Assessment of Social Services’ Disaster Risk Management: Case Finland

Local actors are crucial in disaster risk management; thus, their capacities should be assessed periodically. In this study, local social services’ preparedness plans were assessed using Emergency Management Program Measurement and quantitative document analysis. The specific aim was to study how social service areas of various sizes were prepared for disasters in Finland. The results showed that disaster risk management capacity varied significantly between large and small service areas. Larger areas were better prepared for supporting management, and had better procedures to activate their response, modern public information and deeper cooperation with the private sector and the civil society. The differences might derive from the fact that large areas have more resources allocated to disaster risk management.     

Risk Management in a Disaster Management Context

This paper discusses how the adoption of a systematic risk management framework can enhance disaster management. In the analysis of risk, a focus on the interactions between sources of risk and elements at risk, rather than a pre-occupation with hazards, adds more value to management. Vulnerability is the crucial modifier of consequences and, as such, its analysis highlights critical areas and opportunities for developing effective intervention strategies. Risk communication processes based on community involvement need to underpin the development and application of evaluation criteria to determine which risk treatments will be implemented. Closing considerations reflect on how risk management may be used within public administration to re-define emergency management service provision. The paper concludes that Emergency Risk Management provides a framework which, by focusing on managing community exposure to major risks, facilitates the identification and implementation of intervention options which address socially significant problems.     

A logistic regression framework for information technology outsourcing lifecycle management

We present a methodology for managing outsourcing projects from the vendor's perspective, designed to maximize the value to both the vendor and its clients. The methodology is applicable across the outsourcing lifecycle, providing the capability to select and target new clients, manage the existing client portfolio and quantify the realized benefits to the client resulting from the outsourcing agreement. Specifically, we develop a statistical analysis framework to model client behavior at each stage of the outsourcing lifecycle, including: (1) a predictive model and tool for white space client targeting and selection—opportunity identification (2) a model and tool for client risk assessment and project portfolio management—client tracking, and (3) a systematic analysis of outsourcing results, impact analysis, to gain insights into potential benefits of IT outsourcing as a part of a successful management strategy. Our analysis is formulated in a logistic regression framework, modified to allow for non-linear input–output relationships, auxiliary variables, and small sample sizes. We provide examples to illustrate how the methodology has been successfully implemented for targeting, tracking, and assessing outsourcing clients within IBM global services division.Scope and purposeThe predominant literature on IT outsourcing often examines various aspects of vendor–client relationship, strategies for successful outsourcing from the client perspective, and key sources of risk to the client, generally ignoring the risk to the vendor. However, in the rapidly changing market, a significant share of risks and responsibilities falls on vendor, as outsourcing contracts are often renegotiated, providers replaced, or services brought back in house. With the transformation of outsourcing engagements, the risk on the vendor's side has increased substantially, driving the vendor's financial and business performance and eventually impacting the value delivery to the client. As a result, only well-ran vendor firms with robust processes and tools that allow identification and active management of risk at all stages of the outsourcing lifecycle are able to deliver value to the client. This paper presents a framework and methodology for managing a portfolio of outsourcing projects from the vendor's perspective, throughout the entire outsourcing lifecycle. We address three key stages of the outsourcing process: (1) opportunity identification and qualification (i.e. selection of the most likely new clients), (2) client portfolio risk management during engagement and delivery, and (3) quantification of benefits to the client throughout the life of the deal.     

分布式信息系统风险评估研究-以安徽烟草为例

对分布式信息系统所面临的主要风险进行识别和评估是构建灾备系统的首要任务。以安徽烟草分布式信息系统为例,首先分析了该信息系统在环境、管理、技术、设备等方面所存在的风险,然后以层次分析法为核心构造了评估决策模型,结合专家打分,计算出各类风险对安徽烟草信息系统的威胁程度并进行排序,从而识别出主要的风险源,为构建灾备体系提供依据。     

Towards multi-agency sensor information integration for disaster management

Having access to real-time spatial information is central to the functioning of disaster management, and in particular disaster response. Existing spatially-enabled solutions for managing urban disasters provide limited support for time-sensitivity and urgency underlying emergency situations. These approaches mainly suffer from low temporal resolution and inability to source a broad range of required disaster data, together with insufficient support for automated operations. However, disaster management procedures, integrated with in situ sensing, promise an extensive range of real-time data and automated processes to acquire and manage disaster information. In this research, we study the process of integrating multi-agency in situ sensors for supporting disaster management. For this purpose, the research was adopted in Australia as the case study area in disaster management of a flood by emphasizing on the response phase. This paper first identifies the issues and existing requirements in the process of multi-agency sensor information integration and then proposes a standard-based approach to overcoming these integration issues. Afterward, based on the presented approach and identified requirements, a GIS-based software IDDSS-Sensor is implemented to provide the functions of standard-based access, as well as on-the-fly harmonization, integration and usage of multi-agency sensor information. We evaluate the applicability of our developed approach by applying it to the use case of supporting flash flood evacuation response.     

信息系统项目的风险管理探讨

项目风险管理是项目管理的重要组成部分,信息系统项目的风险管理在信息系统项目的管理中起着至关重要的作用。信息系统项目的风险管理能为企业领导提供更好的决策支持,为企业运营提供更有效的管控手段。通过对信息系统项目的风险进行定性分析和定量分析,对风险进行排序和量化,然后对风险进行实时的动态监测,制定风险应对措施。风险具有多样性、复杂性、隐蔽性等特征,要对关涉信息系统项目安全的风险因素进行识别与分析,然后通过对风险进行监控和跟踪,实现信息系统项目管理的良性循环。     

Utilizing enterprise systems for managing enterprise risks

Enterprise risk management is a critical concept in the current business environment that supports use of tools and processes directed toward monitoring and mitigating organizational risks. Many organizations have embraced enterprise systems (ESs) technology for improving organizational efficiency and effectiveness. ESs provide value by identifying opportunities in operations and assist in managing risks through context sensitive analyses by eliciting relevant information. This research investigates how ES data were transformed into knowledge by a hi-tech manufacturing firm from an ES implementation, and how this knowledge was used to manage risks by utilizing an ES data transformation model from existing literature. Findings indicate that the ES data transformation process resulted from knowledge-leveraging actions at both executive and operational levels. At the executive level, the use of business intelligence module in conjunction with cascades of balanced scorecards helped in assessing progress for achieving goals, and translated decisions into risk-eliminating actions at the operational level. An initial technology-push approach assisted in creating semantically rich representative process models by simulating risk scenarios, leading to a strategy-pull approach for deploying business strategies and decisions. A value assessment strategic model articulates the knowledge-leveraging processes combining human skills with ES tools to optimize enterprise risks.     

A Cognitive Model of Improvisation in Emergency Management

An enduring characteristic of emergencies is the need for near-simultaneous development and deployment of new management procedures. This need can arise with the onset of highly novel problems and the need to act quickly-factors that reduce opportunities for extensive planning in managing the emergency. As a result, decision makers in emergencies must be prepared to improvise. By understanding the cognitive processes in improvisation, organizations can better learn how to plan for, manage, and learn from improvised action. To help create this understanding, this paper reviews and synthesizes prior results on improvisation in the art of jazz, exploring how these results may be applied to improvisation in emergency management. A theory of improvisation in emergency management is then developed and expressed as a cognitive model. The modelpsilas implementation in computer-executable code is then reviewed, along with an illustration of how the model improvises in an emergency situation. Finally, implications of this model and opportunities for future research are presented.     

Integrating Information Technology into International Crisis Management and Policy

Decision processes in disaster environments pose a special challenge to rational problem solving. The urgency, complexity and uncertainty of disaster environments test the limits of human capacity for seeking, processing and disseminating information to support coordinated action. Current information technology offers a means of extending human problem solving capacity through an interactive, intelligent, spatial information system, if it is supported by a parallel organizational system designed to facilitate coordinated action. A preliminary model of organizational problem solving is proposed, focusing on the global problem of seismic risk. The model relies on the function of information technology to reduce uncertainty by increasing the timeliness and accuracy of information to disaster managers, thereby improving coordination in organizational performance. The model links information technology to organizational structure in ways that create feedback channels, improve organizational learning and increase capacity to correct organizational mistakes. The model is presented in terms of structuring technical and organizational conditions to support improved capacity for organizational problem solving in communities vulnerable to seismic risk. Illustrative data from a series of seven earthquake disasters demonstrate an evolving receptiveness to the integration of information technology into international crisis policy and practice.     

Risks to Effective Knowledge Sharing in Agile Software Teams: A Model for Assessing and Mitigating Risks

We present an empirically grounded and theoretically informed model for the assessment and mitigation of risks to effective knowledge sharing in agile development. The model is anchored in empirical insights from four agile projects across two software companies and in extant research on risk‐strategy analysis and knowledge sharing in software development. We develop the model as part of the long‐standing tradition of presenting risk management models dedicated to specific issues in software development and confirm its practical usefulness in one of the software companies studied. The model offers concepts and processes to assess a project's knowledge sharing risk profile and articulate an overall resolution strategy plan to mitigate the risks. The results highlight how different knowledge sharing risk management profiles can lead to different project performance outcomes. We conclude with a discussion of research opportunities that the results offer software development scholarship. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

A study on bunker fuel management for the shipping liner services

In this paper, we consider a bunker fuel management strategy study for a single shipping liner service. The bunker fuel management strategy includes three components: bunkering ports selection (where to bunker), bunkering amounts determination (how much to bunker) and ship speeds adjustment (how to adjust the ship speeds along the service route). As these three components are interrelated, it is necessary to optimize them jointly in order to obtain an optimal bunker fuel management strategy for a single shipping liner service. As an appropriate model representing the relationship between bunker fuel consumption rate and ship speed is important in the bunker fuel management strategy, we first study in detail this empirical relationship. We find that the relationship can be different for different sizes of containerships and provide an empirical model to express this relationship for different sizes of containerships based on real data obtained from a shipping company. We further highlight the importance of using the appropriate consumption rate model in the bunker fuel management strategy as using a wrong or aggregated model can result in inferior or suboptimal strategies. We then develop a planning level model to determine the optimal bunker fuel management strategy, i.e. optimal bunkering ports, bunkering amounts and ship speeds, so as to minimize total bunker fuel related cost for a single shipping liner service. Based on the optimization model, we study the effects of port arrival time windows, bunker fuel prices, ship bunker fuel capacity and skipping port options on the bunker fuel management strategy of a single shipping liner service. We finally provide some insights obtained from two case studies.     

Capacity Planning in a Transitional Setting with Simulation-based Modeling: A Case Study

Significant progress has been made in the development of modeling and analysis frameworks for the purpose of supporting senior executives in their task of strategy formulation and evaluation. Using the case study British Synthetic Fibres Ltd, the important strategic task of capacity planning is addressed in a transitional setting. The paper illustrates the use of influence diagrams, the development of a spreadsheet model in a language facilitating easy communication with senior management, and the strength of risk analysis as effective tools for managing the capacity-planning process. Special emphasis is placed on the benefits and insights to be gained from this approach in evaluating strategic options in the context of the case study.     

FlowWiki: A wiki based platform for ad hoc collaborative workflows

Traditional workflow management systems provide rich capabilities for designing, executing, and monitoring well-defined collaborative processes. Yet, for many occasions of collaboration, we do not often have sufficient information about who will participate, what activities people will carry out, and how the entire workflow will change. Accordingly, the problem of managing flexible workflows has been receiving increasing attention during the last decade. This paper presents a novel approach by which collaborative workflows can be configured independently as needed by participants and managed in an ad hoc way. Motivated by the emerging paradigm of collective intelligence, the proposed platform, named FlowWiki, provides a set of useful mechanisms to enable dynamic collaborations without requiring prescribed collaboration model. FlowWiki is an extension of conventional wiki system, and it aims for flexibly managing collaborative workflows by allowing on-demand workflow configuration and event-driven interactions.     

面向受灾差异的跨区域应急救援路径优化

关注各灾区待救人员的不同受伤程度,用“伤员在途可坚持时间”的区别来表征差异化受灾情形,研究带有时间窗限制、基于受灾差异的跨区域应急救援路径优化问题.构建以最小化救援车辆行车总时间为决策目标的车辆路径模型,设计蚁群算法对仿真算例进行求解.讨论考虑受灾差异因素对整个跨区域救援路径优化方案的影响,并对以决策者风险态度为例的关键参数实施敏感性分析.研究结果可为构建高效的应急管理体系提供有益参考.     

组合对象信息安全风险评估研究

风险评估已经成为信息安全管理的重要组成部分,其方法的选择直接影响着风险结果的准确性和客观性,进而会影响到组织的整体信息安全水平。目前很多评估方法仅能对单个资产的威胁和脆弱性进行分析,并直接采用调查问卷或矩阵的方式得到风险,而没有从面向对象的角度给出威胁相对于系统的客观的整体风险值。论文提出了一种针对组合对象的定性与定量相结合的风险评估方法,有效解决了上述问题,并给出了合理的风险计算公式。     

Challenges and obstacles in sharing and coordinating information during multi-agency disaster response: Propositions from field exercises

Although various scholars have researched issues regarding disaster management, few have studied the sharing and coordinating of information during disasters. Not much empirical data is available in this field and there is sparse insight into the factors that may impede or facilitate information sharing and coordination among stakeholders. In this paper, we provide an overview of the relevant obstacles and challenges by examining existing literature and then investigating a series of multi-agency disaster management exercises, using observations and a survey. Although all the people who took part in our study agree that sharing information is important, for the success of their own organization as well as the exercise as a whole, the extent to which information is actually being shared among organizations is often limited by a number of factors that can be attributed to the community, agency and individual level. We found that relief workers are often more concerned with receiving information from others than with providing information to others who may benefit. Incentives for sharing information, understanding each other’s work-processes and the usability of information systems have shown positive effects on information sharing and coordination. The findings of our study have been formulated using six grounded propositions, which can be used by system designers and policy-makers upon validation in further research. We also provide directions for future research.     

城市埋地燃气管网风险模糊综合评价 ——系统设计及应用研究

实施燃气管网风险评价对城市公共安全与防灾减灾具有重大的意义。在建立模糊综合评价模型后,要实现计算机程序化,才能够高效地应用到工程领域中,介绍了模糊综合评价模型的程序化,并且结合计算机辅助设计技术,提出了基于WebGIS的燃气管网风险模糊综合评价系统的总体设计思路和方法,分析了系统的设计特点和技术特色。结合工程应用实例,展示系统设计开发的可行性和实际应用效果,它可成为燃气管网安全管理的一套可视化管理工具,可有效地提供辅助决策支持。     

A software library for quantifying regional-scale nitrogen transport within river basin systems

A software library for quantifying nitrogen fate and transport at the regional-scale is presented as a tool for managing river basin systems. The tool is based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model and implements the prediction portion of SPARROW to quantify overland and in-stream losses of nitrogen within a river basin system. The intention of the software library is to serve as an Application Programmers Interface (API) that can be used to construct analysis and visualization tools that address a variety of management scenarios. By leveraging the API along with other existing open source and freely available software libraries for visualization, numerical methods, and network algorithms, it is possible to produce decision support tools that relate pollution sources to downstream loadings. These tools can be used by water resource managers to understand how hypothetical regional-scale changes to the landscape (e.g. land use change) might impact water quality conditions. The use of the model API is demonstrated with a case study that addresses three potential management questions regarding nitrogen fate and transport in the Upper Neuse River Basin of North Carolina.     

An integrated flood management system based on linking environmental models and disaster-related data

The flood disaster management system (FDMS) is a platform developed to provide ongoing disaster reduction capabilities that cover the entire process of flood management. The ontology-based approach links environmental models with disaster-related data to support FDMS-constructed workflows with suitable models and recommend appropriate datasets as model input automatically. This automated activity for model selection and data binding reduces the time-consuming and unreliable operations involved in traditional management techniques, which rely on manual retrieval through simple metadata indices—typically when flood management personnel are overwhelmed with large quantities of observed data. The OpenMI-based modular design used in the system unifies interfaces and data exchange to provide flexible and extensible architecture. Subsequent 3D visualization improves the interpretability of disaster data and the effectiveness of decision-making processes. This paper presents an overview of the design and capabilities of FDMS that provides one-stop management for flood disasters.     

A framework for benchmarking service process using data envelopment analysis and decision tree

With the increase in the influence of service industry on the economy, more and more firms are becoming concern about service and service management. Unlike tangible products, since service is a delivery system, designing and controlling delivery process are important in management of services. One of the most important issues in managing service delivery process is how to find out and improve inefficient process in an organization. Once inefficient processes are found, it should be determined which process is to be improved first, since it is impossible for any firm to improve all of their inefficient processes simultaneously. Then, in order to get some ideas about improvement, selecting a benchmark process is required. The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic approach for benchmarking service process. We used the integrated form of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and decision tree (DT) as a benchmarking method instead of using DEA alone. Although DEA is a useful technique for benchmarking, it fails to give any clear directions as to which process should be improved first. The proposed approach enables firm’s manager to find inefficient service units in a firm-level and inefficient processes in a service unit-level. The proposed approach also allows the manager to select which process to improve first and which process a benchmark for referencing. As a result, it can be helpful for operating and managing firms’ processes. To show how useful the suggested service process benchmarking framework is, an illustrative example is addressed.