平衡计分卡在重大科技项目评价中的应用①

重大科技项目的评价关系着国家科技计划的实施,然而由于重大科技项目的复杂性,欲对其进行绩效评估往往面临许多问题。采用平衡计分卡构建并完善了重大科技项目评价指标体系,并对指标之间的关系做了简要的说明。然后采用主成分分析法对评价指标进行因子分析,并得到主因子;随后通过GA—BP神经网络构建了评价模型。最后以天津市省级科技项目为背景进行了实例研究,验证了模型的科学陛和实用性。     

模糊综合评价法在科技项目验收评价中的应用

为了科学的进行科技项目验收评价,以广东省工业攻关项目为评价对象,对科技项目验收流程进行改进,建立科技项目验收财务和技术评价指标体系,采用模糊综合评价的方法,构建科技项目验收评价模型,对评价模型进行科技项目材料验收实例验证,实例验证表明,该模型应用具有较高的吻合度,相对于传统的专家会议法更为科学、合理,为科技项目验收评估信息系统的实现提供理论方法.     

基于用户体验的多关节主被动训练仪可用性研究

为提高多关节主被动训练仪的可用性水平,以用户体验理论为基础构建了以用户为触点的多关 节主被动训练仪可用性评价指标体系,运用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)和隶属度定量化处理的方法构建多关节主被 动训练仪可用性评价模型。以某公司生产的一款多关节主被动训练仪为例,先由专家测评确定评价指标并计算 出各指标因素的权重值,再由评分小组操作该产品后得出对每项可用性评价指标的评价等级,结合多关节主被 动训练仪可用性评价模型计算得出最终的评价结果。结果表明,运用该模型能对产品的可用性进行全面准确的 评价,进而发现产品存在的可用性问题,提出改进意见,为产品的升级创新提供参考。     

基于GA—BP 神经网络的建筑安全评价

建筑企业的安全问题不仅关系到建筑行业的发展,而且关系到社会的和谐与进步。从管理者的视角构建了建筑企业安全管理评价指标体系,并对指标之间的关系做了简要的说明。然后应用主成份分析对神经网络的输入数据进行预处理,提取其中的关键成分作为网络的输入,并采用遗传算法来提高神经网络的收敛速度。晟后以天津市建筑企业为实例加以说明并进行了分析。结果表明,建立的模型不仅较公平、合理,而且提高了神经网络模型的学习效率。     

组织运行状态评价的制约关系模型构建研究

在对组织机构运行状态进行状态评价时,所建立的指标不是孤立的,而是相互联系和相互影响的.针对评价指标间的制约关系,构建了制约关系模型;举例分析了指标间是如何制约的,并就其解决算法和计算机实现进行了分析与研究,科学地解决了指标间的制约关系,使得评价指标能更客观地反映组织机构的运行状态.该模型也适用于其它类似评价.     

基于多层次模糊综合评价法的项目后评价研究与实践

为评判项目决策是否合理,成效是否达到预期,经济效益的投资回报水平及其可持续发展能力,开展项目后评价是必由之路.论文由此针对某油田健康安全环保监察项目进行后评价研究,结合该项目的特点采用多层次模糊综合评价法构建了三层评价指标体系对本项目进行综合后评价,为保证评价客观性采用调查表方式邀请专家对各项评价指标进行打分,并通过德...     

主成分分析与BP网络结合的教学质量评价

为了进一步提高教学质量评价精度,提出了一种基于主成分分析和BP神经网络相结合的教学质量评价模型。首先利用主成分分析对教学质量评价体系中的12个评价指标的原始特征变量进行分析,然后作数据降维处理,提取出前4个主成分,再以这些主成分作为BP神经网络的输入,构建了3层神经网络评价模型。仿真结果表明:与标准BP神经网络相比,PCA-BP网络模型的结构更为简化,收敛速度更快,评价精度更高且泛化能力强。     

基于核主成分分析的环境质量综合评价模型

环境质量评价是一个多指标决策过程,考虑到评价指标众多关系复杂,该文运用降维效果显著、能有效解决非线性问题的核主成分分析(KPCA)方法对主成分分析(PCA)综合评价进行改进,建立环境质量综合评价模型。实证研究结果表明该模型能够较客观地反映不同地区的环境状况。     

基于网络层次分析法的煤矿应急救援能力评价

针对煤矿应急救援能力评价指标之间相互依存和反馈的关系,构建了基于网络层次分析法和模糊综合评价法的煤矿应急救援能力评价模型;对该模型进行实证研究,借助超级决策软件和专家打分制实现了各评价指标的赋权和评分,并据此对不同煤矿的应急救援能力进行评价。实证结果表明,该模型具有较好的可行性和有效性,对煤矿应急救援能力评价研究起到了一定的借鉴作用。     

企业综合评价软件系统中的层次分析模型

论文在对广州市财政局和统计局提供的广州市企业经济系统的33项经济指标数据进行分析和异常数据处理的基础上,基于三套指标体系,建立了考虑专家经验和政策软投入的层次分析综合模型,利用该模型对广州市企业的经济实力进行评价,它对评价企业管理水平与科技实力,预测企业主要指标,增强企业驾驭未来的能力等起到主导作用,为“广州市企业综合评价软件系统”项目的制定提供了科学的定量依据和方法,对提高决策中的信息量和科技含量,具有重大的理论意义和实用价值。     

A new method of soft computing to estimate the contribution rate of S&T progress on economic growth

In this paper, soft computing is applied to estimate the contribution rate of science and technology (S&T) progress on economic growth. First, the main influence factors of economic growth are defined, consisting of capital assets, labor force, human capital and research and development (R&D), and the human capital is calculated by improved labor-payment method. Second, target system is categorized by genetic iterative self-organizing data analysis technique algorithm (GA-ISODATA). Then, we set up the I/O model by fuzzy artificial neural network (FANN), with the capital assets, labor force, human capital and R&D as input variables, and the corresponding gross domestic product (GDP) as the output, to extract several fuzzy rules. Last, from the obtained fuzzy rules, we can get the effect of influence factors on economic growth, and calculate the economic contribution rate of S&T progress (ECRST). Take Guangdong province of China as an example, the result indicates that: during the year 2000–2008, Guangdong province (contains 21 cities) could be classified into three clusters according to the S&T progress. The first cluster (High S&T) has an ECRST of 47.52%, and contains 4 cities; the second cluster (Medium S&T) has an ECRST of 42.74%, and contains 4 cities; the third cluster (Low S&T) has an ECRST of 39.96%, and contains 13 cities; the average ECRST of Guangdong province is 44.02%. The result is accordance with the economic reality of Guangdong province, and demonstrates the validity of the proposed method.     

基于粗糙集理论的高科技项目的评价分析

对高科技项目进行评价和筛选是管理部门和投资公司的重要工作。论文建立了高科技项目的多指标评价体系．引入粗糙集理论，对评价的结果进行分析和总结，试图找到关键的评价指标，为评价部门提供指导。实例证明，该方法和结论具有较强的说服力。     

遥感卫星灾害应急监测效能评估指标体系构建

遥感卫星广泛应用于包括防灾减灾在内的多个领域,发挥了巨大的社会效益。自然灾害应急对卫星监测的需求具有针对多时空要素的动态高效多源多维的特点,而卫星的全球化可重访、无国界观测能力与灾害的监测需求高度契合。在研究分析遥感卫星在灾害应急任务中的能力需求和应用模式的基础上,从单项性能、能力指标和应用效能三个层次展开分析,构建遥感卫星灾害应急监测效能评估指标体系,给出主要指标的评估方法,为我国卫星有效用于国内外重大灾害应急监测服务提供有效的评估手段和技术支撑。     

Robust portfolio selection for index tracking

We develop a robust portfolio selection model for tracking a market index using a subset of its assets. The model is a 0-1 integer program that seeks to maximize similarity between selected assets and the assets of the target index. We allow uncertainty in the objective function by using a computationally tractable robust framework that can control the conservativeness of the solution. This protects against worst-case realizations of potential estimation errors and other deviations. Out-of-sample experiments using the S&P 100 demonstrate the advantages of the robust model. Compared to portfolios constructed with the nominal model, moderately conservative robust portfolios are shown to have lower tracking error and risk profiles that are more similar to the target index.     

基于多层次属性加权的代码混淆有效性量化评估

为了克服软件保护过程中代码混淆方法选择的偶然性和盲目性,针对代码混淆量化比较和评估困难的问题,提出一种基于多层次属性加权的代码混淆定量评估方法:从攻击者角度出发,采用静态和动态逆向分析手段对混淆前后程序进行分析,量化基于程序属性的评估指标。构建三级层次分析模型,运用专家评分法来比较程序属性之间的重要性,以确定属性权值。在程序属性指标量化值和权值的基础上,运用层次分析法对不同混淆方法进行评估。实验和分析表明,评估方法能够定量地对不同混淆算法的有效性进行比较。     

Robust Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic volatility models using scale mixtures of normal distributions

A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of-sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model.     

Computing of the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to economic growth in Chinese regions

According to the new economic growth theory, a new method of computing the contribution rate of scientific and technological (S&T) progress to economic growth based on the Cobb–Douglas production function and the Solow residual value method is proposed in this paper. This method includes three steps: Firstly, according to their levels of S&T progress, fuzzy soft clustering of thirty one Chinese regions is performed to obtain the membership degree of these places to the categories. Secondly, to calculate the contribution rates that different categories of levels of S&T progress contribute to economic growth. Thirdly, to multiply the obtained contribution rate of each category by the membership degree of the place belonging to this category, from which the contribution rate of S&T progress to economic growth in each place is obtained. Finally, this method is used to calculate the contribution rates of S&T progress to economic growth in thirty one Chinese regions during the period from 1998 to 2007. Last but not least, some reasonable suggestions and conclusions are proposed by analyzing the computing results.     

软件项目方案选择灰色综合评价

方案选择与评价是可行性研究阶段和招标投标阶段的重要环节,决定着软件项目的成败。针对软件项目方案难以评价的特点,文中运用灰色综合评价方法进行研究。首先,建立评价指标体系,包括评价指标体系模型、评价指标描述以及其他相关工作;接着,建立数学模型,包括确定评价指标、定性指标定量化、确定最优指标集、确定原始评价矩阵、规范化处理、确定评价矩阵、灰色综合评价等步骤;最后,给出了具体评价实例。结果表明,运用灰色系统理论对软件项目方案进行评价;可以扩大信息源,提高评价结果的可信度。