Large-Scale Assessment of Drought Variability Based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 Re-Analyses

The impacts of different spatial resolutions and different data assimilation schemes of the available re-analysis data sets (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40) on the assessment of drought variability are analysed. Particular attention has been devoted to the analysis of the possible existence of a linear trend in the climatic signal. The long-term aspects of drought over the globe during the last forty years have been evaluated by computing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on 24-month time scale. The SPI, in fact, seems to be a useful tool for monitoring dry and wet periods on multiple time scales and comparing climatic conditions of areas governed by different hydrological regimes. To unveil possible discrepancies between the analyses carried out with the two data sets, we studied the leading space-time variability of drought by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) to the SPI time series. Results suggest that on the global scale, the two re-analyses agree in their first principal component score, but not in the associated loading: both re-analyses capture a linear trend, though the areas where this feature should be most likely observed are not uniquely identified by the two data sets. Moreover, while the ERA-40 unveils the presence of a weak net “global” trend towards wet conditions, the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis suggests that the areas in the world characterised by positive/negative trends balance to zero. At large regional scale, a good agreement of the results with those obtained from the observations are found for the United Stated, while for the European sector the two re-analyses show remarkable differences both in the first loading and in representing the timing of the wet and dry periods. Also for these areas a linear trend, superposed on other short-term fluctuations, is detectable in the first principal component of the SPI field.     

新疆极端降水事件时空变化特征研究

基于新疆1960—2011年的日降水量数据,选取持续干燥指数、持续湿润指数、年总降水量、强降水天数、强降水量、1 d最大降水量、5 d最大降水量和普通日降水强度8个极端降水指标,采用线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验及主成分分析法研究新疆极端降水的时空分布特征及演变趋势。结果表明:时间变化上,新疆极端降水的持续湿润指数均呈上升趋势,持续干燥指数呈下降趋势,表明新疆降水量总体呈增加趋势;空间变化上,南疆、北疆极端降水指标的年际变化表现出明显差异,北疆湿润指数大、年际变化率大,南疆湿润指数小、年际变化率小;极端降水指标基本上在1986年、1987年发生突变,各指标突变前后的变化率存在明显差异;时间上的主成分分析表明降水量整体增加,干燥程度下降;空间上的主成分分析表明,北疆降水量多于南疆,南疆较北疆干旱。     

Differences in Spatial Patterns of Drought on Different Time Scales: An Analysis of the Iberian Peninsula

The differences in spatial patterns of drought over a range of time scales were analysed by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In a climatic area with a wide range of precipitation characteristics (the Iberian Peninsula), Pearson III distribution is flexible enough to calculate the drought index on different time scales. The Pearson III distribution was adapted to precipitation frequencies at time scales of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Spatial patterns of drought were analysed by Principal Component Analysis. The number of components found increased as the time scale did, which indicates great spatial complexity in drought analysis and uncertainty in drought classification, mainly at scales of 24 or 36 months, since the relationships between SPI series of observatories becomes more distant as the time scale increases. We concluded that there were no homogeneous regions with similar drought patterns that could be used for effective drought management or early warning.     

Spatial Variability of Drought: An Analysis of the SPI in Sicily

An analysis of drought in Sicily from 1926 to 1996 is presented.In identifying drought over the region, both the NCEP/NCARreanalysis precipitation data and those observed in 43 gauges,located quite uniformly over the territory of the Island, areused. Drought occurrence is estimated by means of theStandardized Precipitation Index (SPI). To study long-termdrought variability, a Principal Component Analysis was appliedto the SPI field.Results suggest that the entire Island is characterised by adrought variability with a multi-year fluctuations and atendency towards drier periods from the seventies onward. Apreliminary comparison between results obtained using themeteorological large-scale analysis and that derived from actualobservations on the ground shows a general good agreement,although further efforts are needed to get a better downscalingof the large-scale precipitation fields. Furthermore, byapplying orthogonal rotations to the principal componentpatterns, it has been found that three distinct areas havingcoherent climatic variability may be identified.Finally, the sensitivity of the SPI values on the calibrationperiod is also investigated.     

Towards a Drought Watch System based on Spatial SPI

Regional Drought can be assessed through various meaningfulprocedures mainly related to the expected consequences. However, a general knowledge of the occurrence of drought, thearea which is affected, its severity and its duration are ofgreat importance for a series of decisions, which may beappropriate for a variety of activities. From the existingsimple and popular indices used for the estimation of drought,the Standardised Precipitation Index, known as SPI, seems to winuniversal applicability. A method based on the estimation of SPIover a geographical area and its use for characterising drought,is presented in this paper. Applications of the method arepresented using a digital terrain model and a simple computercalculating routine. It is shown that the proposed procedurecan be easily applied and can support a Drought Watch System foran area of mesoscale dimensions.     

辽西代表地区旱涝分析研究

根据辽西地区的地形特点,以阜新为典型研究对象,对该地区的降水资料、气象资料进行整理,计算降水距与Z指标两个参数进行综合计算,根据计算的结果对阜新地区的旱涝情况进行分析,得到该地区1997—2006年的评价结论。在此基础之上,对降水距与Z指标的应用情况进行总结,归纳出二者的应用特点。     

基于CI指数的渭河流域干旱时空演变特征研究

根据渭河流域1961—2014年27个气象站的气象数据,利用综合气象干旱指数(CI)研究了渭河流域近54 a干旱时空演变特征。结果表明:渭河流域的干旱持续时间有微弱增加趋势,干旱持续时间序列不存在明显突变点;春、夏、秋、冬四季干旱站次比多年均值分别为50.7%、42.7%、37.5%、60.9%,其中春、秋、冬三季干旱站次比增加,秋季增加趋势显著;重度及以上干旱四季频发,但冬季干旱站次比小;干旱持续时间以及中度以上干旱频率西北高、东南低,东部华县站周边干旱持续时间较长;春、夏、秋、冬四季中度以上干旱频率均值分别为35.2%、26.2%、22.4%、23.8%。     

集对分析法在陕西省单站旱涝等级划分中的应用

我国单站旱涝等级划分尚未形成统一的评价指标体系,往往导致同一旱涝状况下旱涝等级评价结果存在差异.尝试将集对分析法应用于陕西省单站旱涝等级划分,提出了一种划分旱涝等级的新思路.结果表明,方法能综合运用各旱涝指数,不仅可以消除Z指数、标准化降水指数、降水距平百分率等降水指数考虑因素单一带来的不利影响,也能削弱相对湿润度指数、K指标等由于作物种类、气温条件等的影响而引起的评估偏差,较之传统的单一指标评价法更为客观合理.     

近50年来浙江省干旱规律时空分析

利用浙江省近50年降水资料,基于最优区域旱涝指标采用克里金空间插值方法对浙江省旱涝进行时空规律分析和等级评定。结果表明,浙江省发生干旱频繁,两年一旱,发生大旱以上的频率较高,连旱严重,近年干旱有加重的趋势;同时干旱呈现明显的区域性,发生重旱时波及范围广,各分区发生干旱频率在16%~26%之间,仅有4个分区不易波及。     

Highlights of Drought Policy and Related Science in Australia and the U.S.A.

Abstract

Patterns of water supply and use in Australia and the U.S.A. differ in many ways. This results in different perceptions concerning the nature of drought and policy approaches to its management. This paper discusses the differences and similarities and explores lessons that policy makers in both countries can learn from one another. A key difference between the two countries is that whereas drought is perceived in Australia essentially in terms of its impact on agriculture, in the U.S. both perceptions and policy are also heavily influenced by the impact of drought on urban communities. This has led to different policy emphases. In 1992 Australia established its National Drought Policy; the U.S. is presently considering the adoption of a national drought policy. These policies highlight drought being accepted as part of natural climate variability, rather than as a natural disaster. They also emphasize the protection of the natural resource base.     

An Application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR Datasets for Drought Variability Analysis in Iran

The lack of reliable and updated precipitation datasets is the most important limitation that hinders establishing a drought monitoring and early warning system in Iran. To overcome this obstacle, we have evaluated the applicability of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR precipitation datasets for drought analysis in Iran. For this purpose, drought variability across the country has been analyzed through the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on 12-month time scale based on the common period 1951?C2005. For each dataset, by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) to the SPI field and Varimax rotation, the studied area has been regionalized into a few distinctive sub-regions characterized by independent climatic variability. Results have been checked against observations at 32 rain gauge stations having reliable data for the study period. Both GPCC and NCEP/NCAR datasets identify the same sub-regions of drought variability and they are in good agreement with observations. However, the NCEP rotated principal component scores associated with the sub-regions show different time variability with respect to the behaviours captured by GPCC, on one hand, and observations, on the other hand. It seems that, in central Iran such differences concern mainly the period before the seventies. Thus, the results suggest that GPCC dataset is a useful tool for drought monitoring in Iran and it can be used to complement the information provided by rain gauge observations. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset shows a better agreement with observations for the period 1970?C2005 than for 1951?C2005, and its discrepancies in the regional time variability of drought with respect to GPCC and observations should be taken into account when periods before the seventies are considered.     

辽宁省干旱分析与抗旱减灾对策

指出辽宁省干旱发生的自然规律和特点,分析了干旱产生的经济社会原因,有针对性地提出了相应的对策,为辽宁省抗旱减灾提供参考.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠区地下水空间信息统计特征与变异性分析

通过采集水样、开展地下水现场调查,以及地下水化学成分实验分析等,本文分析和论述了塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘安迪尔河下游、塔里木沙漠公路沿线地下水化学成分等空间信息的统计特征及变异性。沙漠区地下水化学成分单因子与偏相关分析表明,沙漠公路北段地下水矿化度与Na 、Mg2 、Ca2 的偏相关性非常显著,与HCO-3的偏相关性较显著,与其它离子的偏相关性不显著。沙漠公路南段地下水矿化度与SO42-、HCO3-、Cl-偏相关性极显著,与Na 、Ca2 、Mg2 偏相关性较显著,与其它离子偏相关性不显著。安迪尔河下游地下水矿化度与HCO-3、SO42-、Cl-、Na 偏相关性极显著,与Mg2 、Ca2 偏相关性较显著,与其它离子偏相关性不显著。利用SPSS统计软件计算地下水中主要离子变异系数,结果表明沙漠公路南段地下水位埋深和电导率的变异系数明显地小于安迪尔河下游和沙漠公路北段,属于低变异强度;安迪尔河下游区地下水位埋深的变异系数较大,属于高变异。沙漠公路北段地下水化学成分各观测值平均最小,并具有最小的变异系数;沙漠公路南段次之,变异系数居中;而在安迪尔河下游普遍较大,变异系数相应较大。电导率表现出相反性质,平均值越小,变异系数越大。     

近55年珠江上游流域降水演变规律

采用线性回归、5年滑动平均、Mann-Kendall趋势检验及小波分析等方法,对珠江上游流域1954年-2008年降水序列进行研究分析。结果表明:近55年来,珠江上游流域年降水量总体呈不显著增加趋势;各季节降水均呈现无显著变化趋势;除1月降水增加显著外,其余各月均无明显趋势变化。流域各站点的年、季节降水趋势基本上也无显著变化。除年降水量在1963年发生了显著突变外,季节和大部分月降水均无显著突变发生。年和季节降水量的相位变化时间尺度大体一致,均存在多年尺度的变化特征。     

安徽省空气质量时空分布特征分析

针对我国环境空气质量现状及研究热点区域,为了解安徽省空气质量状况,对安徽省16个覆盖空气质量监测站点的地级市的空气质量进行分析。根据2015年1—6月份期间的空气质量指数监测数据,利用Arc GIS和Sigma Plot等分析统计软件,初步获得安徽省环境空气质量的时空分布格局。结果表明:研究期间安徽省各地级市的空气质量整体呈随时间而提高的趋势;省内空气质量存在一定程度的南北空间差异,即南部城市的空气质量优于北部城市,且以合肥、淮北空气质量为最差,以黄山、池州空气质量为最优,城市工业产业发展状况是影响其空气质量的重要因子之一;各市AQI存在不同程度的月内波动性,空气质量越好的月份AQI的值域分布越集中,空气质量越差的月份AQI的值域分布越离散。     

基于PDSI的甘肃省干旱时空变化特征分析

针对甘肃省旱灾频繁、危害大的现状,开展了干旱时空变化特征分析。选取甘肃省境内的30个气象台站1951—2010年的月降水量、月平均风速、日最高温度、日最低温度、日照时数、日平均水汽压、可能日照时数等资料,基于帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI),采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法对干旱时空变化特征进行研究。结果表明:全省旱情呈现微弱缓解的趋势;20世纪50年代、70年代、90年代及21世纪前10 a的中后期干旱状况明显加重,20世纪60年代、80年代干旱状况有所缓解。对中等干旱、严重干旱和极端干旱的可能发生频次和空间分布进行分析,发现全省旱情地域差别较大,总体呈现"两头重、中间轻"的特点。     

彭阳县饮用地下水氟离子含量空间变异性及其与地质环境的关系

通过对彭阳县74个饮用地下水进行取样分析,应用地质统计学的理论和方法,通过计算变异函数和克里金插值,分析研究了彭阳县饮用地下水中氟离子含量空间变异特征和空间分布特征,讨论了氟离子含量空间分布特征与地质环境的关系.结果表明:彭阳县存在引用地下水氟离子含量超标的现象,属于典型的高氟地下水区;地下水氟离子含量呈现明显的各向同性特征,在一定范围内具有很强的空间自相关性,且空间变异性是由大尺度的区域性因素引起的,而随机因素的影响不显著;空间分布上呈现出由南北向中间和由西向东减小的趋势;地下水中氟离子含量的差异是在各种地质环境因素共同作用下形成的,是地下水径流过程中各种因素综合影响的结果.     

近50年来淮河流域降水时空变化特征分析

以淮河流域及周边地区48个气象站点1961年-2010年共50年逐日降水过程为基础资料,以地理信息系统技术为数据处理平台,结合Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验、Morlet小波变换和集对分析法(SPA)等,分析淮河流域年降水量时间序列趋势性、周期性以及降水集中度、集中期、降水质心、旱涝发生频率、旱涝交替在空间上的分布特征。结果表明:①近50年来,年降水量整体呈略微减少趋势,南部地区降水增加,北部地区降水减少;②年际变化上存在27年的主周期,年内分配集中在夏季,且北部地区降水更为集中;③干旱易发区分布面积较广,洪涝易发区分布相对较集中,上游和中游部分地区为旱涝交替易发区。     

Regional Drought Modes in Iran Using the SPI: The Effect of Time Scale and Spatial Resolution

In the present paper, regional drought modes in Iran are identified applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Varimax rotation to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on different time scales. Data used include gridded monthly precipitation covering the period 1951–2007 retrieved from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) archive with different spatial resolutions (2.5, 1 and 0.5° resolution). The objective of the study is twofold: (i) Investigate the stability of drought spatial modes as a function of the SPI time scales used for monitoring the different kinds of drought, (ii) Evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of gridded data on drought regionalization. For the coarse spatial resolution of 2.5°, results show four drought modes of distinct variability, which remain quite stable when the SPI time scale is varied from 1- to 24-month. Differently, for higher spatial resolutions drought modes appear more sensitive to the index time scale and become less spatially homogeneous as the time scale is increased. Moreover, the number of identified modes (sub-regions) may reduce to three or two, but in all cases the most well defined sub-region appears to be the southern one. This suggests that both the spatial resolution of precipitation data and the time scale may affect drought regionalization, i.e. the number of drought modes and their spatial homogeneity.     

黄河源区径流时空特性及相关因素分析

利用有关软件,选定径流过程中的显著性因子如上年降水量、汛期月降水量及上月降水量、地温等,分析了黄河源区径流的一般特点、统计特征以及径流与降水、地温的相关性。结果表明：黄河源区汛期降水一径流的相关性较好,年降水量与径流过程的相关系数一般较大,说明地下水补给的作用显著;黄河沿以上地区径流一降水的相关性较差,但与地温的相关性较好,说明下垫面条件对径流调蓄的作用显著。