面向偏好冲突的直觉模糊多属性群体决策方法

针对偏好具有冲突性且权重信息完全未知的直觉模糊多属性群体决策问题, 提出一种基于多目标决策的求解方法. 首先, 建立以决策方案差异程度和决策成员偏好冲突程度为目标函数的多目标决策模型; 然后, 利用极小极大方法求解该模型, 得到各方案的属性权重和决策成员权重, 据此确立最优方案; 最后, 通过数值算例表明了该方法的有效性.

     

决策信息不完全确知的模糊决策集成模型

从模糊模式识别概念出发，建立决策方案集对全体级别加权广义欧氏权距离平方和最小的非线性规划模型，导出决策信息不完全确知的多目标模糊决策集成模型，该模型将模糊优选，模糊模式识别，模糊交叉迭代，模糊聚类等多种决策方法有机地结合到一起，用于处理决策人偏好，方案评价，分级标准等决策信息不完全确知情况的决策问题，为解决复杂系统的不完全信息多目标决策提供了一条新途径。     

基于前景理论和统计推断的区间数多准则决策方法

针对准则权重不完全确定且准则值为区间数的多准则群决策问题,提出一种基于前景理论的多准则决策方法。基于统计推断原理,以各准则下的方案值为样本推断其发生的概率,进而确定期望值参考点。基于区间数可能度确定价值函数,以方案区分度最大为目标构建非线性优化模型并确定方案排序。最后,通过实例分析表明了所提出方法的有效性和可行性。     

一种面向效用值偏好信息的大群体决策方法

针对群体成员偏好信息以效用值形式给出的大群体决策问题.提出了判断群体成员提供信息量多寡程度的熵权方法,去除提供较少信息量的成员,形成群体关于决策方案的效用矩阵.利用聚类方法对大群体成员效用向量进行聚类.根据聚类结果确定成员权重,将该权重与效用矩阵合成获得决策方案排序向量.提出了成员意见反映度指标和差异度指标.对群决策结果进行评价.最后通过一个实例说明该方法的有效性和实用性.     

一种多准则纯语言群决策方法

针对权系数信息和方案的准则值为确定语言等级,或位于两个语言等级之间,甚至缺失的群决策问题,提出一种新的决策方法.该方法利用证据推理算法对准则权系数和方案值在准则下进行群体集成,采用二元语义对方案进行语言集结,并用方案与理想方案的二元语义间距离和群体集成信息等构建非线性规划模型,使用遗传算法求解优化模型,进而得到方案的排序.最后通过实例说明该方法的可行性和有效性.     

基于前景理论的多目标灰靶决策方法

针对权重信息部分已知且属性值为区间数的多目标决策问题,考虑决策者风险态度对多目标决策的影响,提出一种基于前景理论的区间数多目标灰靶决策方法.该方法利用奖优罚劣的区间数线性变换算子对原始决策信息进行规范化处理,设计正负理想靶心,并定义前景价值函数.利用该构建方案建立优化模型以得出最优权向量,并最终确定出方案的排序.最后,通过一个实例验证了该模型适用于具有风险态度特性的区间数多指标决策,并且表明了该模型的有效性和可行性.     

基于两参照点的动态混合多属性群决策算法

针对方案属性值为三参数区间灰数与三角模糊数相混合的动态多属性群决策问题,提出一种基于前景理论和两参照点的动态解决方案.针对灰数与模糊数混合的状况,提出混合靶心模型;设置时间参照点,通过均值和平均发展速度,考察各方案之间动态发展情况;利用向量之间的夹角,考察专家个体决策与群决策之间的相似度,建立相应的专家权重调整模型;考虑决策问题发展过程中的未来多个阶段,采用熵权法确定时间权重,并通过算例验证所提出方法的可行性和实用性.     

基于云模型的区间直觉模糊数多属性群决策

针对属性值为区间直觉模糊数的多属性群决策问题, 考虑到模糊性和随机性对群决策过程及结果的影响, 本研究将利用云模型理论结合区间直觉模糊数的特征, 运用灰色关联系数法和信息熵理论确定专家和属性权重, 通过信息集结构建综合评价云模型. 不同于传统的区间直觉模糊数的排序方法, 本研究利用云模型的3En规则将区间直觉模糊数进行云转换并通过云相似度确定方案的综合评价值和犹豫度, 然后对决策方案进行比较分析. 研究结果表明: 该方法能够科学有效地进行决策, 进而为决策方提供科学依据.     

基于冲突主体不确定证据融合的灰靶决策方法

研究基于冲突利益主体不完全确定权重信息情景下的群决策方法.把不完全确定的权重信息作为证据,建立了所有证据之间的距离最小测算模型,提出了不完全确定权重数值上、下限范围估计模型;为解决冲突证据的融合问题,提出了基于证据相似性的证据协调加权因子;建立了基于灰靶决策的靶心距分布范围确定模型,以排定方案优劣顺序.最后基于该方法探讨了某棕地开发方案的评价应用.     

基于权重集结和相对优势关系的多属性决策方法

分析多属性决策方法中决策矩阵规范化和属性权重计算等步骤可能对决策方法合理性造成的不良影响,为克服这些不良影响,提出一种新的多属性决策方法.该方法采用群决策模式进行赋权,在对专家意见进行一致性分析的基础上,集结各位专家给出的属性权重,通过定义备选方案在属性值为实数、区间数和语言值等不同类型属性上的相对优势关系构造判断矩阵,并以此建立方案效用值计算的线性目标规划模型,从而实现备选方案的评价和排序.实例研究表明了所提出方法的可行性和有效性.     

基于前景理论的交互式群组风险决策方法

为了克服现有方法因立论假设过于理想而存在决策结果的科学性和满意性较差以及决策过程效率低下等缺陷,基于前景理论构建了能够吸纳多种模糊信息且能从中识别有效前景的优选模型及判别定理,并针对结果价值的交互学习提出了具有收敛性的交互式决策方法。数值模拟分析表明,所提出的方法既能反映群组成员风险偏好,保证决策结果具有科学性、满意性,又能平衡信息完善程度与其获取成本之间的矛盾关系,保证决策过程具有有效性和可行性。     

综合集成与决策

在探索“从定性到定量的综合集成法”提出的动机与基本原理的基础上，讨论了综合集成与决策之间的关系，认为从定性到定量的综合集成体系的研究不能局限于决策与决策支持系统，而应将其视为科学创新的方法论．面对当前众多复杂的重大决策问题，应以综合集成理论作为决策研究的指导，建立综合集成型决策支持系统．     

基于直觉模糊推理的多属性群决策方法研究*

针对属性取值以直觉模糊数形式给出的多属性决策问题,提出了基于直觉模糊推理的多属性群决策方法。首先针对专家的评价信息构建直觉决策推理规则,然后根据规则之间的关系给出了决策推理模型,进而给出了基于直觉模糊推理的决策方法;最后通过购房实例验证了该方法的正确性和有效性。     

A framework for dynamic multiple-criteria decision making

The classic multiple-criteria decision making (MCDM) model assumes that, when taking a decision, the decision maker has defined a fixed set of criteria and is presented with a clear picture of all available alternatives. The task then reduces to computing the score of each alternative, thus producing a ranking, and choosing the one that maximizes this value.However, most real-world decisions take place in a dynamic environment, where the final decision is only taken at the end of some exploratory process. Exploration of the problem is often beneficial, in that it may unveil previously unconsidered alternatives or criteria, as well as render some of them unnecessary.In this paper we introduce a flexible framework for dynamic MCDM, based on the classic model, that can be applied to any dynamic decision process and which is illustrated by means of a small helicopter landing example. In addition, we outline a number of possible applications in very diverse fields, to highlight its versatility.     

Support for real-time decision making in mobile financial applications

Mobile users making real-time decisions based on current information need confidence that their context has been taken into consideration in producing the system’s recommendations. This chapter reviews current use of mobile technologies for context-aware real-time decision support. Specifically, it describes a framework for assessing the impact of mobility in decision making. The framework uses dynamic context model of data quality to represent uncertainties in the mobile decision-making environment. This framework can be used for developing visual interactive displays for communicating to the user relevant changes in data quality when working in mobile environments. As an illustration, this chapter proposes a real-time decision support procedure for on-the-spot assistance to the mobile consumer when choosing the best payment option to efficiently manage their budget. The proposed procedure is based on multi-attribute decision analysis, scenario reasoning, and a quality of data framework. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated with a mobile decision-support system prototype implementation. This article is part of the “Handbook on Decision Support Systems” edited by Frada Burstein and Clyde W. Holsapple (2008) Springer.     

三枝决策粗糙集

从贝叶斯理论出发,介绍基于三枝决策粗集理论。首先讨论在期望风险最小决策的语义下决策粗集理论基本模型的构建过程。其次,分析决策粗集三枝决策方法在不同概率区间犯错的可能性,并通过其与二枝决策及Pawlak粗集三枝决策的差异,给出决策粗集三枝决策方法优于其他两种决策方法的成立条件。最后,提供一种利用决策粗集三枝决策解决实际问题的方法。     

Multi-step ranking of alternatives in a multi-criteria and multi-expert decision making environment

In this work we introduce a decision model, in the form of a recursive aggregation algorithm, that attempts to mimic a multi-step ranking process of a set of alternatives in a multi-criteria and multi-expert decision making environment. The main idea is rather intuitive. Each alternative is initially assigned a list of values, representing the group experts’ opinion about the extent to which the alternative satisfies a set of given criteria. Then the values for each alternative are combined with the weighted mean operator according to vectors of weights, one for each decision maker in the group. These weights express the personal judgement of the decision makers about the relative importance of the individual criteria. Consequently, a new vector of values is obtained for each alternative. These new values are combined again with the weighted mean operator taking into account the different degrees of influence each decision maker accepts from the rest of the group. The latter aggregation step is repeated again and again for each alternative until a consensus is attained.     

一种基于vague集的模糊多目标决策新方法

提出一种新的基于vague集的模糊多目标决策方法。解决在无权重的情况下模糊多目标决策，所得的方法能更好的应用于模糊多目标决策，并通过例子阐明本文方法的有效性和优越性。     

New aggregation operators based on the Choquet integral and 2-tuple linguistic information

Considered in this paper is the group decision making problem with inter-dependent or interactive attributes, where evaluation values of decision makers are in linguistic arguments. By using the Choquet integral, some new aggregation operators are introduced, including the 2-tuple correlated averaging operator, the 2-tuple correlated geometric operator and the generalized 2-tuple correlated averaging operator. The proposed operators can better reflect the correlations among the elements. After investigating properties of these operators, a new multiple attribute decision making method based on the new operators is proposed. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method.     

C3Fire in command and control research

New and envisioned technological means and abilities for exerting command and control have increased the interest of man-machine research in a military context. Although there are many current proposals for how new command and control systems should be designed, many of the proposed properties that are considered advantageous have never been tested or could even be impossible to test in real-world situations. In spite of that, proposed design solutions are generally held valid in many Western countries where developments of major command and control system projects are in progress. An important question is how microworlds can be used for research on team decision-making. The use of microworlds gives us the possibility to create controlled settings and the opportunity to use advanced monitoring tools to study the subjects. Our studies indicate that the microworld concept, even though the simulation is fairly simple, reflects some of the crucial aspects of team-work in dynamic settings. The article presents results from a study in command and control using the C3Fire microworld (). Results and methodological issues are discussed.