Prediction of the Melt Index Based on the Relevance Vector Machine with Modified Particle Swarm Optimization

A novel chemical soft‐sensor approach for the prediction of the melt index (MI) in the propylene polymerization industry is presented. The MI is considered as one of the important variables of quality that determine the product specifications. Thus, a reliable estimation of the MI is crucial in quality control. An accurate optimal predictive model of MI values with the relevance vector machine (RVM) is proposed, where the RVM is employed to build the MI prediction model; a modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO) algorithm is then introduced to optimize the parameter of the RVM, and the MPSO‐RVM model is thereby developed. An online correcting strategy (OCS) is further carried out to update the modeling data and to revise the model's parameter self‐adaptively whenever model mismatch happens. Based on the data from a real polypropylene production plant, a detailed comparison is carried out among the least squares support vector machine (LS‐SVM), RVM, MPSO‐RVM, and OCS‐MPSO‐RVM models. The research results reveal the prediction accuracy and validity of the proposed approach.     

A novel Bayesian inference soft sensor for real‐time statistic learning modeling for industrial polypropylene melt index prediction

A novel real‐time soft sensor based on a sparse Bayesian probabilistic inference framework is proposed for the prediction of melt index in industrial polypropylene process. The Bayesian framework consists of a relevance vector machine for predicting melt index and a particle filtering algorithm for soft sensor optimization. An online correcting strategy is also developed for improving the performance of real‐time melt index prediction. The method takes advantages of the probabilistic inference and using prior statistical knowledge of polymerization process. Developed soft sensors are validated with ten public databases from UCI machine learning repository and real data from industrial polypropylene process. Experimental results indicate the effectiveness of proposed method and show the improvement in both prediction precision and generalization capability compared with the reported models in literatures. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 2017 , 134, 45384.     

Time Series Extended Finite‐State Machine‐Based Relevance Vector Machine Multi‐Fault Prediction

Fault prediction means to detect faults that can occur in the future. While most studies focus on predicting one fault at a time, multi‐fault prediction is more practical for industrial processes as multiple faults can cause much more damage than a single one. A time series extended finite‐state machine (TS‐EFSM)‐based relevance vector machine (RVM) approach is proposed for multi‐fault prediction. Time lags and correlation coefficients between the process variables and process states are determined. Then, a variable and a state dependence diagram based on the correlation coefficients is established with the EFSM. Furthermore, the RVM is applied to identify parameters for the sake of better prediction accuracy and shorter testing times. With the prediction parameters, faults can be predicted using the aforementioned TS‐EFSM state transitions.     

基于IDPC-RVM的多模态间歇过程质量变量在线预测

间歇过程具有多模态特性,现有的间歇过程模态划分方法中过程数据高维特征和模态中心的选取直接影响模态划分结果的合理性,进而影响间歇过程质量变量在线预测的精度。为提高间歇过程质量变量在线预测的精度,提出了一种基于改进密度峰值聚类相关向量机(improved density peaks clustering-relevance vector machine,IDPC-RVM)的间歇过程质量变量在线预测方法。首先,在密度峰值聚类算法基础上,考虑过程数据的高维特征进行样本相似性度量,并通过样本密度不平衡下的模态中心选取策略准确获取间歇过程模态中心;其次,利用模态划分指标在无须先验知识的情况下获取间歇过程最优模态数目,并识别过渡模态完成间歇过程的模态划分;最后,建立各模态数据的RVM预测模型,实现间歇过程质量变量的在线预测。青霉素发酵过程的实验结果表明,与RVM、SCFCM-RVM和DPC-RVM方法相比,对青霉素浓度预测的均方根误差(RMSE)降低至0.0093,判定系数(R²)提升至0.9995,有效地提高了预测精度。     

基于IDPC-RVM的多模态间歇过程质量变量在线预测

间歇过程具有多模态特性,现有的间歇过程模态划分方法中过程数据高维特征和模态中心的选取直接影响模态划分结果的合理性,进而影响间歇过程质量变量在线预测的精度。为提高间歇过程质量变量在线预测的精度,提出了一种基于改进密度峰值聚类相关向量机(improved density peaks clustering-relevance vector machine,IDPC-RVM)的间歇过程质量变量在线预测方法。首先,在密度峰值聚类算法基础上,考虑过程数据的高维特征进行样本相似性度量,并通过样本密度不平衡下的模态中心选取策略准确获取间歇过程模态中心;其次,利用模态划分指标在无须先验知识的情况下获取间歇过程最优模态数目,并识别过渡模态完成间歇过程的模态划分;最后,建立各模态数据的RVM预测模型,实现间歇过程质量变量的在线预测。青霉素发酵过程的实验结果表明,与RVM、SCFCM-RVM和DPC-RVM方法相比,对青霉素浓度预测的均方根误差(RMSE)降低至0.0093,判定系数(R²)提升至0.9995,有效地提高了预测精度。     

Applicability domain of soft sensor models based on one‐class support vector machine

Soft sensors are widely used to estimate process variables that are difficult to measure online. By using soft sensors, analyzer faults can be detected by estimation errors. However, it is difficult to detect abnormal data and determine the reasons because estimation errors increase not only due to analyzer faults but also due to variations caused by changes in the state of chemical plants. To separate those factors, we previously proposed to construct the relationships between distances to soft sensor models (DMs) and the accuracy of prediction of the models quantitatively and estimate the prediction accuracy of new data online. In this article, we used a one‐class support vector machine (OCSVM) to estimate data density and the output of an OCSVM as a DM. The proposed method was applied to real industrial data and the superiority of the proposed DM to the traditional ones was demonstrated by comparing their results. © 2013 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 59: 2046–2050, 2013     

Prediction of the Profit Function for Industrial 2‐Keto‐L‐Gulonic Acid Cultivation

The profit function is the generic criterion to describe the cost effect of a batch process. To focus on the prediction of the profit function for 2‐keto‐L‐gulonic acid (2‐KGA) cultivation, which is potentially applicable for process monitoring and optimal scheduling, rolling learning‐prediction (RLP) based on a support vector machine (SVM) is applied. The RLP implies that the SVM training database is rolling updated as the batch of current interest proceeds, and the SVM learning is then repeated for the prediction. The database is further updated after termination of a batch. The updating procedures are investigated in detail. Pseudo‐online prediction is carried out using the data from industrial‐scale 2‐KGA cultivation under actual and hypothetical inoculation sequences. The results indicate that the average relative prediction error is less than 5 % in the later phase of fermentation in all inoculation sequences.     

Application of online support vector regression for soft sensors

Soft sensors have been widely used in chemical plants to estimate process variables that are difficult to measure online. One of the crucial difficulties of soft sensors is that predictive accuracy drops due to changes in state of chemical plants. Characteristics of adaptive soft sensor models such as moving window models, just‐in‐time models and time difference models were previously discussed. The predictive accuracy of any traditional models decreases when sudden changes in processes occur. Therefore, a new soft sensor method based on online support vector regression (SVR) and the time variable was developed for constructing soft sensor models adaptive to rapid changes of relationships among process variables. A nonlinear SVR model with the time variable is updated with the most recent data. The proposed method was applied to simulation data and real industrial data, and achieved higher predictive accuracy than traditional ones even when time‐varying changes in process characteristics happen. © 2013 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J 60: 600–612, 2014     

Dynamic gray‐box modeling for on‐line monitoring of polymer extrusion viscosity

Melt viscosity is a key indicator of product quality in polymer extrusion processes. However, real time monitoring and control of viscosity is difficult to achieve. In this article, a novel “soft sensor” approach based on dynamic gray‐box modeling is proposed. The soft sensor involves a nonlinear finite impulse response model with adaptable linear parameters for real‐time prediction of the melt viscosity based on the process inputs; the model output is then used as an input of a model with a simple‐fixed structure to predict the barrel pressure which can be measured online. Finally, the predicted pressure is compared to the measured value and the corresponding error is used as a feedback signal to correct the viscosity estimate. This novel feedback structure enables the online adaptability of the viscosity model in response to modeling errors and disturbances, hence producing a reliable viscosity estimate. The experimental results on different material/die/extruder confirm the effectiveness of the proposed “soft sensor” method based on dynamic gray‐box modeling for real‐time monitoring and control of polymer extrusion processes. POLYM. ENG. SCI., 2012. © 2012 Society of Plastics Engineers     

Development of a vision‐based online soft sensor for oil sands flotation using support vector regression and its application in the dynamic monitoring of bitumen extraction

Extraction from oil sands is a crucial step in the industrial recovery of bitumen. It is challenging to obtain online measurements of process outputs such as bitumen grade and recovery. Online measurements are a prerequisite for innovating better process control solutions for process efficiency and cost reduction. We have developed a soft sensor to provide online measurements of bitumen grade and recovery in a flotation‐based oil sand extraction process. Continuous froth images were captured using a VisioFroth camera system on a batch flotation unit. A support vector regression (SVR) model with a Gaussian kernel was constructed to develop a soft sensor for bitumen grade and recovery using froth image features as the inputs. The model was trained and validated for batch flotation of different grades of oil sands ore at industry‐relevant process conditions. A Dean‐Stark analyzer was used to obtain offline grade and recovery measurements that were used to calibrate the soft sensor. Mean squared errors (MSE) of 62 and 74 were achieved for grade (%) and recovery (%), respectively, and this was obtained using 5‐fold cross validation. The developed soft sensor model has been applied successfully in the real‐time dynamic monitoring of flotation grade and recovery for different grades of ore and operating conditions.

     

Ensemble Correntropy‐Based Mooney Viscosity Prediction Model for an Industrial Rubber Mixing Process

The development of accurate soft sensors for online prediction of Mooney viscosities in industrial rubber mixing processes is a difficult task because the modeling dataset often contains various outliers. A correntropy kernel learning (CKL) method for robust soft sensor modeling of nonlinear industrial processes with outlier samples is proposed. Simultaneously, the candidate outliers can be identified once the CKL‐based soft sensor model is built. An index for describing the uncertainty of the CKL model is designed. Furthermore, to obtain more robust and accurate predictions, an ensemble CKL (ECKL) method is formulated by introducing the simple bagging strategy. Consequently, by detecting the outliers in a sequential manner, the database becomes more reliable for long‐term use. The application results for the industrial rubber mixing process demonstrate the superiority of ECKL in terms of better prediction performance.     

Industrial melt index prediction with the ensemble anti‐outlier just‐in‐time Gaussian process regression modeling method

Several data‐driven soft sensors have been applied for online quality prediction in polymerization processes. However, industrial data samples often follow a non‐Gaussian distribution and contain some outliers. Additionally, a single model is insufficient to capture all of the characteristics in multiple grades. In this study, the support vector clustering (SVC)‐based outlier detection method was first used to better handle the nonlinearity and non‐Gaussianity in data samples. Then, SVC was integrated into the just‐in‐time Gaussian process regression (JGPR) modeling method to enhance the prediction reliability. A similar data set with fewer outliers was constructed to build a more reliable local SVC–JGPR prediction model. Moreover, an ensemble strategy was proposed to combine several local SVC–JGPR models with the prediction uncertainty. Finally, the historical data set was updated repetitively in a reasonable way. The prediction results in the industrial polymerization process show the superiority of the proposed method in terms of prediction accuracy and reliability. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 2015 , 132, 41958.     

Fast property prediction in an industrial rubber mixing process with local ELM model

Online property prediction in industrial rubber mixing processes is not an easy task. An efficient data‐driven prediction model is developed in this work. The regularized extreme learning machine (RELM) is utilized as the fundamental soft sensor model. To better capture distinguished characteristics in multiple recipes and operating modes, a just‐in‐time RELM modeling method is developed. The number of hidden neurons and the value of regularization parameter of the just‐in‐time RELM model can be efficiently selected using a fast leave‐one‐out strategy. Consequently, without the time‐consuming laboratory analysis process, the Mooney viscosity can be online predicted once a mixing batch has been discharged. The industrial Mooney viscosity prediction results show its better prediction performance in comparison with traditional approaches. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 2017 , 134, 45391.     

基于深度集成支持向量机的工业过程软测量方法

基于支持向量机（SVM）的软测量建模方法已经在工业过程控制领域得到广泛应用,然而传统支持向量机直接针对原始测量变量建立模型,未能充分挖掘数据的内在特征信息以提高预测精度。针对该问题,本文提出一种基于深度集成支持向量机（DESVM）的软测量建模方法。该方法首先利用深度置信网络（DBN）来对数据进行深层次的信息挖掘,提取出数据的内在特征,然后引入基于Bagging算法的集成学习策略,构建基于深度数据特征的集成支持向量机模型,以提升软测量预测模型的泛化能力。最后通过数值系统和真实工业数据对方法进行应用分析,结果表明本文提出的方法能够有效提升支持向量机软测量模型的预测精度,能够更好地预测过程质量指标的变化。     

Ensemble locally weighted partial least squares as a just‐in‐time modeling method

The predictive ability of soft sensors, which estimate values of an objective variable y online, decreases due to process changes in chemical plants. To reduce the decrease of predictive ability, adaptive soft sensors have been developed. We focused on just‐in‐time soft sensors, especially locally weighted partial least squares (LWPLS) regression. Since a set of hyperparameters in an LWPLS model has to be set beforehand and there is only onedataset, a traditional LWPLS model is difficult to accurately predict y‐values in multiple process states. In this study, we propose to combine LWPLS and ensemble learning, and predict y‐values with multiple LWPLS models, whose datasets and sets of hyperparameters are different. The weights of LWPLS models are determined based on Bayes’ theorem, considering their predictive ability. We confirmed that the proposed model has higher predictive accuracy than traditional models through numerical simulation data and two industrial data analyses. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 62: 717–725, 2016     

一种基于时序误差补偿的动态软测量建模方法

针对目前静态软测量建模方法无法反映工业过程动态信息,造成预测模型精度低、鲁棒性差等问题,提出了一种基于最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)和自回归-滑动平均模型(ARMA)的软测量建模方法。首先,建立了基于LS-SVM的软测量模型,利用ARMA模型对预测误差的动态估计,通过增加动态校正环节,实现了对静态模型的动态校正以改善系统动态响应特性。最后将上述方法用于乙烯精馏过程中乙烷浓度的软测量建模,仿真结果表明:与单一使用LSSVM模型相比,该方法具有跟踪性能好、泛化能力强等优点,是一种有效的软测量建模方法。     

Intelligent fitting of minimum spout‐fluidised velocity in spout‐fluidised bed

The experiments were carried on to study the minimum spout‐fluidised velocity in the spout‐fluidised bed. It was found that the minimum spout‐fluidised velocity increased with the rise of static bed height, spout nozzle diameter, particle density, particle diameter, fluidised gas velocity but decreased with the rise of carrier gas density. Based on the experiments, least square support vector machine (LS‐SVM) was established to predict the minimum spout‐fluidised velocity, and adaptive genetic algorithm and cross‐validation algorithm were used to determine the parameters in LS‐SVM. The prediction performance of LS‐SVM is better than that of the empirical correlations and neural network.     

自适应软测量方法在动液面预测中的研究与应用

针对传统人工检测方法在测量动液面时存在精度低、实时性差等问题,采用软测量技术来完成对动液面的测量工作.根据对现场数据特性的分析,提出采用经验模态分解和基于黑洞的最小二乘支持向量机预测相结合的算法来实现动液面软测量建模;通过构建模型性能评价模块,动态更新模型,解决在油田生产过程中,静态模型不能完全反映生产工况导致模型失效的问题,提高算法的自适应能力及预测量精度.最后通过对油田生产现场监测数据进行实验验证,结果表明,该方法对油田动液面测量精度高,对生产波动的自适应能力强,满足油田现场测试使用要求,提高油田生产自动化程度.     

Application of support vector regression for developing soft sensors for nonlinear processes

The field of soft sensor development has gained significant importance in the recent past with the development of efficient and easily employable computational tools for this purpose. The basic idea is to convert the information contained in the input–output data collected from the process into a mathematical model. Such a mathematical model can be used as a cost efficient substitute for hardware sensors. The Support Vector Regression (SVR) tool is one such computational tool that has recently received much attention in the system identification literature, especially because of its successes in building nonlinear blackbox models. The main feature of the algorithm is the use of a nonlinear kernel transformation to map the input variables into a feature space so that their relationship with the output variable becomes linear in the transformed space. This method has excellent generalisation capabilities to high‐dimensional nonlinear problems due to the use of functions such as the radial basis functions which have good approximation capabilities as kernels. Another attractive feature of the method is its convex optimization formulation which eradicates the problem of local minima while identifying the nonlinear models. In this work, we demonstrate the application of SVR as an efficient and easy‐to‐use tool for developing soft sensors for nonlinear processes. In an industrial case study, we illustrate the development of a steady‐state Melt Index soft sensor for an industrial scale ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) polymer extrusion process using SVR. The SVR‐based soft sensor, valid over a wide range of melt indices, outperformed the existing nonlinear least‐square‐based soft sensor in terms of lower prediction errors. In the remaining two other case studies, we demonstrate the application of SVR for developing soft sensors in the form of dynamic models for two nonlinear processes: a simulated pH neutralisation process and a laboratory scale twin screw polymer extrusion process. A heuristic procedure is proposed for developing a dynamic nonlinear‐ARX model‐based soft sensor using SVR, in which the optimal delay and orders are automatically arrived at using the input–output data.     

Probabilistic slow feature analysis‐based representation learning from massive process data for soft sensor modeling

Latent variable (LV) models provide explicit representations of underlying driving forces of process variations and retain the dominant information of process data. In this study, slow features (SFs) as temporally correlated LVs are derived using probabilistic SF analysis. SFs evolving in a state‐space form effectively represent nominal variations of processes, some of which are potentially correlated to quality variables and hence help improving the prediction performance of soft sensors. An efficient expectation maximum algorithm is proposed to estimate parameters of the probabilistic model, which turns out to be suitable for analyzing massive process data. Two criteria are also proposed to select quality‐relevant SFs. The validity and advantages of the proposed method are demonstrated via two case studies. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 61: 4126–4139, 2015