基于案例推理的竖炉故障预报系统

为降低竖望炉焙烧过程的故障发生率,基于故障机理的分析,将过程参量预报与案例推理技术相集成,提出了竖炉焙烧过程的智能故障预报方法.参量量预报模型对不易在线连续测量但能反映故障征兆的关键工艺参数进行实时预报,在此基础上,采用案例推理技术对焙烧过程进行全面分析并给出一些典型故障发生的概率和操作指导.将所建立的故障预报系统成功应用于竖炉焙烧过程的生产实际中,故障发生率明显降低,取得了显著应用成效.     

建筑供热负荷预报与预测控制策略研究

基于建筑供热节能需要和供热对象的特点,提出了供热负荷预报及对供热过程施加预测控制策略.根据时间序列分析原理,对供热负荷进行节能预报并作为预测控制的设定值.为满足实时性的要求,根据供热对象的特性对预测模型进行简化,给出了用预报误差校正代替误差校正的预测控制算法.最后对供热系统进行相关算法的仿真,其结果证明了该方法的有效性.     

微震监测技术在顶板来压预测预报中的应用

介绍了微震监测系统在千秋煤矿预测预报顶板来压中的应用情况。实践结果表明,微震监测系统可实现对综放工作面老顶初次来压的预测判断;微震监测与日常钻屑量监测、矿压监测等数据较为一致,采用综合性的冲击地压预测预报技术能更有效地对采场动力灾害进行预测预报;用大能量事件频次作为微震监测系统的有效参数可较准确地对采场动力现象进行预测预报,并总结出顶板来压的前兆信息模式,该项结论能有效预防采场动力现象和冲击地压事故的发生。     

钻井ERP物料基础信息管理系统的设计与实现

钻井企业物料库存量大、种类多、价值高,使得钻井物料管理难度大、成本高。钻井ERP物料基础信息管理系统对钻井过程中物料数据特性及物料关系进行了研究,采用ERP物料基础信息的管理思想和面向对象设计的方法,基于．NET技术与C#技术,设计实现了一个钻井ERP物料基础信息管理系统．并给出了系统的面向对象分析设计模型和系统组成模块。钻井ERP物料基础信息管理系统的应用,能对钻井物料进行有效地管理,并为钻井ERP系统的实施奠定了基础。     

基于信息融合的煤层自然发火监测系统研究

针对目前我国在矿井火灾预警系统检测处理数据不可靠等问题,以单片机作为中央处理器,基于模糊信息融合理论,应用多传感器对煤层自然发火的指标气体和参量进行监测,将监测设备的多只传感器所获得的信息模糊化,再将其融合,从而获取设备精确的状态估计。该系统利用信息融合技术对各种参量进行融合运算和决策,实现了煤层自然发火的早期预测预报,实验结果表明：基于信息融合的煤矿火灾预警系统识别准确率与可靠性大大提高。     

基于大数据分析的移动对象轨迹预测方法

对移动对象的轨迹预测将在移动目标跟踪识别中具有较好的应用价值。移动对象轨迹预测的基础是移动目标运动参量的采集和估计,移动目标的运动参量信息特征规模较大,传统的单分量时间序列分析方法难以实现准确的参量估计和轨迹预测。提出一种基于大数据多传感信息融合跟踪的移动对象轨迹预测算法。首先进行移动目标对象进行轨迹跟踪的控制对象描述和约束参量分析,对轨迹预测的大规模运动参量信息进行信息融合和自正整定性控制,通过大数据分析方法实现对移动对象运动参量的准确估计和检测,由此指导移动对象轨迹的准确预测,提高预测精度。仿真结果表明,采用该算法进行移动对象的运动参量估计和轨迹预测的精度较高,自适应性能较强,稳健性较好,相关的指标性能优于传统方法。     

滩海地区油气层保护分析预测软件的设计与实现

描述了关于滩海地区“油气层保护”的综合分析方法及分析预测软件的设计与实现。应用模式识别等技术来分析预测钻井过程中新井油气层污染程度和原因及影响因素 ,建立了相关数学模型 ,并开发了配套软件。目前该技术已在油田中得到应用     

科技消息

<正> 会议宣读并研讨了火灾预测预报、安全监测监控、地区监测等方而的论文共33篇。我国代表团宣读了“煤矿监控系统的多文种兼容技术”、“煤矿火灾预测预报的应用和开发前景”、“矿     

钻井工程智能化软件系统设计

本文着重描述了钻井工程智能化软件系统设计的基本结构、功能设计和系统设计。本系统以数据库管理、计算机仿真、人工智能和专家系统新技术为主要工具，通过仿真试验预测并及时发现钻井过程中可能出现的事故，通过专家系统诊断和处理钻井过程中出现的复杂情况或事故，最终达到节约钻井成本、保证钻井安全的目的。     

基于分层模糊推理的石油钻井事故预警系统

为解决石油钻井事故预警中事故类型多、传感器参数多、主判参数不明确等困难,提出了基于分层模糊推理的石油钻井事故预警方法并进行了系统开发.该系统首先对采集的原始数据进行整理和滤波,在此基础上,进行阈值提取与逻辑计算,然后采用"增一型"分层模糊模型进行推理.该系统解决了在多维模糊推理中因输入参数众多而造成的推理规则数爆炸的典型维数灾问题,经实验室仿真和现场实验表明,该系统可准确、及时预报石油钻井事故.     

地面防喷器控制装置远控系统的研制与应用

电控气型地面防喷器控制装置远控系统采用先进的SIEMENS S7-300系列PLC和PROFIBUS总线技术,使得地面防喷器控制装置对防喷器的控制时间大大缩短,提高了整个控制系统的安全、可靠性;通过电气按钮实现对防喷器的控制,通过增加声、光报警系统、控制状态指示灯、压力显示数码管,提高了作业人员的可操作性,使得整个控制系统更加人性化。     

井涌井漏监测系统设计

在石油勘探开发中,尤其随着欠平衡钻井的推广应用,通过钻井液池相应参数的监测,可指导钻井作业快速、安全、有效地进行。系统采用友好的人机界面,通过对钻井液池出入口密度、温度、电导率、硫化氢气体含量及钻井液总体积的实时测量。可有效地监测各参数的变化,判断可能出现的井漏,井喷等异常工况,并具有报警及历史数据查询等功能。系统宜于井队配备,可与综合录井仪系统无缝连接,实现数据共享;更适于无综合录井仪系统情况下,井队独自完成对井涌井漏的监测。     

新型闸板防喷器封井过程数值模拟

介绍在石油钻井行业中一种新型防喷器--可变径闸板防喷器的结构和工作原理通过MSC Marc软件建立有限元模型,模拟可变径闸板防喷器的工作过程,对应力的分布和变化进行分析,探讨产生破坏的原因,为深入理解其工作机理,完善结构设计提供依据.     

Analysis of Chaotic Synchronization Stability and Its Application to a Two-dimensional Advertising Competing Model

A class of map in which chaotic synchronization can occur is defined. The transverse Lyapunov exponents are used to determine the stability of synchronized trajectories. Some complex phenomena closely related to chaotic synchronization, namely riddled basin, riddling bifurcation and blowout bifurcation are theoretically analyzed. Riddling bifurcation and blowout bifurcation may change the synchronization stability of the system. And two types of riddled basins, i.e., global riddled basin and local riddled basin, may come into being after riddling bifurcation. An advertising competing model based on Vidale-Wolfe model is proposed and analyzed by the above theories at the end of the paper.     

混沌同步稳定性分析及在一个二维广告竞争模型中的应用

A class of map in which chaotic synchronization can occur is defined. The transverse Lyapunov exponents are used to determine the stability of synchronized trajectories. Some complex phenomena closely related to chaotic synchronization, namely riddled basin, riddling bifurcation and blowout bifurcation are theoretically analyzed. Riddling bifurcation and blowout bifurcation may change the synchronization stability of the system. And two types of riddled basins, i.e., global riddled basin and local riddled basin, may come into being after riddling bifurcation. An advertising competing model based on Vidale-Wolfe model is proposed and analyzed by the above theories at the end of the paper.     

Two-time correlation functions of a two-level system influenced by a composite environment

To study the quantum regression theorem and the Leggett–Garg inequality, two-time correlation functions are calculated for a two-level system which is placed under the influence of a composite environment consisting of two subsystems. Two different configurations, I and II, are considered. In the configuration I, a two-level system of interest interacts with a thermal reservoir via another two-level system. In the configuration II, a relevant two-level system is influenced independently by another two-level system and a thermal reservoir. In both configurations, the thermal reservoir is assumed to have a sufficiently short correlation time. When an interacting nuclear-spin and electron-spin system is considered, the relevant system is a nuclear-spin (electron-spin) in the configuration I (II). It is shown that the quantum regression theorem for the relevant two-level system is always valid in the configuration II while it is not in the configuration I, regardless of whether the reduced time evolution is Markovian or not. Furthermore, it is found that the Leggett–Garg inequality can be violated in both configurations. The dependence of the violation on the parameters characterizing the open two-level system is investigated.     

Real time supervision for a hybrid renewable power system emulator

This paper is focused on the design and the implementation of a hybrid PV-wind power system with batteries. It aims to emulate the behavior of a hybrid power system in order to face load consumption variations. Final system includes relevant contributions such as quality of emulator (a large number of parameters are considered); capacity to study various impacts simultaneously, a fast dynamic and a set of experimental tests that have been achieved and validated with a test bench. Moreover, a relevant supervision strategy based on currents control and batteries State Of Charge (SOC) estimation has been successfully performed despite simplicity of converter controls.     

A multicompartment model for open-loop control of glucose in insulin-dependent diabetics

This paper describes a model that has been developed for individually adjusted therapy management in insulin-dependent diabetics. The multicompartment model considers all relevant aspects of glucose kinetics and its dependence on insulin. The structure of the model reflects that of the physiological system. Its parameters can be classified into (a) general parameters that are independent of the individual, (b) classifying parameters that are related systematically to the individual, and (c) distinguishing parameters. Classifying parameters allow a very convenient adjustment to relevant features of the individual like sex, age, body weight and length. The model can be employed in open-loop control for the calculation of insulin dosages. It allows the prediction of the system's behaviour as well as the consideration of predictable disturbance variables, e.g. food intake and physical exercise.     

软件框架可变性的度量方法

借鉴用设计模式分析软件变更的基本方法,提出度量变更之间影响程度的标量。利用矩阵工具从变更的深度和广度2个维度对软件框架变更间的相互影响进行分析,初步探讨井喷现象。提出度量软件框架可变性的2个指标,给出软件框架调整的优先次序。实验结果表明,提出的指标可以有效地反映软件框架的可变性。     

The computation of lyapunov exponents via spatial integration with application to blowout bifurcations

We propose a new method for the numerical approximation of the largest Lyapunov exponent. This method is based on the computation of a spatial average with respect to an underlying (natural) invariant measure rather than on a long-term simulation of the dynamical system. This approach is particularly advantageous for the detection of blowout bifurcations of a synchronous chaotic state, and we illustrate this fact for a system of two coupled Duffing oscillators.