A nonparametric test for the equality of counting processes with panel count data

This paper considers the problem of nonparametric comparison of counting processes with panel count data, which arise naturally when recurrent events are considered. For the problem considered, we construct a new nonparametric test statistic based on the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the mean function of the counting processes over observation times. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic is derived and its finite-sample property is examined through Monte Carlo simulations. The simulation results show that the proposed method is good for practical use and also more powerful than the existing nonparametric tests based on the nonparametric maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator. A set of panel count data from a floating gallstone study is analyzed and presented as an illustrative example.     

Local polynomial estimation in partial linear regression models under dependence

A regression model whose regression function is the sum of a linear and a nonparametric component is presented. The design is random and the response and explanatory variables satisfy mixing conditions. A new local polynomial type estimator for the nonparametric component of the model is proposed and its asymptotic normality is obtained. Specifically, this estimator works on a prewhitening transformation of the dependent variable, and the results show that it is asymptotically more efficient than the conventional estimator (which works on the original dependent variable) when the errors of the model are autocorrelated. A simulation study and an application to a real data set give promising results.     

On the performance of some non-parametric estimators of the conditional survival function with interval-censored data

Simple nonparametric estimators of the conditional distribution of a response variable given a continuous covariate are often useful in survival analysis. Since a few nonparametric estimation options are available, a comparison of the performance of these options may be of value to determine which approach to use in a given application. In this note, we compare various nonparametric estimators of the conditional survival function when the response is subject to interval- and right-censoring. The estimators considered are a generalization of Turnbull’s estimator proposed by Dehghan and Duchesne (2011) and two nonparametric estimators for complete or right-censored data used in conjunction with imputation methods, namely the Nadaraya-Watson and generalized Kaplan-Meier estimators. We study the finite sample integrated mean squared error properties of all these estimators by simulation and compare them to a semi-parametric estimator. We propose a rule-of-thumb based on simple sample summary statistics to choose the most appropriate among these estimators in practice.     

Nonparametric conditional hazard rate estimation: A local linear approach

A new nonparametric estimator for the conditional hazard rate is proposed, which is defined as the ratio of local linear estimators for the conditional density and survivor function. The resulting hazard rate estimator is shown to be pointwise consistent and asymptotically normally distributed under appropriate conditions. Furthermore, plug-in bandwidths based on normal and uniform reference distributions and minimizing the asymptotic mean squared error are derived. In terms of the mean squared error the new estimator is highly competitive in comparison to existing estimators for the conditional hazard rate. Moreover, its smoothing parameters are relatively robust to misspecification of the reference distributions, which facilitates bandwidth selection. Additionally, the new hazard rate estimator is conveniently calculated using standard software for local linear regression. The use of the local linear hazard rate is illustrated in an application to kidney transplant data.     

Smoothed L-estimation of regression function

The Nadaraya-Watson nonparametric estimator of regression is known to be highly sensitive to the presence of outliers in data. This sensitivity can be reduced, for example, by using local L-estimates of regression. Whereas the local L-estimation is traditionally done using an empirical conditional distribution function, we propose to use instead a smoothed conditional distribution function. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator is derived under mild β-mixing conditions, and additionally, we show that the smoothed L-estimation approach provides computational as well as statistical finite-sample improvements. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the modelling of implied volatility.     

Simulation-based two-stage estimation for multiple nonparametric regression

To reduce the curse of dimensionality arising from nonparametric estimation procedures for multiple nonparametric regression, in this paper we suggest a simulation-based two-stage estimation. We first introduce a simulation-based method to decompose the multiple nonparametric regression into two parts. The first part can be estimated with the parametric convergence rate and the second part is small enough so that it can be approximated by orthogonal basis functions with a small trade-off parameter. Then the linear combination of the first and second step estimators results in a two-stage estimator for the multiple regression function. Our method does not need any specified structural assumption on the regression function and it is proved that the newly proposed estimation is always consistent even if the trade-off parameter is designed to be small. Thus when the common nonparametric estimator such as local linear smoothing collapses because of the curse of dimensionality, our estimator still works well.     

A sampling algorithm for bandwidth estimation in a nonparametric regression model with a flexible error density

The unknown error density of a nonparametric regression model is approximated by a mixture of Gaussian densities with means being the individual error realizations and variance a constant parameter. Such a mixture density has the form of a kernel density estimator of error realizations. An approximate likelihood and posterior for bandwidth parameters in the kernel-form error density and the Nadaraya–Watson regression estimator are derived, and a sampling algorithm is developed. A simulation study shows that when the true error density is non-Gaussian, the kernel-form error density is often favored against its parametric counterparts including the correct error density assumption. The proposed approach is demonstrated through a nonparametric regression model of the Australian All Ordinaries daily return on the overnight FTSE and S&P 500 returns. With the estimated bandwidths, the one-day-ahead posterior predictive density of the All Ordinaries return is derived, and a distribution-free value-at-risk is obtained. The proposed algorithm is also applied to a nonparametric regression model involved in state-price density estimation based on S&P 500 options data.     

Small area estimation using a nonparametric model-based direct estimator

Nonparametric regression is widely used as a method of characterizing a non-linear relationship between a variable of interest and a set of covariates. Practical application of nonparametric regression methods in the field of small area estimation is fairly recent, and has so far focussed on the use of empirical best linear unbiased prediction under a model that combines a penalized spline (p-spline) fit and random area effects. The concept of model-based direct estimation is used to develop an alternative nonparametric approach to estimation of a small area mean. The suggested estimator is a weighted average of the sample values from the area, with weights derived from a linear regression model with random area effects extended to incorporate a smooth, nonparametrically specified trend. Estimation of the mean squared error of the proposed small area estimator is also discussed. Monte Carlo simulations based on both simulated and real datasets show that the proposed model-based direct estimator and its associated mean squared error estimator perform well. They are worth considering in small area estimation applications where the underlying population regression relationships are non-linear or have a complicated functional form.     

Conditional mean estimation under asymmetric and heteroscedastic error by linear combination of quantile regressions

In this paper we propose a new estimator for regression problems in the form of the linear combination of quantile regressions. The proposed estimator is helpful for the conditional mean estimation when the error distribution is asymmetric and heteroscedastic.It is shown that the proposed estimator has the consistency under heteroscedastic regression model: Y=μ(X)+σ(X)·e, where X is a vector of covariates, Y is a scalar response, e is a zero mean random variable independent of X and σ(X) is a positive value function. When the error term e is asymmetric, we show that the proposed estimator yields better conditional mean estimation performance than the other estimators. Numerical experiments both in synthetic and real data are shown to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed estimator.     

A kernel-based parametric method for conditional density estimation

A conditional density function, which describes the relationship between response and explanatory variables, plays an important role in many analysis problems. In this paper, we propose a new kernel-based parametric method to estimate conditional density. An exponential function is employed to approximate the unknown density, and its parameters are computed from the given explanatory variable via a nonlinear mapping using kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). We develop a new kernel function, which is a variant to polynomial kernels, to be used in KPCA. The proposed method is compared with the Nadaraya-Watson estimator through numerical simulation and practical data. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the Nadaraya-Watson estimator in terms of revised mean integrated squared error (RMISE). Therefore, the proposed method is an effective method for estimating the conditional densities.     

Quantile regression methods with varying-coefficient models for censored data

Considerable intellectual progress has been made to the development of various semiparametric varying-coefficient models over the past ten to fifteen years. An important advantage of these models is that they avoid much of the curse of dimensionality problem as the nonparametric functions are restricted only to some variables. More recently, varying-coefficient methods have been applied to quantile regression modeling, but all previous studies assume that the data are fully observed. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a varying-coefficient approach to the estimation of regression quantiles under random data censoring. We use a weighted inverse probability approach to account for censoring, and propose a majorize–minimize type algorithm to optimize the non-smooth objective function. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator of the nonparametric functions are studied, and a resampling method is developed for obtaining the estimator of the sampling variance. An important aspect of our method is that it allows the censoring time to depend on the covariates. Additionally, we show that this varying-coefficient procedure can be further improved when implemented within a composite quantile regression framework. Composite quantile regression has recently gained considerable attention due to its ability to combine information across different quantile functions. We assess the finite sample properties of the proposed procedures in simulated studies. A real data application is also considered.     

Neural networks for bandwidth selection in local linear regression of time series

The problem of automatic bandwidth selection in nonparametric regression is considered when a local linear estimator is used to derive nonparametrically the unknown regression function. A plug-in method for choosing the smoothing parameter based on the use of the neural networks is presented. The method applies to dependent data generating processes with nonlinear autoregressive time series representation. The consistency of the method is shown in the paper, and a simulation study is carried out to assess the empirical performance of the procedure.     

Shrinkage estimation in general linear models

We propose a James-Stein-type shrinkage estimator for the parameter vector in a general linear model when it is suspected that some of the parameters may be restricted to a subspace. The James-Stein estimator is shown to demonstrate asymptotically superior risk performance relative to the conventional least squares estimator under quadratic loss. An extensive simulation study based on a multiple linear regression model and a logistic regression model further demonstrates the improved performance of this James-Stein estimator in finite samples. The application of this new estimator is illustrated using Ontario newborn infants data spanning four fiscal years.     

Asymptotically efficient estimation of the conditional expected shortfall

A procedure for efficient estimation of the trimmed mean of a random variable conditional on a set of covariates is proposed. For concreteness, the focus is on a financial application where the trimmed mean of interest corresponds to the conditional expected shortfall, which is known to be a coherent risk measure. The proposed class of estimators is based on representing the estimator as an integral of the conditional quantile function. Relative to the simple analog estimator that weights all conditional quantiles equally, asymptotic efficiency gains may be attained by giving different weights to the different conditional quantiles while penalizing excessive departures from uniform weighting. The approach presented here allows for either parametric or nonparametric modeling of the conditional quantiles and the weights, but is essentially nonparametric in spirit. The asymptotic properties of the proposed class of estimators are established. Their finite sample properties are illustrated through a set of Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application¹.     

Model based bootstrap methods for interval censored data

The performance of model based bootstrap methods for constructing point-wise confidence intervals around the survival function with interval censored data is investigated. It is shown that bootstrapping from the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the survival function is inconsistent for the current status model. A model based smoothed bootstrap procedure is proposed and proved to be consistent. In fact, a general framework for proving the consistency of any model based bootstrap scheme in the current status model is established. In addition, simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the (in)-consistency of different bootstrap methods in mixed case interval censoring. The conclusions in the interval censoring model would extend more generally to estimators in regression models that exhibit non-standard rates of convergence.     

Comparing correlated ROC curves for continuous diagnostic tests under density ratio models

A family of nonparametric statistics to comparing ROC curves for continuous diagnostic tests was proposed by Wieand et al. [Wieand, S., Gail, M.H., James, B.R., James, K.L., 1989. A family of nonparametric statistics for comparing diagnostic markers with paired or unpaired data. Biometrika 76, 585–592]. In this paper, we study the semiparametric counterpart. We propose a two-sample semiparametric bivariate density ratio model, under which new ROC curve estimators are constructed and a family of semiparametric statistics for comparing ROC curves are proposed. We derive the asymptotic results on the newly proposed ROC curve estimators and show that they are more efficient than the nonparametric counterparts. We also show the proposed method for comparing ROC curves is more efficient than the nonparametric counterpart. A simulation study and the analysis of two real examples are also presented.     

The AIC Criterion and Symmetrizing the Kullback–Leibler Divergence

The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is a widely used tool for model selection. AIC is derived as an asymptotically unbiased estimator of a function used for ranking candidate models which is a variant of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true model and the approximating candidate model. Despite the Kullback-Leibler's computational and theoretical advantages, what can become inconvenient in model selection applications is their lack of symmetry. Simple examples can show that reversing the role of the arguments in the Kullback-Leibler divergence can yield substantially different results. In this paper, three new functions for ranking candidate models are proposed. These functions are constructed by symmetrizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true model and the approximating candidate model. The operations used for symmetrizing are the average, geometric, and harmonic means. It is found that the original AIC criterion is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of these three different functions. Using one of these proposed ranking functions, an example of new bias correction to AIC is derived for univariate linear regression models. A simulation study based on polynomial regression is provided to compare the different proposed ranking functions with AIC and the new derived correction with AIC_c     

Variance Estimation in Censored Quantile Regression via Induced Smoothing

Statistical inference in censored quantile regression is challenging, partly due to the unsmoothness of the quantile score function. A new procedure is developed to estimate the variance of the Bang and Tsiatis inverse-censoring-probability weighted estimator for censored quantile regression by employing the idea of induced smoothing. The proposed variance estimator is shown to be asymptotically consistent. In addition, a numerical study suggests that the proposed procedure performs well in finite samples, and it is computationally more efficient than the commonly used bootstrap method.     

MDPE: A Very Robust Estimator for Model Fitting and Range Image Segmentation

In this paper, we propose a novel and highly robust estimator, called MDPE¹ (Maximum Density Power Estimator). This estimator applies nonparametric density estimation and density gradient estimation techniques in parametric estimation (model fitting). MDPE optimizes an objective function that measures more than just the size of the residuals. Both the density distribution of data points in residual space and the size of the residual corresponding to the local maximum of the density distribution, are considered as important characteristics in our objective function. MDPE can tolerate more than 85% outliers. Compared with several other recently proposed similar estimators, MDPE has a higher robustness to outliers and less error variance.We also present a new range image segmentation algorithm, based on a modified version of the MDPE (Quick-MDPE), and its performance is compared to several other segmentation methods. Segmentation requires more than a simple minded application of an estimator, no matter how good that estimator is: our segmentation algorithm overcomes several difficulties faced with applying a statistical estimator to this task.     

Entropy estimation in Turing's perspective

A new nonparametric estimator of Shannon's entropy on a countable alphabet is proposed and analyzed against the well-known plug-in estimator. The proposed estimator is developed based on Turing's formula, which recovers distributional characteristics on the subset of the alphabet not covered by a size-n sample. The fundamental switch in perspective brings about substantial gain in estimation accuracy for every distribution with finite entropy. In general, a uniform variance upper bound is established for the entire class of distributions with finite entropy that decays at a rate of O(ln(n)/n) compared to O([ln(n)]2/n) for the plug-in. In a wide range of subclasses, the variance of the proposed estimator converges at a rate of O(1/n), and this rate of convergence carries over to the convergence rates in mean squared errors in many subclasses. Specifically, for any finite alphabet, the proposed estimator has a bias decaying exponentially in n. Several new bias-adjusted estimators are also discussed.