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1.
对南水北调工程解决中国北方用水问题的分析   总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13  
李思悦  张全发 《人民黄河》2005,27(8):28-29,43
简要介绍了南水北调工程,分析了调水后我国北方用水情况,对今后的用水及缺水情况进行了预测。分析了预测结果表明:调水后,黄河上游(西线受水区)基本能满足正常来水年年份用水;在中等枯水年份,2030年和2050年分别缺水80亿m^3和50亿m^3。整个中线受水区2020年缺水量高达207亿m^3。淮河流域(东线受水区)基本能满足2030年水平的需水要求,但2050年将缺水20~40亿m^3;山东半岛依然为严重缺水区,缺水量达38.911亿m^3。  相似文献   

2.
南水北调工程会引起所涉区域极端气候发生变化,同时极端气候事件对调水工程运行也存在影响。研究以1960—2020年气象观测数据为基础构建极端气象要素指标体系,采用变化范围法(RVA)与集对分析法(SPA)对南水北调影响区极端气象要素的改变程度进行量化计算,揭示了经济发展、气候变化与南水北调工程影响下区域极端气象要素的演变规律。结果表明:在经济发展与气候变化影响下,1960—2020年南水北调影响区极端气象要素指标综合改变度总体为上升趋势,并出现了明显的区域差异性,中线地区极端气候改变度显著大于东线,而两线水源区变化程度低于输水区和受水区;调水前后对比分析表明,工程调水对中线的影响大于东线,且受水区极端气象要素变化程度更为明显;对极端气象要素分析发现,极端蒸发受气候变化与经济发展影响显著,极端气温受调水工程影响变化较大,极端降水受外界扰动变化不明显。  相似文献   

3.
水资源价值的定量分析对于创建科学合理的水价体系和缓解缺水地区的水资源供需矛盾有着重要意义。通过效益分摊系数法计算了南水北调中线和东线受水区工业和农业单位用水的净效益,建立了以区域用水净效益最大为目标函数、以供需水量限制及调水水渠流量限制为约束条件的水资源优化配置模型。应用线性规划求解得到南水北调东线受水区黄河以南、山东半岛和黄河以北3个子区的水资源影子价格分别为1.00元/m3、4.31元/m3和3.89元/m3,南水北调中线受水区河南、河北、北京和天津4个子区的水资源影子价格分别为3.67元/m3、4.41元/m3、2.20元/m3和2.19元/m3。该结果即为水资源理论价值,可为南水北调受水区制定科学合理的水价标准和完善水价体系提供科学依据。  相似文献   

4.
针对南水北调东线工程江苏段受水区的水资源调度与配置问题,以受水区总缺水量最小和泵站总能耗最小为目标,建立南水北调东线工程江苏段水资源优化调度模型。将南水北调工程调水与本地水资源进行联合配置,并以经济效益、社会效益、环境效益最大为目标,构建南水北调东线工程江苏段水资源配置模型。采用基本方案和节水方案进行了模型模拟,结果表明,在降水保证率分别为50%、75%和95% 3种情况下,受水区节水方案缺水率比基本方案分别下降了2.91%、3.61%和3.83%;受水区节水方案下各工程基本完成了受水区的供水任务,且优先利用了泵站单位能耗较小的运西线进行调水,说明优化调度配置方式在保障受水区用水的基础上,能够以更为经济节能的方式运行。  相似文献   

5.
南水北调中线水源区与受水区降水丰枯遭遇分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
王政祥  张明波 《人民长江》2008,39(17):103-105
利用南水北调中线水源区和受水区40余站1954~1998年的降水资料,计算分析了汉江水源区,唐白河、淮河、海河南北受水区降水统计特征及水源区与受水区丰枯遭遇特征.结论为汉江水源区年降水量大于各受水区,水源区降水年内分配较受水区均匀、降水年际变化比受水区小.水源区与各受水区同丰、同枯遭遇概率较小,能正常发挥调水效益的丰枯遭遇概率在67%~82%,从南至北增大,各区连续枯水年时段不多.  相似文献   

6.
基于常用的趋势检验方法,对南水北调中线水源区和海河受水区降水序列进行趋势诊断,据此对其变化趋势进行了识别;基于历史实测和未来气候模式降水数据,通过构建边缘分布模型和Copula联合分布模型,来描述降水序列的独立结构,用于定量评估气候变化对水源区和海河受水区降水丰枯遭遇的影响。研究结果表明:过去55 a水源区和海河受水区降水量呈现为不显著的下降趋势;在气候变化RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,水源区与海河受水区降水量的丰枯遭遇概率均呈现为增加的趋势,调水有利组合降水量遭遇概率平均分别增加了3.58%和5.80%;同枯遭遇概率均小于30%,说明工程实施调水的可能性。对气候变化影响下的丰枯遭遇开展研究,可为南水北调中线工程的正常运行和水资源调度提供理论参考。  相似文献   

7.
<正>南水北调中线来水特点要求受水区采取直供与蓄供相结合的供水方式,以充分利用引江水,提高供水保证率。现就受水区"地下水库"与中线来水联合调度作一探讨。1.南水北调中线来水特性1956~1997年,引江中线逐旬供河北省水量过程线具有以下特点:在长系列1512旬中,连续旬来水量约为8300万m~3,占44.8%,连续等于或超过9000万m~3的占49.8%,但长系列中有12a  相似文献   

8.
南水北调东、中线一期工程对受水区生态环境影响分析   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
为了定量回答南水北调工程对受水区生态环境的影响,对2000年以来东、中线一期工程受水区生态环境状况和所辖72座设市城市用水状况进行了统计分析,得出受水区生态环境和地下水循环更新能力正在退化;进而采用水量平衡分析方法,从一期工程对缓解受水区干旱程度、减少地下水超采、置换城市挤占农业用水量、调水可增加农业和环境用水量等方面定量分析了一期工程对受水区生态环境的改善作用。结果表明,一期工程对受水区城市供水和农业生态环境改善具有较显著的作用,但不能从根本上解决地下水超采问题;充分发挥一期工程效益需节水、调水、治污三项措施同步实施。  相似文献   

9.
南水北调中线水源与受水区降水丰枯遭遇分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用南水北调中线水源区和受水区40余站1954~1998年的降水资料,计算分析了汉江水源区,唐白河、淮河、海河南北受水区降水统计特征及水源区与受水区丰枯遭遇特征。结论为汉江水源区年降水量大于各受水区,水源区降水年内分配较受水区均匀、降水年际变化比受水区小。水源区与各受水区同丰、同枯遭遇概率较小,能正常发挥调水效益的丰枯遭遇概率在67%~82%,从南至北增大,各区连续枯水年时段不多。  相似文献   

10.
为给南水北调工程规划与运行提供科学依据,基于比《南水北调工程总体规划》制定水平年更加完整的水文观测数据识别2001年以来工程区降水、径流变化特征,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、小波分析等方法分析了比较期(2001—2016年)相对于基准期(1956—2000年)的降水、径流统计特性差异和变化特征。结果表明:相对于基准期,比较期调水区降水量变化不明显,长江大通水文站天然径流量下降3.5%,调水区水资源条件较为稳定;比较期受水区降水量较基准期基本无变化,天然径流量较基准期上升3.9%,但山东省、河北省和天津市受水区天然径流量下降6.6%,3省市天然径流量呈明显衰减态势。  相似文献   

11.
The international community has limited support for Third World countries that apply politically unacceptable measures to their water crises. For political reasons, the community also selectively dismisses international instruments governing military actions, the United Nations Charter and the International Law on Water, worsening the crises. The Middle East conflict offers testimony where instruments have been continuously violated, allowing expropriation of the water of weaker nations and groups. Israel, with a population twice that of the Palestinian territories, uses 95% of the fresh water utilized in Historic Palestine, leaving 5% for the Palestinians. Though alarmed with Aral Sea conditions, the community ignores the polluted lower Jordan River, the declining Dead Sea and the destruction of the Palestine aquifers. Middle East agreements will set precedents for addressing international water crises. The community must reverse its past silence and provide equitable, effective reallocation of the Middle East's resources. It cannot afford to leave a destabilizing legacy.  相似文献   

12.
Although many researchers have claimed that the Middle East faces a desperate situation with regard to future water use, few have provided detailed analyses as to why this should be the case. In this paper it is claimed that with the changing nature of the economies of the countries of the region, together with rapid population growth, new water policies are required which recognize the growing significance of the service sector of the economy and the importance of urban communities. These policies should focus on the importance of commercial/industrial systems as the main wealth providers in the 21st century. Detailed analyses of the available water resources reveal that most of the countries of the Middle East will be able to meet the water needs of their citizens up to 2025 without too much difficulty. To achieve this the reallocation of at least some irrigation water to other uses will be necessary. However, the volumes of water needed are in many cases not huge. Three countries, Jordan, Oman and Tunisia, will experience major problems of water supply, but only Jordan can be regarded as approaching a crisis situation. Even here desalinated water could at least alleviate the situation for urban dwellers, though costs would be high.  相似文献   

13.
One of the most important resources for socioeconomic development in arid and semi-arid countries is water, and its scarcity in the Middle East has been a key factor in war and peace-making.As water shortages occur and full utilization is reached, water policies tend to be framed more and more in zero-sum terms, adding to the probability of discord. The aim of this study is to provide some innovative technological answers to the fundamental questions of how to sustain the water supply without causing diverse effects on the ecosystem both now and for the 21st century. This paper evaluates several non-conventional approaches highlighting the economic and environmental gains of co-generation applications that would have the potential to resolve this persistent problem, and thus contribute towards peace among the water users in the Middle East. Priority of development projects including viability of (1) the strategic use of such resources as brackish water, seawater and reclaimed wastewater, and (2) the transboundary transport of water is preliminarily evaluated by taking into account the four feasibility elements 'technical', 'environment', 'economy' and 'politics'. Water conservation and management including water pricing scenarios are essential confidence-building measures to manage the water resources in the region. In this circumstance, non-conventional strategic alternatives including desalination and reuse of treated wastewater will become significantly important in water resources development to supply new additional fresh waters in the 21st century.  相似文献   

14.
采用主分量分析(EOF)、旋转主分量分析(REOF)、小波分析方法,对广东省1954—2007年春季(2—5月)降水标准化距平场进行分区,并对春季降水的空间分布特征、时间变化规律进行分析。结果表明,广东省春季平均降水量和标准差变化较大;春季降水的主要空间分布型表现为全省一致偏旱(涝)型;降水区域大致可划分为4个区,即粤东区、粤北区、粤中区、粤西区。除了粤东以外,其余区域都存显著周期性变化。  相似文献   

15.
Recent papers have claimed that in the Middle East the pressure on available water resources might result in hostilities between certain states. This paper argues that such wars are unlikely given that most water in the region is being used, mostly inefficiently, for irrigation purposes. It is claimed that the water problems of most countries could be solved by diverting a relatively small amount of water from irrigation to higher value urban/industrial uses. Food production would suffer somewhat but the richer countries could make good these losses by purchases on the world market. Inevitably, irrigated agriculture in the Middle East must contract as growing populations demand more water for their needs.  相似文献   

16.
As we approach the next century, more than a quarter of the world's population or a third of the population in developing countries live in regions that will experience severe water scarcity. This paper reports on a study to project water supply and demand for 118 countries over the 1990-2025 period. The nature and geographic focus of growing water scarcity are identified. In the semi-arid regions of Asia and the Middle East, which include some of the major breadbaskets of the world, the ground water table is falling at an alarming rate. There is an urgent need to focus the attention of both professionals and policy makers on the problems of ground water depletion, which must be seen as the major threat to food security in the coming century.  相似文献   

17.
18.
For millennia, countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have developed laws, regulations and other rules to govern their scarce water. These laws have been updated in recent years. This review of the legal frameworks (including regulations, decrees and other rules) reveals both progress and gaps in managing water quality, water quantity and procedural aspects. Of note, while the general frameworks are usually in place, in many instances the necessary details are lacking to give effect to the goals. However, in some instances the legal frameworks governing water lack certain key principles or approaches. In order to effectively meet the growing demands on their water resources, MENA countries will need to further strengthen and develop their legal frameworks.  相似文献   

19.
城市节水和污水再生利用是实现健康水循环的必然要求,也是可持续水管理的重要内容.将我国城市节水和污水再生利用与南水北调战略从经济、环境和生态等多方面进行了比较,结论表明,城市节水和污水再生利用策略在水供需目标的有效性、经济性、决策风险、资源可靠性、生态环境影响、公众可接受性和用水效率等方面具有明显的优势.从技术进步的角度来看,城市节水和污水再生利用潜力的发挥,将显著降低南水北调所需的调水量,对当前我国调水区域的城市水资源管理战略将产生重大的影响.  相似文献   

20.
The future economy of the Middle East countries (GDP growth) depends on the availability of fresh water for domestic and agricultural sectors. Saudi Arabia, for example, consumes 275 L/day per capita of water that is generated from desalination process using 134 x 106 kWh of electricity. With 6 % population growth rate, demand for fresh water from fossil fuel based desalination plants will grow at an alarming rate. It has been reported that Saudi Arabia’s reliance on fossil fuels to generate electricity and generate fresh water through desalination using the same energy source is economically and politically unsustainable. This may lead to destabilisation of the global economy. However, Saudi Arabia has large geothermal resources along the Red Sea coast that can be developed to generate power and support the generation of fresh water through desalination. The cost of fresh water can be further lowered from the current US$ 0.03/m3. Among the gulf countries, Saudi Arabia can become the leader in controlling CO2 emissions and mitigating the impact on climate change and agricultural production. This will enable the country to meet the growing demand of food and energy for the future population for several decades and to reduce food imports.  相似文献   

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