CLASSIFICATION OF NATURAL FLOW REGIMES IN THE EBRO BASIN (SPAIN) BY USING A WIDE RANGE OF HYDROLOGIC PARAMETERS

This paper presents a classification of different natural flow regimes found in Ebro basin, one of the largest in the Mediterranean region. Determination of flow regimes was based on multivariate analyses using long‐term discharge series of unaltered flow data. Mean monthly discharges of the 30 ‘best’ flow series and a total of 52 flow series containing unaltered flow data were selected to represent baseline flow conditions for tributaries throughout the basin. Metrics representing magnitude, duration and frequency components of flow were used to identify hydrologic differences across the basin. A total of six natural flow regimes were identified in the Ebro Basin, using a Ward cluster method. The flow patterns identified and their spatial distribution largely corresponded with climatic zones previously reported for the Ebro Basin, with regime types ranging from pluvio‐oceanic in the western part of the basin to Mediterranean in the eastern region. Geologic characteristics of the catchment and altitude of headwaters were also found to play an important role in defining flow regime type. A 19‐hydrologic variable subset was used to explain main hydrologic differences among groups (such as magnitude and frequency of extreme flow conditions or magnitude and variance of average flow conditions). However, stepwise discriminant analysis was not able to identify consistent subsets of hydrologic variables that adequately identified the six natural flow regime types in this basin. Canonical discriminant analysis was useful to understand class separation and for the interpretation of results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A dynamic corridor‐searching algorithm to seek time‐varying instream flow releases for optimal weir operation: comparing three indices of overall hydrologic alteration

A full range of natural flow regime has been widely recognized as a primary driving force for sustaining the integrity of a riverine ecosystem. Existing instream flow methods strive to assure a constant minimum flow but not the natural flow variability. We present in this paper a dynamic corridor‐searching algorithm to seek the optimal time‐varying scheme for instream flow releases. A compromise programming (CP) is employed to search the optimal solution of an objective function aggregating the ecosystem and human needs objectives. The ecosystem need objective is represented by an overall index of hydrologic alteration, which integrates 32 indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) derived from the range of variability approach (RVA). The human need objectives are expressed by shortage ratios for the agricultural and municipal water supplies. The proposed method is applied to a weir operation in Taiwan. Three approaches to evaluating the overall degree of hydrologic alteration (i.e., the three‐class, fuzzy‐based, and overall‐mean approaches) are compared here. The results show that the time‐varying schemes improve the human need objective, but only slightly deteriorate the ecosystem need objective. Such advantages increase with the time‐varying frequency. For the wet periods, smaller flow releases may be prescribed; for the dry periods, however, greater releases must be specified to secure a lower degree of overall hydrologic alteration. It is also revealed that use of the three‐class approach to evaluate the overall hydrologic alteration facilitates to eliminate highly altered IHA and maintain those low‐flow characteristics subtle to flow diversions. However, such outcomes are achieved at the cost of greater deficits for human water demands. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The ‘natural flow paradigm’ and Atlantic salmon—moving from concept to practice

The ‘natural flow paradigm’ is becoming an important first principle in the setting of managed flow regimes throughout the world, including Canada. The principle states that managed flow regimes should consider the natural hydrological variability of a river system, both seasonally and interannually, to maintain its ecological integrity. While laudable, this principle is in direct conflict with hydropower development and irrigation interests. Therefore, both regulatory agencies and developers are struggling to identify the elements of hydrological variability that are critical to maintain the ecological health of rivers. In this paper, we identify flow requirements for different life stages of anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). We then explore the potential effects of different flow regime scenarios on a wild Atlantic salmon population, using Harry's River in Western Newfoundland as an example. First, we link the life history patterns of Atlantic salmon to the scenario of the natural hydrological variability, incorporating the flow requirements for migration, spawning and rearing. In a second scenario, we present a flow regime managed for optimal hydropower production. Finally, we propose a conceptual model for a hypothetical managed flow regime that provides the necessary hydrological flow variations to support the life history requirements of Atlantic salmon, while permitting flow regulation and modification. This exercise identified data gaps and further research needs. Particularly, more information is needed on the amplitude of spring flooding necessary to initiate downstream migration while minimizing spill, which could potential be used for hydropower production. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determining the Ecological Flow Regime for Existing Reservoir Operation

Maintaining the natural variability of a river’s flow regime is one of the most critical strategies sustaining the ecological integrity of aquatic ecosystems. This research seeks to determine the ecological flow regime for management of streamflow existing reservoirs. The ecological flow regime is a human-modified flow regime that captures the natural flow variability for maintaining the structure and the functional integrity of the aquatic ecosystems. The design procedure uses regionalization analysis, the ratio method, and linear regression analysis techniques with hydrologic indicators to simulate the altered flow variability caused by human-based annual streamflow reduction. Because it is difficult for reservoir operators to achieve the strict standard of natural flow regime, a discontinuity ratio method is used to express the reservoir’s expected effect on the change in hydrologic indicator values. The final product of the ecological flow regime analysis produces a target reservoir operation and management that will provide a flow regime necessary to sustain the integrity of aquatic ecosystems.     

A functional flows approach to selecting ecologically relevant flow metrics for environmental flow applications

The science and practice of environmental flows have advanced significantly over the last several decades. Most environmental flow approaches require quantifying the relationships between hydrologic change and biologic response, but this can be challenging to determine and implement due to high data requirements, limited transferability, and the abundance of hydrologic metrics available for evaluation. We suggest that a functional flows approach, focusing on elements of the natural flow regime known to sustain important ecosystem processes, offers a pathway for linking understanding of ecosystem processes with discrete, quantifiable measures of the flow regime for a broad range of native taxa and assemblages. Functional flow components can be identified as distinct aspects of the annual hydrograph that support key biophysical processes, such as wet season flood flows or spring recession flows, and then quantified by flow metrics, such as 5% exceedance flow or daily percent decrease in flow, respectively. By selecting a discrete set of flow metrics that measure key functional flow components, the spatial and temporal complexity of flow regimes can be managed in a holistic manner supportive of multiple ecological processes and native aquatic species requirements. We provide an overview of the functional flows approach to selecting a defined set of flow metrics and illustrate its application in two seasonally variable stream systems. We further discuss how a functional flows approach can be utilized as a conceptual model both within and outside of existing environmental flow frameworks to guide consideration of ecological processes when designing prescribed flow regimes.     

MULTISTAGE ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGIC ALTERATIONS IN THE YELLOW RIVER,CHINA

Natural river flow regimes provide an array of ecological and social functions by sustaining the health of riverine ecosystems. To identify the hydrologic alterations in the lower Yellow River basin caused by natural factors and human activities, we developed multistage hydrologic analysis to investigate the temporal variability of the river's flow regimes. We used a cumulative departure curve and Mann–Whitney–Pettitt nonparametric tests to determine possible change points based on hydrologic data from 1950 to 2006. We then used the range of variability approach to characterize and to quantify the temporal variability of the hydrologic regimes that were associated with perturbations such as dam operation, flow diversions or intensive conversion of land use within the watershed. In the case study, three stages in hydrologic alterations of the flow regime were found: a stage without human impacts, a stage with excessive human impacts and a reservoir‐regulation stage. Our results indicated that (i) after 1997, dam operation efficiently achieved flood control using sediment regulation activities; (ii) although effective in flood control, the Xiaolangdi Reservoir could not handle situations with extremely low flow, such as during droughts; and (iii) under the arid climate of the Yellow River basin, water consumption by agriculture was the main cause of water shortages. The current study shows that multistage hydrologic analysis can greatly assist regional water resources management and the restoration of riparian eco‐environmental systems affected by dam construction under a changing environment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Quantitative Framework to Derive Robust Characterization of Hydrological Gradients

If ecological management of river ecosystems is to keep pace with increasing pressure to abstract, divert and dam, we must develop general flow–ecology relationships to predict the impacts of these hydrologic alterations. Regional flow gradient analyses are a promising tool to quickly reveal these functional relationships, but there are considerable uncertainties in this method because of variability in the historical extent of flow data across different rivers, combined with multiple indices characterizing the ecological attributes of flow regimes. In response, we outline an objective framework for analysing spatial hydrologic gradients that addresses three major sources of uncertainty: robust estimation of flow indices, the potential for temporal trends to confound spatial variation in flow regimes and the statistical robustness to detect underlying hydrological gradients. The utility of our framework was examined in relation to flow regimes across multiple braided river catchments in Canterbury, New Zealand. We found that a subset of flow indices could be robustly estimated using only 10 years of flow data, although indices that captured flow ‘timing’ required longer time series. Temporal trends were unlikely to confound conclusions from a spatial hydrologic gradient analysis, and there were three statistically supported hydrologic gradients related to flow magnitude, flow variability and low flow events. The widespread application of robust spatial flow gradient analyses has the potential to further our understanding of how altered flow regimes affect the ecology of freshwater and riparian ecosystems, thereby providing the evidence base to inform river management. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Optimal Reservoir Operation Model Based on Ecological Requirement and Its Effect on Electricity Generation

Rather than optimizing water regimes for one or a few species, a better approach is to approximate the natural flow regime that maintains the entire panoply of species. RVA method generally describes flow regimes through 32 hydrologic indicators, quantifies the changes of the indicators post-dam, and distinguishes the highly changed indicators. Based on this function, an ecological objective which takes natural flow regimes into consideration is established. The objective synthesize highly changed indicators selected from the 32 hydrologic indicators and minimize their degree of change to approximate the natural status. The function of the hydrologic indicators are quantified through fuzziology according to their effect on river environment when changed. The model is applied to Xiangyang section of the Han River downstream the Danjiangkou reservoir, which maximizes the ecological objective to close to a natural flow regime. By optimization, model results indicate that the maximum synthetical membership of the selected indicators is 0.5, which means that the post-regulation optimum release is 50?% closer to the natural flow regime. It is much better than the traditional power generation regulation model, the membership of which is only 0.2. The result indicates that the ecological model is better in improving the river ecosystem, but with reduced power generation because of excessive abandon water. However, when deeply evaluate the effect of the new model, it shows the possibility of a win-win scenario between maintaining ecosystem health and power generation.     

Establishing Environmental Water Requirements for the Murray–Darling Basin,Australia's Largest Developed River System

There is a global need for management of river flows to be informed by science to protect and restore biodiversity and ecological function while maintaining water supply for human needs. However, a lack of data at large scales presents a substantial challenge to developing a scientifically robust approach to flow management that can be applied at a basin and valley scale. In most large systems, only a small number of aquatic ecosystems have been well enough studied to reliably describe their environmental water requirements. The umbrella environmental asset (UEA) approach uses environmental water requirements developed for information‐rich areas to represent the water requirements of a broader river reach or valley. We illustrate this approach in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) in eastern Australia, which was recently subject to a substantial revision of water management arrangements. The MDB is more than 1 million km² with 18 main river valleys and many thousands of aquatic ecosystems. Detailed eco‐hydrologic assessments of environmental water requirements that focused on the overbank, bankfull and fresh components of the flow regime were undertaken at a total of 24 UEA sites across the MDB. Flow needs (e.g. flow magnitude, duration, frequency and timing) were established for each UEA to meet the needs of key ecosystem components (e.g. vegetation, birds and fish). Those flow needs were then combined with other analyses to determine sustainable diversion limits across the basin. The UEA approach to identifying environmental water requirements is a robust, science‐based and fit‐for‐purpose approach to determining water requirements for large river basins in the absence of complete ecological knowledge. © 2015 The Authors. River Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A REGIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF UNREGULATED STREAM FLOWS: SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND HIERARCHICAL FRAMEWORKS

River regulation has resulted in substantial losses in habitat connectivity, biodiversity and ecosystem services. River managers are faced with a growing need to protect the key aspects of the natural flow regime. A practical approach to providing environmental flow standards is to create a regional framework by classifying unregulated streams into groups of similar hydrologic properties, which represent natural flow regime targets. Because spatial resolution can influence the structure of regional datasets, it may be advantageous to relate datasets created at different scales in order to establish hierarchical structure and to understand how the relative importance of variables change with regard to scale. The purpose of this study was to classify unregulated streams within an eight‐state region into groups in order to provide environmental flow standards for managers and to relate that dataset to frameworks created at larger scales. Using USGS daily stream gauge information, we used 66 hydrologic statistics to classify 292 streams in groups of similar hydrologic properties. We isolated six flow classes in a sub‐region of the Southeastern US that ranged from extremely stable to highly variable to intermittent. We developed classification trees to reduce the number of hydrologic variables for future classifications. By comparing flow classes in our study to those of the entire US, we found that hierarchical structure did exist and that the divergence of flow classes will largely depend on the spatial resolution. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CLASSIFICATION OF FLOW REGIMES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ASSESSMENT IN REGULATED RIVERS: THE HUAI RIVER BASIN,CHINA

Flow regime characteristics (magnitude, frequency, duration, seasonal timing and rates of change) play a primary role in regulating the biodiversity and ecological processes in rivers. River classification provides the foundation for comparing the hydrologic regimes of rivers and development of hydro‐ecological relationships to inform environmental flow management and river restoration. This paper presents a classification of natural flow regimes and hydrologic changes due to dams and floodgates in the Huai River Basin, China, in preparation for an environmental flow assessment. The monthly natural flow regime of 45 stations in the upper and middle Huai River Basin were simulated for the period 1963–2000, based on the hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Six classes of flow patterns (low or high discharge, stable or variable, perennial or intermittent, predictable or unpredictable) were identified based on 80 hydrologic metrics, analysed by hierarchical clustering algorithms. The ecologically relevant climatic and geographic characteristics of these flow classes were tested for concordance with, and to strengthen, the hydro‐ecological classification. The regulation of natural flow patterns by dams and floodgates changed flows at some locations within each flow class and caused some gauges to shift into another class. The research reported here is expected to provide a foundation for development of hydro‐ecological relationships and environmental flow methods for wider use in China, as well as setting a new scientific direction for integrated river basin management in the Huai River Basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Redundancy and the choice of hydrologic indices for characterizing streamflow regimes

The utility of hydrologic indices for describing various aspects of streamflow regimes has resulted in their increased application in riverine research. Consequently, researchers are now confronted with the task of having to choose among a large number of competing hydrologic indices to reduce computational effort and variable redundancy prior to statistical analyses, while still adequately representing the major facets of the flow regime. The present study addresses this concern by providing a comprehensive review of 171 currently available hydrologic indices (including the commonly used Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration) using long‐term flow records from 420 sites from across the continental USA. We highlight patterns of redundancy among these hydrologic indices and provide a number of statistically and ecologically based recommendations for the selection of a reduced set of indices that can simultaneously (1) explain a dominant proportion of statistical variation in the complete set of hydrologic indices and (2) minimize multicollinearity while still adequately representing recognized, critical attributes of the flow regime. In addition, we examine the transferability of hydrologic indices across ‘stream types’ by identifying indices that consistently explain dominant patterns of variance across streams in varying climatic and geologic environments. Together, our results provide a framework from which researchers can identify hydrologic indices that adequately characterize flow regimes in a non‐redundant manner. In combination with ecological knowledge, this framework can guide researchers in the parsimonious selection of hydrologic indices for future hydroecological studies. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ecosystem Management Along Ephemeral Rivers: Trading Off Socio‐Economic Water Supply and Vegetation Conservation under Flood Regime Uncertainty

In ecosystems driven by water availability, plant community dynamics depend on complex interactions between vegetation, hydrology, and human water resources use. Along ephemeral rivers—where water availability is erratic—vegetation and people are particularly vulnerable to changes in each other's water use. Sensible management requires that water supply be maintained for people, while preserving ecosystem health. Meeting such requirements is challenging because of the unpredictable water availability. We applied information gap decision theory to an ecohydrological system model of the Kuiseb River environment in Namibia. Our aim was to identify the robustness of ecosystem and water management strategies to uncertainties in future flood regimes along ephemeral rivers. We evaluated the trade‐offs between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertainty to account for both (i) human demands for water supply and (ii) reducing the risk of species extinction caused by water mining. Increasing uncertainty of flood regime parameters reduced the performance under both objectives. Remarkably, the ecological objective (species coexistence) was more sensitive to uncertainty than the water supply objective. However, within each objective, the relative performance of different management strategies was insensitive to uncertainty. The ‘best’ management strategy was one that is tuned to the competitive species interactions in the Kuiseb environment. It regulates the biomass of the strongest competitor and, thus, at the same time decreases transpiration, thereby increasing groundwater storage and reducing pressure on less dominant species. This robust mutually acceptable strategy enables species persistence without markedly reducing the water supply for humans. This study emphasises the utility of ecohydrological models for resource management of water‐controlled ecosystems. Although trade‐offs were identified between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertain future flood regimes, management strategies were identified that help to secure an ecologically sustainable water supply. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of Human Intervention and Climate Change on Natural Flow Regime

According to the ‘natural flow paradigm’, any departure from the natural flow condition will alter the river ecosystem. River flow regimes have been modified by anthropogenic interventions and climate change is further expected to affect the biotic interactions and the distribution of stream biota by altering streamflow. This study aims to evaluate the hydrologic alteration caused by dam construction and climatic changes in a mesoscale river basin, which is prone to both droughts and monsoonal floods. To analyse the natural flow regime, 15 years of observed streamflow (1950–1965) prior to dam construction is used. Future flow regime is simulated by a calibrated hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), using ensemble of four high resolution (~25 km) Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the near future (2021–2050) based on the SRES A1B scenario. Finally, to quantify the hydrological alterations of different flow characteristics, the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) program based on the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) is used. This approach enables the assessment of ecologically sensitive streamflow parameters for the pre- and post-impact periods in the regions where availability of long-term ecological data is a limiting factor. Results indicate that flow variability has been significantly reduced due to dam construction with high flows being absorbed and pre-monsoon low flows being enhanced by the reservoir. Climate change alone may reduce high peak flows while a combination of dam and climate change may significantly reduce variability by affecting both high and low flows, thereby further disrupting the functioning of riverine ecosystems. We find that, in the Kangsabati River basin, influence of dam is greater than that of the climate change, thereby emphasizing the significance of direct human intervention.     

Invertebrate response to impacts of water diversion and flow regulation in high‐altitude tropical streams

Water supply systems are critical infrastructure that provides food and energy security for developed societies. The operation of reservoirs (flow regulation) and water intakes (water diversion) has known negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems; however, quantification of ecological impacts and examination of these two types of flow alteration remain a developing area of research. We investigated the individual and combined impact of flow regulation and water diversion on stream ecosystem integrity, the freshwater macroinvertebrate community, and the population structure of flow‐sensitive insects. For 2 years, we monitored quarterly discharge, physical and chemical stream conditions, and benthic invertebrates of four high‐altitude tropical streams that are part of the water supply system of Quito, Ecuador. Flow regulation caused a loss of the hydrological seasonality of these streams, including a decrease in stream depth and biotic quality. Water diversion caused a decrease in dissolved oxygen and overall ecosystem integrity. Freshwater invertebrate density and richness decreased as a result of water diversion and flow regulation. The combined flow alteration in these streams decreased the density of nymphal stages of the widely distributed mayfly Andesiops peruvianus. Given the societal needs for food and energy security, water management for diversion (e.g., irrigation) and in‐line storage practices (e.g., hydroelectric dams) are anticipated to increase. This research suggests that the negative environmental impacts of flow alteration could be mitigated with discharge releases designed to approximate the natural hydrologic regime of undisturbed streams.     

Response by fish assemblages to an environmental flow release in a temperate coastal Australian river: A paired catchment analysis

Defining appropriate environmental flow regimes and criteria for the use of environmental water allocations requires experimental data on the ecological impacts of flow regime change and responses to environmental water allocation. Fish assemblages in one regulated and one unregulated tributary paired in each of two sub‐catchments of the Hunter River, coastal New South Wales, Australia, were sampled monthly between August 2006 and June 2007. It was predicted that altered flow regime due to flow regulation would reduce species richness and abundance of native fish, and assemblage composition would differ between paired regulated and unregulated tributaries. Despite significant changes in richness, abundance and assemblage composition through time, differences between regulated and unregulated tributaries were not consistent. In February 2007, an environmental flow release (‘artificial flood’) of 1400 ML was experimentally released down the regulated tributary of one of the two catchments over 6 days. The flow release resulted in no significant changes in fish species abundances or assemblage composition when compared to nearby unregulated and regulated tributaries. Flow regulation in this region has reduced flow variability and eliminated natural low‐flow periods, although large floods occurred at similar frequencies between regulated–unregulated tributaries prior to and during 2006–2007, resulting in only moderate changes to regulated flow regimes. Barriers to dispersal within catchments also compound the effects of flow regulation, and findings from this study indicate that the location of migratory barriers potentially confounded detection of the effects of flow regime change. Further experimental comparisons of fish assemblages in regulated rivers will refine river‐specific response thresholds to flow regime change and facilitate the sustainable use of water in coastal rivers. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do Hydropeaking Flows Alter Juvenile Fish Growth Rates? A Test with Juvenile Humpback Chub in the Colorado River

Riverine ecosystems have been altered in many large catchments by dam development to provide water, power, flood control and navigational benefits to humans. Conservation actions in these river ecosystems are commonly focused on minimum releases of water to downstream ecosystems. Increasingly minimum release approaches are being replaced with ‘experimental’ flows that mimic natural conditions in order to benefit riverine ecosystems. While these new policies are intuitive in their design, there is limited data of how riverine ecosystems actually respond to more natural flows. A test of more natural steady‐flow water release was compared with typical fluctuating hydropower flows in the adaptive management programme at Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, during 2008–2011 to assess growth improvements of endangered juvenile humpback chub Gila cypha. Our results are counterintuitive and show that more natural steady flows reduced growth rates of juvenile humpback chub compared with fluctuating flows when both treatments occurred within the same year. Daily growth rates during steady flows of 2009 and 2010 were 0.05 and 0.07 mm day^?1 slower, respectively, than fluctuating flows those same years, despite similar water temperatures. Juvenile humpback chub also grew more slowly during steady flows that occurred in the same season. During the summer, juvenile humpback chub grew 0.12 and 0.16 mm day^?1 in fluctuating flow regimes in 2009 and 2010, respectively, and only 0.07 mm day^?1 in the experimental steady flow regime in 2011, despite higher water temperatures. Our results suggest that optimal conservation management policies for endangered species in regulated rivers may not always be achieved with more natural flows. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Macroinvertebrate community response to inter‐annual and regional river flow regime dynamics

Spatio‐temporal variability in river flow is a fundamental control on instream habitat structure and riverine ecosystem biodiversity and integrity. However, long‐term riverine ecological time‐series to test hypotheses about hydrology–ecology interactions in a broader temporal context are rare, and studies spanning multiple rivers are often limited in their temporal coverage to less than five years. To address this research gap, a unique spatio‐temporal hydroecological analysis was conducted of long‐term instream ecological responses (1990–2000) to river flow regime variability at 83 sites across England and Wales. The results demonstrate clear hydroecological associations at the national scale (all data). In addition, significant differences in ecological response are recorded between three ‘regions’ identified (RM1–3*) associated with characteristics of the flow regime. The effect of two major supra‐seasonal droughts (1990–1992 and 1996–1997) on inter‐annual (IA) variability of the LIFE scores is evident with both events showing a gradual decline before and recovery of LIFE scores after the low flow period. The instream community response to high magnitude flow regimes (1994 and 1995) is also apparent, although these associations are less striking. The results demonstrate classification of rivers into flow regime regions offers a way to help unravel complex hydroecological associations. The approach adopted herein could easily be adapted for other geographical locations, where datasets are available. Such work is imperative to understand flow regime–ecology interactions in a longer term, wider spatial context and so assess future hydroecological responses to climate change and anthropogenic modification of riverine ecosystems. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.