面向高比例新能源电网的重大耗能企业需求响应调度

随着国家“双碳”重大战略的提出,高比例新能源并网将成为我国电力能源转型的重要态势.针对火电机组、配电网和需求侧关联的系列运行约束制约了电网对高比例新能源的有效消纳这一问题,本文提出重大耗能企业这一主要电力负荷参与网需求响应(Demand response, DR)的研究思路,通过重大耗能企业与电网协调调度促进新能源消纳,并获得经济补偿以减少运行成本.研究首先基于混合需求侧响应机制,提出以重大耗能企业、新能源、火电机组为核心的协调调度方法,并根据新能源预测值-预测误差的信息依存顺序提出了两步调度策略.在此基础上,进行生产过程行为建模以实现重大耗能企业需求侧响应决策描述,并建立高比例新能源并网的重大耗能企业需求响应与电网协调调度优化模型.最后,基于烟台电网实际系统进行算例分析,验证了重大耗能企业通过需求响应参与电网协调调度以及两步调度策略的有效性.     

一种基于ATT&CK的新型电力系统APT攻击建模

以新能源为主体的新型电力系统,新能源与多元负荷形态比例大幅提升。高比例的可再生新能源与电力电子设备的接入以及供给侧和需求侧的随机性,导致电网遭受的攻击面增大,攻击者利用隐蔽和复杂的手段针对新型电力系统发动高级可持续威胁攻击,严重影响电网调度与能源消纳。文章基于ATT&CK知识库建立了面向新型电力系统APT攻击的杀伤链模型,针对传统方法难以将APT攻击技术划分到杀伤链攻击阶段,从而导致安全员无法迅速做出防御决策的情况,提出了一种基于杀伤链模型的APT攻击技术阶段划分方法,并采用Bert模型对技术文本进行语义分析,自动将攻击技术划分到所属阶段。实验结果表明,文章所提方法比现有模型具有更好的效果。     

电力安全生产管理中案例分析的作用探讨

在电力安全生产活动中开展有效管理,需要技术人员制定电力安全生产的整体性解决方案。在大规模新能源电力安全高效利用的过程中,技术人员需要从电源响应、电网响应和负荷响应三个方面,做好电力安全的高效利用。推行电力系统管理方式的创新,需要技术人员提高电路系统的负载强度,从而保障供电活动的稳定进行。本文从电力安全生产管理中的工作细节展开讨论,提出几点有利于电力安全生产管理效率提高的可行性措施。     

多源多变换微电网系统建模与动态稳定分析方法

微电网内部电力电子变换器接口型分布式电源广泛存在.电力电子接口微源具备与传统电力系统电源拓扑结构、控制方法和动态特性的差异性,控制方法的多样性、电力电子接口微源高渗透率将给低惯量微电网的协调控制和安全稳定运行带来严峻的挑战.多类型微源、多类型负荷在微电网内混合共存,可能引发源源耦合交互、负荷间交互以及源荷交互,不同特性的设备间相互作用将重新塑造区别与传统电力系统的动态响应特性,并诱发稳定性问题.本文首先归纳总结可再生能源渗透率不断提升下多源多变换微电网典型运行特性和存在的稳定性问题,详细阐述了含风光柴储多源多变换接口的微电网模块化动态建模方法.在此基础上,给出了用于微电网动态稳定分析的特征值分析方法和基本步骤.以珠海东澳岛多源多变换智能微电网为对象,基于提出的动态建模方法和动态稳定分析方法,给出建模与分析讨论结果.论文对多源多变换微电网系统动态稳定分析方法的论述可为微电网的广泛推广和应用提供建模和分析理论基础.     

贵州高耗能负荷参与电网调峰辅助服务的探索

随着贵州电网能源结构及负荷需求特性的变化,电力系统峰谷差呈现逐步增大的趋势,调峰问题日益突出。为了探索高耗能负荷的调峰响应潜力,研究高能耗行业参与调峰辅助服务的可行性,该文分析了贵州的能源结构及调峰现状,总结了电解铝、水泥和钢铁等几类典型高耗能产业的用电特征。分析表明,贵州负荷侧资源参与电网调峰辅助服务具有很大的潜力。最后,基于贵州电力体制改革和辅助服务市场的实施现状,该文提出了一种适用于高耗能行业参与的调峰辅助服务市场交易体系,规范了交易实施流程和价格机制。该交易体系的实施可实现发电侧和负荷侧双赢的局面,有助于提高负荷侧资源参与调峰的积极性,对调峰权交易市场建设具有一定的指导意义。     

基于需求响应的家庭节电省电优化策略研究

电力需求的日益增长给电网发电及输电环节带来了巨大挑战,配用电网负荷率的增加也给电力系统正常运行带来了安全隐患.运用智能电力需求响应技术,有效整合用户侧电网响应潜力以提升电网运行的安全性、稳定性和经济性值得深入研究.基于智能用电双向交互技术,在满足用户用电要求的基础上,最大限度满足用户舒适度及电网调峰需求为目标,提出了居民侧负荷参与电力需求响应的家庭用电优化方案,重点提出了节电省电控制策略,有负荷转移和负荷调控两种方法,可为家庭提供系统的、全面的省电措施.结合提出的控制策略,基于Matlab平台进行具体仿真,通过波形和数据的分析,详细阐述了需求响应控制策略的要点和价值,也为以后的技术发展提供了数据信息.     

智慧能源-----人工智能技术在电力系统中的应用与展望

在环境污染日趋严重,化石能源逐渐枯竭的背景下,能源系统的发展趋向于清洁化、智能化,我国已将智慧能源的发展提升为国家战略.电力系统作为能源系统的核心环节,应用广泛,具有较强的调节能力且控制复杂,其智能化程度将决定能源系统的智能化水平.伴随着分布式电源、电动汽车、分布式储能元件等具有能源生产、存储、消费多种特性的新型能源终端高比例接入电网,现代电力系统呈现出复杂非线性、强不确定性、强耦合性等特点,传统建模、优化、控制技术存在诸多局限性,人工智能技术将是解决复杂系统控制与决策问题的有效措施.鉴于此,首先梳理人工智能在电力系统应用的发展脉络;然后根据人工智能在电力系统的应用热点领域,阐述人工智能技术在电力系统调度、规划以及电力市场等方面的应用,并对各重点研究内容的未来方向进行展望.     

基于多状态概率模型的新能源消纳能力分析

新能源发电装机规模日益增加,客观评价电网消纳新能源的能力是提高新能源渗透率又保证系统安全稳定运行的重要条件。本文基于新能源联合出力多状态概率模型,考虑系统调峰容量约束,利用新能源装机规模、损失电量及消纳电量在无约束情况下新能源理论可发电量中的占比等指标来综合评估电网的新能源消纳能力,进而提出一种基于多状态概率模型的新能源消纳能力分析方法。对某省2020水平年规划电网新能源消纳能力进行了实例分析,统计历史年新能源出力概率分布,并依据该统计结果求取了风电、光伏联合出力概率分布,利用该省电源、负荷等规划数据测算了系统剩余调峰容量,进而评估了新能源消纳能力,分析了状态数选择对分析结果的影响,验证了所提出方法的正确性和有效性。     

基于SFO算法的智能电网能源优化

为缓解能源危机，新能源逐渐应用于智能电网中，要想实现电网中的能源有效分配及高效的能源管理，提出了基于协同成纤维细胞优化(SFO)的智能电网能量调度方案，以智能电网系统中降低用电成本、最大化利用可再生资源和资源的有效利用为目标，通过详细的算例对实时环境下的用电量进行监测，并对所提调度策略进行仿真，验证了算法的性能。对实验结果的评价表明，与其他流行的算法相比，多目标SFO算法可以显著降低电力成本并最大限度地提高资源利用率，进而提高电力系统的新能源消纳能力。     

山西电网消纳风电能力的计算分析

山西电网风电并网规模不断增大,电力系统的调峰能力已成为消纳风电的主要因素。结合山西省水电贫乏、火电供热机组增多等特点,并考虑负荷特性、电源特性,分析了山西电网的调峰能力和风电对电网调峰能力的影响,提出了山西电网消纳风电能力的计算方法。在收集各种实际运行数据的基础上,通过计算分析,得到了山西电网消纳风电能力容量范围,并据此提出了电网运行控制措施。通过实践运行,证明此计算分析方法基本正确,达到了提高电网消纳能力的目的。     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计及其仿真实现

为了设计一种具有低成本、低功耗、易操作、功能强且可靠性高的煤矿井下安全分站,针对煤矿安全生产实际,文章提出了采用MCS-51系列单片机为核心、具有CAN总线通信接口的煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计方案;首先给出煤矿井下安全监控分站的整体构架设计,然后着重阐述模拟量输入信号处理系统的设计过程,最后说明单片机最小系统及其键盘、显示、报警、通信等各个组成部分的设计;为验证设计方案的可行性与有效性,使用Proteus软件对设计内容进行仿真验证,设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有瓦斯、温度等模拟量参数超标报警功能和电机开停、风门开闭等开关量指示功能;仿真结果表明:设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有一定的实际应用价值.     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。     

How do children do mathematics with LOGO?

Abstract  This paper considers some results of a study designed to investigate the kinds of mathematical activity undertaken by children (aged between 8 and 11) as they learned to program in LOGO. A model of learning modes is proposed, which attempts to describe the ways in which children used and acquired understanding of the programming/mathematical concepts involved. The remainder of the paper is concerned with discussing the validity and limitations of the model, and its implications for further research and curriculum development.     

Editorial: Special issue on recent advances in hybrid control theory and applications

正The demands of a rapidly advancing technology for faster and more accurate controllers have always had a strong influence on the progress of automatic control theory.In recent years control problems have been arising with increasing frequency in widely different areas,which cannot be addressed using conventional control techniques.The principal reason for this is the fact that a highly competitive economy is forcing systems to operate in regimes where     

Information for Authors

正Aim The Journals of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE(A/B/C)areedited by the international board of distinguished Chinese andforeign scientists,and are aimed to present the latest devel-opments and achievements in scientific research in China andoverseas to the world’s scientific circles,especially to stimulateand promote academic exchange between Chinese and for-eign scientists everywhere.     

View-based model-driven architecture for enhancing maintainability of data access services

In modern service-oriented architectures, database access is done by a special type of services, the so-called data access services (DAS). Though, particularly in data-intensive applications, using and developing DAS are very common today, the link between the DAS and their implementation, e.g. a layer of data access objects (DAOs) encapsulating the database queries, still is not sufficiently elaborated, yet. As a result, as the number of DAS grows, finding the desired DAS for reuse and/or associated documentation can become an impossible task. In this paper we focus on bridging this gap between the DAS and their implementation by presenting a view-based, model-driven data access architecture (VMDA) managing models of the DAS, DAOs and database queries in a queryable manner. Our models support tailored views of different stakeholders and are scalable with all types of DAS implementations. In this paper we show that our view-based and model driven architecture approach can enhance software development productivity and maintainability by improving DAS documentation. Moreover, our VMDA opens a wide range of applications such as evaluating DAS usage for DAS performance optimization. Furthermore, we provide tool support and illustrate the applicability of our VMDA in a large-scale case study. Finally, we quantitatively prove that our approach performs with acceptable response times.