On a Semiparametric Data‐Driven Nonlinear Model with Penalized Spatio‐Temporal Lag Interactions

To study possibly nonlinear relationship between housing price index (HPI) and consumer price index (CPI) for individual states in the USA, accounting for the temporal lag interactions of the housing price in a given state and spatio‐temporal lag interactions between states could improve the accuracy of estimation and forecasting. There lacks, however, methodology to objectively identify and estimate such spatio‐temporal lag interactions. In this article, we propose a semiparametric data‐driven nonlinear time series regression method that accounts for lag interactions across space and over time. A penalized procedure utilizing adaptive Lasso is developed for the identification and estimation of important spatio‐temporal lag interactions. Theoretical properties for our proposed methodology are established under a general near epoch dependence structure and thus the results can be applied to a variety of linear and nonlinear time series processes. For illustration, we analyze the US housing price data and demonstrate substantial improvement in forecasting via the identification of nonlinear relationship between HPI and CPI as well as spatio‐temporal lag interactions.     

Oracle Efficient Estimation of Structural Breaks in Cointegrating Regressions

In this article, we propose an adaptive group lasso procedure to efficiently estimate structural breaks in cointegrating regressions. It is well known that the group lasso estimator is not simultaneously estimation consistent and model selection consistent in structural break settings. Hence, we use a first step group lasso estimation of a diverging number of breakpoint candidates to produce weights for a second adaptive group lasso estimation. We prove that parameter changes are estimated consistently by group lasso and show that the number of estimated breaks is greater than the true number but still sufficiently close to it. Then, we use these results and prove that the adaptive group lasso has oracle properties if weights are obtained from our first step estimation. Simulation results show that the proposed estimator delivers the expected results. An economic application to the long-run US money demand function demonstrates the practical importance of this methodology.     

Cointegrating regressions with messy regressors and an application to mixed‐frequency series

We consider a cointegrating regression in which the integrated regressors are messy in the sense that they contain data that may be mismeasured, missing, observed at mixed frequencies or have other irregularities that cause the econometrician to observe them with mildly nonstationary noise. Least squares estimation of the cointegrating vector is consistent. Existing prototypical variance‐based estimation techniques, such as canonical cointegrating regression, are both consistent and asymptotically mixed normal. This result is robust to weakly dependent but possibly nonstationary disturbances.     

Nonstationary Cointegration in the Fractionally Cointegrated VAR Model

We consider the fractional cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model of Johansen and Nielsen (2012a) and make two distinct contributions. First, in their consistency proof, Johansen and Nielsen (2012a) imposed moment conditions on the errors that depend on the parameter space, such that when the parameter space is larger, stronger moment conditions are required. We show that these moment conditions can be relaxed, and for consistency we require just eight moments regardless of the parameter space. Second, Johansen and Nielsen (2012a) assumed that the cointegrating vectors are stationary, and we extend the analysis to include the possibility that the cointegrating vectors are non‐stationary. Both contributions require new analysis and results for the asymptotic properties of the likelihood function of the fractional CVAR model, which we provide. Finally, our analysis follows recent research and applies a parameter space large enough that the usual (non‐fractional) CVAR model constitutes an interior point and hence can be tested against the fractional model using a Chi‐squared‐test.     

Gaussian Semi-parametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegration

Abstract. We analyse consistent estimation of the memory parameters of a nonstationary fractionally cointegrated vector time series. Assuming that the cointegrating relationship has substantially less memory than the observed series, we show that a multi-variate Gaussian semi-parametric estimate, based on initial consistent estimates and possibly tapered observations, is asymptotically normal. The estimates of the memory parameters can rely either on original (for stationary errors) or on differenced residuals (for nonstationary errors) assuming only a convergence rate for a preliminary slope estimate. If this rate is fast enough, semi-parametric memory estimates are not affected by the use of residuals and retain the same asymptotic distribution as if the true cointegrating relationship were known. Only local conditions on the spectral densities around zero frequency for linear processes are assumed. We concentrate on a bivariate system but discuss multi-variate generalizations and show the performance of the estimates with simulated and real data.     

Inference about long run canonical correlations

This article proposes methods for testing the null hypothesis that a number of so‐called long run canonical correlations (LRCCs) are zero. Two test statistics are proposed and their limiting distributions are derived under the null hypothesis. The finite sample properties of the tests are illustrated via a number of simulation studies that reveal the asymptotic theory provides a good guidance to behaviour in moderate or large sized samples. It is shown that the statistics provide a natural way for testing the asymptotic independence of two standardized sums. The usefulness of the tests is illustrated via the following examples: inference about cointegrating vector in a particular cointegration model; inference about break points in a cointegration model; moment estimation; parameter estimation in Generalized Method of Moments estimation.     

A general framework to study the price‐color relationship in paintings with an application to Mark Rothko rectangular series

We propose a general framework to study the relationship between the price of a painting and its color‐related attributes. To this end we focus on four key aspects: dominant colors, features of the color palette, color harmony, and color emotions. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach with an example based on Mark Rothko's post‐1950 paintings (the “rectangular” series), and auction data from the 1994 to 2018 period. We identify two distinct price‐color regimes in Rothko's market: (a) [1994‐2005], a period in which prices are explained mainly by the growing popularity of the artist regardless of the color attributes of the paintings sold; and (b) [2006‐2018], a period in which color‐related attributes explain most of the prices. Furthermore, we find that in this second period, the dominant colors and the diversity of the color palette, are by far the most relevant attributes that influence the price; color harmony and color emotions hold almost no explanatory power during this period. Finally, we propose a new metric based on the Herfindahl Index to describe color diversity; this metric seems to be promising at characterizing the effect of the color palette on the price of a painting.     

Frequency Domain Estimation of Continuous Time Cointegrated Models with Mixed Frequency and Mixed Sample Data

Recent work by the author on mixed frequency data analysis has focused on the estimation of cointegrated systems in continuous time based on a fully specified dynamic system of equations, while the estimation of cointegrating vectors in a discrete time system has been approached using a semiparametric frequency domain estimator. We extend the latter approach to cover the continuous time case, establishing the asymptotic properties of the frequency domain estimator and explore, in a simulation study, the effects of misspecifying the continuous time dynamic model in discrete time compared to treating the dynamics non‐parametrically. An empirical illustration is also provided.     

Robust discrimination between long‐range dependence and a change in mean

In this article we introduce a robust to outliers Wilcoxon change‐point testing procedure, for distinguishing between short‐range dependent time series with a change in mean at unknown time and stationary long‐range dependent time series. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis for L₁ near epoch dependent processes and show its consistency under the alternative. The Wilcoxon‐type testing procedure similarly as the CUSUM‐type testing procedure (of Berkes I., Horváth L., Kokoszka P. and Shao Q. 2006. Ann.Statist. 34:1140–1165), requires estimation of the location of a possible change‐point, and then using pre‐ and post‐break subsamples to discriminate between short and long‐range dependence. A simulation study examines the empirical size and power of the Wilcoxon‐type testing procedure in standard cases and with disturbances by outliers. It shows that in standard cases the Wilcoxon‐type testing procedure behaves equally well as the CUSUM‐type testing procedure but outperforms it in presence of outliers. We also apply both testing procedure to hydrologic data.     

TWO‐STEP ESTIMATION OF A MULTI‐VARIATE LÉVY PROCESS

Based on the concept of a Lévy copula to describe the dependence structure of a multi‐variate Lévy process, we present a new estimation procedure. We consider a parametric model for the marginal Lévy processes as well as for the Lévy copula and estimate the parameters by a two‐step procedure. We first estimate the parameters of the marginal processes and then estimate in a second step only the dependence structure parameter. For infinite Lévy measures, we truncate the small jumps and base our statistical analysis on the large jumps of the model. Prominent example will be a bivariate stable Lévy process, which allows for analytic calculations and, hence, for a comparison of different methods. We prove asymptotic normality of the parameter estimates from the two‐step procedure, and in particular, we derive the Godambe information matrix, whose inverse is the covariance matrix of the normal limit law. A simulation study investigates the loss of efficiency because of the two‐step procedure and the truncation.     

Fixed Bandwidth Inference for Fractional Cointegration

In a fractional cointegration setting we derive the fixed bandwidth limiting theory of a class of estimators of the cointegrating parameter which are constructed as ratios of weighted periodogram averages. These estimators offer improved limiting properties over those of more standard approaches like ordinary least squares or narrow band least squares estimation. These advantages have been justified by means of traditional asymptotic theory and here we explore whether these improvements still hold when considering the alternative fixed bandwidth theory and, more importantly, whether this latter approach provides a more accurate approximation to the sampling distribution of the corresponding test statistics. This appears to be relevant, especially in view of the typical oversizing displayed by Wald statistics when confronted to the standard limiting theory. A Monte Carlo study of finite‐sample behaviour is included.     

Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break

Abstract. A test for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process with a possible shift and broken linear trend is proposed. The break point is assumed to be known. Our test is not a likelihood ratio test but the deterministic terms including the broken trends are removed first by a generalized least squares procedure. Then, a likelihood ratio‐type test is applied to the adjusted series. The asymptotic null distribution of the test is derived and it is shown by a Monte Carlo experiment that the test has better small‐sample properties in many cases than a corresponding Gaussian likelihood ratio test for the cointegrating rank. Moreover, response surface techniques can be used to easily obtain p‐values of the test for any possible break date.     

A PARAMETER‐DRIVEN LOGIT REGRESSION MODEL FOR BINARY TIME SERIES

We consider a parameter‐driven regression model for binary time series, where serial dependence is introduced by an autocorrelated latent process incorporated into the logit link function. Unlike in the case of parameter‐driven Poisson log‐linear or negative binomial logit regression model studied in the literature for time series of counts, generalized linear model (GLM) estimation of the regression coefficient vector, which suppresses the latent process and maximizes the corresponding pseudo‐likelihood, cannot produce a consistent estimator. As a remedial measure, in this article, we propose a modified GLM estimation procedure and show that the resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Moreover, we develop two procedures for estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator and establish their consistency property. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite‐sample performance of the proposed procedures. An empirical example is also presented.     

A simple example of an indirect estimator with discontinuous limit theory in the MA(1) model

Indirect estimators usually emerge from two‐step optimization procedures. Each step in such a procedure may induce complexities in the asymptotic theory of the estimator. In this note, we are occupied with a simple example in which the estimator defined by the inversion of the binding function has a ‘discontinuous’ limit theory even in cases where the auxiliary one does not. This example lives in the framework of estimation of the MA (1) parameter. The ‘discontinuities’ involve the dependence of the rate of convergence on the parameter, the non‐continuity of the limit distribution w.r.t. the parameter and the estimator's non‐regularity. We are also occupied with a more complex example where the discontinuities occur because of complexities induced in any step of the defining procedure. We present some Monte Carlo evidence on the quality of the approximations from the limit distributions. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Publishing Ltd     

Kinetic parameter estimation of HDPE slurry process from molecular weight distribution: Estimability analysis and multistep methodology

This study addresses kinetic parameter estimation for a high‐density polyethylene (HDPE) slurry process based on fitting molecular weight distributions (MWDs). From the process model, we conduct an estimability analysis by assessing the relative sensitivity between output variables and kinetic parameters as well as confidence intervals. This determines which parameters can be estimated. Conversely, a major challenge remains with the solution of an ill‐conditioned parameter estimation problem with MWD as the output variable. To overcome the convergence difficulties with the associated problem, we develop a novel multistep methodology where we first obtain MWD parameters by matching to data and then estimate kinetic parameters by matching to the regressed MWD parameters. Computational results and eigenvalue analysis show this multistep methodology separates an ill‐conditioned problem into two well‐conditioned subproblems. Moreover, we consider simulation‐based and industrial HDPE case studies. These results demonstrate the applicability, potential, and efficiency of this solution procedure. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 60: 3442–3459, 2014     

SEMI‐PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF LINEAR COINTEGRATING MODELS WITH NONLINEAR CONTEMPORANEOUS ENDOGENEITY

This article considers linear cointegrating models with unknown nonlinear short‐run contemporaneous endogeneity. Two estimators are proposed to estimate the linear cointegrating parameter after the nonlinear endogenous component is estimated by local linear regression approach. Both the proposed estimators are shown to have the same mixed normal limiting distribution with zero mean and smaller asymptotic variance than the fully modified ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimators. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the finite sample performance of our proposed estimators, and an empirical application is also included.     

Studies of distributed parameter systems: Decoupling the state-parameter estimation problem

The problem of state-parameter estimation is considered in terms of decoupling the estimation procedure. First, the theoretical preliminaries necessary for the mathematical statement of the problem are defined. Then using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) approach, the state and parameter are estimated by applying the solution techniques to a distributed parameter system. Next, the state estimation problem is decoupled from the parameter estimation problem and by using a numerical example, the advantage of this decoupling procedure is demonstrated. The numerical results show that convergence can be improved when this decoupling procedure is employed. The effect of the location of the measurements on the estimation problem is also analysed in this work. The results show that the convergence of the problem depends on the location as well as the number of measurements.     

Broadband semi‐parametric estimation of long‐memory time series by fractional exponential models

This article proposes broadband semi‐parametric estimation of a long‐memory parameter by fractional exponential (FEXP) models. We construct the truncated Whittle likelihood based on FEXP models in a semi‐parametric setting to estimate the parameter and show that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the FEXP estimator by Moulines and Soulier (1999) in linear processes. A Monte Carlo simulation suggests that the proposed estimation is more preferable than the existing broadband semi‐parametric estimation.     

ADL tests for threshold cointegration

In this article, we propose new tests for threshold cointegration using an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. The indicators in the threshold model can adopt either a nonstationary or stationary threshold variable. The cointegrating vector is not prespecified in this article. We adopt a supremum Wald type test to account for the so‐called Davies (1987, Biometrika 74 ,33) problem. The asymptotic null distributions of the proposed tests are free of nuisance parameters. As such, a bootstrap procedure is not required and the critical values of the proposed tests are tabulated. Monte Carlo experiments show good finite‐sample performance.     

Optimal experiment design for nonlinear dynamic (bio)chemical systems using sequential semidefinite programming

Optimal experiment design (OED) for parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic (bio)chemical processes is studied in this work. To reduce the uncertainty in an experiment, a suitable measure of the Fisher information matrix or variance–covariance matrix has to be optimized. In this work, novel optimization algorithms based on sequential semidefinite programming (SDP) are proposed. The sequential SDP approach has specific advantages over sequential quadratic programming in the context of OED. First of all, it guarantees on a matrix level a decrease of the uncertainty in the parameter estimation procedure by introducing a linear matrix inequality. Second, it allows an easy formulation of E‐optimal designs in a direct optimal control optimization scheme. Finally, a third advantage of SDP is that problems involving the inverse of a matrix can be easily reformulated. The proposed techniques are illustrated in the design of experiments for a fed‐batch bioreactor and a microbial kinetics case study. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 60: 1728–1739, 2014