and Reuse Options in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Climate change adaptation indicators have played a critical role in the increased understanding of potential climate change impacts. In this research, 6 climate change adaptation indicators were identified for Can Tho City in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam: (1) Rice production from wastewater during winter-spring crop; (2) % of irrigation water demand satisfied by treated wastewater; (3) % of nutrient demand satisfied by treated wastewater; (4) % remaining flow downstream of Can Tho in the Hau River; (5) environmental benefits; and (6) total investment cost for wastewater treatment. These indices were selected to assess various options/strategies for wastewater management and reuse in Can Tho City as a means to improve the City’s resilience to climate change. From an environmental perspective, this study shows the benefits for Can Tho City to set up a strategy to treat and reuse wastewater from catfish farming as the priority among four assessed scenarios with different climate change impact factors. It is concluded that adaptation can be assessed by the indicators because they can define whether adaptation policies and measures are implemented and whether vulnerability is reduced through effective actions.     

Adaptation for river basins: connecting policy goals to the water resources system.

This paper focuses on a methodology called 'generic adaptation methodology for river basins' (AMR) that provides guidance to water managers seeking: (1) potential adaptation measures to climate change and climate variability, (2) measuring impacts, and (3) evaluating adaptations. The methodology uses basic elements addressed in existing adaptation research and is designed for a participatory setting involving various stakeholders. In AMR, the water resources system is seen as an economic asset that provides 'goods and services' for both humans and ecosystems. The innovative aspect of AMR is that it distinguishes impacts to water management objectives and impacts to the physical state of water resources in a river basin in a relatively simple iterative approach. Both impact types are quantified using indicators. The framework and results are demonstrated for a case study in the Walawe basin (Sri Lanka). It is explained that actually implementing adaptations in policy making can be difficult in trans-boundary river basins as each riparian country has its own policy objectives and hence ways of dealing with adaptation.     

Managing the risks from the water-related impacts of extreme weather and uncertain climate change on inland aquaculture in Northern Thailand

ABSTRACT

Climate change will have significant impacts on inland aquaculture. This article assesses the robustness of a set of potential adaptation strategies for Northern Thailand using a rule-based assessment model to synthesize information from secondary sources, fish farmers, officials and experts. The net benefits of different strategy types vary substantially with water demand and fish demand, as well as future climate. No-regret and low-regret strategies are worthwhile under a broad range of conditions, but may not be sufficient to maintain profitability as the negative impacts of climate change unfold. The main implication is that adaptation pathways must be flexible.     

Development of Adaptation Measures for Water Resources

Many countries are preparing national climate change action plans that describe specific m easures they are taking to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the potential effects of climate change. Am ong the reasons for preparing such plans is that climate change is likely to occur and many anticipatory measures that would be taken in response to climate change are no-regret measures that will produce benefits even if climate does not change. Additionally, these plans can serve as communications required by the Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article proposes an assessment process for anticipatory adaptation m easures that will enable countries to identify, select and implement measures to adapt to climate change. These measures anticipate potential climate changes and thus must be flexible enough to m eet objectives under a wide variety of future clim ate conditions. The process builds on assessments of vulnerability by focusing on adaptation m easures for the most sensitive regions, or populations within a country. Potential anticipatory adaptation measures are identified and two or three are chosen based on expert judgement regarding which measures would produce the greatest benefits and be easiest to implement. Formal analytic techniques are used to assess the benefits and costs of each of the m easu res and to evaluate barriers to implementation. The measure that has the greatest net benefits and is easiest to implement is selected. The final step in the process is preparing an implementation plan. The application of the process is illustrated by examining a hypothetical reservoir threatened by climate change.     

An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment

Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ET_N), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ET_N may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy.     

Model-Supported Impact Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany Under Climate Change—A Case Study

Climate change challenges water managers and researchers to find sustainable management solutions, in order to avoid undesirable impacts on water resources, environment and water-dependent sectors. Needed are projections into the future for the main driving forces, the resulting pressures on water resources, and quantification of the impacts. Modeling studies can play an important role in investigating, quantifying, and communicating possible impacts of climate change, with account of uncertainty of the results. However, climate change related impacts and a need for adaptation still play a minor role in current river basin management plans that have to comply e.g. with the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). One important reason is that climate impact assessment is generally done in research institutes, while management plans are designed by practitioners working in national and regional environmental agencies and water supply companies. Knowledge transfer from science to practice and visa versa is often missing. In the present study, we propose a methodology and a case study for model-supported decision making in the water sector applicable to a participatory water resources planning process. The methodology is applied in a case study investigating climate change impacts on water resources. The case study area is the German State of Saxony-Anhalt, where the task was to develop a climate change impact assessment including possible adaptation measures as basis for a federal adaptation directive.     

公共灌溉管理体制现代化--将来可持续灌溉的重点

对于大型灌区来说,其最终目标是以最少的国家财政支出,通过改善服务水平来不断提高农业耕作的收益率.但是,大型灌区内部的官僚体制和配水系统的不灵活性使其很难按照市场的变化和利润优势进行快速反应.因此,必须通过综合系统的现代化,即通过将现有的体制结构和灌溉配水系统进行变革,使其按照需水要求提供可持续的、高效的配水服务来进一步提高收益率.这种按照需水要求提供配水服务的体制变革主要包括削弱政府在管理和财政上的作用、进行权利分散、提高部门责任感以及经济自立.通过提高用水效率来减少支出,扩大收入.用水户协会的成立已经证明其在现代化改造和用水户参与方面是行之有效的,因此,应将其包括在决策制定过程中的各个环节.同时鼓励扩大水委员会或用水户联合会.在时机成熟时转让灌溉管理权,且灌溉管理权的转让应提前做好规划,按照中长期进程加以实施.同时还可以鼓励和开展公私合作伙伴(PPP).建立PPP的主要目的就是成立"第三专业机构"来改善管理,加强合作.