Product Demand Forecasting with a Novel Fuzzy CMAC

Forecasting product demand has always been a crucial challenge for managers as they play an important role in making many business critical decisions such as production and inventory planning. These decisions are instrumental in meeting customer demand and ensuring the survival of the organization. This paper introduces a novel Fuzzy Cerebellar-Model-Articulation-Controller (FCMAC) with a Truth Value Restriction (TVR) inference scheme for time-series forecasting and investigates its performance in comparison to established techniques such as the Single Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Linear Trend, Holt-Winter’s Additive methods, the Box-Jenkin’s ARIMA model, radial basis function networks, and multi-layer perceptrons. Our experiments are conducted on the product demand data from the M3 Competition and the US Census Bureau. The results reveal that the FCMAC model yields lower errors for these data sets. The conditions under which the FCMAC model emerged significantly superior are discussed.     

Modular production systems: a new manufacturing paradigm

It is well recognized that manufacturers of consumer goods throughout the world are facing major new demands, including shorter product life-cycles and increasing competition. In response, companies are restructuring and moving away from traditional process-centred work practices in favour of concurrent engineering methods. In particular, design for manufacture has gained widespread recognition as a means of reducing production costs and lead times. However, optimal design for manufacture is difficult to achieve using current-day work organization and business structures. An underlying problem is the lack of a scientific framework for production. To address this need, this paper proposes a radical and far-reaching new manufacturing paradigm based upon on building production systems from standardized modular machines. The manufacturing concept, termed modular production systems (MPS), is aimed specifically at hard low- to medium-technology consumer products, as typified by goods such as childrens toys and kitchen appliances. The rationale for MPS as a means of enabling concurrent product and production system design is put forward, and the long-term implications and work required to establish the concept are discussed.     

Opportunity explorer: Navigating large databases using knowledge discovery templates

TheNielsen Opportunity Explorer ^tmproduct can be used by sales and trade marketing personnel within consumer packaged goods manufacturers to understand how their products are performing in the market place and find opportunities to sell more product, more profitably to the retailers. Opportunity Explorer uses data collected at the point-of-sale terminals, and by auditors of A. C. Nielsen. Opportunity Explorer uses a knowledge-base of market research expertise to analyze large databases and generate interactive reports using knowledge discovery templates, converting a large space of data into concise, inter-linkedinformation frames. Each information frame addresses specific business issues, and leads the user to seek related information by means of dynamically created hyperlinks.     

Are web applications more defect-prone than desktop applications?

A lot of effort in the literature has been devoted to define and validate fault taxonomies and models related to different domains, e.g. Service-oriented and Web systems, and properties, e.g. software quality and security. Nevertheless, few attempts were carried out to understand the specific nature of Web bugs and their distribution among the layers of a typical application’s architecture—presentation layer, business logic and data logic. In this paper, we present an experimental investigation aimed at studying the distribution of bugs among different layers of Web and Desktop applications. The experiment follows a well-defined procedure executed by six bachelor students. Overall, the analysis considers 1,472 bugs belonging to 20 different applications. The experimental study provides strong evidence that the presentation layer in Web applications is more defect-prone than the analogous layer in Desktop applications. An additional factor influencing the distribution of defects is represented by the application domain.     

Metrics for BPEL process context-independency analysis

BPEL processes are workflow-oriented composite services for service-oriented solutions. Rapidly changing environment and turbulent market conditions require flexible BPEL processes to adapt with several modifications during their life cycles. Such adaptability and flexibility require the low degree of dependency or coupling between a BPEL process and its surrounding environment. In fact, heavy coupling and context dependency with partners provoke several undesirable drawbacks such as poor understandability, inflexibility, inadaptability, and defects. This paper is to propose metrics at the design phase to measure BPEL process context independency. With the aid of these metrics, the architect could analyze and control the context independency of a BPEL process quantitatively. To validate the metrics, authors collected a data set consisting 70 BPEL processes and also gathered the expert’s rating of context independency through conducting a controlled experiment. The obtained results reveal that there exists a high statistical correlation between the proposed metrics and the expert’s judgment of context independency.     

Towards a business process-oriented approach to enterprise content management: the ECM-blueprinting framework

In today’s digital information age, companies are struggling with an immense overload of mainly unstructured data. Reducing search times, fulfilling compliance requirements and maintaining information quality represent only three of the challenges that organisations from all industry sectors are faced with. Enterprise content management (ECM) has emerged as a promising approach addressing these challenges. Yet, there are still numerous obstacles to the implementation of ECM technologies, particularly fostered by the fact that the key challenges of ECM adaptation processes are rather organisational than technological. In the present article we claim that the consideration of an organisation’s business process structure is particularly crucial for ECM success. In response to this, we introduce a process-oriented conceptual framework that systematises the key steps of an ECM adoption. The paper suggests that ECM and business process management are two strongly related fields of research.     

Measuring fidelity to extreme programming: a psychometric approach

This study assesses the Shodan survey as an instrument for measuring an individual’s or a team’s adherence to the extreme programming (XP) methodology. Specifically, we hypothesize that the adherence to the XP methodology is not a uni-dimensional construct as presented by the Shodan survey but a multidimensional one reflecting dimensions that are theoretically grounded in the XP literature. Using data from software engineers in the University of Sheffield’s Software Engineering Observatory, two different models were thus tested and compared using confirmatory factor analysis: a uni-dimensional model and a four-dimensional model. We also present an exploratory analysis of how these four dimensions affect students’ grades. The results indicate that the four-dimensional model fits the data better than the uni-dimensional one. Nevertheless, the analysis also uncovered flaws with the Shodan survey in terms of the reliability of the different dimensions. The exploratory analysis revealed that some of the XP dimensions had linear or curvilinear relationship with grades. Through validating the four-dimensional model of the Shodan survey this study highlights how psychometric techniques can be used to develop software engineering metrics of fidelity to agile or other software engineering methods.     

Service-oriented manufacturing: a new product pattern and manufacturing paradigm

Service plays an increasingly important role in modern manufacturing: (a) Services and physical products are integrated into one product service system (PSS) to provide a comprehensive solution for customers; (b) The companies involved in offering PSS focus on specialized sectors, and provide producer services for one another. In this paper, the new product pattern together with the innovative manufacturing paradigm is called service-oriented manufacturing. The competitive advantage of a PSS can be originated from products or services, and the ownership of PSS’s may or may not be transferred from sellers to buyers during transactions. Various PSS’s were categorized into three classes. The characteristics of each type of PSS’s and the shift between them are discussed. Many companies, which provide producer services and manufacturing services to one another, form a service-based manufacturing network. The reasons why producer services act as intermediate goods among different companies and motivations for companies to outsource their business processes are analyzed economically. Many companies in different segments of the production-chain may have discrepant profitability. Technology strength and industry insight competences are adopted to explain the discrepant values added from various segments along the production chain. Service-oriented manufacturing is summarized from the perspectives of business model, industry insight and technology strength (BIT).     

Pargnostics: screen-space metrics for parallel coordinates

Interactive visualization requires the translation of data into a screen space of limited resolution. While currently ignored by most visualization models, this translation entails a loss of information and the introduction of a number of artifacts that can be useful, (e.g., aggregation, structures) or distracting (e.g., over-plotting, clutter) for the analysis. This phenomenon is observed in parallel coordinates, where overlapping lines between adjacent axes form distinct patterns, representing the relation between variables they connect. However, even for a small number of dimensions, the challenge is to effectively convey the relationships for all combinations of dimensions. The size of the dataset and a large number of dimensions only add to the complexity of this problem. To address these issues, we propose Pargnostics, parallel coordinates diagnostics, a model based on screen-space metrics that quantify the different visual structures. Pargnostics metrics are calculated for pairs of axes and take into account the resolution of the display as well as potential axis inversions. Metrics include the number of line crossings, crossing angles, convergence, overplotting, etc. To construct a visualization view, the user can pick from a ranked display showing pairs of coordinate axes and the structures between them, or examine all possible combinations of axes at once in a matrix display. Picking the best axes layout is an NP-complete problem in general, but we provide a way of automatically optimizing the display according to the user’s preferences based on our metrics and model.     

The impact of age and shopping experiences on the classification of search, experience, and credence goods in online shopping

This study explores how age and consumers’ Web shopping experience influence the search, experience, and credence (SEC) ratings of products and services in online shopping. Using the survey data collected from 549 consumers, we investigated how they perceived the uncertainty of product quality on six search, experience, and credence goods. The ANOVA results show that age and the Web consumers’ shopping experience are significant factors. A generation gap is identified for all but one experience good. Web shopping experience is not a significant factor for search goods but is for experience and credence goods. There is an interaction effect between age and Web shopping experience for one credence good. Implications of these results are discussed.     

A novel agent-based concept of household appliances

Mass production, such as white goods manufacturing, is traditionally bound to hierarchical factory-floor procedures and accepts only gradual changes in technology and product architecture. This paper introduces an idea on how to upgrade from classical to network-connected reconfigurable devices. A generic multi-agent architecture was created, derived from belief-desire-and-intention (BDI) agents. It covers all types of white goods in the form of rational home assistant, and enables reconfiguration of agent-based household appliances during the design, production and implementation phases. The introduced concept involves a multi-agent architecture which utilizes distributed processing power at different levels: higher-level agents run on more powerful devices than embedded appliance’s controllers, personal assistant (PDAs), or Windows or Linux based personal computers (PCs). PDAs can run a single agent, for example a GUI agent, whereas the embedded controllers execute lower-level device (embedded) agents. In this way, all the appliance’s basic functionality, such as its hardware units (e.g., electrical motors, valves, heaters, etc.), are initially simulated by auxiliary agents running together with higher-level agents on a PC or PDA. Using this simulator in the design phase, all vital functions and capabilities of the agent-based appliance under development are thoroughly tested first. Afterwards, the agents that simulate the device’s hardware units and environment are simply replaced by the communication to the corresponding device units. In such way, any new functionality or device’s behaviour can be upgraded any time just by adapting the core of the multi-agent architecture on the PC and individual agents on the PDA or the embedded agents in appliances. A thorough design and implementation cycle of the proposed solution using two freeware development tools is also described, i.e., the Prometheus agent design methodology and the agent simulation/execution environment called Jadex. The approach is exemplified by building a simulator of an agent-based household appliance, namely a Multi-agent Washing Assistant as a special instance of rational home assistant.     

An investigation of the effect of online consumer trust on expectation, satisfaction, and post-expectation

This study proposes a framework regarding the relationship between consumer trust, satisfaction, expectation, and post-expectation in the context of electronic commerce. In particular, the framework draws together from three theories: social exchange theory, expectation-confirmation theory, and post-acceptance model of IS continuance. Following the longitudinal pre-purchase and post-purchase stages, this study provides a theoretical framework combining trust, expectation, satisfaction, and post-expectation (i.e., perceived usefulness) and tests the proposed model empirically using Internet consumer behavior data collected via two rounds of Web surveys. The empirical findings suggest that both consumer’s trust and expectation have positive influences on consumer’s satisfaction; a significant and positive relationship is detected between consumer’s trust and expectation; customer’s satisfaction and perceived usefulness as post-expectation belief are important predictors of repurchase intention. In consequence, the study provides a framework explaining the subsequent relationships of trust, expectation, confirmation, satisfaction, post-expectation, and repurchase intention (i.e., consumer trust → expectation → confirmation → satisfaction → post-expectation → repurchase intention) across pre-purchase and post-purchase stages. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

A DFT Approach for Testing Embedded Systems Using DC Sensors

Today's consumer electronics must be portable, reliable at various operating environments, and power efficient. Thus, semiconductor manufacturers constantly upgrade their production technologies and incorporate intelligent circuit design techniques. With widespread advances in system integration techniques, manufacturers can bundle multiple functionalities onto a single chip, reducing the end product's form factor. However, with higher levels of integration and reduced pin count, test issues are becoming more critical. During high-volume production, variations in process parameters cause devices to vary significantly from their performance metrics, and test engineers have only limited test resources to perform at-speed testing. Generating diagnosis information is also challenging during product ramp-up, as very little information is available from the output pins about the different modules' functionalities. DFT seems to be the only viable solution in such a scenario. DFT can address various issues related to at-speed testing and high-speed test response capture by performing signal conditioning to more easily capture information at lower speeds. The authors present a method that uses embedded DC sensors at test observation nodes to simplify data capture and enhance test quality while performing at-speed tests during production testing. Experiments show that monitoring sensor outputs provides a very good estimate of complex, system-level specifications.     

Managing the business of software product line: An empirical investigation of key business factors

Business has been highlighted as a one of the critical dimensions of software product line engineering. This paper’s main contribution is to increase the understanding of the influence of key business factors by showing empirically that they play an imperative role in managing a successful software product line. A quantitative survey of software organizations currently involved in the business of developing software product lines over a wide range of operations, including consumer electronics, telecommunications, avionics, and information technology, was designed to test the conceptual model and hypotheses of the study. This is the first study to demonstrate the relationships between the key business factors and software product lines. The results provide evidence that organizations in the business of software product line development have to cope with multiple key business factors to improve the overall performance of the business, in addition to their efforts in software development. The conclusions of this investigation reinforce current perceptions of the significance of key business factors in successful software product line business.     

A methodical procedure for designing consumer oriented on-demand IT service propositions

IT providers are increasingly facing the challenge to adapt their previously resource oriented service portfolios in order to offer their customers services which explicitly support business processes. Such customer centric service propositions, however, seem to contradict the demand for standardized and automated operational IT processes more than traditional IT service offers, as they are even more subject to customer individual reengineering efforts due to permanently changing business requirements. In order to reconcile increased efficiency in operational processes and effectiveness in consumer oriented service propositions, we propose (1) to predefine all service propositions in consideration of both consumer oriented commitments and operational processes, and (2) to allow for standardized customization by offering a selection of complementary service propositions that extend commitments regarding customer oriented functionality and performance. Such service propositions are aligned with a company’s entities such as workplaces. Thereby the customer organization is enabled to trace, control and adjust commitments, value and expenses of IT services per entity in its business. We introduce a procedural model for designing and on-demand requesting this kind of service propositions, and we illustrate the model’s application and impact by examples taken from two large projects with an associated IT provider.     

Belief rule-based methodology for mapping consumer preferences and setting product targets

Rapid and accurate identification of consumer demands and systematic assessment of product quality are essential to success for new product development, in particular for fast moving consumer goods such as food and drink products. This paper reports an investigation into a belief rule-based (BRB) methodology for quality assessment, target setting and consumer preference prediction in retro-fit design of food and drink products. The BRB methodology can be used to represent the relationships between consumer preferences and product attributes, which are complicated and nonlinear. A BRB system can initially be established using expert knowledge and then optimally trained and validated using data generated from consumer or expert panel assessments or from tests and experiments. The established BRBs can then be used to predict the consumer acceptance of new products or set product target values in retro-fit design. The proposed BRB methodology is applied to the design of a lemonade drink product using real data provided by a sensory product manufacturer in the UK. The results show that the BRB methodology can be used to predict consumer preferences with high accuracy and to set optimal target values for product quality improvement.     

全球仓库配送系统创建高效的物流

The heart of any modern manufacturing business is an efficient warehouse management and distribution service. Customers' expectations about product delivery times and availability have changed such that they demand fast service-at low cost and with low errors. This paper introduces a computerized system solution called Warehouse Administration Service System or WASS, which enables the manufacturers, especially those manufacturers who are doing global business, to control their product flow from production to the customer. WASS supports the receiving, storing, shipping and inventory management of goods in which manufacturers create an effective logistics and supply chain management. The paper also shows the successful case that SKF* uses the WASS in its global warehouse distribution network to service customers in the most efficient way and concept of green supply chain.     

Discovering colored Petri nets from event logs

Process-aware information systems typically log events (e.g., in transaction logs or audit trails) related to the actual execution of business processes. Analysis of these execution logs may reveal important knowledge that can help organizations to improve the quality of their services. Starting from a process model, which can be discovered by conventional process mining algorithms, we analyze how data attributes influence the choices made in the process based on past process executions using decision mining, also referred to as decision point analysis. In this paper we describe how the resulting model (including the discovered data dependencies) can be represented as a Colored Petri Net (CPN), and how further perspectives, such as the performance and organizational perspective, can be incorporated. We also present a CPN Tools Export plug-in implemented within the ProM framework. Using this plug-in, simulation models in ProM obtained via a combination of various process mining techniques can be exported to CPN Tools. We believe that the combination of automatic discovery of process models using ProM and the simulation capabilities of CPN Tools offers an innovative way to improve business processes. The discovered process model describes reality better than most hand-crafted simulation models. Moreover, the simulation models are constructed in such a way that it is easy to explore various redesigns. A. Rozinat’s research was supported by the IOP program of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. M. Song’s research was supported by the Technology Foundation STW.     

The promising future of healthcare services: When big data analytics meets wearable technology

As policy-makers and business practitioners across the globe expend extraordinary effort toward the field of e-health, the thriving development of healthcare-wearable technology is creating great opportunities and posing a remarkable future for healthcare services. This paper employs a game theory model to investigate the dynamics of wearable device market. We extend the two-dimensional product differentiation model by incorporating consumer diversity, consumer density, and firms’ big data analytics (BDA) investment strategy. Our model reveals that with differentiated consumer densities firms are more likely to engage in quality competition and the firm that invests in BDA can achieve higher profits. Furthermore, the overall quality of biomedical and healthcare services can be improved under various market conditions. Our findings provide practical guidance to wearable device manufacturers on optimizing competition strategies and offer insights to social planners on potential policy-making to promote better healthcare services.     

Taxonomy of quality metrics for assessing assurance of security correctness

Assurance is commonly considered as “something said or done to inspire confidence” (Webster dictionary). However, the level of confidence inspired from a statement or an action depends on the quality of its source. Similarly, the assurance that the deployed security mechanisms exhibit an appropriate posture depends on the quality of the verification process adopted. This paper presents a novel taxonomy of quality metrics pertinent for gaining assurance in a security verification process. Inspired by the systems security engineering capability maturity model and the common criteria, we introduce five ordinal quality levels for a verification process aimed at probing the correctness of runtime security mechanisms. In addition, we analyse the mapping between the quality levels and different capability levels of the following verification metrics families: coverage, rigour, depth and independence of verification. The quality taxonomy is part of a framework for the Security Assurance of operational systems. These metrics can also be used for gaining assurance in other areas such as legal and safety compliance. Furthermore, the resulting metrics taxonomy could, by identifying appropriate quality security requirements, assist manufacturers of information technology (IT) in developing their products or systems. Additionally, the taxonomy could also empower consumers in IT security product selection to efficaciously and effectively match their organisational needs, while IT security evaluators can use it as a reference point when forming judgments about the quality of a security product. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed taxonomy through access control examples.