Facing Water Scarcity in Jordan

Abstract

Jordan is extremely water-scarce with just 167 m³ per capita per year to meet domestic, industrial, agricultural, tourism, and environmental demands. The heavy exploitation of water resources has contributed to declines in the levels of aquifers and the Dead Sea. Rapid growth in demand, particularly for higher quality water for domestic, industrial, and tourism uses, is significantly increasing pressure on agricultural and environmental uses of water, both of which must continue to adapt to reduced volumes and lower quality water. The agricultural sector has begun to respond by improving irrigation efficiency and increasing the use of recycled water. Total demand for water still exceeds renewable supplies while inadequate treatment of sewage used for irrigation creates potential environmental and health risks and presents agricultural marketing challenges that undermine the competitiveness of exports. The adaptive capability of the natural environment may already be past sustainable limits with oasis wetlands having been most seriously affected. Development of new water resources is extremely expensive in Jordan with an average investment cost of US$4 to $5 per cubic meter. This paper examines four integrated water resources management (IWRM) approaches of relevance to Jordan: water reuse, demand management, energy-water linkages, and transboundary water management. While progress in Jordan has been made, the Ministry of Water and Irrigation continues to be concerned about the acute water scarcity the country faces as well as the need to continue working with concerned stakeholders to assure future water supplies.     

Optimal Size of Auxiliary Storage Reservoir for Rain Water Harvesting and Better Crop Planning in a Minor Irrigation Project

The scope and feasibility of auxiliary storage reservoir in the outlet command of a flow based minor irrigation project was studied to overcome the inadequate irrigation water availability during the dry season. A multi objective optimization model was developed to determine the optimal size of auxiliary storage reservoir and optimal cropping pattern. Assuming that about 50% main reservoir capacity water will be available for irrigating dry season crops and fixing the first priority level of the objective function as maximization of net seasonal benefit and maximization of cropped area, the optimal surface area for auxiliary storage reservoir as the percentage of the command area was obtained as 17.40% and 10.92%, respectively. The performance of the minor irrigation project significantly increased due to provision of auxiliary storage reservoir. The economic analysis also revealed that the intervention is economically viable.     

Simulation-Optimization Modeling for Conjunctive Use Management under Hydrological Uncertainty

The canal water supply, which is the only source of irrigation, in the rice-dominated cropping system of the Hirakud canal command (eastern India) is able to meet only 54 % of the irrigation demand at 90 % probability of exceedance. Hence, considering groundwater as the supplemental source of irrigation, conjunctive use management study by combined simulation-optimization modelling was undertaken in order to predict the maximum permissible groundwater pumpage from the command area. Further, optimal land and water resources allocation model was developed to determine the optimal cropping pattern for maximizing net annual return. The modelling results suggested that 2.0 and 2.3 million m³ of groundwater can be pumped from the bottom aquifer during monsoon and non-monsoon seasons, respectively, at 90 % probability of exceedance of rainfall and canal water availability (PERC). Optimal cropping patterns and pumping strategies can lead to about 51.3–12.5 % increase in net annual return from the area at 10–90 % PERC. The sensitivity analysis of the model indicates that the variation in the market price of crops has very high influence on the optimal solution followed by the cost of cultivation and cultivable area. Finally, different future scenarios of land and water use were formulated for the command area. The adoption of optimal cropping patterns and optimal pumping strategies is strongly recommended for sustainable management of available land and water resources of the canal command under hydrological uncertainties.     

Role of Virtual Water in Optimizing Water Resources Management in Jordan

Role of virtual water (VW) in optimizing water resources management in Jordan, a far water-short country, was explored by calculating VW content of imported commodities and their costs. Feasibility of farming and water required to produce all crops growing in Jordan were evaluated using net return per unit volume of water and VW embedded in unit mass of production. The results of these analyses showed that there were regional differences in crop profitability and thus net return from unit volume of irrigation water. This was attributed to variations in agro-climatic zones punctuated by production and irrigation technologies and access to water resources. In this regard, opportunity cost of water should be considered when allocating water to different consumption sectors. Agricultural systems generating net profits less than an arbitrary limit of $1.0?m^?3 of irrigation water and producing yield at water use efficiency of 50?C60?m³?ton^?1 or more were viewed not feasible. The key challenge facing decision makers would be to ensure that the opportunity cost of water was incorporated into the analysis process when determining future cropping pattern. Such a cost of water should be combined with crop-embedded VW analysis and expected net return from unit volume of irrigation water. Therefore, water allocation mechanism (e.g. water market) need to be developed for more efficient water use than the commonly practiced farm quota. Optimization of the usage of the limited water resources can be envisaged by continuous imports of VW, especially that embedded in cereal, oil, meat, live animals and sugar. Appropriate amendment of water legislations and concerned institutions are encouraged to provide better guidelines to policy makers, water managers, extension and advisory services, water use associations and farmers. Optimization of water resources management could be based on contract farming to ensure that water allocation and cropping pattern respond to water scarcity. Furthermore, Jordan should concentrate on production and export of crops having low VW contents and high return per m³.     

Incorporating Virtual Water into Water Management: A British Columbia Example

Virtual water is the water required to produce food or a commodity, and includes rainwater in addition to irrigation and the water required to grow feed in livestock systems. Measuring virtual water is a useful concept in assessing water management as it permits the comparison of crops and livestock from the perspective of embedded water. To evaluate trade-offs in water allocation in countries like Canada with large regional variability in climate, virtual water should be calculated on a watershed scale. Two watersheds in Canada were selected representing wet and dry regions, and virtual water requirements for crop and livestock products were evaluated. For both the Lower Fraser Valley and the Okanagan basins, the results indicate that the most water demanding agricultural activities are livestock and fodder production. In the Lower Fraser basin, berry crops require 32 Mm³ of virtual water per year and have a potential value of $95 million. In contrast, the major fruit crops in the Okanagan require 63 Mm³ of virtual water per year and have a potential value of $95 million. In contrast, the major fruit crops in the Okanagan require 63 Mm³ of virtual water per year and have a potential value of 68 million. Blueberries and grapes which have moderately high virtual water contents have been expanding in the Lower Fraser and Okanagan basins respectively. Water to grow feed dominates overall animal virtual water requirements. Livestock requires nearly 4.5 times more virtual water per year than crops in the Lower Fraser, poultry and dairy having the largest virtual water requirements. In the dry Okanagan basin the total virtual water requirements for crops and livestock are similar. To accommodate future growth, decisions on water management will need to be made, particularly in dry basins such as the Okanagan. Virtual water calculations provide information that can assist decision makers in the strategic choices of reallocation and conservation water use.     

基于Nerlove方法的塔里木河流域农业水资源配置模型

收集2006—2017年塔里木河流域5地州的3种主要农作物价格和种植面积数据,运用Nerlove模型预测未来小麦、玉米和棉花的种植面积,并将预测值作为输入数据引入到水资源配置中,以区域农业用水经济收益最大为目标,考虑可用水量、最大最小灌溉用水需求等约束,构建农业水资源优化配置模型。结果表明:Nerlove模型可以很好地反映大多数农作物与价格的供给响应关系;相较于现状年,5地州3种农作物规划年的预测种植面积,除了和田的玉米出现负增长,其他地州均为正增长;分配总水量为185.622万m³,且空间分配极不均匀;总收益为103.865亿元,农作物分配水量越多,其经济收益越高。     

Conjunctive Water Use Planning in an Irrigation Command Area

In the present study, an integrated soil water balance algorithm was coupled to a non-linear optimization model in order to carry out water allocation planning in complex deficit agricultural water resources systems based on an economic efficiency criterion. The LINGO 10.0, optimization package has been used to evolve at optimal allocation plan of surface and ground water for irrigation of multiple crops. The proposed model was applied for Qazvin Irrigation Command Area, a semi-arid region in Iran. Various scenarios of conjunctive use of surface and ground water along-with current and proposed cropping pattern have been explored. Some deficit irrigation practices were also investigated. The results indicate that conjunctive use practices are feasible and can be easily implemented in the study area, which would enhance the overall benefits from cropping activities. The study provides various possible operational scenarios of the branch canals of the command area in the common and dry condition, which can help managers in decision making for the optimum allocation plans of water resources within the different irrigation districts. The findings demonstrate that for deficit irrigation options, the mining allowance of ground water value of the command area is greatly reduced and ground water withdrawal may be also restricted to the recharge to maintain the river–aquifer equilibrium.     

Sensitivity Analysis of Coupled Hydro-Economic Models: Quantifying Climate Change Uncertainty for Decision-Making

The paper assessed the sensitivity of an integrated hydro-economic model, to provide a quantitative range of uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on water balance components and water use in the agricultural sector of Apulia region located in a semi-arid Mediterranean climate area in southern Italy. Results show that the impacts of climate change are expressed in the future by an increase in the net irrigation requirements (NIRs) of all crops. Total cultivated land is reduced by 8.5 % in the future, and the percentage of irrigated land decreases from 31 to 22 % of total agricultural land. Reduction in the irrigated land, together with the variation in the cropping pattern and the adoption of the different irrigation techniques, led to a decrease in water demand for irrigation across the entire region. The sensitivity analysis shows that the groundwater recharge has the lowest correlation to climatic parameters. Results are addressed to the scientific community and decision makers to support the design of adequate adaptation policies for efficient water management under the severe drought conditions that are likely to occur in the region according to climate change projections.     

玛纳斯河灌区地表水与地下水联合调度模型

通过分析新疆农八师玛纳斯河灌区水资源供需状况,结合灌区的灌溉系统、农作物种类及灌溉制度,建立了以灌区地下水抽水总量最小为主要目标,以灌区农业经济总效益最大为次要目标的地表水与地下水联合调度模型,并采用目标规划法对模型进行了求解,得到了在不同保证率下灌区地表水和地下水联合调度方案及农作物种植面积。结果表明:灌区供需水高峰期不一致和灌溉系统的蓄水、输配水能力不足是产生灌区水资源供需矛盾的主要原因,应适当调整灌区农业种植结构,改造灌区水利工程。     

小塔山水库水资源配置及保障措施研究

在小塔山水库可供水量分析基础上,合理规划配置小塔山水库供水量,并制定供水分配原则及方案。针对农灌用水不足的问题,从增加小塔山水库蓄水量、推广农灌节水、加强小塔山水库外来水补给以及水库运行管理等多方面采取相应措施予以保障。通过对小塔山水库水资源合理配置,可实现小塔山水库水资源的可持续利用,在充分保障赣榆区居民生活用水的同时,也满足农灌用水基本需求,有效解决生活用水和农灌用水争水矛盾问题。     

A Framework for Wastewater Reuse in Jordan: Utilizing a Modified Wastewater Reuse Index

Pressing water scarcity in Jordan rapidly increases the demands of marginal water resources for the agricultural sector. Water management studies reveal that no single source could fully solve the nation??s water shortage and many integrated actions are needed to ensure water availability, suitability and sustainability. Yet, among these options treated wastewater has the largest potential to augment water supply in the near future, thereby narrowing the gap between available freshwater and total demand. Indeed, treated wastewater could be a valuable source for irrigation in the agricultural sector and an increasing percentage of irrigated areas, especially in the Jordan Valley, are currently using treated wastewater. With a fast growing population and expansion of the irrigated areas to meet food demand, the pressure on water resources in Jordan remains of imminent importance. Hence, an urgent call to analyze the current and potential role of treated wastewater seems justified. Under the umbrella of the project on the Sustainable Management of Available Water Resources with Innovative Technologies (SMART) funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research in Germany, an investigation has been carried out in the Jordan Valley to estimate the current wastewater reuse quantities and the potential to increase its utility for agricultural production. In general, the reuse as percentage of total treatment is applied for national and international comparisons. Yet, this index is of limited use for policy decisions as it does not reflect potentialities of wastewater use. Therefore, this study introduces a wastewater reuse index (WRI) that reflects the actual proportion of wastewater reused from the total generated wastewater. We found that the WRI in Jordan steadily increased from 30% in 2004 to 38 in 2007. Efficient use of treated wastewater requires the application of new technologies in Jordan like dwellings connected to the sewer system, decentralization of treatment plants to rural and urban settlements and prevention of high evaporation rates from stabilization ponds.     

Economic Value of Tree Fruit Production in Jordan Valley from a Virtual Water Perspective

The continuous high demand of water resources for agricultural uses in Jordan is leading to a water crisis. A possible partial solution may be to import food which requires large amounts of water to grow instead of cultivating high water consuming crops. Crops such as banana and citrus cause a huge virtual water loss, which can be reduced by cultivating other less water-demanding crops. This paper focuses on analyzing the economic value of cultivating tree fruit from a virtual water perspective. The virtual water calculations in this study depend on the average rainfall, water quota, and the crops’ water requirements (CWR). The gross profit to the water use ratio showed that banana has the lowest value 0.085 JD/m³, while lemon has the highest value 1.65 JD/m³. The calculations show that the average embedded water in fruits varies from about 470 m³/ton for grapes to about 2,500 m³/ton for dates. Banana and citrus plantations consume about 21 and 71 million cubic meters (MCM) annually, respectively, which represent about 85% of the total water consumption in fruit tree plantation. The virtual water flow estimation embedded in fruits shows that Jordan imports about 77 MCM per year. However it exports about 29 MCM per year. The results were analyzed from an integrated water resources management (IWRM) perspective. The analysis shows that a way to recover some of the water costs involved in, e.g., banana production would be to increase the fertilizer cost by about 10%. This would double the water cost and increase the banana production cost by about 6.8%. Using this alternative could be a way to better manage the huge losses in virtual water involved in banana production in the Jordan Valley.     

Application of Expert and Decision Support Systems for Optimizing Water Supply in the Jordan Valley

Abstract

Expert System (ES) and Decision Support System (DSS) are becoming essential tools that support decision makers, professionals, and managers in their efforts to operate, control, and develop decisions on a sound and integrated basis. Applications of ES and DSS are not limited to a certain sector or field, but are typically used in sectors that involve management and planning. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on the application of these systems in Jordan and specifically in managing and operating the water demand and supply of the main water carrier in the Jordan Valley, the King Abdullah Canal (KAC). This canal extends from the upper part of the valley at Adasiya down to the Dead Sea with a total length of 110 km connecting one of the most complicated irrigation and conveyance systems in the region. At present, the Jordan Valley Authority (JVA), which is responsible for all the activities in the Jordan Valley, is operating and managing the water of KAC using the JVA Water Management Information System (WMIS) and JVA Hydraulic Model. After five years of implementing this management system, there was enough information to analyze and evaluate it as well as to determine the areas of shortcomings. This paper focuses on analyzing these results and providing the necessary recommendations. These recommendations are in the form of software and hardware that will improve using both the Expert System and Knowledge Base System and make it a successful model of water optimization for the country and region.     

Optimal Agricultural Water Allocation for the Sustainable Development of Surface and Groundwater Resources

This paper presents a multiobjective linear program for the optimal allocation of water resources among various crops in a large canal command area of Pakistan. The available surface water in the canal cannot meet the net irrigation requirement (NIR) of various crops, which leads to the overexploitation of groundwater and causes salinity problems. Therefore, an optimal water allocation model was formulated using the simultaneous compromise constraint (SICCON) technique for the sustainable development of surface water and groundwater. Three (03) single objective functions (OFs) and a multiobjective function (MOF) were considered in this study. The MOF combines the single OFs by developing an arrangement among them to both maximize the satisfaction rate for surface water (SR_s) and net economic returns (NER) and minimize the salinity problems. The available surface water (AW) of 1531 Mm³ was allocated among various crops, i.e., wheat, cotton, sugarcane, rice, onion, and sunflower, using the SICCON technique, and the deficit was accounted for with groundwater reserves. The model results showed an average increase of 22% in SR_s and 7.2 million USD in NER_s from surface water allocation compared to the current water allocation practice. Moreover, the salinity levels of the allocated water exceed the threshold limits of onion, sugarcane, and rice crops in the current water allocation system and thereby negatively impact agricultural production. Hence, the model used in this study may support decision-makers in the optimal selection of different crops to be irrigated to maximize the SR_s and NER_s and minimize salinity problems.

     

供需双侧调控下水稻灌区水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调评价与优化研究

对于水资源主要消耗用户和粮食重要生产基地的大型灌区,进行供需双侧调控是缓解灌区水资源供需矛盾、提高区域高质量可持续发展的重要途径之一。为了揭示灌区水-能源-粮食复杂的协调关系,针对性地开展系统优化调控。首先基于系统评价理论构建大型灌区水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度评价模型,再基于灌区水资源系统模拟模型,以灌区水-能源-粮食耦合协调度最大为目标,以灌区主要作物水稻种植比例、水库分级分期旱限水位、水稻需水关键期限制供水比例作为优化调控变量,结合加速遗传算法,开展基于水资源供需双侧优化调控的灌区水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调评价与优化调控研究。杭埠河灌区应用结果显示:优化调控确定的灌区水稻种植比例、水库分级分期旱限水位、水稻需水关键期限供比例,相较于灌区运行现状能提高水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调水平,双季稻种植面积一定程度恢复使粮食产量明显提高,优化的水库旱限水位及水稻需水关键期水库限供比例,可在提升灌区干旱年份水资源利用效率的同时,较好地降低粮食作物因旱减产损失。可见,开展灌区供需双侧优化调控能显著提高灌区水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调性和适配性,可为提高水资源利用效率、布局主要粮食作物生产以及落实灌区水利高质量发展实施途径提供参考。     

Multicriteria Analysis For Water Productivity in the Jordan Valley

Abstract

Multiple variables associated with agricultural sector, including crop water consumption, salinity tolerance, marketing, evapotranspiration and other factors related to industrial sector, were incorporated into a multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The MCA utilized Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) which resulted in the prioritization of water use for management in the Jordan Valley. The inputs to the MCA were generated through metrological variables for the Jordan Valley for the period 1980 to 1999. Soil data and crop data were evaluated using the EVAPOT program, the KCISA program, and the ISAREG model to estimate reference evapotranspiration, crop coefficiency, crop water requirement, and calculations of water productivity for agricultural and industrial sectors. The results of the MCA make recommendations for enhancing long-term sustainability of water resources in the Jordan Valley, while allowing for water utilization and economic growth. The MCA ranked the date palm as the highest priority crop with respect to the goal of sustainable agricultural use of water. Apparel manufacturing was the most sustainable industry. Overall, the industrial sector seems to perform better with regards to water productivity than the agricultural sector. It can be concluded that the MCA tool and ISAREG model are potentially positive contributions to the process of decision- making for selection and ranking of alternatives for help in solving problems that include conflicting criteria.     

Irrigation Water Quality Requirements

ABSTRACT

Rational use of salinized water contributes to the saving of water resources, enlargement of irrigated areas and increased volumes of agricultural produce. It is ascertained that there are several distinguishable levels in irrigation water quality requirements, depending on climatic conditions, drainage conditions OF the territory, fertility, texture and properties of soil, and salt resistance of agricultural crops. In cases where irrigation water quality requirements are not adhered to soil fertility deteriorates, thereby reducing the yield and quality of agricultural produce.

Restrictions on irrigation water quality increase with transfer From the desert zone to dry steppe and steppe.

Thus, the source of irrigation water should be assessed from the viewpoint of alkalinization and salinization hazards with respect to crops of different salt resistance in the steppe, dry steppe and desert zones.     

Policy Options to Improve Water Allocation Efficiency: Analysis on Egypt and Morocco

Abstract

Because of political risk, economic feasibility, and cultural concerns, it has been a great challenge for economists to provide palatable remedies to governments to promote water allocation efficiency. Considering the limitation of water pricing to irrigation water, this research addresses questions of which strategic policy alternatives to water pricing might improve irrigation water allocation efficiency. An empirical framework is provided to compare irrigation policies for allocating scarce water to agricultural production in Egypt and Morocco. Partial-equilibrium agricultural sector models specific to Egypt and Morocco were employed for policy tests. Consumer and producer surplus from agricultural based commodities is maximized subject to various resources, technical, and policy constraints. Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) was used to calibrate the model. Water pricing policy, water complementary input factor tax policy, and output tax policy are tested using these two agricultural sector models. Results suggest that effective policy depends on the social, economic, and environmental contexts of specific regions. For countries like Egypt where most agricultural land is irrigated, taxes on Nitrogen (N) fertilizer and energy and output tax on water-intensive and low profit crop production may be more effective than others. For the Moroccan case, taxation on crop inputs and outputs not only affect water use in the public irrigation sector, but also private irrigation sector and rain-fed as a whole. Water pricing and output tax policies are better suited and effective than water complementary input factor taxation. Findings from Morocco might be generalized to other countries with similar irrigation characteristics and diversity in irrigated (public and private) and rain-fed land. The results for both countries demonstrate that some of the strategic irrigation policies can work towards directing cropping decisions to less water intensive crops and also generating revenues for governments in situations where governments choose not to price water.     

基于遗传算法优化的水库多目标供水能力分析——以岳城水库为例

面对岳城水库供水结构发生的较大改变及漳河上游水资源情势的变化,本文将遗传算法与调度图相结合,以长系列等流量月调节计算为基础,提出了岳城水库多目标供水能力计算方法。按照供水目标优先级逐时段调节计算,通过分析多目标竞争关系,得到了符合相应目标保证率要求下的最大城镇可供水量,为水库多目标供水调度提供参考。结果表明,引入生态供水目标且优先保障,生态用水与城镇用水产生强竞争关系。优先考虑生态供水目标情景下水库城镇供水能力比不考虑生态目标情景下减少了1486万m3。农业灌溉供水保证率低于生态和城镇供水保证率,其竞争关系弱于前者,可通过优化灌溉供水调度线使水库综合供水能力达到最优。当农业灌溉保证率为55%时,岳城水库的综合供水能力达到最优,总供水量13381万m3,其中生态供水1516万m3、城镇供水5802万m3、农业灌溉供水6062万m3。研究成果为水库多目标供水设计提供参考方案。     

市场经济条件下农业水资源高效利用模型研究

本文提出了市场经济条件下农业水资源高效利用模型。这个模型可根据不同的水资源利用模式和区域经济发展模式,基于区域水资源开发利用状况和水土资源组合条件,合理组织农业生产的诸要素,通过市场经济中的价值杠杆,对灌区的各种土地利用规模、种植结构和灌溉制度等进行合理配置,使得该研究区内的农业水资源利用在3个方面得到了较好的改进:(1)在实现农业水资源高效利用过程中,充分考虑了农民收入水平的提高;(2)研究了水价变化对农业生产、农民收人和对井渠双灌的促进作用;(3)探讨了水价与各种节水措施之间的关系,以及不同水价条件下各种节水措施规模、节水量和投资效益的定量描述。