Water issues and prospects for hydrological science in China简

<正>As a country with one of the world’s most rapidly developing economies,China is home to wonderful opportunities for its people and the nation as a whole.An essential element for continued economic prosperity is a water supply of guaranteed quality and quantity,providing critical insurance for food safety,health,and political stability.However,China’s economic success has come with serious water resources problems,intensified by human activities and climate change.The nation is now facing extreme levels of water pollution,soil erosion,and sedimentation,along with floods,droughts,and urban storms.Taken together,these impacts have provided a serious headwind to socioeconomic development in China.This article discusses the problems and emerging opportunities for the coming generation of water scientists and engineers.     

Estimation of discharge and its distribution in compound channels简

Results of research into a compound channel having width ratio(?)in excess of 11 are presented in the form of boundary shear distributions across the compound cross section.New relationship is derived between the percentage of shear carried by the flood plains(%)fp S and the percentage of area occupied by the flood plains(%)fp A.The equation so derived is taken as the basis to develop a new methodology to predict the stage discharge relationship specifically for wide compound channels using Darcy’s friction factor(f)for the main channel and flood plain regions.The methodology also is used for compound channels with smaller width ratios by applying the appropriate relation for%fp S derived earlier by different researchers and seems to work well.Next,as a corollary to the methodology,separate formulae are proposed to estimate flow distribution in main channel and flood plain regions.The proposed method and its corollary are tested for their validity against well-published small-scale data series of previous researchers along with some large-scale data series from EPSRC-FCF(A-Series)compound channel experiments and very good agreement is observed between the measured values and predicted values for total flow as well as zonal distribution of flow.The methodology is also applied to some compound river section data published in literature and is found to serve well the purpose of predicting flow in real world application.This new method gives the least RMS value of error for discharge prediction compared with some other well-known methods used for estimating stage-discharge relation in compound channels by considering all data sets.     

Flood risk control of dams and dykes in middle reach of Huaihe River简

Three stochastic mathematical models for calculation of the reservoir flood regulation process, river course flood release, and flood risk rate under flood control were established based on the theory of stochastic differential equations and features of flood control systems in the middle reach of the Huaihe River from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate, comprehensively considering uncertain factors of hydrology, hydraulics, and engineering control. They were used to calculate the flood risk rate with flood regulation of five key reservoirs, including the Meishan, Xianghongdian, Nianyushan, Mozitan, and Foziling reservoirs in the middle reach of the Huaihe River under different flood frequencies, the flood risk rate with river course flood release under design and check floods for the trunk of the Huaihe River in conjunction with relevant flood storage areas, and the flood risk rate with operation of the Linhuaigang Project under design and check floods. The calculated results show that （l） the five reservoirs can withstand design floods, but the Xianghongdian and Foziling reservoirs will suffer overtopping accidents under check floods; （2） considering the service of flood storage areas under the design flood conditions of the Huaihe River, the mean flood risk rate with flood regulation of dykes and dams from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate is about 0.2, and the trunk of the Huaihe River can generally withstand design floods; and （3） under a check flood with the flood return period of 1 000 years, the risk rate of overtopping accidents of the Linhuaigang Project is not larger than 0.15, indicating that it has a high flood regulation capacity. Through regulation and application of the flood control system of the Linhuigang Project, the Huaihe River Basin can withstand large floods, and the safety of the protected area can be ensured.     

Numerical simulation of hull/propeller interaction of submarine in submergence and near surface conditions简

Hull/propeller interaction is of great importance for powering performance prediction. The features of hull/propeller interaction of a submarine model with a high-skew five blade propeller in submergence and near surface conditions are numerically simulated. The effect of propeller rotation is simulated by the sliding mesh technique. Free surface is captured by the volume of fluid （VOF） method. Computed results including resistance, thrust, torque and self-propulsion factor are compared with experimental data. It shows fairly good agreement. The resistance and wave pattern of the model at different depths of submergence are computed. And the thrust, torque and self-propulsion factor of the model in submergence and near surface condition are compared to analyze the effect of free surface on self-propulsion performance. The results indicate that free surface has more influence on resistance than that on self-propulsion factors.     

Equivalent pipe algorithm for metal spiral casing and its application in hydraulic transient computation basedon equiangular spiral model简

For the metal spiral casing of water turbines, a new equivalent pipe algorithm is developed based on the idea of equiangu-lar spiral. Prototype tests and computations are carried out to investigate the hydraulic transient characteristics. The computation re-sults by using the new model are in a good agreement with the prototype test data with respect to the maximum speed of the tur-bine-generator unit, the maximum water hammer pressure in the spiral casing and the maximum vacuum in the draft tube. The propo-sed method is a significant improvement over the conventional algorithm with the accuracy increased and the error reduced by about 3%.     

An ocean circulation model based on Eulerian forward-backward difference scheme and three-dimensional,primitive equations and its application in regional simulations简

A two-time-level, three-dimensional numerical ocean circulation model is established with a two-level, single-step Eulerian time-difference scheme. The mathematical model of the large-scale oceanic motions is based on the terrain-following coo-rdinated, Boussinesq, Reynolds-averaged primitive equations of ocean dynamics. A simple but very practical Eulerian forward-back-ward method is adopted to replace the most preferred leapfrog scheme as the time-difference method for both barotropic and barocli-nic modes. The forward-backward method is of the second order of accuracy, requires only once of the function evaluation per time step, and is free of the computational mode inherent in the three-level schemes. It is superior in many respects to the original leapfrog and Asselin-filtered leapfrog schemes in the practical use. The performance of the newly-built circulation model is tested by simula-ting a barotropic （tides in marginal seas of China） and a baroclinic phenomenon （seasonal evolution of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass）, respectively. The three-year time histories of four prognostic variables obtained by the POM model and the two-time-level model are compared in a regional simulation experiment for the northwest Pacific to further show the reliability of the two-level scheme circulation model.     

GRACE 重力卫星探究我国华北地区陆地水储量变化

利用 GRACE( gravity recovery and climate experiment) 卫星 2003- 2013 年资料分析了华北地区陆地水储量变化, 并与同时间段的 CPC( climate prediction center) 、GLDAS( global land data assimilation system) 水文模型进行比较, GRACE 与 CPC 和 GLDAS 的相关系数分别为 0.679、0.817, GRACE 与 GLDAS 相关性更强。得出结论: 2003- 2013 年华北地区陆地水减少, 变化率为- 1. 8 km3 / a, 扣除地表水后, 地下水变化率为- 1. 3 km3 / a。其中, 2003- 2004 年地下水有所增加, 2005- 2013 年下降, 2010 年以后下降趋势变缓。GRACE 反演与水文模型模拟结 果显示, 2006、2009 年的等效水柱高( equivalent water heig ht , EWH) 均明显小于长期平均值, 并且 GRACE 最值对应月份异常, 对比国家统计局数据分析结果, 这两年水资源总量、地表水资源量、地下水资源量处于低谷区, 这与同年发生的自然灾害相对应。     

基于GRACE的京津冀地下水储量变化

基于2003—2019年GRACE陆地水储量变化数据和全球陆地水文模型（global land data assimilation system,GLDAS）数据反演京津冀地下水储量变化,运用时空分析方法对地下水等效水高变化进行时空演变特征分析。在空间变化上,整个京津冀地下水等效水高变化速率约为-51.77 mm/a,其中：北京市变化速率最低,约为-38.15 mm/a;天津市变化速率最高,约为-62.85 mm/a;河北省变化速率与区域平均变化水平相当,约为-52.42 mm/a。基于Sen Slope和Mann-Kendall非参数检验法分析得出西部、西南部和中部地区地下水等效水高下降[JP]趋势最明显,东北部下降趋势最小。在时间变化上,地下水等效水高变化具有一定的季节性规律：夏季变化速率最大,约为-75.99 mm/a;冬季变化速率最小,约为-37.24 mm/a;春秋两季的变化速率大致相同,分别为-52.34 mm/a和-48.21 mm/a。在影响因素分析中,人类活动是引起京津冀地区地下水等效水高变化的主要因素。研究结果可为科学掌握京津冀地下水储量时空变化规律提供数据支撑。     

GRACE卫星数据在海河流域地下水年开采量估算中的应用

结合GRACE卫星数据和全球陆面数据同化系统GLDAS数据,反演了2004—2009年连续72个月的海河流域地下水储量变化。在此基础上,结合2004—2009年海河流域水资源公报的降水量、地下水开采量数据,建立了地下水年开采量与GRACE地下水储量年变化、年降水量的二元回归模型。利用GRACE卫星数据和GLDAS数据反演的地下水储量年变化与由地下水位观测数据计算出的地下水储量年变化相关性较强,其R2为0.804;基于GRACE地下水储量年变化数据与年降水量数据,对地下水年开采量的估算结果良好,建立的回归模型的R2为0.787,表明利用GRACE卫星数据对地下水年开采量进行估算是可行的,是传统地面调查的良好补充。     

GRACE重力卫星监测煤矿开采区地下水变化研究

黄河中游是国家煤炭资源的聚集区,大规模、大范围的煤矿开采对地下水产生了较大扰动,而该区域的地下水是生产、生活重要的水源,因此,实时监测地下水变化是十分必要的。近年来,GRACE重力卫星为区域水储量变化监测提供了新的途径,本文利用GRACE重力卫星结合全球陆地数据同化系统GLDAS反演了黄河中游的重要支流-窟野河流域2009年的陆地水储量和地下水水储量变化,通过与降雨量、蒸发量、GLDAS和地表-地下水耦合模型的模拟结果进行分析比较后发现:GRACE可用于监测煤矿开采区地下水水储量变化,与基准期2004—2009年相比,2009年研究区陆地水水储量减少量为15.5 mm/月,地下水水储量减少量为29.4 mm/月。煤矿开采产生的导水裂隙带导通了土壤水与地下水交换的通道,导致土壤水的变化量与地下水水储量的变化量存在着较强的相关性,其相关系数达到0.84。     

2015年黄河流域陆地水储量变化

为研究2005—2015年黄河流域陆地水储量变化,基于GRACE RL05重力数据及全球陆面同化系统模型GLDAS进行陆地水储量反演,通过排除煤炭开采引起的区域质量变化提高反演精度,并分析降水、地下水变化对陆地水储量变化的影响。初步结果表明：在时间上,由GRACE卫星数据反演的黄河流域在2005—2015年陆地水储量变化趋势为-5.20 mm/a,2005—2006年的变化趋势达到-0.91 mm/月,各年内仅7—9月份呈现盈余状态;在[JP2]空间上,流域西部呈现为盈余状态,流域东部呈现为亏损状态;煤炭开采量转换的等效水高变化趋势为-1.95 mm/a,[JP]扣除该水高趋势得到更精确的陆地水储量变化趋势为-3.25 mm/a,其对传统陆地水储量反演结果精度的影响不可忽略;此外,降水与地下水变化分别是导致上、下游区域陆地水储量变化的重要因素。本研究综合考虑煤炭开采量影响,有助于提高传统陆地水储量反演方法精度。     

基于GRACE重力数据反演黄河流域陆地水储量变化

基于GRACE重力卫星数据反演黄河流域2002-2013年陆地水储量变化,并通过GLDAS验证GRACE反演结果。在此基础上采用皮尔逊相关系数法进一步探究陆地水储量与降水、气温、蒸散和植被NDVI的关系。结果表明:基于GRACE数据能够较好地反演陆地水储量; 2002-2013年间黄河流域的水储量以0.56 cm/a的速度减少,且具有明显的季节特征,水储量在1-6月呈亏损状态,7-12月呈盈余状态;对黄河流域水储量变化与降水、气温、蒸散和NDVI进行滞后性分析,表明其与降水、蒸散、NDVI有两个月的滞后效应,与气温为3个月。     

The Falling Lake Victoria Water Level: GRACE,TRIMM and CHAMP Satellite Analysis of the Lake Basin

In the last 5 years, Lake Victoria water level has seen a dramatic fall that has caused alarm to water resource managers. Since the lake basin contributes about 20% of the lakes water in form of discharge, with 80% coming from direct rainfall, this study undertook a satellite analysis of the entire lake basin in an attempt to establish the cause of the decline. Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) satellites were employed in the analysis. Using 45 months of data spanning a period of 4 years (2002–2006), GRACE satellite data are used to analyse the variation of the geoid (equipotential surface approximating the mean sea level) triggered by variation in the stored waters within the lake basin. TRMM Level 3 monthly data for the same period of time are used to compute mean rainfall for a spatial coverage of .25°×.25° (25×25 km) and the rainfall trend over the same period analyzed. To assess the effect of evaporation, 59 CHAMP satellite’s occultation for the period 2001 to 2006 are analyzed for tropopause warming. GRACE results indicate an annual fall in the geoid by 1.574 mm/year during the study period 2002–2006. This fall clearly demonstrates the basin losing water over these period. TRMM results on the other hand indicate the rainfall over the basin (and directly over the lake) to have been stable during this period. The CHAMP satellite results indicate the tropopause temperature to have fallen in 2002 by about 3.9 K and increased by 2.2 K in 2003 and remained above the 189.5 K value of 2002. The tropopause heights have shown a steady increase from a height of 16.72 m in 2001 and has remained above this value reaching a maximum of 17.59 km in 2005, an increase in height by 0.87 m. Though the basin discharge contributes only 20%, its decline has contributed to the fall in the lake waters. Since rainfall over the period remained stable, and temperatures did not increase drastically to cause massive evaporation, the remaining major contributor is the discharge from the expanded Owen Falls dam.     

θ-improved limited tolerance relation model of incomplete information system for evaluation of water conservancy project management modernization

The modernization of water conservancy project management is a complicated engineering system involving a management system, a management method, management personnel, the exertion of social, economic, and ecological effects, and so on. However, indices for evaluating the modernization of water conservancy project management are usually unobtainable in practical applications. Conducting appropriate extension of the classical rough set theory and then applying it to an incomplete information system are the key to the application of the rough set theory Based on analysis of some extended rough set models in incomplete information systems, a rough set model based on the θ-improved limited tolerance relation is put forward. At the same time, upper approximation and lower approximation are defined under this improved relation. According to the evaluation index system and management practices, the threshold for θ is defined. An example study indicates the practicability and maneuverability of the model.     

朱庄水库水面蒸发量损失量及变化特征分析

根据河北省衡水试验站20m2蒸发池与E601型蒸发器同步观测结果,计算出的两种仪器的折算系数,结合朱庄水库E601型蒸发器和水库观测资料,计算出水库水面蒸发量。采用朱庄水库2000年-2010年蒸发量和水库要素资料,计算出朱庄水库多年平均蒸发量为794.38万m3,单位面积蒸发量85.60万m3/km2。朱庄水库年内最大月平均蒸发量出现在5月份,为106.30万m3;最小月平均蒸发量出现在1月份,为12.96万m3。年内变化极值比为8.20,极值差为93.34万m3。