基于随机森林非侵入式负荷分解的地区居民需求响应能力评估

需求响应在缓解供电不足、促进新能源消纳以及节约发电侧的资源投资方面意义重大,而需求响应能力评估可以为需求响应策略的制定提供依据。为解决需求响应能力评估困难的问题,本文提出一种基于非侵入式负荷分解的地区居民响应能力评估的方法。首先建立基于随机森林算法的非侵入式负荷分解模型,再使用该模型针对性的分解出单个用户的可中断负荷,然后基于可中断负荷的用电情况计算出单个用户在各个时刻的响应能力,最后再将区域内的所有用户聚合即可得到地区居民总的响应能力。在真实数据集上进行验证,结果表明所提出的基于随机森林非侵入式负荷分解模型可以更精确的得到用户可中断负荷的有功功率值,地区有功功率聚合误差也更小,可以较好的进行需求响应能力评估。     

实施可中断负荷的经济效益分析

可中断负荷在系统高峰时可以转移负荷,减少能源消耗和系统备用需求。以最优潮流为基础,用原对偶内点法求得考虑可中断负荷的边际成本,从而分析实施可中断负荷的经济效益。     

Toward Compositional Verification of Interruptible OS Kernels and Device Drivers

An operating system (OS) kernel forms the lowest level of any system software stack. The correctness of the OS kernel is the basis for the correctness of the entire system. Recent efforts have demonstrated the feasibility of building formally verified general-purpose kernels, but it is unclear how to extend their work to verify the functional correctness of device drivers, due to the non-local effects of interrupts. In this paper, we present a novel compositional framework for building certified interruptible OS kernels with device drivers. We provide a general device model that can be instantiated with various hardware devices, and a realistic formal model of interrupts, which can be used to reason about interruptible code. We have realized this framework in the Coq proof assistant. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our new approach, we have successfully extended an existing verified non-interruptible kernel with our framework and turned it into an interruptible kernel with verified device drivers. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first verified interruptible operating system with device drivers.     

From qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios: Translating storylines into biophysical modeling inputs at the watershed scale

Scenarios are increasingly used for envisioning future social-ecological changes and consequences for human well-being. One approach integrates qualitative storylines and biophysical models to explore potential futures quantitatively and maximize public engagement. However, this integration process is challenging and sometimes oversimplified. Using the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) as a case study, we present a transparent and reproducible roadmap to develop spatiotemporally explicit biophysical inputs [climate, land use/cover (LULC), and nutrients] that are consistent with scenario narratives and can be linked to a process-based biophysical modeling suite to simulate long-term dynamics of a watershed and a range of ecosystem services. Our transferrable approach produces daily weather inputs by combining climate model projections and a stochastic weather generator, annual narrative-based watershed-scale LULC distributed spatially using transition rules, and annual manure and fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) inputs based on current farm and livestock data that are consistent with each scenario narrative.     

Adversary Aware Surveillance Systems

We consider surveillance problems to be a set of system-adversary interaction problems in which an adversary can be modeled as a rational (selfish) agent trying to maximize his utility. We feel that appropriate adversary modeling can provide deep insights into the system performance and also clues for optimizing the system's performance against the adversary. Further, we propose that system designers should exploit the fact that they can impose certain restrictions on the intruders and the way they interact with the system. The system designers can analyze the scenario to determine conditions under which system outperforms the adversaries, and then suitably reengineer the environment under a “scenario engineering” approach to help the system outperform the adversary. We study the proposed enhancements using a game theoretic framework and present results of their adaptation to two significantly different surveillance scenarios. While the precise enforcements for the studied zero-sum ATM lobby monitoring scenario and the nonzero-sum traffic monitoring scenario were different, they lead to some useful generic guidelines for surveillance system designers.      

SD-GIS-based temporal-spatial simulation of water quality in sudden water pollution accidents

System dynamics (SD) is well suited for studying dynamic nonlinear complex systems. In this paper, SD is applied to a rapid-onset water pollution accident using a 1-D water quality model and a conceptual GIS-SD framework is constructed to simulate the temporal-spatial changes of pollutant concentration. Based on the component GIS and the SD model, a prototype system of water quality simulation in water pollution accidents is developed. The data collected on the spot in the Songhua River water pollution accident in November 2005 were used for model parameter calibration and model validation. The results showed that: (1) the constructed model could simulate the changes of nitrobenzene concentration with time in the Songhua River water pollution accident, especially during the peak concentration and at the arrival time of peak concentration, and that the simulated values and the on-the-spot monitored values corresponded with each other well; (2) the scenario simulation could be made by adjusting parameters u (longitudinal current velocity), E (longitudinal diffusion coefficient), and k (decay rate coefficient). Such a model can provide decision makers with quantitative information to optimize related emergency response measures.     

Optimized product data transmission in LOD-based collaborative design using P2P CAD streaming

This paper concerns product data transmission in networked design collaboration using P2P (peer-to-peer) CAD streaming. A heuristics-based scheme is proposed to optimize the transmission efficiency among multiple users. It allows a collaborator to quickly acquire a meshed CAD model of some LOD (level of detail) by aggregating data fragments from the other collaborators, who possess different LODs. The requesting collaborator will be receiving the model incrementally from a coarse representation to a finer one through a sequence of LODs. The transmission tasks are scheduled with a multi-queue method so as to maximize the network utilization. A scenario of collaborative design demonstrates how the proposed scheme facilitates distribution of product data in consideration of complex collaboration relationships.     

Development of optimal water supply plan using integrated fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy ELECTRE III methods—Case study of the Gamasiab basin

This paper presents a novel method for the development of an optimal water supply plan showcased using data from the Gamasiab basin, located in Kermanshah province, Iran, concerning new dams that are being constructed in this semi-arid region. In this paper, a new group multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) plan is proposed by combining two MCDM methods based on the fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy ELECTRE III methods that convert the experts' opinions to triangular fuzzy numbers based on the level of uncertainty associated with various quantitative and qualitative criteria. Considering the opinions of four non-stakeholder experts and data analysis using the fuzzy Delphi method, the criteria were evaluated. Then, by analysing the results using the fuzzy ELECTRE III method, the final ranking of scenarios is obtained. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effect of uncertainty on the performance of the decision-making system in scenarios ranking. The total expense, flood control, reservoir capacity and diversion and water transfer played a significant role in selecting the optimal scenario. Additionally, a hydrologic model was developed to evaluate the performance of the optimal scenario in terms of qualitative criteria. The data indicated that there was a good agreement between the results obtained from the hydrological model and the scenario ranking by the employed method. Altogether, a comparison of the proposed method with other MCDM methods, including fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy technique for order preference by simulation of ideal solution, indicated that the results of the employed method matched more closely to the local experts' opinion.     

A knowledge-based simulation environment for hierarchical flexiblemanufacturing

This article presents an approach to embedding expert systems within an object oriented simulation environment. The basic idea is to create classes of expert system models that can be interfaced with other model classes. An expert system shell is developed within a knowledge-based design and simulation environment which combines artificial intelligence and systems modeling concepts. In the given framework, interruptible and distributed expert systems can be defined as components of simulations models. This facilitates simulation modeling of knowledge-based controls for flexible manufacturing and many other autonomous intelligent systems. Moreover, the structure of a system can be specified using a recursive system entity structure (SES) and unfolded to generate a family of hierarchical structures using an extension of SES pruning called recursive pruning. This recursive generation of hierarchical structures is especially appropriate for design of multilevel flexible factories. The article illustrates the utility of the proposed framework within the flexible manufacturing context     

OFDMA认知无线电网络中面向功率控制的频谱定价与分配

针对OFDMA认知无线电网络,提出一种基于Stackelberg博弈的频谱定价和分配模型.对于次基站控制次网络传输功率来保护主网络通信的场景,主基站可通过该模型获得最优的频谱定价方案.从功率控制的角度,重新设计次用户的效用函数,运用Stackelberg博弈对单个主基站和多个次用户在频谱租赁市场中的交易行为进行建模.通过逆向归纳法,求解市场均衡下的最优频谱定价,使得主基站在考虑主网络QoS降级的同时获得最大收益.此外,对于主基站只能获取本地信息的情形,提出了基于动态Stackelberg博弈的分布式频谱定价和分配模型.仿真实验表明,该模型能够在控制次网络传输功率的基础上,提供最优频谱定价和频谱分配方案.