基于ET的水资源与水环境综合规划研究（Ⅱ）- 模型

本文根据基于ET的区域水资源综合规划的理念、研究框架、目标及调控体系，构建了基于ET的区域水资源与水环境综合模拟模型（WQQCM），该模型由分布式水文SWAT模型、人工水平衡AWB模型及分布式地下水MODFLOW模型耦合而成，实现地表水和地下水、天然水循环和人工水循环、水量和水质联合模拟，作为区域水资源与水环境综合规划的工具。本文以天津市为例对模型从地表水径流、地表水水质、地下水以及模型模拟ET结果等方面进行了校验，校验结果表明模型可支撑不同节水、水资源配置、点源和非点源水污染控制、水生态修复规划方案的情景模拟，为区域水资源与水环境规划提供数据支撑。     

灌区地表水—地下水耦合模型的构建

为了定量描述灌区水平衡要素及其转化关系,构建了灌区地表水-地下水分布式模拟耦合模型。通过改进SWAT模型的稻田及旱作物水分循环、蒸发蒸腾量和渠系渗漏计算等模块,建立了灌区地表水分布式模拟模型;以SWAT模型中的水文响应单元(HRU)和MODFLOW模型中的有限差分网格(cells)作为基本交换单元,将改进SWAT模型的地下水补给量计算值加载到MODFLOW模型的地下水补给模块,实现了灌区地表水-地下水分布式模拟模型的耦合。耦合模型在柳园口灌区的应用结果表明,该模型能够准确模拟和预测灌区地表水和地下水的动态变化,为灌区水管理提供了科学依据。     

基于广义ET的水资源与水环境综合规划研究Ⅱ:模型

在所提出的广义ET区域水资源综合规划的理念和研究框架基础上,本文构建了基于广义ET的区域水资源与水环境综合模拟模型,该模型由分布式水文SWAT模型、人工水平衡AWB模型及分布式地下水MODFLOW模型耦合而成,实现了地表水和地下水、天然水循环和人工水循环、水量和水质联合模拟。该模型可作为区域水资源与水环境综合规划的工具。以天津市为例,从地表水径流、地表水水质、地下水以及模型模拟ET结果等方面对模型进行了校验,校验结果表明模型可进行不同节水、水资源配置、点源和非点源水污染控制、水生态修复规划方案的情景模拟,为区域水资源与水环境规划提供支撑。     

SWAT模型与MODFLOW模型的耦合计算及应用

为了准确模拟区域地下水动态变化,将地表水SWAT模型与地下水MODFLOW模型进行耦合计算。根据SWAT分布式模型的特点,以其水文响应单元(HRU)和MODFLOW模型的有限差分网格(cell)作为基本交换单元,将SWAT模型计算的地下水补给量和潜水蒸发量引入MODFLOW模型的地下水补给(RCH)模块和潜水蒸发(EVT)模块中,并将其应用于徐州市张集地区的地下水模拟计算。结果表明,SWAT模型与MODFLOW模型的耦合计算能准确模拟和预测该地区的地下水水情及其地表水和地下水之间的相互作用。     

TVGM-LSTM耦合模型及其径流模拟效果分析

为提升变化环境下流域径流模拟与预测精度，以白河流域为例，构建了基于时变增益水文模型(TVGM)和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的TVGM-LSTM耦合模型，并利用随机森林算法识别模型最优解释变量。将耦合模型应用于2011—2018年白河流域径流模拟，结果表明：TVGM-LSTM耦合模型在白河流域具有较好的径流模拟效果，率定期与检验期纳什效率系数分别为0.95与0.90;与TVGM相比，耦合模型提升了对非汛期径流的模拟精度，且能够较好地模拟汛期与非汛期洪峰；耦合模型能够有效避免过拟合问题，泛化性能较优，预测精度稳定性较强。     

地表水与地下水耦合模型研究进展

描述地表水与地下水文过程耦合概念,论述国内外具有代表性的流域水文模型与地下水模型耦合的3种类型及耦合方法,提出地表水与地下水耦合模型的主要特征及适应性,并对今后的发展方向进行了展望。     

气象水文模型耦合研究及其在渭河流域的应用

在由工程和非工程措施构成的流域防洪减灾体系中,水文预报占据十分重要的地位。为了延长水文预报的有效预见期,同时保证水文预报的精度,需要对整个水循环过程进行综合模拟研究,因此大气模式和水文模型的耦合研究成为关键。论文分别建立并验证了数值天气预报模式WRF和分布式水文模型WEP,采用单向耦合的方式,构建了渭河流域陆气耦合模拟平台,在此基础上对渭河流域2000年9月下旬至10月下旬的降雨和径流过程进行耦合模拟,并与实测降雨及径流日过程进行了对比分析,取得了较好的效果。     

基于物理过程的分布式流域水沙预报模型

将分布式水文模型与土壤侵蚀产沙模型相互嵌套,构建了一个分布式流域水沙预报模型。模型基于DEM,将流域离散为“坡面+ 沟道”系统,采用“+ 1 ”分级方法将沟道组织为河网,实现了流域水沙预报的并行计算。坡面单元划分为植被层、地表层、非饱和带和地下水层,模拟了降雨、截留、蒸散发、入渗、地表径流、壤中流和地下水、各种形式的侵蚀产沙及泥沙输移;沟道进行汇流演算以及泥沙输移。模型在李子溪流域对长系列降雨的模拟结果表明,模型的水文模块模拟精度良好,侵蚀产沙模块模拟效果基本令人满意。     

两种水文模型在汤河流域水文模拟中的对比分析

本文分别引入分布式水文模型SWAT模型和VIC模型,以汤河流域为例,结合流域内二道河子水文站2000~2010年实测水文数据,对比分析不同分布式水文模型在汤河流域的适用性和模拟精度。基于分布式水文模型SWAT模型,通过设定2种气温变化情景模式,定量分析气温变化对流域径流影响。研究表明:SWAT模型模拟的径流深相对误差和确定性系数均好于分布式水文模型VIC模型,SWAT模型更适合于汤河流域水文模拟。研究成果对于汤河流域分布式水文模拟提供参考价值。     

基于多重网格的地表水文与二维水动力动态双向耦合模型研究

针对流域洪涝模拟模型的计算精度、格式稳定性及计算效率等问题,本文提出基于多重网格技术的地表水文与二维水动力动态双向耦合模型(M-DBCM)。地表水文模型采用非线性水库法模拟降雨产流和径流;二维水动力模型采用浅水方程模拟洪水演进过程。采用不同分辨率的网格划分计算区域,在粗网格区域采用地表水文模型模拟降雨径流过程;在细网格区域采用二维水动力模型模拟洪涝积水区的水流运动。地表水文和二维水动力模型通过内部耦合移动界面(Coupling Moving Interface, CMI)实现无缝连接,保证通过CMI的水量和动量等通量守恒,提高模型的模拟精度。采用时间显式格式同时求解地表水文和水动力模型,在不同区域采用不同的计算时间步长,以提高模型的计算效率。通过典型案例验证本文构建的耦合模型的性能,结果表明本文提出的动态双向耦合模型能够在保证模拟精度的同时提高计算效率。     

基于水循环的分布式水资源调配模型开发与应用

自以水循环为基础的水资源动态配置模式提出以来,一批基于耦合分布式水文模型的水资源配置模型被先后提出,但其采用的耦合方法往往忽视了经济社会用水过程与天然水文过程之间的动态反馈作用.本文通过改进SWAT模型,并嵌合水资源配置模块,开发了基于水循环的分布式水资源调配模型(Water resources allocation ...     

Assessing Impacts of Conservation Measures on Watershed Hydrology Using MIKE SHE Model in the Face of Climate Change

Climate change triggers changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc. and has a significant impact on water resources in many regions. Considering the increasing scarcity of water as a result of climate change, conservation of water and groundwater recharge have become crucial factors for water resources planning and management. In this paper, an attempt is made to study the detailed hydrological behaviour of a treated watershed using physically based distributed hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE to assess the impact of conservation measures on watershed hydrology considering future climate change. Three hypothetical management scenarios are simulated for the period 2010–2040. RegCM4 regional climate model is used in the study for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Detailed hydrological water balance is extracted for individual years from 1979 to 2009 to compare relevant components. The evaluation for base period shows 10.06% reduction in surface runoff and 11.33% enhancement in groundwater recharge. Further simulation with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios show notable reduction in surface runoff and increase in groundwater recharge. The structures in the micro-watershed influence the surface runoff and increase infiltration into the soil, resulting in higher groundwater recharge. MIKE SHE simulations for various structures management scenarios establish the role of conservation measures in reducing surface runoff and enhancing groundwater recharge under substantial effect of climate change. The results will assist in decision-making on watershed development plans in quantitative terms, including planning for water conservation measures in the face of climate change.

     

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Lake Regulation in the Vuoksi Watershed in Finland

The impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Vuoksi watershed in eastern Finland were studied in order to assess the possibilities to adapt lake regulation to the projected changes. A conceptual watershed model and several climate scenarios were used to estimate the effects of climate change on three lakes in the Vuoksi watershed for 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099. The adaptation possibilities were studied by using alternative regulation strategies. In Lake Pielinen the impacts of these water level changes on social, economic and ecological indicators were assessed with two different outflow strategies. According to the results, climate change will alter snow accumulation and melt and therefore cause large seasonal changes in runoff and water levels. Runoff and water levels will decrease during late spring and summer and increase during late autumn and winter. In some lakes current calendar-based regulation practices and limits, which have been developed based on past hydrology, may not be appropriate in the future. Modifying the regulation practices and limits is a necessary and effective way to adapt to climate change.     

奥林匹克公园地区雨水系统研究

为保障第29届奥林匹克运动会在北京顺利举行,对奥林匹克公园地区的雨水系统组成进行分析,建立基于ArcGIS平台的雨水系统GeoDateBase数据库,构建雨水径流、雨水管网、河道系统、地面二维漫流的耦合模型,选择理论和实际降雨雨型,进行不同重现期情景的模拟,对雨水系统设计进行校核,对超标降雨进行风险分析,并提出防洪应对措施与建议。     

开采浅层水 增雨水入渗 引河水补源 水可持续用

南皮县淡水资源严重短缺,制约工农业与经济社会的发展。春季开采浅层地下水包括微咸水和半咸水抗旱灌溉,腾出地下含水层空间；汛期增加降雨入渗,减少径流流失,防渍防涝,把时空分布不均的天然降雨转化为地下水资源；秋冬利用河道沟渠引蓄河水补源,淡化地下水质,增加地下水可采量。地上水地下水联合运用,保持水资源采补平衡。实现旱涝碱咸综合治理、水资源可持续利用与经济社会可持续发展。     

Runoff and Sediment Yield Modelling for a Treated Hilly Watershed in Eastern Himalaya Using the Water Erosion Prediction Project Model

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model was calibrated and validated for a hilly watershed treated with graded bunding and water-harvesting tank in high rainfall condition of eastern Himalayan range in India. The performance of the model for the treated watershed was unacceptable with percent deviation of −45.81 and −38.35 respectively for runoff and sediment yield simulations when calibrated parameter values for the nearby untreated watershed were used. This was possibly due to differences in soil properties and average land slope. When soil parameters were calibrated for the treated watershed, the model performance improved remarkably. During calibration, the model simulated surface runoff and sediment yield with percent deviations equal to +6.24 and +9.02, and Nash–Sutcliffe simulation coefficients equal to 0.85 and 0.81, respectively. During validation period, the model simulated runoff and sediment yield with percent deviations equal to +8.56 and +9.36, and Nash–Sutcliffe simulation coefficients equal to 0.81 and 0.80, respectively. The model tended to slightly under-predict runoff and sediment yield of higher magnitudes. The model performance was quite sensitive to soil parameters namely, rill erodibility, interrill erodibility, hydraulic conductivity, critical shear stress and Manning’s roughness coefficient with varying levels. The WEPP model picked up the hydrology associated with bund and water-harvesting tank, and simulated runoff and sediment yield well with overall deviations within ±10% and Nash–Sutcliffe simulation coefficients >0.80. Simulation results indicate that in high slope and high rainfall conditions of eastern Himalayan region of India where vegetative measures are not adequate to restrict soil loss within the permissible limit, the WEPP model can be applied to formulate structure-based management strategies to control soil loss and to develop water resources.     

基于坡向判断的分布式水文模型研究应用

针对西北内陆高寒山区的水文、气象特点，以网格为最小单元将流域离散。通过分析同一高程网格坡向不同及其对到达地面太阳短波辐射通量的影响，提出地形要素差异导致地面冷热源再分布，调控融雪出流量，继而将坡向判断也作为系统重要输入项之一嵌入到模型计算中。最后通过在每一栅格单元上采用融雪型新安江产流模型与SCS汇流模型，构建整个流域的分布式水文模型。该模型在甘肃省石羊河流域进行模拟研究，其结果令人满意。     

An integrated population,economic, and water resource model to address sustainable development questions for Botswana

Abstract:

An integrated population, economic, and water resource model was developed to address sustainable development questions for Botswana. raditionally, water resources planning models have considered the implications of different assumptions of population and economic growth on the sustainability of existing water resources supply; however, this model extends that capability to consider feedbacks from one model component to another. For example, the model has the unique capability to examine implications of changing water‐related diarrhea incidence on the health of the HIV/AIDS population. Investments in water supply and sanitation or in HIV/AIDS medication impact the health and productivity of the population. The water model uses a physically‐based hydrologic rainfall‐runoff model with surface and groundwater components to produce monthly runoff and groundwater recharge at the watershed scale. Botswana is divided into socioeconomic regions, and the water resources infrastructure is characterized by virtual reservoirs in each. The demographic sub‐model is a standard multi‐cohort model that forecasts the population by age, sex, rural or urban residence, education level, and HIV/AIDS status. The economic sub‐model is a computable general equilibrium model with three components: agriculture, non‐agricultural exports, and non‐tradables. The model runs an ensemble of scenarios, including climate change, HIV/AIDS, health, economic, and water conservation scenarios, whose output is probabilistic in nature. The three model components are described, with particular emphasis on the model linkages and the water sub‐component, and results are shown for a variety of scenarios.     

Comparison of Computer Models for Estimating Hydrology and Water Quality in an Agricultural Watershed

Various computer models, ranging from simple to complex, have been developed to simulate hydrology and water quality from field to watershed scales. However, many users are uncertain about which model to choose when estimating water quantity and quality conditions in a watershed. This study compared hydrologic/water quality models including Spreadsheet Tool for the Estimation of Pollutant Load (STEPL)-Purdue, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), High Impact Targeting (HIT), Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA), Pollutant Load (PLOAD), Spatially and Temporally Distributed Model for Phosphorus Management (STEM-P), Region 5, and ensemble modeling (using STEPL-Purdue, SWAT, L-THIA, PLOAD, and STEM-P). Model capabilities, inputs, and underlying methods to estimate streamflow, surface runoff, baseflow, nutrients, and sediment were examined. Uncalibrated, calibrated, and validated outputs of these models and uncalibrated ensemble modeling in estimating water quantity and quality for a 41.5 km² agricultural watershed in Northeastern Indiana were explored, and suggestions were provided on the selection and use of models. Models need to be selected carefully based on the simulation objectives, data availability, model characteristics, time constraints, and project budgets.

     

河流水文学若干研究领域的回顾与展望

就 2 1世纪的产汇流理论、流域定量地貌、河流洪水、河流泥沙、河流热状况与冰情、河流资源利用、河流水质与河流生态环境等河流水文学主要研究领域的发展前景作了初步的展望 :要进一步揭示不同气候和下垫面条件下的产汇流规律 ,研制预测功能强的流域水文模型 ,发展和应用数字流域 ,深入揭示复杂条件下的洪水运动规律 ,提出高精度的分析计算方法 ;水流动力学与泥沙动力学相耦合的产沙计算方法将得到实际应用 ,河流输沙机理将进一步被揭示 ;继续探索河冰形成及河流冰情变化的热力学和水力学机理 ,完善冰凌数学模型 ,进一步揭示河流水流挟带污染物质的运动机理 ,完善水质模型 ,提高计算精度 ;要采用多学科综合的手段 ,深入探讨人类活动对河流生态系统的影响